Topic: BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now! - page 14. (Read 24657 times)

I am not sure it's on the bottom at the moment, people are assuming that it's China only. However, there are a lot more factors involved which are bringing up or down such as (current):

On the negative side:
1) Starting with MTGOX, I think we all know the story which brought it down almost to half.
2) Chinese government preventing it's banks from using Bitcoins etc.
3) A state in America banning Bitcoin transactions in wine-trading due to younger age etc.
4) Boris Johnson (UK) announcing that the currency is untraceable and used in all sorts of criminal activities when abroad etc.
5) Google removing some apps (screen savers) after discovering they have malware to do BTC mining.
6) Amazon not wanting to use it due to huge fluctuations in the US/BTC rate when interviewed.

On the positive side:
1) MTGOX's story about the currency being vulnerable to forging seems to have no real base, some speculations of; most likely he took-off with the money and filed for bankruptcy...
2) Banks in the US introducing the first BTC machine to use it publicly.
3) Some worldwide stores and traders are starting to accept BTC.

Now, theories that might be said to take it "really" down or cause havoc:
1) What if MTGOX theory of someone forging a BTC (i.e. copying it to many or something) is actually correct?!... Just imagine someone pumping BTCs into the market to dry out USDs?!..
2) What if another government decided to ban the use of it just like what China did?
3) What if China decided to "Oh you know what!?... We LOVE BTCs, who said anything about Banning?! "...
4) What if China have decided to make it's own BTC instead?!... I know... long shot, but what it?!...
5) Litecoin around the corner growing up ?!...

Anyway, please don't think that after this downturn that things are going to be hunky-dory,.. there is a lot  going on at the moment and yet nobody knows the future for sure.

Stay wise, that's all I would do for now... Or, use the force Luke... 

Regards
Heider

I agree with that. $5 (on the way up) was when it was obvious that downtrend is broken / it consolidated there for quite a while / so that was a good place to buy, risky it was at $2-3. So the safest time to buy now would be on a way up, at about $800, however I do believe we are near a bottom and do not really care if there's much downside left yet or not, so why not buy double of what I'd buy at 800, right.

If you read any small print on any type of investment, there is one thing you will notice. PAST HISTORY DOES NOT IMPLY FUTURE PROSPECTS.

It does not matter what the price was and so on, what matters is how its weighing up right now. This crazy ass Chinese commi crap has to end before we see any stable direction on either side. It is bottom heavy at this time.

Why do you guys keep talking about market cap?? And I'm not mocking anyone, it's just I can't see this term's utility in Bitcoin. We can trade 100 coins for 1000 USD daily, that doesn't mean the market cap is 12 Billion.

6 Billion is a very small market cap... that is all, think about it.

When we're talking about such huge numbers in increases  I don't see what the point is in in jumping the gun and buying early into a downtrend, rather than waiting till the downtrend reverses and confirms into an uptrend.  Let's take the increase from $5 (pre bottom) to $6(post bottom). You could have bought either which then increases to $1000. Does it really make a difference whether you bought at $5 or $6? The difference is that at $5 you were buying into a downtrend and then $6 came 6 months later after a reversal was confirmed and at $6 you are buying into an uptrend. So you paid an extra $1 to get security and immediate returns with your investment. Meanwhile, you gain 6 months to use your captital in some other crazy investment, potentially increasing it 10 times, so you can buy 10 times more coins when you're done.

Well apart from all the shouting he is actually right / conservative. Most people who know what is bitcoin agree that we are sitting on a rocket now. Buying coin now is just as smart  of a move as buying them at $5 in 2012 and $100 in $2013.

I want what you are smoking.

Judging what I've seen yesterday, I will give it another 1.5 hours before I decide to buy,.

... great time to have a shower

BITCOIN IS BELOW ITS LONG TERM TRENDLINE. THIS IS BUY TIME

IT WAS BUY TIME EVEN AT $1000 BECAUSE IT HAS SUCH A STRONG TREND THAT IT WAS WORTH OVERPAYING(TO GET A POSITION)

NOW IT IS MONTHS BELOW WHERE IT SHOULD BE(Should be ~$650 right now, rising at .6% a day). AKA FUCKING AWESOME TIME TO BUY.




Here are the price details of VWAP:

Dec 1 2013 $280
Jan 1 2014 $336
Feb 1 $402
March 1 $483
April 1 $580
May 1 $694
June 1 $835
July 1 $1002
Aug 1 $1202
Sept 1 $1442
Oct 1 $1730
Nov 1 2077
Dec 1 $2493
Jan 1 2015 - $2991

ATH $1125 to be reached on July 23

Here you go...
 
... a perfect example of someone who have no idea what's they're talking about 

Enjoy your day mate!

Cheers
Heider

This wave does seem a little 'stronger' and closer to the bottom than the previous one,  because more volume is being done by USD exchanges in the upper channel of the downtrend than there was in the last wave. Someone is accumulating early, expecting the next bottom to be the final bottom.

Until something outstanding happens, I think the op is right. This 450 looks like another drop before the next drop to sub 400. We went all the way down from 800 to 750 to 690 to 666 to 580 to 520 to 490 and so on... Slowly and painfully.

I hope I wrong but I don't see any light in the dark at the moment :/

Way to just throw your money away.

Did you know that it takes a 200% profit to break even on a 50% loss?
Something to think about!
It grows exponentially too

Why are you toe raggs even here

Seriously ChatRoulette is the place for you guys...

The fad phase of the past three years is over and bitcoin's price should unwind to nearly $0.

1. Intrinsic value is worth next to nothing, possibly not even pennies.  Buffett's right - Bitcoin is no more than a decentralized money order with the added drawback of long-term capital gains tax on any price fluctuation.
2. Price is supported 99.9% by speculation, 0.01% by intrinsic value.  People using bitcoin for its intended purpose are in the minority.
3. Most speculators are still long coins and haven't capitulated yet.  There's MASSIVE bearish downside potential from all of the longs who haven't seen a really big bear market yet.
4. Price catalysts are exhausted.  Virtually all potential early adopters with capital have put their money in already.  There's not a constant flow of fresh capital to sustain a bubble doubling every 6 months, so some sort of unwinding down to intrinsic value ($0.01 per coin) is more likely to occur than not.
5. Downtrend has sustained momentum for 5 months.  The current bear market has beaten all previous price collapses, which rallied after 3 months and showed decreased momentum after 1-2 months and a sudden, sharp rally at the 3rd month.  In more general terms, "this time IS different."  In percentage terms, the current collapse is accelerating.
6. Media attention rallied the price after all of the other bear markets due to drawing in more early adopters, but this time it's generally causing longs to lose interest and sell since the early-adopter well has dried up and the mainstream definitely isn't going to use bitcoin.

Disclosure: I don't own bitcoin!  Just saying it like it is!!

Why not quadrillionaires? No need to be excessively bearish

They would already have been billionaires if they were so smart to begin with. lol!

So you have some opinion of bitcoin reaching some ridiculously high price in the future based on some lofty speculations. Great for you. That STILL doesn't mean you have to gamble with your money in the present trend. If you simply wait until the 1W MACD crosses up and buy then, you will most likely perform much better than you are doing with your attempts to try to 'average down' or guesstimate the bottom. Right now 1W EMAs are at 500/535 and declining, meaning it wont get above those levels without a 1W MACD cross. There's a small chance that 1W MACD will perform just a little bit more poorly than your strategy but in in that case it would be a negligible amount and you wont be left behind by any means. As an added bonus, you will be removing yourself from the risk of total loss if there is some catastrophic event with bitcoin in the meantime, and you be able to keep your capital to make profit on other trades before the signal is given.

The ones who are buying and holding now will be trillionaires shortly