The lines have crossed and the drop to next level is coming along. I would strongly advice peeps to drop their load right about now while you got a chance.
I am not happy saying the above but that's what its about and a sincere shout out to homies~
The reality is that if EVERYONE thought the price would go to $100, then the price would already be at $100. The current price IS what the traders feel is reasonable.
Passionsurf, you are absolutely right. This is who markets work, and Bitcoin is, I guess, primarily motivated by people sentiment. There is no money flow as in fiat currencies, no inflation-connected threads as with fiat currencies, no interest rates that are the primary driver of international capital.
Forget about predicting Bitcoin long term price with the use of technical analysis, especially indicators. I’ve been trading Forex since 2008 and got a bit of experience in different market conditions. I am not saying I’m a know-it-all, but I can surely tell that technical analysis is mostly outdated. Think about it, TA was developed (evolved significantly) in the XX century, and at the end of the 90’s was popular among traders who looked at the charts in the same way, because they used the same tools of analysis. Same tools=same opinion, so it was enough for one of those traders to pull the trigger earlier than others, and as others saw that an expected move is starting to happen, they joined in, contributing to a further unwinding of that price move. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trading at that time was easy, as traders shared the opinions, if they saw x (e.g. head and shoulders formation), they expected a specific market reaction at the right-side shoulder of that formation. And so on. As computers stepped into average households and brokerage firms spotted a new market for individual traders, they developed easy access for the masses. And this is where things got complicated. A further growth of technology (computer algorithms, automated trading, HFT) contributed to a further complication of a market that in the past was quite simple. Another factor that I will not discuss is the mess made by all kinds of government interventions, QE both in the US and Europe. As a result of those factors combined, long-term price prediction on the basis of TA is not an easy task (*price prediction with high accuracy, I should add).
If a market guru is 50% of the time right, he is really market crap. Keep in mind one thing about market gurus, if he makes a claim in the past and market actually does what he said it would, then he is a guru, newspapers write about him, blablabla, but nobody remembers about the other “gurus” who were wrong. It is enough that one of the self-proclaimed gurus says “it’s gonna go up” and the other says “it’s gonna go down”, both of them have an equal chance of becoming a “guru” in the future, cause the price will either go up or down, as simple as that, and nobody will remember the other “guru” who was wrong.
Technical analysis with a satisfying accuracy level is only possible in short term, I trade intraday, using indicators and some common sense (plus fundamentals as they support market sentiment), and I would never even think of touching longer term trades. I’ve seen too many people try and fail, or try, manage to do it for some time, and fail as they thought that they CAN do it (you can imagine that as they started feeling confident with their analysis they started trading with higher stakes…).
With regard to Bitcoin, I strongly believe that it will behave similarly to markets in the 80’s and 90’s, where price movement was created by traders themselves. Bitcoin market is similar. People believe that it should go up, and make it go up. Then they are afraid that it will loose value, so they start selling, contributing to the downward movement. Same as with stocks. Of course some bad news (fundamentals) contribute to the panic setting in, news like China bank warnings and bans, exchanges bankruptcies, security issues. If people understand that they are the ones creating the price and its movement, Bitcoin price will have the chance to go up to 10k USD.
I am in favour of further Bitcoin increase in value and I hope that there won't be too much shouting for it to drop down.
