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Topic: BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why. (Read 879 times)

member
Activity: 322
Merit: 43



About Bitcoin, it's also worth looking at this graph.

If we consider that Bitcoin price could overtake $4250 to go close to $5000, then it's a possibility to take into consideration a bearish trend.

RSI (in H4) is down to 40...
sr. member
Activity: 826
Merit: 265
If you are not rushing to buy bitcoin then i will assure you the bitterness feeling when the bull or even a middle growth happen,because the value of bitcin as of today is something we must be rushed to buy,sitting at below $4,000 is a not normal situation ,so if i were you better tk purchase now or be late in the run.
jr. member
Activity: 262
Merit: 2
This year's crypto users are forced to hold and if you sell now then a big loss for you and this is not wanted by everyone. price reduction charts continue to occur because many users are already frustrated and they only sell not buy back, the market becomes unbalanced where the selling volume is greater than the purchases that occur and this keeps prices down. the end of 2019 is the beginning of a big jump in my opinion for crypto to be better
legendary
Activity: 3136
Merit: 1122
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Look the price of the bitcoin again it rising again and to those people who said bitcoin will not up just look and up the price will increasing slowly I think until they fully recover and until it will become better the value in the highest price in the year 2017.

In those moments we have to have patience and observe the market and not panic and I also saw many comments from people saying that the price would fall to  $1500, I was also one of these people, however I still think it is possible to fall to that level to unless the price increases to more than $ 6000

We have nasdaq working on a new ETF, we have SEC working on deciding on the ETF and we have Bakkt hoping to provide another, we have bank of america doing patents like crazy and we have wall street banks investing into crypto companies as well and we have been at a higher price than any price in crypto history except last 1.5 year.

BAKKT is the only one on this list that we have to put more hope because the others are still fairy tales

Of course to recover bitcoin can not be in the near term, bitcoin will take a long time to recover, and from that we must have patience and keep holding to get better results than bitcoin.

I agree
hero member
Activity: 1246
Merit: 529
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Look the price of the bitcoin again it rising again and to those people who said bitcoin will not up just look and up the price will increasing slowly I think until they fully recover and until it will become better the value in the highest price in the year 2017.

Dude control yourself. We're not even back 1k up at this point. Stop expecting magical bull runs to happen again anytime soon. I guess the best solution for disappointments is to be realistic.
sr. member
Activity: 1274
Merit: 263
Look the price of the bitcoin again it rising again and to those people who said bitcoin will not up just look and up the price will increasing slowly I think until they fully recover and until it will become better the value in the highest price in the year 2017.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1025
How can there be a chart like this when everyone used the same chart for 2008 crisis and when stock markets fell in 2008 and everyone thought the market wouldn't recovered but right now bigger than it used to be ? I mean we are talking about a time period where people are really in big trouble and somehow managed to get back on their feet.

Crypto is bigger than stocks of just one country and will eventually pass those as the main investment method of the world however somehow people still think whenever there is a big rise they believe its a suckers rally.

One day bitcoin will go up again and we will see a bigger than $20k price and when that day comes everyone will realize how big of a mistake they did by not trusting bitcoin and crypto. This is a world changing system that needs to be supported by everyone.
full member
Activity: 714
Merit: 103
Am I the only one who does not follow that cycle? I really don't get anxious or depressed depending on the price of bitcoin.  Why would that matter to me? I think in terms of decades not daily valuation.
it seems we have the same thoughts, in my opinion the price of bitcoin is increasing not because of cycles but because of news and investor confidence. so in my opinion the price of bitcoin is increasing not because of a certain period of time.
member
Activity: 434
Merit: 10
In my own perception no one can say what exactly will happen in the coming days because all things in the future are not predictable even the price of crypto because we cannot say that the mind set of people now is the same in the coming days so all things has a changes and no one can predict that, so the only things that we can do is wait and keep our hope in our heart that every things will be okay.

legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
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Am I the only one who does not follow that cycle? I really don't get anxious or depressed depending on the price of bitcoin.  Why would that matter to me? I think in terms of decades not daily valuation.
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 753

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.






It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 



looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.

First of all, you are absolutely correct in terms of stating that bitcoin prices tend to move in cycles. Each cycle to date seems like it is somewhere between 3-4 years.

I also expect prices to potentially dip by a bit more, and move sideways due to the fact that I think that we're close to the capitulation phase of the market cycle. There is virtually no chance for recovery to happen this year or even first half of next year in my opinion, if you look back towards the 2014-15 bear market which was quite similar (not going to be 100% accurate, of course).

Honestly, I wouldn't bother trying to find the exact bottom if you are a long term investor. Not only is this very improbable to do, you could miss out on a buying opportunity when you keep waiting on lower prices. In my opinion, trying to minimise your average cost per BTC is key, and right now, prices are low enough for investors to start doing so.
member
Activity: 406
Merit: 36
The market drops because of newbies like they sell in low price their investment,news that like FUD or negative about crypto then manipulation so if this turn well in the future like of course if we unite to grow this or if we unite to sell our investment in high i think it will happen so just hold and wait until we experience that like believe in crypto that we can earn here

There are lots of factors that affects the value of such coins, I presume that it's not those newbies triggered about the fall of prices but rather some big whales who somehow controlling the supply of BTC. This is how business works, in order to have a cycle and we should try to accept that kind of fact.
Whales are always going to have the best part of the market, but there is nothing whales will do if the market itself is not bearish and there is absolutely no condition to be pulling it up. I said that because, if there is some news or some real life usage right now that would be bringing in some high level of demand no matter what, the market will most definitely be reacting to that, so in a way, asides whales in this matter, the market itself simply have less demand than supply.
full member
Activity: 518
Merit: 145
Been thinking the same thing for days now, but of course, it is a market and nothing is certain and it all depends on the angle you want to be looking at the chart anyway to be able to call if we have even hit the level of capitulation or not. For now, we just let the market play its thing out, one thing is certain though, which is the fact that we are still in a bear trend and how ever the bears want to push it down the more, it just makes a lot of sense to buy more at the end of it all, once the market starts showing signs of recovery. Let's see!
sr. member
Activity: 994
Merit: 391
You may be right. I have seen much technical analysis who thinks like you. But In my opinion, the cycle in which we are in is acting faster than 2014. This means it is also possible that we are at the end of the depression phase and the reversal is near.
legendary
Activity: 3024
Merit: 2148


if you consider the extreme scarcity of bitcoins (most of the supply has already been mined and much of it probably lost), i'd be really surprised if this past bubble was the last.

It's definitely not the last bubble, but there's some chance that the last rally was the last great bubble with that crazy x40 growth. Maybe the next ATH will be only $40,000, and after that we'll have a slower growth up to 6 figures. If we'll see institutional and mass adoption and maturity, they can translate into lower volatility and calmer markets in long term.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 6509
be constructive or S.T.F.U
I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.

so how do you place your entries/exists ? magic ball? or just hodl from 20k to 3k? i would like to know of a WORKING way other than TA. thanks.
legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 2853
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I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.
jr. member
Activity: 262
Merit: 1
https://saturn.black
I agree with what you say if bitcoin will not recover in a short time, I think bitcoin takes 2-3 years to return to the pump path. I say so because now Bitcoin has lost a lot of trust from its investors.
member
Activity: 280
Merit: 12
Nothing is permanent in cryptocurrency, yes a lot of them made profit last year and similarly a lot of them lose this year. which seems to be market is unpredictable and anything can happen it still looks reddish currently and I believe BTC will recover very soon.
copper member
Activity: 409
Merit: 1
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Of course to recover bitcoin can not be in the near term, bitcoin will take a long time to recover, and from that we must have patience and keep holding to get better results than bitcoin.
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