Topic: BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why. - page 3. (Read 879 times)

It was more of a response to the idea that "good news causes price to rise." It often doesn't.

I'm not saying CME leads the market at all. They shouldn't even at higher volumes since there's no way to directly arbitrage the market anyway.

I understand from one of the post here that Bobby Lee said "bitcoin will be $333,333 by 2022" therefore I strongly believe that now the cryptocurrencies market is going to be going down.  New investors has to come in to push bitcoin upwards.
Those that are selling now are going to regret in future.  Those that sold their coins when bitcoin went down in 2013 regretted when it was up last year.

Makes me thing we are still in denial and far away from the bottom lol

the recovery will take a long time not because of some imaginary market cycle or definitely not because sometime in the past the same trend lasted X number of days.

it will take a long time because of the incidents of last month which led to an unexpected crash of the price that led to fear and lack of confidence and for that come come back it takes time. we also have accumulation to account for which needs a long time.

in other words if the manipulation of last month didn't happen, price would have already been on the rise and the downtrend would have ended.

I dont buy the CME story - just compare their volume to bitmex lol

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

if this theory does apply, in 2022 we will look back at the charts, and regret not selling the wife and kids for BTC 

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

all this on last year made people to think that the price would reach $40,000 as some analysts had been talking


I also think the same thing

for sure. I think likely that panic selling from the BCH fork chaos was the capitulation phase and we've now entered the bottom range. It might dip into the 2000s, but in general I'd say we're in the range we'll be for the most part until the middle of next year. There will be a lengthy transition phase from bear market to bull market and we're probably just at the start of that now (whereas before the BCH chaos caused the massive drop we seemed to be in that phase since early september in the 6000s).

Everyone should be buying for the long term. So everyone should start accumulating now and continue accumulating throughout this bottoming out process that will likely go well into 2019.

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.






It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 



looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.