Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 34. (Read 198958 times)

Deprived's hangover must be epic if he's not up at 430PM UTC

It should be... it seems like somebody forgot about it though:((

Is today's dividend still going down or

It's my intention to relist, yes - but don't expect any immediate resolution of it.

I've nearly completed a pretty long message which will be sent to Bitfunder and Havelock - explaining the benefits to them of us relisting there and asking various questions that will allow me to determine which best fits our needs (only really relevant if both actually want us - neither may)

There are other options potentially available but those two possibilities are my focus for now.

The actual process of migration to either would be very simple (maybe moreso with Bitfunder as they already have procedures/tools in place from taking in GLBSE refugees).  Making sure we choose the best platform in terms of our needs (either in available functionality - or in scheduled future changes) is most important to me - but if it's close on those then the preference shown (so far) for Bitfunder would be the deciding factor.

One - or both - of them may not have interest in accepting DMS.  If both, then obviously closure comes back onto the table - but those two exchanges aren't QUITE the only options (Cryptostocks is NOT an option at all).

Ehh I'd rather just hold on to my DMS assets than deal with holding ciphermine bonds.

Deprived, any word on if you are going to proceed with relisting?

Fair enough. Unless it seems like CIPHERMINE.B1 will be redeemable at face value soon, I'll probably end up taking the NAV/U plus CIPHERMINE.B1 offer in a few days / week. The bond will probably be decently profitable as long as Kate doesn't go off the rails and go around forcing a buyback or something of the sort.

Thanks for the report.

Some people are still dumping SELLING at unreasonable low price now. Although I am happy to get those cheap shares, I will still feel better if they do that not because they don't know there's a better option. They can just buy MINING at a very cheap price now. Then with the pair, I think Deprived offered 0.0075 for it, or they can just wait a while to get 0.8+.

So if you know this and still want to sell it under 0.006, maybe for quick cash, I will buy them and feel much better. Sorry for my fellow bidders, I know I'm a little bit stupid.

Calculation's easy if you know the previous day's NAV/U (in last report) and the new MINING divend.

NAV/U - (401*MINNG DIV) = SELLING DIV

i.e. how much of NAV/U is left to dividend out if we set aside 401 days of it (400 as that's the reserve target plus 1 for tomorrow's MINING DIV).

That's not how I work it out - as I have to recalculate it based on actual new NAV/U, but now we have nothing generating income other than the last few days of the CL CD (plus CIPHERMINE.B1 dividends each weekend) it should be pretty exact.

Checking it I get :

0.00859085 - (401*0.00001690) = 0.00181395

Which is, of course, slightly different to what I posted as well.

Turns out mine was wrong too - as I'd not adjusted the cash in account on BTC-TC to the current figure (so it still had the one from yesterday's report without yesterday's MINING dividend removed).

So here's a better version of the spreadsheet :

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1127.676895
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   203.3303975
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,936.18875994
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,932.38064697
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00857395
Days Dividend Post Div   507.44
SELLING Dividend    0.00181533
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862

It still differs from the quick calculation - but only in last few decimal places which is down to the spreadsheet using internally longer precision for the MINING dividend (which when multipled by 225000 ends up altering results a tiny bit).

Yeah, I found an error in my calculation. I don't have access to my desktop machine with most of my Mathematica notebooks (including DMS calculations that do tend to give good results), so I hastily slapped something together.

Thanks much!  Enjoy your night out and have one on me.

Sorry first time I am reading one of these reports so forgive the ignorance.  Selling will get 0.00675863 for the ten-day dividend and Purchase gets none because it is frozen?
Thanks for your time, HowlingMad
[/quote]

PURCHASE gets the MINING dividend AND the SELLING dividend - as each PURCHASE is exactly same as 1 MINING + 1 SELLING.

The .00675862 is the NAV/U (value) of each PURCHASE (or each pair of MINING+SELLING) after the dividends are paid.

The SELLING dividend is : SELLING Dividend    0.00183766

Every PURCHASE will get that AND the MINING dividend tomorrow.

   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,937.41333771
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00859628
Days Dividend Post Div   508.76
SELLING Dividend    0.00183766
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862
[/quote] Sorry first time I am reading one of these reports so forgive the ignorance.  Selling will get 0.00675863 for the ten-day dividend and Purchase gets none because it is frozen?
Thanks for your time, HowlingMad

Agree with the new MINING dividend but getting a very different SELLING dividend.  This is EXACTLY what tomorrow's report will look other than a minor adjustment up in the Coinlenders CD (which I actually didn't do in last report - but it has trivial impact):

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1132.709586
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   203.3303975
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,941.22145068
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,937.41333771
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00859628
Days Dividend Post Div   508.76
SELLING Dividend    0.00183766
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862

No it doesn't represent a loss of 23% of NAV/U.  It would represent a loss of 20% of 23% of NAV/U - so a bit over 4%.

And that loss would only be for those who chose to sell out AND chose to then sell the CIPHERMINE.B1 into bids on the market.

If you're aware of some option I'm missing to redeem the bonds at face value then let me know - the only option I know of is to give 3 months notice and surrender all right to dividends in the meantime.  Which anyone who cashes out will be entirely entitled to do with their own bonds once they get them.

For those who don't cash out, I obviously intend to try to liquidate CIPHERMINE.B1 down to under 25% of capital as soon as I can (assuming it gets above that after next difficulty change).  My belief is that we risk more trying to request a cashout immediately (which would only occur in 3 months) than waiting a week or so to see what Kate proposes.

In short, excessively chasing these up right now would be less likely to get us what we want (to continue to get our interest and be able to slowly sell them off at face value) than having a bit of patience.  Once I have convincing assurances then, at worst, I'd offer to buy them back personally off investors at much nearer face value than the market gives.  And once I have such assurancces then, at worst, those looking to cash before moving would get either bonds + 100% of remainder of NAV OR the 98% of NAV promised in the contract.  Without the actual ability to sell at face value there'd always be a discount on cash withdrawals - as all risk associated with those bonds backing your share of NAV is being left for those not cashing out.

I only became confident that was the case within the last week - after the CIPHERMINE.B1 investment.  I wouldn't have proposed it or done it if I'd believed at the time that there was a significant likelihood of BTC-TC's imminent demise.  My belief changed from "he's having to pay lawyers to tidy up the TOS and/or get rid of US customers" to "This looks like closure is a real likelihood" at the point where signups and asset creation were disabled and he didn't respond to the initial queries about it whilst answering other questions.

That belief is why, the evening before BTC-TC close, I sold back 1K CIPHERMINE.B1 at about .0103.  Until then I'd only been trickling them out at .0105+.  At that point, whilst I still rated closure as a fairly likely outcome. I DID expect there to be significantly more time until the shit hit the fan : so I didn't want to scare the market down.

I second this motion. IF it's necessary to liquidate the bonds at this time, DMS shouldn't be taking any discount off of the face value. Nothing about BTCT closing has affected the underlying business that the bond payments were relying on.

If Kate decides to move to another exchange, I don't see any reason not to continue to hold the bonds.

Deprived, the offer of exchanging MINING+SELLING for some of NAV/U and then a certain amount of CIPHERMINE bonds that could be sold into the market represents a loss of 23% off of original NAV/U. This is made worse by the statements that Kate has given regarding her lack of interest in dealing with small owners of her securities. As you are a major holder, I and i'm sure many of the other individuals who want to exchange MINING+SELLING for NAV/U*.99 would like to see you continue to try and get the bonds redeemed at face value as quickly as possible.

Difficulty just jumped by 32%. Tomorrows SELLING dividend will be 1.189 mBTC, the new MINING dividend will be 1690 satoshi per day.

I've been very happy with the operation of this asset until this time. Deprived, you stated that you had a good idea that the closure of BTCT was coming - why did you still continue to pursue an investment in CIPHERMINE if the liquidity of these bonds could have been such an issue, especially at such an early date?

SELLING did approve the investment, so a significant amount of responsibility lies there, but this investment is only 1-2 weeks old and there is already talk of liquidation value.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1132.709586
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   203.3303975
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,941.22145068
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   112,628,549
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002233
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00111629
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00223259
365 days (Buyback)    0.00814895
405 days (IPO)    0.00904199
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00893036
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00915361
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,936.18968626
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00859085
Days Dividend Post Div   384.79
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,936.18968626
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00859085

Posting report slightly early as I have to go out later and may not be aorund at usual time.  Dividends are set for usual time of course.  As I don't have to update PURCHASE orders I can post the reports in advance now - other than when it's SELLING dividend day (which is tomorrow).