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Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 94. (Read 198720 times)

hero member
Activity: 709
Merit: 500
Gridcoin Foundation
Just to finally put that little cockup behind us, it occurs to me than anyone who bought a MINING in the 2 hours between the dividend actually being paid and when it should have been paid will have lost out.

Rather than waste a lot of time tracking those people down and compensating them, I've transferred 1.5 BTC from my personal wallet to the issuing wallet and made a 2nd payment to ALL MINING share (not PURCHASE as they all got theirs fine).  That's about 1/3 of my management fee for today - so seems a fair penalty for me to pay.  It also ensures that absolutely noone (with the possible exception of 2 shares sold just now - if the seller had missed both dividends) is worse off than they should have been - and the vast majority of MINING holders will have got a small bonus of 1 day's dividend.

+1   Fair Player!
newbie
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
God Dammit, my selling-mining valuation spreadsheet failed to take into account management laziness/benevolence as a +EV event Tongue

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Just to finally put that little cockup behind us, it occurs to me than anyone who bought a MINING in the 2 hours between the dividend actually being paid and when it should have been paid will have lost out.

Rather than waste a lot of time tracking those people down and compensating them, I've transferred 1.5 BTC from my personal wallet to the issuing wallet and made a 2nd payment to ALL MINING share (not PURCHASE as they all got theirs fine).  That's about 1/3 of my management fee for today - so seems a fair penalty for me to pay.  It also ensures that absolutely noone (with the possible exception of 2 shares sold just now - if the seller had missed both dividends) is worse off than they should have been - and the vast majority of MINING holders will have got a small bonus of 1 day's dividend.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Corrected report has now been posted above - it's calculated as though all dividends were paid at the same time and the ending NAV of it accurately reflects the current holdings.

NAV/U (and selling price of PURCHASE) actually ROSE today.  That's because sales in the last 24 hours of PURCHASE were high (as a percentage of existing ones) so the effective 1.8% markup on new sales was a larger amount than the dividend paid to MINING+PURCHASE.  Don't expect that to happen often.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Sold   2301
Price   0.066163
Total   152.241063
Less Fee   151.9365809
Man Fee   4.558097426

Management fee of 4.558 has been transferred.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    506.93042319
10000 LTC-ATF.B1    100.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    606.93042319
   
Outstanding MINING   9258
Outstanding SELLING   9258
Outstanding PURCHASE   336
Effective Units   9594
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   15605633
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00016113
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00805649
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01611298
365 days (Buyback)    0.05881238
405 days (IPO)    0.06525757
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.06445192
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.06606322
   
NAV Post MINING Div    605.38454385
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.06310033
Days Dividend Post Div   391.61
SELLING Dividend    -        
NAV Post SELLING Div    605.38454385
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.06310033
PURCHASE selling price    0.06625534
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.06183832
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
20 MINING dividends would have been just over .00322 BTC.  Have sent .01 from my personal account to the person who missed both dividends - so he's now been set right and the fund itself has .00322 BTC more than it otherwise would have.  Corrected report shortly.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Looks like the dividend payment on MINING is still stalled - will give it 10 more minutes then leave a message for burnside.

My TAT.VM payout took quite a while yesterday. Of course a pm to Burnside won't hurt either Smiley

Nah it's a big OOPS on my end.

The dividend processed 2 hours ago - i.e. 2 hours early.  I'm assuming I must have set it for then in error - and noone (especially including myself) noticed it.  As I wasn't around then I didn't spot it running.  And when I saw it as processed and posted earlier I STILL didn't notice it had run 2 hours ago.  Only noticed eventually when I went to my own holdings and viewed my dividends

It doesn't do any great harm - but does mean the report is wrong (including calculation of new price).  It also means the single transfer I did in the interim meants one investor didn't receive a dividend at all - I'll manually send him his.  So if you're the person who traded in 20 PURCHASE 45 minutes before the official dividend time, you'll receive a transfer for 20 * MINING dividend from me.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Looks like the dividend payment on MINING is still stalled - will give it 10 more minutes then leave a message for burnside.

My TAT.VM payout took quite a while yesterday. Of course a pm to Burnside won't hurt either Smiley
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
INVESTMENTS

One of the stated objectives of this fund is to generate some revenue from our capital rather than just have it all sitting around idle on BTC-TC.  There are two stated methods by which this will be achieved - investment/loans to existing businesses and secured personal loans.  In this post I'll be addressing the former of those (a proposal will be put forward about the latter in a few days time).

BALANCING THE NEEDS OF TWO GROUPS OF INVESTORS

There are two primary groups of investors with an interest in capital managed by DMS : holders of MINING shares and holders of SELLING shares (PURCHASE holders are effectively members of both of those groups).  The interests of these two groups of investors are not aligned with one another when it comes to management of our capital.  

  • It would be in MINING's best interest if capital were just held wherever is the safest - be that on BTC-TC or in a private wallet of mine - as in most scenarios they gain nothing from any profit it generates ut end of losing out if there's any large loss (in general a loss of under 10% will never affect them, a loss of over 70% definitely will by triggering a forced closure).
  • It would be in SELLING's interest to invest wherever the likely EV (Expected Value) was highest.

A couple points:

MINING also has an interest in growing the capital. There is a risk (albeit very small in my opinion) that the current capital is not sufficient. That could be the case if the difficulty drops in the future.

I think it is very important to avoid underestimating the impact of counterparty risk. Most losses to bitcoin investors have been due to counterparty risk. History shows that even the most secure and stable investments available in bitcoinland are extremely risky. Personally, I don't think that SELLING shareholders would object to holding most of the capital in bitcoins. It might even have the highest expected value.


On the first point, that's why I said "in most scenarios".  My view is that right now the likelihood of that is tiny.  Longer-term that could change - at which point MINING would also stand to gain from capital growth.

On the second point, yes - CP risk is where a very large chunk of losses are incurred.  It's entirely possible that SELLING investors may decide they view the EV of ALL investments as negative.  One point I should clarify is my own voting.  If I hold a significant number of SELLING (I currently hold a significant number of BOTH SELLING and MINING) then I won't vote so as to pass a motion where, were my votes excluded, there would be more NO than YES votes.

One last point on CP risk - which I assume most will have already realised.  LTC-ATF.B1 (the bond issued by my own fund) was pre-approved for investment due to the CP risk in that being almost entirely a risk already accepted by all investors when they transferred (via the market) BTC to an issuing account controlled by me.  It is impossible to participate in DMS without accepting CP risk from myself and from burnside (BTC-TC) hence the two of us not needing a vote to be considered acceptable CP risk.

Looks like the dividend payment on MINING is still stalled - will give it 10 more minutes then leave a message for burnside.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
At present dividend payment seems stalled on MINING.

Dividends for both of MINING and PURCHASE show as complete in history - but the issuer wallet balance has only dropped by the amount for the PURCHASE balance.  This type of delay isn't unknown - so for now we just wait.

Of a bit more concern is that there are clearly 9258 outstanding MINING but right now the history tab shows the dividend as being paif to 9238.  The last transfer I did WAS for 20 shares - but was 45 minutes before the dividend.  We'll see if it corrects itself when the dividend finally pays.  I'll hold off on putting more PURCHASE up until the dividend has fully processed (I need to verify final wallet balance against my calculated one anyway).
legendary
Activity: 4298
Merit: 3209
INVESTMENTS

One of the stated objectives of this fund is to generate some revenue from our capital rather than just have it all sitting around idle on BTC-TC.  There are two stated methods by which this will be achieved - investment/loans to existing businesses and secured personal loans.  In this post I'll be addressing the former of those (a proposal will be put forward about the latter in a few days time).

BALANCING THE NEEDS OF TWO GROUPS OF INVESTORS

There are two primary groups of investors with an interest in capital managed by DMS : holders of MINING shares and holders of SELLING shares (PURCHASE holders are effectively members of both of those groups).  The interests of these two groups of investors are not aligned with one another when it comes to management of our capital.  

  • It would be in MINING's best interest if capital were just held wherever is the safest - be that on BTC-TC or in a private wallet of mine - as in most scenarios they gain nothing from any profit it generates ut end of losing out if there's any large loss (in general a loss of under 10% will never affect them, a loss of over 70% definitely will by triggering a forced closure).
  • It would be in SELLING's interest to invest wherever the likely EV (Expected Value) was highest.

A couple points:

MINING also has an interest in growing the capital. There is a risk (albeit very small in my opinion) that the current capital is not sufficient. That could be the case if the difficulty drops in the future.

I think it is very important to avoid underestimating the impact of counterparty risk. Most losses to bitcoin investors have been due to counterparty risk. History shows that even the most secure and stable investments available in bitcoinland are extremely risky. Personally, I don't think that SELLING shareholders would object to holding most of the capital in bitcoins. It might even have the highest expected value.
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
I'm happy to answer any questions anyone may have about CoinLenders CDs.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
I like the DMS.mining, the value still low, I'm buying as much as possible.
I disagree, and that's what makes this fun!
Expert?
sr. member
Activity: 287
Merit: 250
I like the DMS.mining, the value still low, I'm buying as much as possible.
I disagree, and that's what makes this fun!
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
I like the DMS.mining, the value still low, I'm buying as much as possible.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
INVESTMENTS

One of the stated objectives of this fund is to generate some revenue from our capital rather than just have it all sitting around idle on BTC-TC.  There are two stated methods by which this will be achieved - investment/loans to existing businesses and secured personal loans.  In this post I'll be addressing the former of those (a proposal will be put forward about the latter in a few days time).

BALANCING THE NEEDS OF TWO GROUPS OF INVESTORS

There are two primary groups of investors with an interest in capital managed by DMS : holders of MINING shares and holders of SELLING shares (PURCHASE holders are effectively members of both of those groups).  The interests of these two groups of investors are not aligned with one another when it comes to management of our capital. 

  • It would be in MINING's best interest if capital were just held wherever is the safest - be that on BTC-TC or in a private wallet of mine - as in most scenarios they gain nothing from any profit it generates ut end of losing out if there's any large loss (in general a loss of under 10% will never affect them, a loss of over 70% definitely will by triggering a forced closure).
  • It would be in SELLING's interest to invest wherever the likely EV (Expected Value) was highest.

Part of my role as manager of the fund is to balance these two competing sets of interest.  This requirement was very much on my mind when the contract was written.  My intention (hopefully clear from the contract) is to address this by:

1. Only allowing DMS.SELLING to vote on proposed investments - DMS.MINING can't be allowed to veto (which giving it voting rights would do).
2. Limiting those investments to be considered to ones which are very low-risk.

LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS - WHAT ARE THEY?

So what do I mean by low-risk investments?  In general terms I mean ones where the likelihood of ANY loss of capital is minimum.  Specifically I mean investments which meet ALL of the following criteria:

1.  They have a fixed face-value defined in BTC.  DMS is 100% BTC-denominated - anything we in invest in must treat our investment as being strictly in BTC.
2.  The issuer (or borrower) must have a track-record of handling investors funds on a scale similar or larger to our own investment in them - and doing so in accordance with their agreements.
3.  The interest or profit we would make on such investments must have a guaranteed minimum of at least 10% APR (or equivalent).
4.  I must be satisified that the issuer or borrower has liquid (or easily made liquid) assets significantly in excess of any liability towards us plus any similar liabilities of equal or higher seniority.

Those conidtions could be summarised as (in order) the investment target accepting BTC-denominated investment (to be returned in BTC), having previously shown themselves to be competent and trustworthy with similar sized investments, offering a minimum return to make investing worthwhile and having the ability to repay our debt even if they suffer significant loss.

SPECIFIC POSSIBLE INVESTMENTS

Here are three potential investments that may appear to meet the above criteria.  I won't give my views on them yet - but I WILL say that 2 of them I'm fine with and the third I'm not.

1.  Buying CDs (the financial instruments, not the storage media) from TradeFortress  (coinlenders.com) - APR somewhere around 26-27%.  Loans without collateral ARE fine to businesses/established traders.  We'd be be buying the 30-day ones (deposits have no guaranteed minimum rate, 90-days is longer than we can safely commit to).  We would NOT be accepting Ripple BTC in settlement Smiley
2.  Graet.loan on Bitfunder.  This is a loan in the form of a bond paying 0.05% daily.  If we invest in this, Bitfunder would also need to be approved by vote for counter-party risk - I'm not anticipating that being an issuer.
3.  Namworld's BTC-BOND on BTC-CO.  A bond paying a minimum rate of just over 10% P.A. - with larger dividends from time to time. 

Do not get hung up over the issue over whether any of those is issued by a company or an individual.  Claiming to be a company doesn't add any security.  All three of the above are, in effect, personal loans managed in the form of a bond or a CD.

If you have strong views on one or more of them but would prefer not to raise those views in public then I am happy to accept PMs.  I will NOT discuss them by PM - but will present your views here without identifying the source.  I'll give my own views once others have had a chance to respond - my views will NOT, of course, be anonymous.

All comments on the above three possibilities, general concern/comments on investment or proposals for other suitable places to invest are welcome.  I'm not aware of any alternatives which come close to meeting all my criteria but would love to be wrong on that.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Deprived, what incentives, if any, are structurally built into this system over the long-term to give you an incentive to maximize the capital, or at least, manage it wisely?  The management fees are one-time payoffs for you.  It doesn't seem like you are obligated to actually own any .SELLING or .PURCHASE, and if you (for example) personally chose to go long on .MINING alone your economic incentives might not be to maximize the capital, beyond a certain point, although I haven't really thought that through.

A good question - and illustrates the reason why, in nearly all cases, management fee should be based on profit rather than on sales.  I believe this set of securities to be an exception to the general rule and will try to explain why.  But first let me give an assurance - and explain why PART of your argument is wrong (the general question remain an entirely valid one though).

It is my intention that I will always hold a significant position in MINING and/or SELLING myself.  I'm not going to disclose which of those I currently hold most - and that may well change over time anyway.  My view is that NEITHER of MINING or SELLING are intrinsically better than the other - which one it makes most sense to hold depends entirely on the prices at which they trade (compared to the investor's own expectations of future difficulty).  So even if I hold a lot more of one than the other at present that ratio could reverse at any point in the future if prices change.

The danger (in terms of lack of incentive for me) is NOT if I go long on MINING rather than on SELLING - for 2 reasons :

1.  Even if were long on MINING right now, if prices move then my view could change causing me to want to move to SELLING.  Obviously that gives me an incentive to have sound investments - as when I change the income (and the reliability of the capital) becomes mine.
2.  If I'm long on MINING then good management of the capital increases the maximum payout I can receive.  Specifically, at any difficulty change where the increase in capital cover (expressed as days of dividends) is less than or equal to the number of dividends paid to MINING on the previous difficulty there would be NO dividend for SELLING and all capital growth would be retained as cover for MINING.

The danger in terms of commitment from me is if I sell ALL my MINING and SELLING and have no (or a negligible) stake at all left.  Now that will NOT be the case (and I'm fine for burnside to confirm at any time that I hold at least 3K combined MINING+SELLING - including PURCHASE as 1 of each.  Only time I'd fall below that would be temporarily if I were able to sell BOTH at a price exceeding my cost to replace them with a PURCHASE).  Obviously (I hope) I can't expose my personal portfolio - as that would reveal precisely what I held and what I had up for sale.

Even ignoring that, there IS still good reason to believe I'd be committed to doing a good job - even if I held no shares at all.

1.  My reputation.  If I plainly make bad investments, fail to maintain liquidity or don't try to invest at all then my reputation will suffer.  I like to think I have a good reputation so far for doing a good job - I don't want to damage that.
2.  My profit.  My current fee may be only on sales of PURCHASE, and not directly effected by how I manage the fund, but what is gong to happen to sales if I obviously do a bad job?  What will happen to sales if I obviously do a GOOD job and PURCHASE becomes tempting in its own right as medium-term investment?  The answers to those questions should clearly show a financial motivation for me to do a good job even if I held not direct stake myself.
3.  My initial intent.  It was never my expectation that the low management fee on sales would make me any significant profit.  My intention was always to be able to make a profit myself by trading/holding MINING and SELLING.  And that then leaves me getting direct benefit from sound management of funds - the same as everyone else.

I haven't rushed into investments yet - because investments have to be approved by a vote of SELLING (other than the one we already have).  And I didn't want to pass such votes immediately whilst I held an excessive chunk of voting power from my direct purchases and from my trade-in of LTC-ATF.B1.  I'll be posting later tonight with the first few proposals for discussion - but not initiating votes just yet.

Now let's look at the alternative ways I could have taken fees:

1.  As a percentage of all payments made out.  This is actually how I initially wrote the contracts.  I would then be effectively getting a percentage of all sales of PURCHASE AND a percentage of all capital growth.  I removed this for a bunch of reasons:
a)  It added a LOT of text and complexity to the contract - as there's a lot of places where payments get made out.
b)  As a result of a) it adds a lot of complexity to the calculation of management fee.
c)  a) and b) together mean less transparency - it's less OBVIOUS to investors what I'm taking and when.
d)  The net result would not be a lot different - because we'll only ever be touching low-risk investments (with commensurate low rewards) the bulk of fee would still be on initial sales.

2.  By taking management fee as a (much larger) percentage of (total returned capital - total received capital).  So I'd take my fee only when either the fund ended OR total payments to date exceeded total sales.  That means my reward isn't directly for running this - but instead a percentage of what profit I make using the capital.  

On the face of it that's ideal - as it obviously means I want to maximise profit from investment.  But unfortunately the truth isn't so simple.  If I get a significant percentage of profit but don't bear ANY losses then it actually gives a direct incentive to gamble or take high-risks.  I mean flipping the whole bank-roll on a 50/50 S.DICE spin would be MASSIVELY +EV for me.  If it loses I lose nothing - if it wins I get a good percentage of the profit.

Now I'd never do that sort of thing anyway - but my pay being based on profit is inevitably going to have some non-zero impact on how I assess investment opportunities.  Extreme examples like S.DICE are clearly not allowed by contract anyway - but it remains a bad idea to define in contract a financial incentive for a manager which encourages behaviour directly detrimental to one class of investors (MINING).  And that's a problem which exists far more here than in other securities : MINING and SELLING do NOT have the same interests when it comes to investments.

That is why MINING don't vote on investments - but SELLING do.  If MINING had to vote as well then in nearly all scenarios a rational MINING voter would vote no on ANY investment - as the majority of time they won't see the benefit of it.  But SELLING actually have an incentive to take a level of risk ABOVE that which it would be fair to impose on MINING.  So what keeps SELLING in check?  I do - as I control what votes occur and also whether or not I invest even when something is approved.  And if I'm the only thing ensuring MINING get treated fairly then I absolutely can NOT have a management fee structured so that I'm financially rewarded for risk-taking beyond even the level SELLING would want.  Do note that whilst SELLING should STILL have a very low risk threshhold it IS going to be significantly higher than MINING's - and there's nothing to stop a gambler or two getting a lot of SELLING and wanting to gamble.

In short, if you believe I'll act with integrity and commitment then the current system IS the best one.  If you believe I won't act with integrity or will be lazy then at least the current system gives me a financial incentive NOT to do really stupid things.  The current system means I have no conflict of interest between maximising my personal gain and ensuring fair treatment for both MINING and SELLING.

Hope that explains it a bit.

EDIT:  Just to add, at present I hold a 4-figure number of BOTH MINING and SELLING (I haven't been trying too hard to sell mine yet).
sr. member
Activity: 287
Merit: 250
Deprived, what incentives, if any, are structurally built into this system over the long-term to give you an incentive to maximize the capital, or at least, manage it wisely?  The management fees are one-time payoffs for you.  It doesn't seem like you are obligated to actually own any .SELLING or .PURCHASE, and if you (for example) personally chose to go long on .MINING alone your economic incentives might not be to maximize the capital, beyond a certain point, although I haven't really thought that through.






hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Dividend payment has processed.

The new wallet balance is : 359.54861969
If you add to that 100 BTC for our investments you'll see the result si very close to that in report:

NAV Post SELLING Div    459.54862112

The difference in the last decimal places is simply rounding errors - specifically the dividend actually paid is an exact amount of satoshis per share.  The spreadsheet calculates at higher precision.  I won't be posting verification of this comparison every day - but it IS one of the checks I'll be doing to ensure reported results are correct.  It is, of course, verifiable by anyone else who looks at the public wallet.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
I'm doing the report BEFORE dividend is paid - hence PURCHASE ask (and bid) being taken down.  I'll still process exchanges near the end - those might make the share numbers different but changing nothing of importance (dividends are paid to PURCHASE as well as MINING so total dividends paid remains the same).  Posting it before dividends are paid allows anyone who is around to adjust their orders as they see fit.

Here's the calculation of management fee:

Sold   916
Price   0.066195
Total   60.63462
Less Fee   60.51335076
Man Fee   1.815400523

I placed 10K PURCHASE for sale yesterday and 9084 remained when I took the order down.  So I know there were 916 sales on which a management fee is due.  I can then calculate the total value of those sales, then take off the 0.2% site transaction fee and finally calculate management fee as being 3% of what was actually received.  Fee of 1.815 BTC has been transferred.

Here's the main data:

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    360.72374078
10000 LTC-ATF.B1    100.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    460.72374078
   
Outstanding MINING   7203
Outstanding SELLING   7203
Outstanding PURCHASE   90
Effective Units   7293
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   15605633
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00016113
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00805649
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01611298
365 days (Buyback)    0.05881238
405 days (IPO)    0.06525757
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.06445192
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.06606322
   
NAV Post MINING Div    459.54862112
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.06301229
Days Dividend Post Div   391.07
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    459.54862112
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.06301229
PURCHASE selling price    0.06616290
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.06175204

Those paying close attention (or more likely just those reading this BEFORE looking in detail) will notice one surprising thing.

After yesterday's dividend there were 391.26 days of dividend left as capital.  After paying today's that has only dropped to 391.07.  Surely it should have dropped by 1 day?

The reason it hasn't is the sale of new units of PURCHASE.  Even after management fee and site fee are taken those still sell at a markup to current NAV/U.  That acts to slighjtly increase the number of days of dividend remaining.  The impact of that will fall as new sales of PURCHASE becomes a smaller percentage of effective outstanding units.  Revenue from investments will, however, have a similar effect - so days of dividend remaining will nearly always fall by less than a full day each day.

Because of the small drop in days dividend remaining (i.e. NAV/U) the selling price for PURCHASE also only drops very slightly.  This effect ensures that it will ALWAYS be better to buy PURCHASE before a day's dividend payments rather than after it (as the dividends you receive will always exceed the reduction in price - even if only very slightly).

If anyone has questions about any of these factors - or why I designed specific elements the way I did - then feel free to ask.  The only questions I won't answer are ones relating to how I think MINING and SELLING should be relatively priced - that's for everyone to decide themselves.

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