Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 89. (Read 198958 times)

Math all checked out and wallet balance was consistent with spreadsheet to 3 decimal places (difference in low digits is beause dividends are rounded to nearest satoshi plus I always round management fee in fund's favour).

Nice try whoever put up PURCHASE at the old price - but you only had it there for a few seconds before I got the new one up (you beat me as with it being for hundreds of BTC I have to treble-check before submitting the order).

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    901.35506956
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,026.35506956
   
Outstanding MINING   15655
Outstanding SELLING   15655
Outstanding PURCHASE   580
Effective Units   16235
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,024.24415939
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.06308865
Days Dividend Post Div   485.21
SELLING Dividend    0.01107977
NAV Post SELLING Div    844.36406963
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05200887
PURCHASE selling price    0.05460932
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05096870

SELLING dividend (for both SELLING and PURCHASE) is now queued for immediate payment.  Once they've gone through I'll unlock PURCHASE, place new Ask/Bif and the fun can continue.

Sold   2292
Swapped   377
Total   2669
Price   0.066149
Total   151.613508
Less Fee   151.310281
Man Fee   4.53930843
   
Units   16235
Excess Div   0.00003111
Refund   0.50507085

Details of today's management fee - and also of the refund made for the extra dividends being paid.  Rest of report will come once I've completed paying dividends.  The management fee and refund have both been transferred.

I asked that just a minute ago, the SELLING div will be issued soon after the MINING div, which issues at 1600 GMT (about 7 minutes from this post)

Deprived, When is the payment for SELLER dividend? any minute today or tomorrow?

That makes sense, thanks for the detailed explanation! This is a pretty complicated security, so it's great that you're frequently around to address shareholder questions.

*I should have said Noon ET earlier, not Midnight ET, as well-

Oh - PURCHASE gets both dividends by the way.  So no need to panic if you haven't exchanged any - you'd still get the MINING and SELLING dividends.

Only way you miss the dividends is if you decide to send me the PURCHASE right before the dividends process - where I wouldn't see it in time.  Basically don't send me PURCHASE from 10 minutes before dividends are due up until after dividends have been processed - that's why I try to always take down PURCHASE Ask 10-15 minutes before dividends : so noone can buy and accidentally miss out on a dividend by sending it to me just before dividend payment.

MINNG div is issued at 16:00 GMT - which is about an hour and 15 minute from now.  After that's processed I'll double-check all calculations then SELLING div will be put up for immediate payment - so it'll come 5-10 minutes after BTC-TC processes the MINING div.

PURCHASE will be disabled for trading from about 10 minutes before MINING dividend until after SELLING one has processed and I've, again, checked that all the math (and wallet balance) match with my spreadsheet.  Once everything's checked, PURCHASE will be enabled for trading again and new PURCHASE Ask/Bid will go up.

MINING and SELLING will be left open for trading all the time.

Thanks for the quick response, I appreciate it. Is the SELLING div issued around midnight ET tonight, like MINING's divs, or just sometime today?

5 minutes if I'm actively checking.
An hour if I'm around but not checking a lot.
8 hours if you send just after I go to bed.

Whenever I check I catch up with all transfers in. I try to check at least once an hour when I'm around a computer - which is most of the time

Deprived, how long is the normal wait time from transfer of PURCHASE to you before receiving back SELLING/MINING?

Holding DMS.PURCHASE long-term would make a profit from three sources:

1.  The markup on sales of PURCHASE after you bought yours.
2.  Any revenue from investment.
3.  The discount on repurchases - if someone sells back PURCHASE or MINING+SELLING then a bit extra is left in the fund.

That has to overcome the 3% management fee + trading fees.  If the fund runs long enough (and I can't see it being likely that SELLING will vote for closure this year) then you'd make a profit yes.  But that profit would be pretty small and likely not justify the CP risk.  Just holding PURCHASE gives CP exposure to me and to BTC-TC.  Nobody except me can assign a 0% CP risk to me - and noone except burnside can assign a 0% CP risk to him.

If investment takes off that could change - but right now with high difficulty changes I have to keep the capital very liquid anyway.

I'm not sure what your point is with trade-ins.  The ONLY assets that would be accepted in exchange for PURCHASE are ones which SELLING investors have voted to accept us investing in.  And I still don't have to accept them  - I'd only take them if I were considering investing in them anyway.  Taking them in trade-in saves us the exchange fee on buying them AND the exchange fee on selling PURCHASE.  Remember that I won't touch anything unless it has a fixed face value with redemption at (or near) that price - so there's no real room for any exploitation by someone waiting for a dip in the price.  Things that have dips in their price aren't things that we'd take anyway.

If you could give an example of what sort of problem you see I may be able to explain better - I think (but can't be sure) you're concerned about problems which, if they were real, would mean the security would never get touched by us anyway.  Bonds and loans are pretty much all we'll touch - and those only if SELLING investors approve it.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btctbfmines-mining-contracts-now-available-bonus-divs-first-months-236310

 

Your calculations assume a certain price for MINING (because how else can you express returns in percentages). While the point of this security is, among other things, to find what the right price for these type of securities should be. The price of MINING has fluctuated both upward and downward (most recently primarily downward) It would therefore be better to express returns as absolute values, so bitcoins per share.

Great job Deprived! You bring much education and competition to the people.

The MINING/SELLING pair you brought forward is a great solution and more then likely a wake up call to the rest of the bond market.

One personal question:  You noted earlier that holding DMS.PURCHASE long term wasn't wise.  Without running a simulation I was thinking the remainder of the 5% of the markup after your 3% fee would bring enough new value to the fund to make holding it provide a positive return.  However this may only be the case if there is a much accelerated rate of new shares issued if I understand correctly now?

The only flaw I can see with the fund is that the option to purchase shares with valued assets.  This brings unneeded risk and is an open for exploitation to an otherwise very well crafted fund for those who enjoy the process of trading regularly.

In theory, switching won't help because as as the dividend drops, so will the price of the share. The dividend can rise if the difficulty drops.

OK, thanks a lot for the analysis guys, really appreciated.

So, to optimize ROI, we should calculate at which point it makes sense to switch to another security that pays more dividend. Unless DMS comes up with something that increases dividend. This is also why I mentioned P/E earlier.

180% per year is not correct because you don't get your original investment back, so really it is only 80%. But then, as TradeFortress stated, the dividend drops as the difficulty goes up. There is a possibility that you wont reach 100%, which would mean that you lose money on your investment.

Here is what will happen to the 2-week dividend over a year if the difficulty increases by 20% each period (a rather pessimistic prediction):



In this case the total revenue is about 40%, so you lose 60%.

If you assume a certain average rise in difficulty, you can compute the total amount of revenue you will receive. Here are some examples:

Difficulty Change	| Factor	| Total Revenue	| Total Return
20%	| 6	| 40.5%	| -59.5%
10%	| 11	| 74.2%	| -25.8%
5%	| 21	| 142%	| +42%
2% (Moore's Law)	| 51	| 344%	| +244%
1%	| 101	| 681%	| +581%

The dividend is going to keep going down over time as the network difficulty increases.

What I don't get is that DMS MINING pays a dividend of roughly .5 percent, per day. As listed above, this should be about 180 percent return per year. Shouldn't this thing be going through the roof?

We need to develop reliable P/E ratios for all of these securities to have another common denominator.