Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 92. (Read 198958 times)

At a 5% increase per step (repeated indefinitely), MINING will earn 21 times its current biweekly dividend in total (sum of a geometric series), which starting tomorrow will be 14 x 0.13 mBTC, so 1.82 mBTC per difficulty readjustment period (approximately, if difficulty rises, the readjustment periods will be less than 2 weeks) for a total of 38.22 mBTC.

With a 10% difficulty increase per step, MINING will only ever pay back 20.02 mBTC.

edit: updated sloppy math

I think it's even worse. At current MINING price (lets take 0.027) and an increasing difficulty of 5% per step it will take 13 months to be profitable (roi on dividends). And if difficulty increases by more (it probably will) you'll never earn anything... 

I see you are getting to the same conclusions as me, but DMS.Mining is rising again xD
(And it's still undervalued in comparison to other PMBs or should I better write not that ridiculously overvalued? I wonder what will happen there? )

We also got >1000 sells of Purchase which will increase the dividends slightly :3

The new Asset will become 602.894548 = (0.000129599 * 400 * 11630)
The difference is 131.29162711 = ( 734.18617511 - 602.894548)
SELLER dividend will be 0.011289047 = (131.29162711 / 11630)

That'll be the NAV/U, PURCHASE will sell at 5% over NAV/U and Deprived will buy it back at 2% under NAV/U iirc.

edit: all this assuming that the difficulty indeed goes to 19.4M of course.

This next difficulty the PURCHASE price will become 0.052487595 = (0.000129599 * 405 )

Is this correct?

I've made a slightly higher estimate, but definitely < 0.02.
To be profitable at current prices the difficulty should increase no more than ~5% each step...

I think that the price of MINING will hold higher than its actual value, because at first glance it's a pretty lucrative PMB-equivalent. That's how I first got into it as well, going full into MINING until I actually read the details (hey, who needs the manual anyway?).

I'm fairly sure that MINING will stabilize above its value, leaving SELLING relatively cheap. Of course, market reactions may be completely opposite, so it'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow when the difficulty changes.

Yup, same numbers here too. Your calculation is based on difficulty 19,400,00 right?

The dividend return on SELLING is more than 4x higher than the dividend return on MINING (compared to their current price per unit).

IMHO, the fair value of MINING would be < 0,01 

Yeah, same numbers here except that I counted that there is still going to be a DMS.MINING dividend payment before the difficulty change (there might be 2 still). But this only has a small effect on the outcome.

I might easily have done something wrong:

Current MINING div 0.00016113
Difficulty change 19'402'467.47/15'605'632.68 = 1.24329899773
New MINING div 0.00016113/1.24329899773 = .000129599

Current assets 734.18617511
Current units 11630
Asset/unit 0.06312865

410 with new MINING div .000129599 * 410 = 0.05313559
400 with new MINING div .000129599 * 400 = 0.05183960
Excess asset/unit 0.06312865 - 0.05183960 = 0.01128905

Run the numbers and find out

Needless to say, I'm looking forward to see what happens at the first dividend-payment after the difficulty update and the effect it has on market prices of the 2 funds.

Then you wouldn't mind to tell us what the one-time dividend for SELLING will be after the difficulty has risen to e.g. 19,200,000 

its just a so called  stomachFeeling?!  ;-)      2 days ago i was part of the 60% for sure...so i hope now to be part of the 40%

My fault - I wasn't clear enough.

When I said "I won't bother reporting dividends like this in future" I didn't mean mean that I wouldn't report dividends - I meant that I wouldn't report them "like this" - i.e. the LTC paid, exchange-rate etc.  If anyone cares enough about those details they're available on LTC-GLobal.  I WILL report receipt of weekly dividends - but it'll just be brief.  So this week's report would be "Dividend of just over 0.6 BTC received for LTC-ATF.B1" - and I'd put it at the top of the next day's dividend report.

I'd suggest regular updates, at least pointing to this post.

-helixone

What leads you to believe that 60% don't understand?

I think I am part of the 40% that understand what is going on. At least, I hope so. Are you sure you are not part of the 60%?

We just received our first investment income - 29 LTC dividend payment for this week on our 10K LTC-ATF.B1 (it's a round number as when paying LTC-ATF.B1 dividends I always round up to a tidy number for the convenience of investors when they do any math).

That, converted at the exchange-rate used when calculating the dividend (.02093) is 0.60697 BTC.  The LTC have been returned to LTC-ATF and the BTC transferred to this fund on BTC.CO.

This isn't a large enough payment to warrant me cancelling PURCHASE ask, doing a management fee calculation/payment, reporting new values and putting up a fresh Ask.  So until tomorrow's dividend, PURCHASE will have a slightly smaller markup on current NAV/U than usual (it's actually been less all week - due to valuing LTC-ATF.B1 at face and not counting in accrued interest).  The 2% markup on sales allows me to simplify reporting and accounting like this - without existing investors being penalised.  That's a large part of why it exists.

Unless anyone sees the need I won't bother reporting dividends like this in future - I can always produce the transactions if required (the amount of the dividends and the exchange-rate used are always reported on LTC-Global already).  I'd happily expose the read-only API for transactions on this account - were it not for the fact that it would reveal who traded in what shares when (which obviously can't be made public).

Sold   572
Price   0.066231
Total   37.884132
Less Fee   37.80836374
Man Fee   1.134250912

Management fee of 1.134 BTC transferred.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    634.18617511
10000 LTC-ATF.B1    100.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    734.18617511
   
Outstanding MINING   11411
Outstanding SELLING   11411
Outstanding PURCHASE   219
Effective Units   11630
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   15605633
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00016113
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00805649
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01611298
365 days (Buyback)    0.05881238
405 days (IPO)    0.06525757
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.06445192
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.06606322
   
NAV Post MINING Div    732.31223549
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.06296752
Days Dividend Post Div   390.79
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    732.31223549
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.06296752
PURCHASE selling price    0.06611589
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.06170817

yea correct..the english is sometimes  pretty hard to understand...if english isnt the first language its even harder..