tl;dr
sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.
lol
Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"? - page 11. (Read 19779 times)
I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.
To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriateTo newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
I think anyone that has 'been around' a while would recall the mtgox hack...
You clowns think you have seen an exponential rise that *must* be followed by a correction, so you are short. You are trying to do the inverse of catching a falling knife. You are doing it with a commodity that is prone to sudden exponential rises. I think that is just crazy but each to his own.
I think there may be a correction it could happen seconds after I post this or in three months time after a run up to several hundred dollars. Maybe even fuelled by bearish short sellers being squeezed out time after time.
I am long, with tiny sell orders all the way up to skim a little spending money off the top. I am in it for the long haul though. I held through the bubble to 32 and the crash back to 2. I will hold through worse. I see 10-100k per coin in the distant future barring catastrophe.
I've been working on securing my financial future for a while, and now, it feels like I've already won.
Go ahead and short though! You might get lucky!
I do not understand why ATC777 is getting roasted for this. Sure, the TA isn't perfect (weekend volume, new entrants could blow through resistance, etc.)....but he has made a great attempt at offering a differing view based on short-term TA. Market psychology is market psychology, regardless of the underlying (and especially given that speculation is moving this market), which is his overall message. The main difference in BTC is the difficulty determining where we are in the cycle. These new entrants are a massive ?.
As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.
I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.
Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.
As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.
I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.
Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.
I believe the price will reach stability after breaking $75, meeting resistence at $90, and settling at $86.40.
See what I mean?, people coming up not with a round number, but specifically $86.40 I can't but just laugh at this kinds of posts.
Question for you sir, can I borrow that crystal ball of yours so I can play the lotto? I'm sure if you can predict with such exactitude the price for BTC, then it shouldn't be any problem to get six integers for the powerball
1mBTC = $0.07
^ Quite right. Give it a few days then.
Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.
Absolutely not.
Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.
I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe.
Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.
I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive!
I pointed out your age, because you were 4 when mp3 started playing on 386DX computers and I witnessed what they did to the music industry, you were 10 when the edonkey network and gnutella changed the way people share files, a predecessor of the torrents, therefore, you have missed a lot of critical events that allow older people to recognize, maybe, a world changing platform/tool/currency. Time will prove or disprove my words.
Wsh you the best and hope you heal fully.
1mBTC = $0.07
All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market. Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply.
You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.
It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...
Sure, market sentiment between stocks and BTC speculation is analagous. However I think you have misread the fundamentals. This market is still at the nascent stage... it's just been bootstrapped. We're still at 1mBTC = $0.7, and users are flooding in. The ratio of speculation to overall transaction volume appears to be high but decreasing.
Most exciting are the new BTC-related business opportunities. Look at how a "Magic the Gathering" site has become the biggest and most trusted exchange. The ecosystem is just beginning to grow. The protocol has many new features that no-one is leveraging yet. As BTC rises and newcomers flood in, they will have a vested interest in adding to this ecosystem.
It's a positive feedback loop in the very early stages. The tulip analogy is utterly spurious (aside from the fact that tulips brought us modern stock exchanges, and Bitcoin will be equally revolutionary).
Well, I completely disagree That is what it is, carry on.
That is what it is, carry on.We can agree to disagree. But here's some food for thought: What moves the price of bitcoin? Does bitcoin move bitcoin, or do the humans (and the bots -- who use TA) buying and selling it move it?
Well, I completely disagree That is what it is, carry on.
That is what it is, carry on. I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.
Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...
P.S. -- Are you a college student?
Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.
Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance. Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.
And no I'm not a college student but I was many years ago...
All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market. Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply.
You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.
It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...
All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market. Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply.
You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.
Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week
I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.
Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week
I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?
Money laundering was there since the beginning. There are transactions people do off exchanges. The higher the price (bitcoin market cap) and user base the more money can be laundered effectively.
I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.
Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?
TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.
I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.
So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.
There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).
I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.
You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.
Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.
Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week
I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?
even your red trendline was constructed wrongly. it was already broken when you drew it.
I did draw it crooked, but I just scribbled on the chart in a hurry to highlight the things I was talking about. Wasn't going for "perfection". Trend lines are purely conceptual and do not actually exist in the real world, so there's no right or wrong way to draw one. You simply draw them to help yourself understand a chart or demonstrate something to others.
There are lots of different opinions on how to trade, how to do TA, how to do FA, how to scale positions, how to manage risk, how to allocate assets, etc... Two money-managers with opposing views can often be successful in the same market (seen it many times). Someone like deathcode might be successful this year by merely holding his coins and adding to his position, whilst I might simultaneously be successful buying the dips and selling the rips.
EDIT ::
As a general rule of thumb, however, you only want to add to your positions during substantial dips, to keep your average unit cost low...
I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.
How's that related to moving money? All you need is a computer and electricity, it's not like I have to go to a super market to get money or anything... The bank I used doesn't even have a branch in my state for crying out loud... I deposit the few checks I get using the iPhone app...
And if he's in school, I'm sure he has health insurance, and if he's not in school, and he doesn't work but he has made hundreds of thousands (not sure if we are talking about dollars here or Mardy Grass beads) then he has money to pay for his own health insurance, so having an accident, sure, pity, yet, that shouldn't be a factor here.
My contention here is that he wants an entry point lower than the current price.. But that's speculative, how whole analysis borders both ends.... He sold, but he's a bull long term... Ok I get it, he's a day trader, nothing wrong with that, yet, in his very elaborated analysis he forgot to mention what the intended audience was, I thought they teach that in college... Anyways, I'm not trying to be a troll, but those kinds of analysis just made me laugh when they fall apart, and then you still see these guys around with no shame trying to yet again, guess the future value of something and putting excuses for being totally wrong. It's ok, that a very common tale... We see that every day in the speculation board.
Jump to: