I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...
Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the
bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be
anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis:
1) price
2) it is bought and sold
3) past market data and information.
Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.
Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth
anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.
You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.
Technical analysis can work with
anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for
hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making
forecasts and
educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be
wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a
tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.
That will be all, for now...
Regards,
--ATC--
simple maths proves you wrong if TA could return you even 0.5% then each day you could make this, which gives over 10 years
P(t) = P(1.005)^3650 = 80,561,104.4.
No one has invested $1 and returned 80 Million with TA over a 10 year period.
so keep sucking it up while the hard maths shows you up.