Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"? - page 14. (Read 19801 times)

Every market is going to have a price / value ratio.  The value of Bitcoins is increasing.  The question is is the price increasing faster then the value?

Because you have 2 moving variables, the price, and the value.  And one is very hard to define, overbought can best be signaled by current momentum compared to past momentum.

If the momentum slows (as we are seeing), long enough the "tension" between the value and the price loosens, making room for another run on the breakout of that slowed momentum.

The question right now, is do we have enough of a slowing in momentum long enough to ease that tension?  I'm watching this current consolidation closely.

No market, Bitcoin or otherwise, can see increasing momentum forever.

@ Sage :

Thank you for a very eloquent and reasonable post, and for expressing your differing view with great civility. 


That is absolutely correct. Just when everyone thinks they're safe:



 

And that's a totally incorrect assumption. Human psychology hasn't changed since the tulip mania of the 17th century. ;-)

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

Markets often tend to get overbought and stay overbought for long time until they stop. The "overbought" term is so overused by TA charlatans that it has became completely and utterly pointless.

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.

Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.

Takes courage to speak what you see when everyone else is against you.

And for what it's worth, in the top of every bubble everyone is going to be against the bears.

For what it's worth from me (you can check my other posts for calling the market):

Yes, we are definitely in an overbought situation.  Current events are fueling that frenzy.  But the fundamentals are still very strong.

The question is when is the tension strong enough from the overbought price to pull it back (like a rubber band).  Calling that exact price is pretty tough to do.

When it does get pulled back it's another great buying opportunity.  The fundamentals are just too strong to do otherwise.  And are only getting stronger.

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!

That's not what I see...

What I see is people getting upset by any opinion other than their own, and using "age elitism" to try to condescend. 

If you don't agree with my analysis or my opinion, so what? Whatever. Vote with your money. No need to get hostile. And you won't be taking my money, because my money is safely on the sidelines now. It's all of your money that's up for grabs, and perhaps I might be taking it from you in another week or two. 

I've been in this position before... one of my favorites was when I made a very bearish call on the S&P 500 years ago, and I was ridiculed and insulted up, down, right and left for it. And lots of forum assholes were insulting me because I was just 20 or 21 years old at the time, so I was just a "stupid kid". They said I was going to lose all my money and I should just stop trading and go kill myself. You know what happened? 4 days later, the S&P 500 plunged 55pts at the opening. My small options position I'd put $4000 into swelled to a net value of over $17,500 instantly. Then the same bullies who'd ridiculed me made a public apology thread and paid homage, which was quite amusing. The moral of this story is not that I'm the world's greatest trader (of course I'm not), but you should never call someone an idiot or mock them because of an opposing view on the market... because it might be YOU who loses all their money the next day. 

I've been wrong before, and I'm prepared to be wrong again. I know how to manage my risk. And it this point my risk is 0%... you're the ones with risk, and I wish you all well. 

Regards,

--ATC--

+1

LOL@DECEMBER 2012 FORUM ACCOUNTS

 

And I've been around a lot longer than the both of you.  I was there in the crash, watched it go down to $2 live on goxlive, and knew one of the people who sold below $2 in November '11 ($1.994 was hit momentarily).  The temptation to sell was strong.  I held all the way through and now I'm very glad for it.  This is not June '11, not by a long shot.  We have fundamentals this time.

To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

If it goes over a hundred i'll go a lot higher.

$72 barrier might be broken tmr or we might get a reversal.

Exponential growth is not normal to those people.

Right now i'm unsure we are in the right state for a bubble.  People aren't euphoric we need to wait for it to go past $100.  And because so many people are interested in buying again still so it'll probably go back up like in that graph.

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.

Anybody who wants to bet against ATC's predictions can bet against him here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/can-you-guess-the-bitcoin-price-on-33113-157325 Since most of you seem dead set on your points.
Also I am willing to make some personal wagers of my own. PM me if your interested in making a wager

Not really.

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

I don't think your analysis is correct because bitcoins are a complete novelty and CANNOT be compared with traditional stock markets. This doesn't look like a speculative bubble, it looks as if the bitcoin is slowly reaching it's "correct" price. With only 21m bitcoins that can be mined (not a lot), and the widespread adoption of it, prices are set to be higher than 1,000$.

In fact, the more news coverage it gets, the higher the prices will be. Bitcoins aren't known by a lot of people, in comparison to silver. If silver gets news coverage, people won't "learn" about it. When people learn about bitcoins, they either get skeptical or heavily enthusiastic about it.

What makes bitcoin so valuable is decentralization. I think what's happening in Cyprus and the EU is very good for the evolution of our economic systems, because now people are finding out how much BS fiat paper is. What you have though with bitcoins is very tempting: decentralization, no "withdrawal limits", no wallets that can be seized, no taxes unless you convert to fiat currency, anonymity in an Orwellian world...

You are selling? I'll gladly take your bitcoins in exchange of my worthless canadian dollars

However, I enjoyed reading your analysis. I am a noob at trading (though I made a great move when buying LTCs at 0,0055 btc and selling at 0.015), but to me it seems evident that the rocket is NOT about to stop anytime soon. Sure, corrections will happen but having invested at 8$ a bitcoin I see no point in selling right now. I'm in for the long term, and I believe a lot of people are too.

I believe my last reply perfectly fit this part of your posts guys

I would like to add some of my own insight. I talked to ATC here recently and we seem to have a good fix on the market. ATC is a day tarder and he is a lot better with detailed emarketing standpoints were I am more of a psychological/sociological spin on his statistics. I normally leave the explanations to him, and help him more behind the scenes but I will step out of the shadows and give my input.


In 2011 we saw a somewhat similar situation except on a much smaller scale. There were less Bitcoin participants and a lot less capital invested in Bitcoins. Not to mention Bitcoins were going steady at $10 or less. The price surged up due to a article seen here--> http://techland.time.com/2011/04/16/online-cash-bitcoin-could-challenge-governments/ Which brought in a lot of new people causing an influx in sale volume which in turn drives the price up. We have seen that here recently as well, however as far as I can tell it is more due to people noticing a stable environment to "get rich quick" invest 10k and get 20k back in 2 days. Well eventually people run out of money to keep throwing into the mix.

And something like this Happens


Nearly 160 THOUSAND Dollars worth of sale volume and the price surged to ~30 USD per bitcoin. But look what happens when it falls! Not even enough sale volume to put it on the map.Bitcoins plummeted this is an auto correct in the very nature of trading. It is human nature to want more money. Money is the key to everything. The normal train of thought also show us when to hold our money to save it. But there are other contributing factors, Take for example somewhat at a Casino. The average person loses terribly and walk away. Then there is another small percentage that wins big by cashing out at the right time. As seen in the previous chart between the 12^th and the 17^th maid a profit even if it was a slim one. Like ATC said here:

So I suggest learning from past mistakes and making that little bit of profit otherwise you will be feeling like the people on the 21^st through the 24^th with no one to sell to (Hardly any sale volume at all, Newbies moved out along with a lot of the big money)
As seen here:

You say in your fundamental analysis that "the math doesn't add up". But you don't provide any math. Let me provide some for you:

Bitcoin speculation as a % of overall bitcoin usage has been decreasing since the end of last year. I see this as a very positive sign:




Furthermore you base your initial reasoning on looking for "fundamental changes". This is a big bang. A new market. Not a static one. Fundamentals don't have to improve in order for the market to follow -- they have to remain the same.

Anyway...
FACT: inbound money flow to Gox is huge. FACT: The user base is growing exponentially. FACT: Analysis of online sources shows that this trend is strengthening. This renders your following observations utterly irrelevant:

- "Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow." --- not applicable to a nascent market

- "no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen" --- completely irrelevant

Given this, the rest is just "blah blah blah".

If you want to turn a profit, do it. If you want to buy in lower, write this post 3 days ago. But this thread is pointless now.

TL;DR: I think your fundamental analysis is off, and your conclusions are wrong. Furthermore if this post is timed for manipulative impact, you're about 3 days too late.