Topic: Bubble 2014? Superbubble 2015? No bubbles anymore? (Read 3432 times)
Here's the open secret about bitcoin: it's like one of those springy door jams. The further and longer you pull it back (like right now) the harder it will take off. When the market finally decides to let go, people's heads will be bouncing due to the shock of the recoil. The next bubble is going to be massive.
i think you guys are talking about the über bubble ... 
Bei Blasenproblemen bitte fragen Sie ihren Urologen
for me:
bubbles: when something gets valued by speculation or other not sustaintable factor, like loans , so getting prices way above their intrinsic value, generating sooner or later a big correction that will generate cry, gloom, suicides, despair and maybe an economic crysis
crysis: market has real problems, therefore making the price to drop. For exemple: more famous exchange going to bankruptcy, China maybe banning btc in some way and makes btc less atrative for 1 billion ppl market, etc...
For me we have a crysis, not a bubble, what means we are not above the intrinsic btc value, and are not about to crash. I think btc is undervalued atm, but don't know when the Gox and eastern banning fears will let the price goes up again
bubbles: when something gets valued by speculation or other not sustaintable factor, like loans , so getting prices way above their intrinsic value, generating sooner or later a big correction that will generate cry, gloom, suicides, despair and maybe an economic crysis
crysis: market has real problems, therefore making the price to drop. For exemple: more famous exchange going to bankruptcy, China maybe banning btc in some way and makes btc less atrative for 1 billion ppl market, etc...
For me we have a crysis, not a bubble, what means we are not above the intrinsic btc value, and are not about to crash. I think btc is undervalued atm, but don't know when the Gox and eastern banning fears will let the price goes up again
Almost every single bitcoin bubble and crash since inception has been because of some kind of screw-up or intentional manipulation at Mt. Gox. Even the 2013 run-up from Chinese adoption wouldn't have gone so high if it weren't for Mt. Gox stopping fiat transfers. Even now, the potential for 200K (or more) coins to come out of Mt. Gox wallets still hangs over the market.
I wonder. I think there'll need to be some major developments to kick things upwards in an interstellar fashion. I'm guessing most here have spent as much as they're willing to for now.
If it's to be driven by the little guy then the common denomination of units needs to be changed. People here often seem to think this is irrelevant but the perception of whole units vs fractions is straightforward human psychology throughout history.
If the little guy is to be cast aside in favour of institutional madness then it'll be proper Western market infrastructure and some regulation cast in stone.
If it's to be driven by the little guy then the common denomination of units needs to be changed. People here often seem to think this is irrelevant but the perception of whole units vs fractions is straightforward human psychology throughout history.
If the little guy is to be cast aside in favour of institutional madness then it'll be proper Western market infrastructure and some regulation cast in stone.
Interesting how many people think we are going to see a +1000% before the end of the year, lets hope all the voters have some impressive fiat cannons!
Maybe because the poll does not offer a 3-4k choice, so people go for high 4digits
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There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
[pic]
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:
That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.
It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.
No, look again... That graph is gox data, so the end of the last volatility spike is irrelevant. Last time I checked, weekly bbw was quite down again, so by volatility alone the December cycle could end already. But it's not a precise enough indicator to say when a correction is done, it can only tell that well after the fact.
Though i wasn t saying that it s a good indicator to enter
but a good indicator to wait for an entry.Any way, i did enter long ago, when we got under 400.
Interesting how many people think we are going to see a +1000% before the end of the year, lets hope all the voters have some impressive fiat cannons!
[pic]
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
[pic]
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:
That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.
It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.
No, look again... That graph is gox data, so the end of the last volatility spike is irrelevant. Last time I checked, weekly bbw was quite down again, so by volatility alone the December cycle could end already. But it's not a precise enough indicator to say when a correction is done, it can only tell that well after the fact.
there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.
I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.
well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.
By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.
EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world
i think you guys are talking about the über bubble ...
[pic]
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
[pic]
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:
That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.
It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.
[pic]
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
[pic]
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69
I think the longest +/-10% sideway in history is the $5 period from Mar-Jun 2012. Even if $450 is the new $5, I can't imagine we will stay around 400-500 for more than 6 months
Vote results:
"We will see a bubble in the high 4-digit range in 2014" - 86 votes.
Seriously?
You guys are talking $8,000+ for "high 4 digit range".
You all really believe we're going to hit $8,000+ before December?
-B-
"We will see a bubble in the high 4-digit range in 2014" - 86 votes.
Seriously?
You guys are talking $8,000+ for "high 4 digit range".
You all really believe we're going to hit $8,000+ before December?
-B-
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69
Looking at this: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytrackerdetail.php?ac=BTC I think we're seeing the price volatility decrease slightly over time, so I would expect those large multipliers (4x and 16x) to become rarer and smaller.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69
there will eventually be a bubble history seems to repeat and bitcoin isnt any different. there has been 4 or 5 bubbles and now we r going horrizontal and soon vertical !
But do you think it'll happen in 2014 or 2015? and how high do you think we're going?
there will eventually be a bubble history seems to repeat and bitcoin isnt any different. there has been 4 or 5 bubbles and now we r going horrizontal and soon vertical !
I'd actually prefer no bubble in 2014 & then a superbubble in 2015. But doubt very much that we'll see high 5 digits next year. In fact, we mightn't even see low 5 digits, we could be stuck at 4 digits or worse, though I hope I'm wrong.
But doubt very much that we'll see high 5 digits next year. In fact, we mightn't even see low 5 digits, we could be stuck at 4 digits or worse, though I hope I'm wrong. Jump to: