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Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis (Read 110400 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
the main problem with the BETI as I mentioned earlier in this thread is it needs to account for the dilutional effect of all other crypto's

A rough real BETI would be BETI x BTC market dominance.


Yes, that has an effect, but does not change the overall form of the graph , unless BTC loses its dominance entirely (ie below 30%, say).

A loss of dominance for BTC is only likely to happen if another crypto were to take its place in the adoption order.

How are you measuring dominance, Majormax?  Surely, any of us would need fairly genuine kinds of ways of attempting to measure dominance such as usage of the coin or trade volume or even some kind of value that might be gotten from the number of coins that are being hoarded rather than something like marketcap that has demonstrated itself to be manipulated and amorphous bullshit.  So, sure if we are able to get some meaningful comparisons as to how to measure dominance we might be able to come to some kind of meaningful assessment whether either bitcoin is losing its importance or whether some other coin or project might be taking its place.  

At this particular time, there does not really seem to be any project, coin or asset that has any kind of meaningful semblance in respect to either taking market share from bitcoin or replacing its usefulness in some kind of meaningful way....   Yeah, sure we see all kinds of activity in connection to some of the latest crazes that want to remove some people from their money, such as NFTs, and so we cannot completely poo poo the concept that there is some value in using various networks and coins to scam people, and sure some of those practices could end up coming to bitcoin or getting pegged to bitcoin, too.

So I guess my point would be whether any of bitcoin's supposed loss of market share that is measured from time to time or taking over of other coins or projects are really offering anything competitive or meaningful in terms of what bitcoin offers, so in that regard, there could be ways of measuring bitcoin's loss of dominance or the supposed competitiveness of other projects in ways in which bitcoin is down to 5% or 10%, but the comparative measures have hardly any meaning in terms of what is actually being provided.. in the case of bitcoin we should recognize soundness of money, abilities of individuals to personally control their value without third parties and immutability features to be decently important in the ways that bitcoin continues to remain distinguishable from any other projects, coins or asset classes that might claim to be taking market share from bitcoin.

By the way, I do feel that I might be rambling a bit outside of the topic, but surely I did have some feelings of missing you in recent times, Majormax.  Just having some feelings of wanted to harass you a bit in my recollection of your historical gravitations towards conservativisms in terms of bitcoin's upside potentialities that may well be skewing some of your analysis of what is possible in terms of bitcoin, what distinguishes bitcoin from other projects and assets and surely some of our historical discussions involving whether the correct comparisons are being made with bitcoin as compared with other assets or other cryptos.   Wink Wink
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1129
the main problem with the BETI as I mentioned earlier in this thread is it needs to account for the dilutional effect of all other crypto's

A rough real BETI would be BETI x BTC market dominance.


Yes, that has an effect, but does not change the overall form of the graph , unless BTC loses its dominance entirely (ie below 30%, say).

A loss of dominance for BTC is only likely to happen if another crypto were to take its place in the adoption order.
legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
BETI doesn't have to be 100% correct as there are hundreds of factors that influence dominance and adoption... It is an explanation of price as exponential factors take hold over time... the time horizon is somewhat slower than BETI but the end result will be the same, Bitcoin crushing, endlessly crushing
legendary
Activity: 2632
Merit: 1023
the main problem with the BETI as I mentioned earlier in this thread is it needs to account for the dilutional effect of all other crypto's

A rough real BETI would be BETI x BTC market dominance.
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1530
Self made HODLER ✓

Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad

It doesn't work like that.  It would converge on a stagnant price, because it's using a best-fit to a model.

Output of a hacky script to do this today gives this:


a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199




Oh.. ummhh... I reckon I donno what I am talking about... I just used the formula link the OP posted some time ago. I thought that was ok to just run it to update the price.

Thanks for the update! And yeah, if that is the expected price nowadays and it doesn't run away as I thought then it is perfectly possible it will be crossed sometime.
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101
and entering prices manually for the subsequent 3 days, and running again, gives:

a: 0.00270063443633625
b: 0.574351659178193
predicted y: 10.7881510974019
predicted price: 48443
ln(todays price): 9.81465633882951
beti: -0.973
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101
I make BETI -0.977 as of 2020-11-20, using gox then kraken daily data, with cutoff date of 2013-10-06, and filling in gaps (only a few days in each of gox and kraken) by assuming the price stays the same during the gap.

a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199
ln(todays price): 9.80587472366913
beti: -0.977
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101

Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad

It doesn't work like that.  It would converge on a stagnant price, because it's using a best-fit to a model.

Output of a hacky script to do this today gives this:


a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199


legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1530
Self made HODLER ✓

Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
Bitcoin tends to surprise on the upside  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259

Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1530
Self made HODLER ✓
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
Is it a Python script?
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101
I understand that they can be adjusted, in fact, I have put a couple of pairs of parameters that I tested.

Although the opinion of the creator of this thread should be known.

They're not "adjusted".  They just are what they are, based on the regression fit.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.


They are determined on-the-fly by a regression fit, no?  Otherwise it's not BETI as defined by this thread.

I understand that they can be adjusted, in fact, I have put a couple of pairs of parameters that I tested.

Although the opinion of the creator of this thread should be known.
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.


They are determined on-the-fly by a regression fit, no?  Otherwise it's not BETI as defined by this thread.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?

are available on Tradingview
developed by mararn1618

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.

BETI
https://www.tradingview.com/script/DWmkcjKC-BTC-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend-Index/


APROXIMATION
https://es.tradingview.com/script/fmjHtj4q-BTC-Approximation-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend/
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101
any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class  Smiley

I'm not paying tuition for this one ... in which universe did internet adoption look like a logarithmic curve?? Grin

And you don't mean "opposite" but the mathematical term is the "inverse function" (I mean I don't know exactly what you are trying to say here but exponential function and natural logarithm functions are inverses).

Not sure what log base 2 has to do with anything I was talking about. But carry on ...

hint: bitcoin price should not be taken as a proxy for network growth.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.


yeah i remember that....21 btc...

200K + now !!!!

Yep.  Whoaza!!!!
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