Topic: Bubble 2014? Superbubble 2015? No bubbles anymore? - page 2. (Read 3502 times)
Wow. This poll is very encouraging. There is something to be said about the the truth behind the popular vote I believe.
A possible bubble depends upon developers ...
Side Chain; Broken BTC into ‘Bits’...
Side Chain; Broken BTC into ‘Bits’...
I'd suspect a move in the 400 dollar range is a good possibility. not sure it is being called a bubble but I guess It has something to do with the volatility of the market.
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
What about channel and long term support line? This is exactly the same. Traders dont usually draw an average trendline because they look for entry and exit. But when you are in to hold, it makes sens. I don t understand why people can t understand his views. His realistics with his prediction, and one of a few who seems to know what he is doing... It s not because *100 look unrealistic that it is. Bitcoin has already proven that multiple times. In long term, it can only go 2 ways and he knows it very well.Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
That s really close with EW. I agree with you, except that you don t know if the current big wave up since 2011 is finished. We could really see a huge bubble this year or next year as the merchant adoption rate has been the highest seen until today. I have read that it is slower now, it is understanding with the current price trend.
Your chart is misleading because it is mtgox price ( for a long history i assume ) and the crash of 2014 is still a consolidation state. A persitant break of 400$ will tell otherwise.
edit: when i read your posts, i feel that you think to be a "real" trader. You must be more carefull when you state things. I m sure you don t believe to be so.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453)
The new Proof-of-Resource alts may eat into the BTC market cap if they deliver on what they promise. 2015 may be the year that bitcoin starts seeing real competition. The fact that big money is mostly investing in companies that support cryptos in general and not BTC in particular supports this theory.
Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
Expected price is 666
That's where it should be today if it followed a nice clean rise in value. So currently BTC is undervalued, or not in a bubble.
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
Sorry i don t understand your drawing. Looks to me like random bulls run and random bubles. I agree that the 2011 buble was unique until today, but the crash that follow was just in relation with the size of the buble.
You can clarify your view by defining "bulls run" ans "buble"
To me, it all looks like bulls run in adoption. The better the run, the better the crash.
Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
Expected price is 666
Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing. It looks like this correction might be turning around.
Next bubble is gonna feel so fucking unreal
Gonna feel nice to get the 7figgy
Gonna feel nice to get the 7figgy
Bubbles, bubbles, so many bubbles.
I voted for the first option but I wouldn't call that a bubble.
Bubleeeeeeeeeeeees..... My bubles!
...But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it...
It's definitively going to be a dinosaur! Dinosaur patterns are simply the best.
you know that all birds are direct descendants of dinosaurs? So yeah why not
...But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it...
It's definitively going to be a dinosaur! Dinosaur patterns are simply the best.
there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.
I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.
well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.
By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.
EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world
first bubble was actually about a 30x increase (from the consolidation levels of $1->31), while last year's run was a 5->250, a 50x increase, so that would qualify as the bigger bubble. The most recent one was weak, going only 12x from 100 to 1200, but it also had a very short consolidation period of several months only. I think this new one will possibly also have very short consolidation period and "low" fuel resulting in only 10-15x growth from the $400 base. But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it - it runs differently every time, but never boring.
If you recall, the biggest runup from $5 to $250 was started with two large crashes on the way up, bigger one caused by piratefund I think, where the price lost 50% in one day but even that didn't stop the rally much, only postponed it by one month. When it runs, it ignores FUD.
Jump to: