I don't have access to my marked up chart at the moment, but even the most recent high of 25.7 was at the top of the trend channel, and it has slightly corrected since then with possibly more on the way. Based on that, I don't think there was a breakout, but the oscillator is possibly showing the increased exhaustion of moving higher at this point which worries me. I think we've got a short term correction to the bottom of the trend channel before anything else. My answer to your question is dependent on whether or not that small correction happens.
Please post that marked up chart when it becomes available.
Here you go, it's actually fared even better than I thought it had earlier. Price has so far perfectly adhered to the channel:
As you can see, we established support and resistance between 1/24/13 and 1/26/13. An ascending price channel with support and resistance was confirmed between 1/31/13 and 2/2/13, and today we tested (and so far kept) the upper channel resistance around 25.75.
I had more stuff on here earlier, but my chart got reset. Regardless, this is the point I was making.
You have three tops here - you choose to draw the line through the current top and the middle one - but miss a bit the bottom one, if you draw it through the bottom one and the middle one - then you'd see that there was a break out, however small. If you always draw the line through the current top then you'll never have a breakout by definition.
Nice theory, but no, that line was actually drawn BEFORE the current top existed. In fact that "line" was drawn when price was still around 24.30 or something like that. the "miss a bit of the bottom one" is 90% wick that is exposed above the line. These "lines" are drawn as parallel rays, not free-floating lines so there isn't any way I could have just chosen whether or not to change the angle of one of them to fit the chart.
Furthermore, the top resistance is based off of the bottom channel, as I use a parallel ray tool to draw the bottom support, which then duplicated the bottom ray's angle and I moved that up top so as best to fit the bottom and middle resistance. This is the best fit, and it has applied perfectly. Go ahead, check my logic.
REGARDLESS, I wouldn't be worried about a five pip "breakout" anyway. That's not a breakout, that's a
cocktease waste of breath. Especially since I purposely included the top channel resistance from before the current one, so you can see how there was a little breakout there that didn't matter even the slightest bit because it tanked shortly thereafter.
And, seeing as how price has adhered to my price channel, while "breaking out" of your top resistance, I'd say of the two of us that I have the more accurate markup at the moment.
You're entirely reading into it too much. Markets don't perfectly adhere to lines most of the time. They over and under-shoot. There's no reason to make sure you draw your lines from perfect top to perfect top and perfect bottom to perfect bottom, etc. Because markets just don't to that. If markets worked off of pure technicals, bitcoin itself would drop down to 0.01 and 100.00 multiple times a day. The markups are to show general trends, they are to show ideas and hive-mind mentality in markets. A difference of a few cents from where you thought support and resistance are and where price actually reversed is not significant most of the time.
What does "worry" me about my resistance level on this chart is that it looks like we might have another loose inverse (bullish) head and shoulders forming with the neck line which would significantly break out above my resistance level. Alternatively, it could be a gartley in which case it would tank down and confirm my resistance. Image:
