Sometimes being familiar with cryptos works against us.
The competing digital currencies are fiat, BTC, and LTC. Everybody thinks Litecoins are beaten down to death because they look atrocious next to BTC, but they've actually held their own or gained vs the worst of the bunch...USDs. It doesn't matter how overvalued we BTC old hands think they are currently, people just finding out about them look at the all time high and think they're getting a bargain...even at $25.75.
I know this happens because I was recently contacted by an old friend, who wanted to ask me if I was into those "bitcoin thingies" he recently heard about and obtained. My response was WTF! I TOLD YOU TO BUY BTCs OVER A YEAR AGO!
Topic: bubble or bulltrap? - page 3. (Read 7307 times)
matt, I like how you stay bearish for what, 3rd year now, even though history is trying hard to teach you a lesson, but you just would not listen would you? 
what history? you mean where bitcoin was created and worth nothing...
then it ran up to 32...
then it fell down to 2...
and now it appears to be running up again...
and if history repeats...
He's a miner. He can make a pretty nice profit with much lower risk by being bearish. Not my style, but I imagine my life is very different from his.
matt, I like how you stay bearish for what, 3rd year now, even though history is trying hard to teach you a lesson, but you just would not listen would you?
what history? you mean where bitcoin was created and worth nothing...
then it ran up to 32...
then it fell down to 2...
and now it appears to be running up again...
and if history repeats...
matt, I like how you stay bearish for what, 3rd year now, even though history is trying hard to teach you a lesson, but you just would not listen would you?
I am quite confident there are many more suckers out there who will be happy to buy bitcoins at an even higher price.
I will patiently wait until they blow their load.
I will patiently wait until they blow their load.
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.
you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.
Did you just say long squeeze?
no, i'm just pointing out a fact. but sure, if ppl get too overleveraged to the long side and we top out with a prolonged down swing, then of course they might be forced to liquidate.
what i'm saying is that Bitcoin doesn't live in its own little world. its directly hinged at the hip with fiat and politics. this is one of the main purposes of my newsletter; to tie in real world economics with what's happening in Bitcoin and to help us understand how one affects the other.
- How many ultra-early adopters own wallets with upwards of 100K BTC?
None? At least none with 100k wallets except for this one here: http://blockchain.info/address/1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a
Could be split of course for the rest of the early adopters. But generally, I tend to believe in simpler versions. So - few or none.
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.
you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin. nor are you considering how leveraged other aspects of their lives might be.
for instance, if someone bought Bitcoins with cash but also leveraged up to speculate on 10 houses, their Bitcoin stash may be very vulnerable to liquidation due to a downturn in the housing market as the speculator scrambles to raise cash for mortgages gone bad.
Well, the argument from "imponderables" applies to pretty much any kind of investment (gold, silver, shares of Microsoft in 1987). There are a few other unknowns in the Bitcoin environment:
- How many ultra-early adopters own wallets with upwards of 100K BTC?
- How much does any one of them really want to buy a house?
- How likely is it that the hard drive in the laptop on which they originally mined those coins never went tits up?
And so on and so forth...
However, on the "ponderables" side, Bitcoin, as an investment mechanism, is on the face of it an equity based play.
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.
you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.
Did you just say long squeeze?
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.
you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin. nor are you considering how leveraged other aspects of their lives might be.
for instance, if someone bought Bitcoins with cash but also leveraged up to speculate on 10 houses, their Bitcoin stash may be very vulnerable to liquidation due to a downturn in the housing market as the speculator scrambles to raise cash for mortgages gone bad.
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
you disagree?
I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.
Heh... is it true that you've stopped beating your wife? Sometimes, it's all in how you pose the question, isn't it?
Maybe the market is correcting as we speak... it's just correcting upwards.
The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more than $2.
There is nothing really significant about that high mark, since the supply has increased substantially since then. The valuation of all bitcoins is already higher than when the price was $32 per BTC:
https://blockchain.info/nl/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
My guess is that Pirate finally ran out of coins, or stopped selling
The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more less than $2.
FTFY. It was $1.99998
The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more than $2.
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
you disagree?
I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.
uh, that's not how oscillators work. unless you're talking about the price data?
'a line' doing anything means wildly different things depending on what that line represents. there are indicators which when trending up indicate downward pressure...
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
you disagree?
I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.
I don't have access to my marked up chart at the moment, but even the most recent high of 25.7 was at the top of the trend channel, and it has slightly corrected since then with possibly more on the way. Based on that, I don't think there was a breakout, but the oscillator is possibly showing the increased exhaustion of moving higher at this point which worries me. I think we've got a short term correction to the bottom of the trend channel before anything else. My answer to your question is dependent on whether or not that small correction happens.
the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
you disagree?
oscilators shmoscilators...
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
bubble or bulltrap? that was quite a loaded question. Why discount a possibility of it simply being a trending market? Wishful thinking much?
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).
bubble or bulltrap? that was quite a loaded question. Why discount a possibility of it simply being a trending market? Wishful thinking much?
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