You call that math?
"Past performance does not guarantee future results" Did they teach you that in your Finance major? I can give you virtually infinite number of investing strategies that were successful in the past. Once that WILL BE succesful in the future are rather very different animal.
1. Yes, I know that full well. But past performance informs future decisions as best as it can. I hope you know that, because we AREN'T monkeys throwing darts. Any moron that goes into investing without looking at the historical nature of it is just that, a moron. I hope you've been taught THAT much.
2. I said I would put the math up later IF I HAD TIME. That requires a significant investment of my time which I can't do right now. Pictures are quick.
Now show me the math describing human emotions, fear and greed specifically. Why do you think that you will be able to pick tops and bottoms consistently when there are real money on the line. Theory and practice are two very different things.
You, like other greedy and then fearful investors think it's about picking tops and bottoms, which it is not. It's about catching more of the upside than you catch of the downside. Which requires a whole different set of theories, models, and ideologies which you are obviously not familiar with.
Explain how come wast majority of investment funds with all their smarts are unable to outperform S&P.
"A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts."
http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2002/05/08/5144/I would think that a monkey throwing dart into calendar would do better than to pick tops and bottoms, on whatever time frame, than wast majority of Bitcoiners (those not extremely lucky ones).
2. That's because you have no idea what actual long-term investing is about. Go invest 100% in the S&P, please. I'll be waiting for you to commit suicide the next time it crashes because of how great the risk is. The biggest part of investment management is RISK MANAGEMENT. Those managers aren't just there to earn you the greatest return over time, but to help make sure that you can still afford a bowl of oatmeal the next time the market crashes. Those managers may not earn a greater total return than the S&P, but a good manager will damn sure not lose as much as the S&P when it goes down.