Topic: bubble or bulltrap? (Read 7246 times)

i try to post my analysis publicly, free of charge, because i don't intend to be a shepherd of lemmings, but rather a purveyor of information. subscription-analyses suffer from numerous conflicts of interest.

as such, if anyone benefitted from my early warnings and profited from shorting the knife, or increased their btc holdings on the way back up, please contribute and i will continue to provide my analysis publicly on the forums. i do put a lot of work into it, and i've been getting a lot of backlash from the rampant bullish sentiments here. it would be nice to know that my voice is heard and appreciated.

--the bear bitcointalk deserves
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It's obviously a bull trap.  But with the next downturn at around 100 USD.

not quite

Now we had a correction bears were longing for so much, sic. Biz as usual now.

One hell of a stiletto indeed. Very curious. We still have that upper resistance to deal with, though. Curious, curious. I definitely didn't expect that quick of a move back up.

I dunno .. that could be a one hell of a huge stilletto ... means we are heading higher, like much higher north of $40.

I was expecting correction to $20, but that might be all we get is what we saw today. Next stop $32 ... choo-choo.

so it's looking more like a beartrap now, huh?

i'm referring here to a misleading bullish breakout of a price channel, which has the same psychological effect. bulls buy for renewed rally, but the price just needed the momentum to correct.

anyway, with the buying pressure so strong (we've already retraced 100% of the correction!), we may indeed get a bubble top after all.

A classic sweep stop

and the verdict: bulltrap

great minds think alike.

I'm with you on this one Cypher, although I'm leveraged short on the S&P (as I suspect you might be too) so it's not really a perfect hedge for me.  I'm hoping to win on both sides of the trade but we'll see, haven't quit my day job.... yet.

youareanidiot.org

Not if you are a king - you can just make it legal in your jurisdiction.

  No that is very high risk. You are right I dont need BTC with or without it I will be fine. My business is salvaging pleasure boats. I buy them with bad transoms or engines or out drives then strip them down for parts.  

Your business is gambling or drug smuggling? Since you are saying "zero risk", I can safely deduce that you are a king of some small african country, smuggling drugs using submarines. 

Congratulations, you really don't need bitcoins then!

I like this guy he has a brain. It is easier for people to be mentally lazy. So just saying BTC will always go up and that you can have a financial plan that no intellegence is required for is popular. When BTC hit 20 or so. I took all of my money out of it and put it into inventory for my business. I get a 300-400% return with nearly zero risk. So you take advantage of wealth cycles. When the price stabilizes I will get back in.   

here's the best long term hedged pair trade for you guys:  long Bitcoin:short S&P.

edit:  there's a very good chance you'll win on both ends of this trade.

You make too many incorrect assumptions about other people my friend. Remember there is an ass in assumption. I think I'll postpone this conversation now ... get back to me in a decade or two.

1. Yes, I know that full well. But past performance informs future decisions as best as it can. I hope you know that, because we AREN'T monkeys throwing darts. Any moron that goes into investing without looking at the historical nature of it is just that, a moron. I hope you've been taught THAT much.

2. I said I would put the math up later IF I HAD TIME. That requires a significant investment of my time which I can't do right now. Pictures are quick.


You, like other greedy and then fearful investors think it's about picking tops and bottoms, which it is not. It's about catching more of the upside than you catch of the downside. Which requires a whole different set of theories, models, and ideologies which you are obviously not familiar with.


2. That's because you have no idea what actual long-term investing is about. Go invest 100% in the S&P, please. I'll be waiting for you to commit suicide the next time it crashes because of how great the risk is. The biggest part of investment management is RISK MANAGEMENT. Those managers aren't just there to earn you the greatest return over time, but to help make sure that you can still afford a bowl of oatmeal the next time the market crashes. Those managers may not earn a greater total return than the S&P, but a good manager will damn sure not lose as much as the S&P when it goes down.

You call that math?

"Past performance does not guarantee future results" Did they teach you that in your Finance major? I can give you virtually infinite number of investing strategies that were successful in the past. Once that WILL BE succesful in the future are rather very different animal.

Now show me the math describing human emotions, fear and greed specifically. Why do you think that you will be able to pick tops and bottoms consistently when there are real money on the line. Theory and practice are two very different things.

Explain how come wast majority of investment funds with all their smarts and financial majors are unable to outperform S&P.

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2002/05/08/5144/

I would think that a monkey throwing dart into calendar would do better than to pick tops and bottoms, on whatever time frame, than wast majority of Bitcoiners (those not extremely lucky ones).