Topic: (Bustabit) How often do long streaks of red come? - page 4. (Read 624 times)
Not on bustabit but have played on some other crypto casinos, thing is if you play (read: gamble) for hours they are far more frequent then one can imagine.
With not much details mentioned by OP the payout to be assumed here is 2.00 since that's the default settings on most or nearly all bitcoin casinos when you start betting.
Like the others have said predicting long streaks wouldn't help and I agree with them because even if you do know the percentages it could work against you because there can be certain days where these streaks happen more frequent than usual.
It's most likely to be crash since the title mentioned bustabit.
Like the others have said predicting long streaks wouldn't help and I agree with them because even if you do know the percentages it could work against you because there can be certain days where these streaks happen more frequent than usual.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
Having 15-20 red in a row is not something extraordinary but first, be specific if this is all about dice or roulette. 
Please correct me if I'm wrong. In terms of computing probability you will have to take into consideration the number of times that you will roll, which means that individual rolls, although seemingly independent from each other, are actually somehow connected. Although pre-rolling is a myth to me, the rule of probability will tell you that after rolling 19 times in a row and you got red in all of them, that 20th roll has a very high probability of giving you a green. Even if that next roll has 50% chance of winning, since we take into consideration the 19 consecutive reds in the previous rolls, the probability for a green is high.
You are wrong. This is the classic Gambler's fallacy.You are correct in saying you have to take in to consideration the number of times that you will roll, but only before you have started rolling. Once you have started rolling, previous rolls make no difference whatsoever to future rolls. If you've rolled 19 reds in a row, you might have only had a chance of 0.001% to do that before you started, but there is a 100% chance that just happened, because you just did it. The chance of the 20th roll being red or green is therefore exactly the same as the first roll being red or green.
This line of thinking is common, but completely false. It leads to the creation of betting systems such as Martingale, where people think "As long as I keep going, I'll definitely get a green eventually". Each roll is completely independent of other rolls, and the Martingale system bankrupts people daily.
Thanks for the link. And for the lesson.
I cannot argue against what is proven in arithmetic as it is an absolute logic. However, is it not also backed by arithmetic that if you make 500 flips or rolls, for example, at 50% chance of winning, even if the results would not exactly balance out against each other, it will definitely be not far from each other, or the discrepancy will be at the minimal level, right? It is close to impossible that out of 500 rolls, 400 turns out red and only 100 turns out green.
"As long as I keep going, I'll definitely get a green eventually." I guess this is correct, although your balance will have to be able to support every next roll in order for you to eventually arrive at that point. Although it is possible for a fair flip or a roll to give you 100 consecutive red, it is not probable. The main problem with Martingale is that it requires an amount of resources that is almost unlimited.
Please correct me if I'm wrong. In terms of computing probability you will have to take into consideration the number of times that you will roll, which means that individual rolls, although seemingly independent from each other, are actually somehow connected. Although pre-rolling is a myth to me, the rule of probability will tell you that after rolling 19 times in a row and you got red in all of them, that 20th roll has a very high probability of giving you a green. Even if that next roll has 50% chance of winning, since we take into consideration the 19 consecutive reds in the previous rolls, the probability for a green is high.
You are wrong. This is the classic Gambler's fallacy.You are correct in saying you have to take in to consideration the number of times that you will roll, but only before you have started rolling. Once you have started rolling, previous rolls make no difference whatsoever to future rolls. If you've rolled 19 reds in a row, you might have only had a chance of 0.001% to do that before you started, but there is a 100% chance that just happened, because you just did it. The chance of the 20th roll being red or green is therefore exactly the same as the first roll being red or green.
This line of thinking is common, but completely false. It leads to the creation of betting systems such as Martingale, where people think "As long as I keep going, I'll definitely get a green eventually". Each roll is completely independent of other rolls, and the Martingale system bankrupts people daily.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
You can calculate the odds quite easily. Simply raise the odds of each red happening to the power of the amount of times that you want to account for.
However, one of the more common fallacies in this area is the fact that rolls are not dependent on each other. A lot of people do prerolls and all that in the hopes that they can somehow increase their odds of winning, but what they don't realize is that prerolls don't matter at all because each roll is independent of the other.
That's why I think it's a bit redundant to ask this question to somehow come up with a strategy. Prerolling 19 times doesn't increase the chances of your 20th roll hitting.
Please correct me if I'm wrong. In terms of computing probability you will have to take into consideration the number of times that you will roll, which means that individual rolls, although seemingly independent from each other, are actually somehow connected. Although pre-rolling is a myth to me, the rule of probability will tell you that after rolling 19 times in a row and you got red in all of them, that 20th roll has a very high probability of giving you a green. Even if that next roll has 50% chance of winning, since we take into consideration the 19 consecutive reds in the previous rolls, the probability for a green is high.
Every outcome on bustabit is a series of 10 million pre-generated numbers whose median is 1.98.
So, there could be any number of reds or greens as it's totally random. AFAIK, hypothetically, there could be thousands of reds without a green.
But the largest numbers of red we've seen is around 20 or something till date.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
You can calculate the odds quite easily. Simply raise the odds of each red happening to the power of the amount of times that you want to account for.
However, one of the more common fallacies in this area is the fact that rolls are not dependent on each other. A lot of people do prerolls and all that in the hopes that they can somehow increase their odds of winning, but what they don't realize is that prerolls don't matter at all because each roll is independent of the other.
That's why I think it's a bit redundant to ask this question to somehow come up with a strategy. Prerolling 19 times doesn't increase the chances of your 20th roll hitting.
Please correct me if I'm wrong. In terms of computing probability you will have to take into consideration the number of times that you will roll, which means that individual rolls, although seemingly independent from each other, are actually somehow connected. Although pre-rolling is a myth to me, the rule of probability will tell you that after rolling 19 times in a row and you got red in all of them, that 20th roll has a very high probability of giving you a green. Even if that next roll has 50% chance of winning, since we take into consideration the 19 consecutive reds in the previous rolls, the probability for a green is high.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
You can calculate the odds quite easily. Simply raise the odds of each red happening to the power of the amount of times that you want to account for.
However, one of the more common fallacies in this area is the fact that rolls are not dependent on each other. A lot of people do prerolls and all that in the hopes that they can somehow increase their odds of winning, but what they don't realize is that prerolls don't matter at all because each roll is independent of the other.
That's why I think it's a bit redundant to ask this question to somehow come up with a strategy. Prerolling 19 times doesn't increase the chances of your 20th roll hitting.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go?
It is chance, so you can work it out.The formula for doing so is simply xy, where x is your probability of losing an individual roll, and y is the number of rolls you makes.
So for example, lets say you go for go for a payout of "2x". Bustabit has a 1% house edge, meaning you have a 49.5% chance to win, and therefore, a 50.5% chance to lose. The probability of losing is therefore 0.505.
0.50510 is 0.0010787..., or 0.11%. So at a payout of 2x, you have a 0.11% chance of losing 10 times in a row. That becomes 0.004% for 15 losses in a row, and 0.0001% for 20 losses in a row.
At a payout of "3x", your chance of losing is 0.67, so you have a 0.25% chance of losing 15 times in a row. At a payout of "5x", you have a 3.65% chance of losing 15 times in a row.
As far i know long streaks of red situations belongs to dice game and bustabit was crash game which is every rolls will always be crashed but maybe the difference is from the payout itself whether it low or high however talking about losing streaks i think it will depend the percentages of payout itself that if you use low chance of win then you wil met more losing streaks and if you set your payout to high percentages then the losing streaks itself will be so rare
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
Having 15-20 red in a row is not something extraordinary but first, be specific if this is all about dice or roulette. If you believed that martingale will work, well it doesn't work. Logically speaking, it will increase your input that continues to reduce your chance of losing everything. The fact, it doesn't make you win and the truth is always the house will win. Don't think too much of profit when you are in gambling, just enjoy the game and if you will win it is better. To be honest, I'm not that kind of gambler who doubling the bets just to cover losses.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
You need to be more specific, bustabit is a crash game where you can choose which payout you are going to play.
15-20 red streak on which payout you are referring to? 2x, 3x, or higher or even lower than 2x?
I'm not a bustabit player as I do not really like crash game, but if you have stake account, then you can get the exact calculation about the odds of what you are looking for by using the chatbot.
For example you want to check the x2 they would show you the percent of provability that it could get that high in every game.
And I also agree that OP should be more specific on which multiplier is he/she is aiming for.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
It will depend on what payout you've set on a particular round.Knowing that each bettor would have different selection on when they would cash out.If you do talk on busting on 1.00 or 1.01 or 1.1 payout then no one knows because everything is random.Theres no such thing about fix or patterns
when it comes to losing streaks but to answer you out it will really just vary on multipliers youve chosen but expect long losing streaks would be
probable on high multipliers ofcourse.
Nahh, martingale strategy never works, and even with a big bankroll, you can get broke LOL. I experience and see in some gambling forum that they are experiencing 20-34 losing streak in 2x odds, that is a lot of money even your base bet will be one satoshi. No strategy works, it's better if you will gamble blindly and trust the luck instead of gambling using any strategy, and in the long term, it will just wipe your bankroll. Just enjoy the game and bet base on your guts.
People do not understand mathematics in their head;)
I like martingale but I know I can bust any time and I have in the past. But I do like having a bankroll that can last 20 streaks (not necessarily x2). And then I bet normally and wait for a bad streak, then I start martingale. Such as on roulette. If I see 5 reds in a row, then I start martingale on black.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
First thing first, bustabit is a legit site and it is not specific to them. If you create a similar algorithm yourself and try that then also the probability to having a red streak on a certain multiplier is mathematically found but that is again a probable outcome or the most commonly seen outcomes. It may not be the same when you play and in rare cases you might find that the outcome is not close the calculated result.I have tried the Seuntjie's dicebot !odds command on Primedice and Stake chatrooms. It gives you an idea of when the red streak will come but again it is not absolute. But I am yet to see any commands from Seuntjie for how long the streak may be.
This according to me dependent on your luck. You may get a nice green streak on a high multiplier (be sure to stop when this happens and cash the profit) OR, you may get a huge red streak on a very small multiplier.
I have been playing enough to witness a streak of win as well as a streak of loss to know now. Well, from my experience and play, I would say, losing streak come more often than winning streak, out of 100, 10 would be winning streak and 20 would be losing streak. That's how it is, generally, because my luck is bad :/
That is a very generic question.The strike of reds can continue to a much higher degree than 20 lost rolls.The reason is because these rolls are controlled by computer software which can be random and can even be 100 consecutive reds although this rarely is the case.Don’t rely on statistics in a game of luck.
There's no way you can measure when a red streak is going to come. If there was a way to cheat the system, casinos would go bankrupt.
The more you want to earn, the smaller your chances are. It goes vice versa. The tricky part is that you can earn 1% of your balance by risking 100% of it. Say you bet 1BTC. You risk 9500$ for a $95 win.
If you lose once $9500, it's bad. Casinos are made for THEM to make profit, not you. So if you go for higher profits, you have to bet dozens, hundreds or thousands of times the same amount in order to win.
If greed takes you over or if you are very unlucky, it could be a huge loss for you in any scenario.
The more you want to earn, the smaller your chances are. It goes vice versa. The tricky part is that you can earn 1% of your balance by risking 100% of it. Say you bet 1BTC. You risk 9500$ for a $95 win.
If you lose once $9500, it's bad. Casinos are made for THEM to make profit, not you. So if you go for higher profits, you have to bet dozens, hundreds or thousands of times the same amount in order to win.
If greed takes you over or if you are very unlucky, it could be a huge loss for you in any scenario.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
If there's a people can guess that for sure they became rich for betting on bustabit or in any platform but seriously those red streak is unpredictable that's why it's called gambling and just bet what you can afford to lose if you cannot take to lose in that games but maybe a simple analysis on the game result could help, remember big bank roll can prolong your games and give a high chances of winnings.
For sure it will not work since it's been studied strategy and this will not work today but what I mean here is if you got a big bank roll still you can regain back what you lose if you put your bet on good place and you cannot do this again if you balance is so low and drained already that's why we should not take gambling seriously since we might end up broke and just enjoy the game and bet what we can afford to lose since this is much advisable to anyone.
Its been discussed hundreds or even thousands time already. Your bankroll wont help to make martingale works, even if you have unlimited bankroll, it wont make you rich by using martingale. Why? All casinos has their own limit of profit per bet, if you have unlimited bankroll then you hit the max profit per bet while doing martingale, what you can do??
Would you say that it is better to start betting with small amount while you have unlimited bankroll to avoid reaching the max profir per bet? If so, do you think it is worth to play with small amount for martingale while at the same time you have unlimited bankroll?
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
If there's a people can guess that for sure they became rich for betting on bustabit or in any platform but seriously those red streak is unpredictable that's why it's called gambling and just bet what you can afford to lose if you cannot take to lose in that games but maybe a simple analysis on the game result could help, remember big bank roll can prolong your games and give a high chances of winnings.
For sure it will not work since it's been studied strategy and this will not work today but what I mean here is if you got a big bank roll still you can regain back what you lose if you put your bet on good place and you cannot do this again if you balance is so low and drained already that's why we should not take gambling seriously since we might end up broke and just enjoy the game and bet what we can afford to lose since this is much advisable to anyone.
Does anyone have any idea how often let's say 15-20 red streak come and go? Would like people who have somewhat of an idea, thanks!
If there's a people can guess that for sure they became rich for betting on bustabit or in any platform but seriously those red streak is unpredictable that's why it's called gambling and just bet what you can afford to lose if you cannot take to lose in that games but maybe a simple analysis on the game result could help, remember big bank roll can prolong your games and give a high chances of winnings.
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