Topic: bustabit – The original crash game - page 103. (Read 61171 times)

Ryan already made some good points, so I'll just add a few things


Of course there is no way for me to tell with any certainty whether investors actually have the the funds they claim to have offsite or are just abusing the offsite system to leverage. But based on their behavior when high rollers won a lot, I do think that the offsite system is largely being used as intended.

Besides reducing your counterparty risk, freeing up liquidity is the other big advantage the offsite investment offers you as an investor. You could expose the same sum of money to both bankrolls of bustabit and bustadice at the same time for instance.


If you've set a recovery email address we'll send you an email when you are margin-called. Currently investors aren't notified when they are close to being margin-called, however.


Without leverage, the maximum risk per player and round is 0.75% of the bankroll (1x Kelly). If a player were to exceed that he is forced to cash out, but other players aren't. The maximum risk for the entire round is 1.125% (at worst 1.5x Kelly).

If you don't leverage, you will always be guaranteed a positive expected bankroll growth. But if you leverage by 2x you are risking 3x Kelly in the worst case scenario of a super whale use multiple accounts, so your expected bankroll growth may be negative in the worst case scenario.

I understand the purpose of allowing offsite investments, but I bet it's mostly used as a proxy to use a higher Kelly multiple (leverage). I doubt people investing are worried about counterparty risk. If we didn't trust Devans, we just wouldn't invest at all. If I'm willing to invest say 2 BTC, because I like the investment and I trust Devans, why would I invest just 1 and have to spend all day watching for whales and be ready to deposit the other BTC if things go wrong (and still trust Devans at that point, which some investors wouldn't as they may be suspicious)?

Even considering that some leverage was optimal, having to manually adjust it and monitor the investment makes it way less attractive than if it was automatic. Allowing investors to choose to risk up to 0.5, 1, 2, etc. Kelly (as you explained in a previous post) would be way better and we could stop that "offsite" farce. I think there was already a casino using that method, Safedice if I remind correctly.

Right now, using 1:2 leverage would mean that a max bet would be 2 times the Kelly criterion? I read mentions to people multiaccounting involving a higher risk for the casino, but I didn't understand that part well.

At the moment, probably the max offsite if I had to guess. But keep two things in mind:

a) It's very explicitly not a leverage system, it's an offsite system. It's designed to allow you to keep money in your own cold storage, while "risking" it. If you use it as a leverage system, you're probably going to have a bad time.

b) What is "ideal" based on the recent betting, might not be ideal going forward. The last time there was some serious whale action on bustabit, the site profit was 747 BTC and then got totally smashed and finally recovered to 613 BTC. Which makes it look like investors were hurt a bit. But in reality I was invested in that time period, and made a profit. The reason? Some of the overly leveraged investors got margin called on the way down, and the remaining investors made a profit on the up.

Really the entire purpose of offsite investing is to reduce your counter-party risk. But it doesn't do a super great job against maliciousness (e.g. if the house was intentionally draining the bankroll) as to use the offsite system properly you should be topping up your investment. But it provides very strong protection if the site were to suddenly vanish, or something of that nature.

Considering the distribution of bets, what would be the optimal leverage ratio? If people were constantly max betting, then no leverage should be used, but the fact that most bets are smaller (safer for investors), should make some degree of leverage optimal.

I think. That is the statistics are clearer.

Yeah, that's correct

So about 211000 BTC have been wagered just since February?

Exactly. In practice it’s mostly used to leverage, so you are forced to do it too. At least here it is “just” 3, not like in other casinos...

Users' stats such as net profit and total wagered include version 1. The figures you see on our statistics page also include version 1 unless it says version 2 only.

That’s interesting, I didn’t know there was a game with positive EV around. Are there any other games with positive EV (other than potentially poker)?

Are all the statistics shown on the website from Version 2, or just some of them?

You can find an open source script to verify rolls at https://jsfiddle.net/Dexon95/2fmuxLza/embedded/result/. To see the source code just click on "Edit in JSFiddle" at the top right.

There is no Game Verification Script on github.com. There is no trust to it. Service offline for honesty check is necessary.With a chain everything is all right and with result, I am not sure.
I am not a programmer. In (Node.js) I don't understand.

Thanks! I have checked a chain more than 100K of games. Intervention wasn't!
Justice is proved.

Few in bitcoinland will admit they are wrong even when faced with evidence. You have my respect.

Some clarification of my previous post: The function parameter "seed" is the game's hash in binary form and "salt" is the salt that was chosen during the seeding event in textual form (0000000000000000004d6ec16dafe9d8370958664c1dc422f452892264c59526).

To calculate the multiplier from the hash of game #1 for example:

The reference function (Node.js) that calculates the multiplier from a game's hash is published in our seeding event thread:

Devans is still a question. How to convert HASH to Busted?I did not find this information.

I respect that a lot. It was good discussing the system in chat with you (assuming that was you).


Happy to help! Both fields should work as expected–even in simulation mode, where it will use your simulated balance and net profit.

All the guys. I am convinced that everything is honest. I delete my negative comments.