Buy Bitcoin and hold it: 180% annual yield on average since the first halving

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Quote from: Kittygalore on August 13, 2021, 11:43:03 AM

Quote from: asrinur on August 13, 2021, 10:13:43 AM

We dare not make realistic predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the next 20 years. The price of Bitcoin depends on too many factors. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high, and the Bitcoin price is currently at $41k. Usually, it is a better idea to buy cryptocurrencies when they are in a downturn. However, we all remember how it was too late to buy BTC when it was $20, $100, $1000, $20,000, etc. If the estimates come true, the price may run into millions of dollars. Bitcoin's potential is definitely strong.

What OP did isn't wrong, it's an estimate plus it's just a prediction and it's alright for a prediction to go wrong. Of course, it's good buy crypto when it's on a downturn but if you think about it, any time can be the right time especially if you're aiming for the long-term.

While what the OP did is interesting this is something that cannot be maintained, so some sort of adjustment is needed to give a more realistic projection.

However at the end of the day it does not matter, what matters is that on average the price of bitcoin is going up each year and as such the best moment to enter the market was yesterday, but since that is not possible then the best next moment is to enter the market now, after all as things are going you will still need to buy bitcoin in the future anyway so why not do it now when the price is cheap?

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Quote from: Review Master on August 13, 2021, 02:23:08 PM

most of the users will buy it and leave this industry when they'll be on profits. But only those will keep hodling bitcoin even if bitcoin hits $1 million or more who knows the potential of bitcoin. So it's just a matter of time as more users will be filtered through the cycle. But adoption won't stop in the upcoming days which is the best thing for bitcoin to hit those milestone, IMHO. Wink

I am sure there will be people who are holding when bitcoin hits a million dollars. The question is not if there will be one, the question is how long will they be holding when that happens?

There are people who are holding now, but it could be a person who bought at 40k, or it could be someone who bought at $40 as well, anyone who holds it since it was $40 made enough money to retire, even if they bought just few of them, you may end up retiring on few hundred thousand dollars if you want to live a small life and can use that smartly, after all in most nations 10-15k is yearly salary for billions around the world, that means with 100k you have 10 years, with 400k you have 40 years, that is retirement money easily. Same here, if you can buy now, and hold until 1 million dollars then you can definitely be called a good holder, if you buy at 950k and hold when it is 1 million, that is not a big deal.

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Quote from: Review Master on July 30, 2021, 01:36:53 PM

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Good analysis brother, the problem is that many people will not want to for a long period of time to make it big. People mostly believe that the same way it happened to Bitcoin from $1>$44,000 as at the time of this post it can happen to other Altcoins which is not likely.

Indeed, most of the users will buy it and leave this industry when they'll be on profits. But only those will keep hodling bitcoin even if bitcoin hits $1 million or more who knows the potential of bitcoin. So it's just a matter of time as more users will be filtered through the cycle. But adoption won't stop in the upcoming days which is the best thing for bitcoin to hit those milestone, IMHO. Wink

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Quote from: asrinur on August 13, 2021, 10:13:43 AM

We dare not make realistic predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the next 20 years. The price of Bitcoin depends on too many factors. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high, and the Bitcoin price is currently at $41k. Usually, it is a better idea to buy cryptocurrencies when they are in a downturn. However, we all remember how it was too late to buy BTC when it was $20, $100, $1000, $20,000, etc. If the estimates come true, the price may run into millions of dollars. Bitcoin's potential is definitely strong.

What OP did isn't wrong, it's an estimate plus it's just a prediction and it's alright for a prediction to go wrong. Of course, it's good buy crypto when it's on a downturn but if you think about it, any time can be the right time especially if you're aiming for the long-term.

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We dare not make realistic predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the next 20 years. The price of Bitcoin depends on too many factors. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high, and the Bitcoin price is currently at $41k. Usually, it is a better idea to buy cryptocurrencies when they are in a downturn. However, we all remember how it was too late to buy BTC when it was $20, $100, $1000, $20,000, etc. If the estimates come true, the price may run into millions of dollars. Bitcoin's potential is definitely strong.

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Quote from: Snappycoco on August 05, 2021, 07:16:52 AM

I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.

Just have faith that it will go up in that point, I think that bitcoin is an appreciating market so we don't have to worry too much that it wouldn't grow 180% annually because it will do and the decade that it did is enough proof in my opinion.

wxa7115

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Quote from: magneto on August 04, 2021, 11:26:51 PM

And yet people want to buy into the idea of bitcoin trading. For what?

Just buy and hold, people. That mantra is true not just for bitcoin but across a range of asset classes.

Short term gains may be tempting, but it forces you into a narrow lens that is very hard to get out of. Truly believing in bitcoin as a long term store of value and asset class will allow you to get that time in the market that is much more important than timing the market.

It's really simple, the people that want to trade fall into several narrow categories, there are some that are simply too greedy for their own good, they want money and they understand that bitcoin is not going to be able to give the huge profits that it gave in the past so they are trying to compensate by becoming traders.

There are others that are just gamblers, they like to think of themselves as traders but they do not really have an idea what they're doing and as such they are chasing excitement more than anything, and there are others that cannot simply deal with the idea of earning money while doing nothing and they choose to actively trade the markets instead of just holding their coins.

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on August 05, 2021, 02:32:39 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 04, 2021, 10:19:26 PM

When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each.

Didn't know it, thanks. Well, I'm not in favor of any other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin & Monero, which made me really curious which ones were funded in the beginning. Obviously, huh, Ethereum... I knew they premined around the 70% of the total coins, but I didn't know that it was ICO-ed too. This cryptocurrency is being seen worse from me as time goes on. Tongue

No problem. Anyway, I think you are not the only person I've encountered who's only choice outside Bitcoin is Monero. But for me, I have nothing against Ethereum. They've done quite a good job, although I am aware that many will not agree with me. And it certainly wasn't a bad choice for early buyers of ETH either. They've made profit out of it and they've seen significant development and product releases. Unlike many of the proceeding crypto projects that raised funds through an ICO, especially in 2017 and 2018, Ethereum did show something.

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Quote from: Snappycoco on August 05, 2021, 07:16:52 AM

I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.

Sorry, but why 100k exactly? Why shouldn't it reach gold's market cap for example, where each coin would cost ~$400k? Why would you consider that impossible? Let's assume that it reaches 100k. Doesn't this 180% annual yield make you wonder if it'll go beyond that by far overtime?

Quote from: roosbit on August 05, 2021, 08:08:39 AM

Why limiting the price of Bitcoin to $100k when there is so much potential at which bitcoin could reach, let's reach for the stars say $500k or $1million in the next 10-20 years.

Even if it isn't 180% every year on average and it's something like 90%, it'll still reach $1M pretty sooner than in two decades.

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Here I was thinking money doesn't grow on tree's Tongue

but seeing those numbers by the Op, we all need to spare some cypto for this purpose specifically.

With a little patience I don't think we could go wrong, numbers have been run for past performance and furure forecast of what's likely to happen, numbers don't lie lie .

Quote from: Snappycoco on August 05, 2021, 07:16:52 AM

I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.

Why limiting the price of Bitcoin to $100k when there is so much potential at which bitcoin could reach, let's reach for the stars say $500k or $1million in the next 10-20 years.

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I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.

BlackHatCoiner

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 04, 2021, 10:19:26 PM

When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each.

Didn't know it, thanks. Well, I'm not in favor of any other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin & Monero, which made me really curious which ones were funded in the beginning. Obviously, huh, Ethereum... I knew they premined around the 70% of the total coins, but I didn't know that it was ICO-ed too. This cryptocurrency is being seen worse from me as time goes on. Tongue

magneto

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And yet people want to buy into the idea of bitcoin trading. For what?

Just buy and hold, people. That mantra is true not just for bitcoin but across a range of asset classes.

Short term gains may be tempting, but it forces you into a narrow lens that is very hard to get out of. Truly believing in bitcoin as a long term store of value and asset class will allow you to get that time in the market that is much more important than timing the market.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on August 04, 2021, 05:20:30 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 03, 2021, 10:37:28 PM

Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

What? What other cryptocurrencies are assigned with a fiat price right from the beginning?

You sound surprised and I am quite surprised with it. There are thousands of them but we shouldn't go far and take a look at Ethereum instead, Bitcoin's second in terms of market cap and popularity. When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each. Thousands of others are doing this as well. Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn't have an assigned fiat value when it was introduced.

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 03, 2021, 10:37:28 PM

I definitely respect your view but I think I can hardly consider the price movements of Bitcoin as a feature. It is not part of Bitcoin itself.

The fact that it's not controlled by anyone is a feature. It'd be a matter of time until entities manipulated its price due to that fact. Indirectly, price fluctuations is a Bitcoin feature, but anyway.

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 03, 2021, 10:37:28 PM

Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

What? What other cryptocurrencies are assigned with a fiat price right from the beginning?

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on August 03, 2021, 01:45:27 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 02, 2021, 10:09:42 PM

But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features.

Actually, its price movements is a feature. The fact that people are attracted of getting richer isn't caused only by their immoral behavior. It's the hierarchical structure of Bitcoin that makes them do so. I'll give the simplest example, although there are others too; if you have 1 BTC and observe this 180% annual yield it provides you, you won't want to spend it. You'll prefer to do it in the future, when your wealth will be greater than today. That's caused by deflation and it damages the economy, because money stays still.

So, that's a reason why people are attracted mainly on keeping it; to become richer.

I definitely respect your view but I think I can hardly consider the price movements of Bitcoin as a feature. It is not part of Bitcoin itself. It is external. Bitcoin actually stands on its own with its fundamental features away from the fiat price people attach to its native currency. Bitcoin earned followers even before its currency acquired price equivalent in fiat. Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

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Quote from: Kong Hey Pakboy on August 01, 2021, 11:08:36 PM

Quote from: tabas on August 01, 2021, 06:42:49 AM

Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.

I mean, if you manage to do that, I think that you will be able to enjoy maximum profit and if along the way you are also accumulating a lot of bitcoin to increase your portfolio little by little and you take care of yourself so as to not have any health problems that will cause you to prematurely sell your portfolio then you will get what you deserve. And you also have to face the temptations along the way because prices go up each year which might entice you into selling early than your target.

That's for sure and I just have to endure all of those good prices that might come also after the next halving. I'm sure that there will be good prices that will allow everyone to enjoy the profits. But that's part of the goal now, to at least make sure that I'll be able to surpass 2 or more halvings and for sure we'll see the price of bitcoin massively by those times. I don't see the connection between having health problems and selling. Maybe if you're going to need serious medical treatment and it requires you to sell, maybe that's it.

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 02, 2021, 10:09:42 PM

But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features.

Actually, its price movements is a feature. The fact that people are attracted of getting richer isn't caused only by their immoral behavior. It's the hierarchical structure of Bitcoin that makes them do so. I'll give the simplest example, although there are others too; if you have 1 BTC and observe this 180% annual yield it provides you, you won't want to spend it. You'll prefer to do it in the future, when your wealth will be greater than today. That's caused by deflation and it damages the economy, because money stays still.

So, that's a reason why people are attracted mainly on keeping it; to become richer.

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on August 02, 2021, 02:50:52 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on August 01, 2021, 11:53:14 PM

Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.

The most significant is that they have financial sovereignty. All those you said are extras.

Yes, of course. I agree. That's more important. Bitcoin is for financial independence. But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features. Instead of financial sovereignty, people are now leaving their funds in exchange wallets and other places outside their control resulting to a lot of headaches. Some are losing money because of how they handle the changes in Bitcoin's price. We could say people are now stuck on what you call extras or the trivial aspects of Bitcoin.

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The dollar is worth less in 2021 then 2000 and 1990, part of the gains we see are losses from inflation and its slightly deceptive from that. The low cost of money and debt is beneficial to some companies, certainly it seems to benefit internet companies and perhaps also the Bitcoin ecosystem benefits from weak dollar. In 1990 $1000 into CSCO shares would have been a million dollars nominally by the end of the decade, 18k in MSFT would have done similarly. I wasn't aware of Cisco back then but I tried the first few Windows versions and realized the product would do well in the mainstream, I had no idea the shares would grow quite that much and a large part of the story is the FED policy and fiscal expansion during the 90's
I do expect deflation to occur eventually, inflation does not equate to growth its an efficiency loss that makes people poorer overall which will show up eventually. Due to the amount of dollar debt, I expect BTC to be a safer place which will be surprising to many and its impossible to predict how that looks on a chart. 100k by year end isn't necessary, even next year I'd be fine if it stayed flat from here for 2 years or only regained the highs all that is a very positive outcome in a volatile world imo.

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