Nice work to give a clear data on the percentage of profiting. For people who have made 100x returns from traditional investments won't prioritise it. For a 100x return they might've waited a long. The risk with those investment seems to be low. Now people are more positive about bitcoin. Earlier even a small crash makes steep deviation in the price, because of the panic selling. Now everyone knew, if it drops later it'll recover.
As in the previous quote, the marketcap increases along with the increase in the price. This takes place as a result of market getting maturity.
Topic: Buy Bitcoin and hold it: 180% annual yield on average since the first halving - page 2. (Read 463 times)
August 02, 2021, 07:35:07 PM
August 02, 2021, 09:52:10 AM
I am not in favor of calculating the future returns in %. Back in the 90s, it was not unusual to have IT stocks to give 100x or 200x returns (during the dot com boom). But you can't expect the same stocks (such as AMZN, EBAY, DELL, MSFT and AMD) to give similar returns in % terms in the next 10 years. But if you look at the market cap, then you will find that the increase in market cap these stocks had recently (in absolute numbers) is higher than what they gave during the dot com boom. I will give one example, of that of AMZN.
During the dot com boom, AMZN went up by 5,000% and the market cap increased from $760 million to $54 billion. The increase in market cap is $53 billion.
Now take the returns from AMZN since 2020 January. In % terms, the increase was 78%. But the absolute increase in market cap was an astounding $740 billion.
The same will happen with Bitcoin, as the market matures. I don't really expect 50x or 100x spikes now. But it possible that the market cap may increase by trillions of USD in the near future.
During the dot com boom, AMZN went up by 5,000% and the market cap increased from $760 million to $54 billion. The increase in market cap is $53 billion.
Now take the returns from AMZN since 2020 January. In % terms, the increase was 78%. But the absolute increase in market cap was an astounding $740 billion.
The same will happen with Bitcoin, as the market matures. I don't really expect 50x or 100x spikes now. But it possible that the market cap may increase by trillions of USD in the near future.
August 02, 2021, 09:17:29 AM
Good data and good analyze, but i think we are at $18k in 2018 right ?
Although I am unsure of how he selected those values, I believe it refers to the date when the post was published. So the price of $8,100 for one bitcoin was on July 30, 2018.
By the way, if we cherry-pick some other specific dates we might be able to see even higher yields.
August 02, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
I made this thread just to remind you that, in the last eight years, Bitcoin gave you the chance to increase your annual yield by 180%. Specifically, here's some satisfying results of the end of July overtime:
From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)
If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:
From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23
Have a nice day.
From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)
If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:
From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23
Have a nice day.
Good data and good analyze, but i think we are at $18k in 2018 right ? And i am still believing that in this cycle we will reach above $100k at the end of 2021. The reason for my prediction is also the covid 19 is still around especialy at emerging country and we possibly will see another outbrake then goverment will create more fiat money which leads btc goes up again Versus anothet fiat currencies.
August 02, 2021, 02:50:52 AM
Did you mean -51%?
Yep, my bad.Yes, but the question is when? From the next halving? The one after that?
When the whole world adopts it. If you believe this will never happen, so won't the stability. If it ever happens, I predict around one halving after the CBDCs' introduction.Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.
The most significant is that they have financial sovereignty. All those you said are extras. August 01, 2021, 11:53:14 PM
This is taking a step backward to see the bigger picture. And it presents us something beautiful. Oftentimes, many people are focused on checking out the price every minute of the day to the point that they are being deeply affected by its instability and sometimes even do untimely buying and selling. Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.
August 01, 2021, 11:08:36 PM
Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.
I mean, if you manage to do that, I think that you will be able to enjoy maximum profit and if along the way you are also accumulating a lot of bitcoin to increase your portfolio little by little and you take care of yourself so as to not have any health problems that will cause you to prematurely sell your portfolio then you will get what you deserve. And you also have to face the temptations along the way because prices go up each year which might entice you into selling early than your target. The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.
August 01, 2021, 09:08:25 PM
When I said cold storage I meant you are protected against some hacker stealing your USDT. Basically if you got it on Omni you can use Armory for cold storage and if you got it on ETH you can use MEW or hardware wallet. So your USDT can’t get stolen by some malware.
The fact that it’s centralized I assumed it was obvious. However it’s better keeping it in cold storage rather than on some exchange somewhere. And does tether Blacklist any coins? The only ones I can think off are those $30M that was stolen a few years hack. Since then haven’t heard any end users getting their tether confiscated.
The fact that it’s centralized I assumed it was obvious. However it’s better keeping it in cold storage rather than on some exchange somewhere. And does tether Blacklist any coins? The only ones I can think off are those $30M that was stolen a few years hack. Since then haven’t heard any end users getting their tether confiscated.
August 01, 2021, 07:30:55 PM
That is a fallacy. It's like if you say I can't have $1M net worth because my annual income is $50K.
The GDP is the annual income, the wealth accumulated is another thing.
Total global wealth is $431 trillion.
It is, of course, possible that Bitcoin, which is currently succeeding as a store of value, will absorb much of that figure. That is the thesis of Saylor and others.
The GDP is the annual income, the wealth accumulated is another thing.
Total global wealth is $431 trillion.
It is, of course, possible that Bitcoin, which is currently succeeding as a store of value, will absorb much of that figure. That is the thesis of Saylor and others.
Okay, fair, let's use global wealth. Let's say it will reach 700 trillion, so Bitcoin representing 11% of it is still insanely high. Gold is one of the most popular stores of value, and it has a market capitalization if 11.54 trillion. How can Bitcoin reach a 7 times higher price than that if it's not even universally better than gold, as it relies on electricity and Internet that can theoretically be disrupted. And it still has regulatory risks looming above it.
August 01, 2021, 02:18:15 PM
I made this thread just to remind you that, in the last eight years, Bitcoin gave you the chance to increase your annual yield by 180%. Specifically, here's some satisfying results of the end of July overtime:
From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)
If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:
From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23
Have a nice day.
I don't really think that there is any doubt that there are huge benefits for holding your bitcoin for as long as you can however one of the problems with projections like this one is that it is getting harder and harder for bitcoin to grow simply because the market cap of bitcoin is growing each time the price goes up.From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)
If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:
From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23
Have a nice day.
So I think those numbers will need to be adjusted a little bit as I do not think that bitcoin is going to be able to keep up the growth that it had during their previous eight years during the next eight years, despite all of this it is a great exercise to show the newbies how incredibly profitable holding bitcoin has been and how incredibly profitable it will still be.
August 01, 2021, 01:19:35 PM
Quote
IMO it's time to say goodbye to expected 180% returns and settle for more realistic 50% returns or 25% returns, which is still very good.
I agree though, exponential growth will at some point have to flatten towards an S curve.Yes, but the question is when? From the next halving? The one after that?
I think 150%-200% is still very possible. That's just over $100k compared to the current price.
August 01, 2021, 11:25:27 AM
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
Did you mean -51%?But you forgot to add the conclusion "Show me another retail investment vehicle that has had better performance gains over the last 8 years." 
Netflix comes closest with a 3,767% increase in 10 years. But it still can't keep up with Bitcoin.Bitcoin @ 4.4 million would have a marketcap around ~77 trillion. The global GDP estimated today is 93.8 trillion US dollars. Do you seriously believe that a currency barely used for any consumer transactions and being used as an asset by a small number of tech companies has a chance to absorb most of world's GDP in 8 years?
If you compare to GDP, many other markets are ridiculously large too. Forex trading for instance does $6.6 trillion per day, and is worth $2,409 trillion (17 times larger than global GDP). So compared to Forex trading, Bitcoin is now at only 0.03% and can easily grow a whole lot bigger!Quote
IMO it's time to say goodbye to expected 180% returns and settle for more realistic 50% returns or 25% returns, which is still very good.
I agree though, exponential growth will at some point have to flatten towards an S curve. August 01, 2021, 09:54:41 AM
If the dollar inflates, so does the Tether, because 1 USDT should always be equal with 1 USD. So, I'd say it's tripling the amount of counterparty risks.
That's also true, and even if you ignore the fact that Tether only hold about ~5% of the total USDT in cash (yes, 5%, you read that right: https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/tether-march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown.pdf), then holding USDT is even worse than holding fiat in terms of security and gradually but steadily losing money.I've never googled it, but how is the verification of the transactions done? Are there blocks? Are we talking about a cryptocurrency that works on a block chain and uses cryptography to operate?
It's a token. It was initially launched on Bitcoin's Omni layer, and then spread to an Ethereum ERC20 token as well as a token on a number of other altcoin platforms. Because it is run from a smart contract, Tether have the ability to blacklist coins, freeze transactions, and issue new coins, all from any address, at any time. It matters not if you've moved your USDT on to an Ethereum address generated from an airgapped machine. Do something Tether don't like, and your coins are worthless. Not to mention at any point they could just give themselves a few billion tokens and dump them on the market. (Although if you look at the exponential rise in their marketcap - from $20 billion to $60 billion in the last 6 months - some might argue they are already doing exactly that.) August 01, 2021, 09:11:18 AM
There are double the amount of counterparty risks. Obviously there is all the risk from depositing your coins with a third party lending platform, and there is also all the risk from holding a centralized coin which is owned, operated, and controlled by a single entity and is not backed up 1-to-1 with USD as has been claimed. You are at double the risk of default, double the risk of bank runs, and double the risk of losing everything. All for what? 0.5% a year? No thanks.
You also have to trust the fiat currency these guys in Bitfinex are trying to balance with your “stable” coin. If the dollar inflates, so does the Tether, because 1 USDT should always be equal with 1 USD. So, I'd say it's tripling the amount of counterparty risks. You can still move USDT to a hardware wallet
I've never googled it, but how is the verification of the transactions done? Are there blocks? Are we talking about a cryptocurrency that works on a block chain and uses cryptography to operate? If it's centralized, there's no point to require any mechanism for the verification; there's not even a point on using cryptography besides the coin control part. I guess that ECDSA would still be needed to prove you own USDT. 
August 01, 2021, 06:42:49 AM
Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.
August 01, 2021, 06:30:33 AM
However keep in mind there is still counterparty risks, You can't lend it while its in cold storage.
There are double the amount of counterparty risks. Obviously there is all the risk from depositing your coins with a third party lending platform, and there is also all the risk from holding a centralized coin which is owned, operated, and controlled by a single entity and is not backed up 1-to-1 with USD as has been claimed. You are at double the risk of default, double the risk of bank runs, and double the risk of losing everything. All for what? 0.5% a year? No thanks.Since when USDT can be kept in a cold storage?
You can still move USDT to a hardware wallet, for example, but as you rightly point out, it remains entirely centralized meaning Tether can choose to freeze your coins and addresses and render your USDT worthless, even if it is in cold storage.With the current price of Bitcoin and volume, is there any chance that we could experience what happened from 2014 to 2015?
A 50% drop from current prices is only back to $20k. That is absolutely within the realms of possibility. We may well never see that price again, but what a great time to buy the dip if we do. 
August 01, 2021, 06:04:48 AM
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
Let's try to look on the other way around,With the current price of Bitcoin and volume, is there any chance that we could experience what happened from 2014 to 2015?
Like if you can see, 48% down from that year. If this is the case, short-term investors or believe will only get affected, and if you are for the long term, it will be worth it, the first post is the evedence.
August 01, 2021, 05:53:56 AM
Bitcoin @ 4.4 million would have a marketcap around ~77 trillion. The global GDP estimated today is 93.8 trillion US dollars. Do you seriously believe that a currency barely used for any consumer transactions and being used as an asset by a small number of tech companies has a chance to absorb most of world's GDP in 8 years?
That is a fallacy. It's like if you say I can't have $1M net worth because my annual income is $50K.
The GDP is the annual income, the wealth accumulated is another thing.
Total global wealth is $431 trillion.
It is, of course, possible that Bitcoin, which is currently succeeding as a store of value, will absorb much of that figure. That is the thesis of Saylor and others.
IMO it's time to say goodbye to expected 180% returns and settle for more realistic 50% returns or 25% returns, which is still very good.
On this I do agree, it would be normal for growth to slow down.
August 01, 2021, 05:18:03 AM
This is the main reason why I personally don't see the need of using bitcoin lending platforms. Sure, an extra 5-8% yield off your bitcoin(on top of the bitcoin value increase) can be quite sweet, but in exchange for handing over custody? Hell nah, I'm happy with my annual 2x-3x multipliers.
But there's nothing wrong with doing the lending platforms, I mean I make a lot of my portfolio through those although I agree that surrendering full custody of your coins is a bad thing so I only use about 25% of my bitcoin there and the other sit for a long while throughout all the seasons. August 01, 2021, 02:33:58 AM
Bitcoin @ 4.4 million would have a marketcap around ~77 trillion. The global GDP estimated today is 93.8 trillion US dollars.
The key word here is “today”. In disruptive innovation, digital transformation is the most potential opportunity. In 2028-2029 that I have predicted $2.4M - $4.8M, you can't be sure about the GDP. Whats popular is to lend USD and USDT however. Those historically (except bear markets) usually will yield you around 10% a year. So if you sold some crypto that you don't need. You can just lend it out for 10% instead of leaving it in your bank account to get 0.5% APY. However keep in mind there is still counterparty risks, You can't lend it while its in cold storage.
Since when USDT can be kept in a cold storage? It is completely centralized and the mint is Tether Limited AKA Bitfinex. How do you think they manage to balance it with the USD's value? Jump to: