Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 116. (Read 130190 times)

In my opinion, those who consider the price of Bitcoin before investing are those who do not have enough money or are afraid of losing the money they are going to invest. No one would be happy if they lost their money investing, but they already understand the risk involved in Bitcoin trading, which is why they aren't afraid when the price is down, what I would like some people to understand about Bitcoin is that it's worth is different from other kinds of investments that people have lost their money. However, I haven't heard of someone who's a professional in Bitcoin investment complaining that they lost their money, except they weren't advised by the right person before starting the investment.

When someone has the money and knows the risk involved in Bitcoin investment, they are free to buy as much as they can regardless of the price, even though the Bitcoin price is unpredictable, and nobody has any idea how high it will be in years to come, everyone who invests believes that the Bitcoin price will rise more than we can think.

You sure you really went through what you typed because I don't see DCA controlling buying price, it's just a strategy of buying Bitcoin  on regular intervals the price entry doesn't really matter when you buy using the strategy(DCA) .
However, buying of DIPs can just be more like a boost to your investment which shouldn't stop your DCA in the first place, if  you are capable of it then go for it when there's a Dip and the current market is an example of a Dip, DCAs at the moment is just like buying DIPs so if you have extra funds you can buy more DIPs or just stick to only  DCA...

Scalping as I know is one of the most risky trading strategies to use in trading because it encourages multiple positions at a time and you can lose so much funds within just second. In fact, in terms of guaranteed profit making, trading entirely can't be compared to investment hodling towards a long term target or plan.

You don't lose under bitcoin hodling as you would do in the trading aspect. The only conditions to losing in long term hodling investment is when the investor become anxious and impatient to hodl and sell off his asset prematurely probably out of FUD. 

I am believing that you are HODLing because deep down you know it's the safest way to accumulate and grow your bitcoin portfolio otherwise you would have divested the whole of your asset into trading if it was that much better than hodling for long.

There is a different between Lump sum, buying at dip and also DCA method, and in lump sum it doesn't targets the dip to invest all at ones on the contrary it can be use at any given price of the Market so if it happens that your plan of lump sum falls during when the Bitcoin price is on dip that will be an advantage for you, in other words any price is good so long as you are lump suming, meanwhile I see lump sum to be somehow related to the DCA method in the aspect of buying at any price but the difference is the nature of there investment, however your understanding about lump sum seem to be channeling on the buying at dip since you are pointing out that they should reserve some of the funds from the lump sum to be use during the dip.

I really feel there should be a base amount when DCAing, sort of an amount you should not go below, so as to put yourself in check and foster continued discipline and commitment in your investment. This comes from the knowledge that the human mind is cunny and can overly adapt to a pattern and possibly exploit it to the disadvantage of the individual, so for example, If you set a base, lets say $50 and you know that you can afford it weekly as a minimum, at some times when you have more cash with you you can invest $70, $100 or even more provided you have made accurate plans for  the next week's minimum of $50 to fall in place. you are better off than someone who invests $200 this week and possibly $20 next week, $30 in two weeks time as he can even decide not to invest in a week citing and deceiving himself that he has invested much previously.

This will help you become more disciplined and consistent investor over a long period of time as against investing randomly without an investment guideline for yourself and the guidelines would help you succeed in your investment journey with ease as it tends to be part of you overtime and as a committed investor, the more your earnings increase, the more you raise the bar on your minimum investment and the more bitcoin you would accumulate over a long period of time.

You are right. What I feel is the main issue of waiting for the dip is the aspect of misleading opportunities and psychological stress. No prediction is accurate as you mentioned. The more effective strategy for many investors has been DCA because they do not have to go through the idea of focusing and waiting for a specific decline in the price of Bitcoin. Having a long-term perspective will remove our mindset from short-term price fluctuation and this is something that most investors fall victim to.

One of the golden rules of investment is 'understand your financial strength'. It's not about rushing to buy the dip whereby we tend to touch money that was meant for other purposes without considering the risk involved. People often get excited and carried away when they see the dip and then invest their emergency funds and monthly expenses funds into the market. Instead of doing this, its better we remove this expenses an invest whats left into the dip because if life event happens and there is no fund to use we may end up tapping into our investment.

Definitely, overly lump summing without proper financial planning has lots of consequences on the investor both emotionally and financially like being left with little funds to attend to basic needs and emergencies because when the lump summing is overly done, then it is evident that a lot of emergency funds must have gone into the investment and these might be emotionally stressful, especially when the markets move sharply below the purchase price creating a state of restlessness for the investor since he did not invest only with discretionary income and most times the investor might not be able to contain the pressure leading to panic selling and immediate loss in investments.

Other times the shock from overinvesting in bitcoin at a point can shorten the longevity of your investment journey as an investor since recovery time would be taken off to gain your balance and there is no guarantee the investor would return to regular investment pattern anytime soon. Also, the less informed investor may be gathering funds to lumpsum again and miss out purchasing at periodic good prices that DCA presents and possibly may not even be able to gather the mighty funds as expected, therefore ending his investment journey as soon as he started.

Investing as much as you can contain and following up with DCA helps you cultivate a disciplined approach to investing and be able to buy periodically and accumulate good stashes of bitcoin in no distant time as long as you have started, you are consistent with it and have set an investment target, you would achieve it with time while your periodic investments places less financial, emotional  and physical burden on you.

The fact that Dip always create opportunity for investor to accumulate more Bitcoin doesn't mean one should invest more than they are suppose to invest. Some people who  panic and tamper their investment sometimes is as a result of what I mentioned above however, my advise is anyone who wants to take advantage of the Dip should check his/her pucket  very well in other words, plan before doing anything so that you don't come here and say things that will mislead or discourage people because of what you get yourself into after all Dip is what is band to happen in Bitcoin one can invest anytime just that the more Bitcoin increase the higher the Dip that is to say that any new ATH has it Dip limit  though it volatility can be very funny at times.

I think investors who are accumulating bitcoin for long-term profit should not try and figure out the best time to accumulate bitcoin because it will delay their bitcoin accumulation journey, and that's indirectly timing the bitcoin market. Their major concern should be how to be consistent in accumulating bitcoin, increasing the size of their bitcoin holdings, and being able to solve their daily needs.
The actual time to accumulate bitcoin is when your bitcoin accumulation money is ready and you use it right away to invest in bitcoin without having any point of entry on your mind.
What if you feel like investing in bitcoin twice per year? Your approach to accumulating bitcoin will make you less consistent, and you can't accumulate a reasonable amount of bitcoin. It will be better if you adopt the DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin either weekly or monthly to help you be consistent and serious about accumulating bitcoin.
I disagree with you; bitcoin investment is a long-term investment, and if you fail to plan, I doubt you will sell your bitcoin during your accumulation process. No matter how shitty your source of income is, always make provisions for emergency funds, reserve funds, and floats if you want to succeed with bitcoin investment.

I so much appreciate this because, often times lots of folks make this mistake of over lump summing bitcoin at the top and when there is a sudden bearish market which last longer than expected, they tends to be scared to follow up with investing further to take advantage of the dip. What I have learned from this is that when an investor wants to lump sum bitcoin at the top, he shouldn't go all in at once. He should invest with caution and divide the money and use part of it to lump sum and keep the rest as a reserve which he will use as a follow up should there be a dip that tends to last longer than expected, especially those dip that last for years. Another thing I have learnt from this is that, it's not enough to lump sum once and neglect to keep investing further when the dip happens, while you are waiting for the bullish market to return.

Basically the investor's expectation of buying dips is unlimited and they will continue to look for it until it is zero so in my opinion an investor should continue to deposit the DCA method regardless of the market price. Yes, if we see a bearish while we keep this trend going, the lump sum investment could be truly unprecedented considering the situation which could increase the Bitcoin stash and accumulate more holdings than expected before completing a cycle. While both affordability and opportunities for buying lump sums can be uncertain for investors, if one can arrange their portfolio according to both processes, they will surely be several steps ahead in investing.

As you say there is no exact formula but I think both DCA and lump sum investment are sure solutions. As a bitcoin investor I prefer to accumulate regularly in any price situation as I know that buying extra during dips can increase my holdings yet try to refrain from being aggressive as I always try to keep my real assets much higher than invested. And following this method is basically taken from this thread. Although every dips motivates me to buy aggressively but I try to buy a bit more than the normal accumulation in those situations so that I can continue holding long term later. As possible.

Thank you JayJuanGee for the correction and always standing as a mentor for us all, actually I never knew that I was misunderstanding the Lump strategy to another so I'm happy that you have corrected me because I have now understand the differences, I wish most people will see this so that they would also understand more better because I realized that most of the investors also have the mindset that lump sum is a strategy for dip and they always wait for the price to drop before buying without knowing that they are getting it wrong, so actually this your clarification has really helped a lot because it has restructured my mindset about it and also make me to understand it more better now.

Now essentially buying the 20% low dip is impossible because we are currently in the pre-bull market period. If the DCA approach is the best current time to invest in Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin market is dumping for the current period. In general I think it would be possible to buy bitcoin dips with the accumulated money, and investors would have to wait. And as soon as the Bitcoin market is dumping, the money should be supplied and prepared for buying Bitcoin Deep quickly, while the regular investment in the DCA method will continue.



Of course, this is the right approach, an investor has to figure out for himself how to invest and fund. And all kinds of help and support and how to keep the investment for a long time, you can get all such support from JJG. So currently only preparing for Bitcoin DCA method and deep buying, but the longer you hold Bitcoin the more profitable it is possible to get from your rules.

Sometimes folks wait for a certain size dip, such as 20%, yet it might not do you a lot of good if you had been waiting since $27k for a 20% dip and then finally you get your 20%  plus dip, but the dip is ONLY down to the lower $50ks..   Another problem with waiting for any dip is that you might get several dips that almost meet your threshold but not quite, or alternatively they meet your threshold and then you end up blowing your whole buying on dip amount, while the price keeps dipping.

Surely, there is no exact formula, and a person surely has to figure out how early he might be in his bitcoin journey and maybe consider that his main emphasis might be buying regularly no matter what, even if he might have a side hobby of buying dips, and surely if someone might have been accumulating for a whole cycle or two, then he might be more discriminating in regards to how much dip he wants to get, and not be necessarily prejudiced if he misses his dip buying targets.

Even though you're opportune to experience different corrections along your investment journey, buying using the DCA method allows you to experience all the different market conditions that come with it. Doing a 4 to 10-year accumulation will certainly expose you to buying at a very low price, a medium price and there are other times when you will have to buy at a much higher price. In the end, after HODling for a long period, the range of prices you consider as DIP prices will have a very slight effect on the overall profitability of your investment because usually for an average investor, the DCA amount is always a bit small such that 5% to 20% dip doesn't make much difference since you're buying with a small DCA amount.

From an infinitesimal point of view, the percentage of DIP matters a lot in building a stronger portfolio but overemphasizing and relying on getting a better percentage of DIP would make you look as though you're timing the market before effecting your buy. It's just best to get this kind of mentality that makes you ignore prices and pay less attention to the extent of DIPs because you aren't ready to sell anytime soon but ready to HODL for the long term.

You are right in your explanation by saying we should buy whenever it's dip, but the only impression I want to correct is the aspect you said "dip opportunity only comes  once" dip doesn't come once, it comes as many time as possible but surely it depends on the level of dip you mean, if it's a dip in price of about %20 - %30 them certainly it is rear. But if it's %5 to %10 it is common,  because certainly someone might consider his dip as %5 -%10 which is often then another may chose his dip as %20 bellow. What really matters is having enough fund in your discretion to be able to buy at a slight opportunity because it is emotionally devastated when bitcoin experience a massive dump and there is no enough discretion fund to be able to take advantage of such sudden dip.

Especially by following the DCA method any investor can maintain his holding for a long period of time. Because it basically controls the buying price and helps in deep buying. Because you can invest in bitcoins in two ways one is when you buy in the deep market, and secondly you invest by following the regular DCA method. 

Because both new and old investors can achieve success by adopting this strategy. Because this is the only method where all investors have been successful using this method since the beginning of Bitcoin, the longer the DCA method investment, the more Bitcoin you can accumulate.

The DCA strategy is the best method to use in order to buy at a more lower price but that doesn’t mean that method will give you the lowest price you can buy bitcoin during accumulation. Dip always come when no one expects them, and those dips are more favourable to buy more bitcoin from because it will narrow down your average buy more and your portfolio will immediately increase more in value than it was before. Even when you’ve lump sum and began DCA after that, when a dip comes, don’t hesitate to stack more bitcoin because the opportunity comes only once unlike the DCA that’s readily applicable all the time.

I think that you have the idea correctly, yet sometimes we need to get into some of the specifics in order to rebutt the assertion that is being made... and so in that sense, maybe an example would be helpful in order to flesh out how some kinds of buying at the top might play out in terms of comparing someone who went in BIG and then just sat on his hands for several years, versus some other more practical possibilities of other scenarios of someone who might have been a bit more proactive in terms of not just sitting on his hands, but ongoingly buying BTC..

Let's say that in early 2021, the investor is in his mid 30s and he had already been investing in traditional assets for close to 10 years, so he had an income of around $36k that has been he had been slowly going up in his income and his then total investment portfolio was close to $100k, and so part of the reason that his investment had done so well is that he had been fairly aggressively investing around $120 to $250 per week for the past 10 years, which is a fairly large portion of his income $6k to $13k per year.  So when he finds out about bitcoin in late 2020, he starts to consider that there might be some way that he could lump sum into bitcoin with around $30k of his investment portfolio without any major penalties.... So from the circumstances of this guy, we could come up with several different scenarios, and they all involve him getting started around March 2021 and figuring out how to use his lump sum versus

Scenario 1:  Ends up with 0.5 BTC and an average cost of $60k per BTC, since guy lump sum buys around 0.5 BTC at $60k with his $30k and then just sits on the BTC investment and continues to invest around $200 per week into his traditional portfolio, which is about $36.2k over 3.5 years.  Total current value: $189.3k (0.5 BTC * $60k = $30k)   + ($106.2k *150%= $159.3l)

Scenario 2:  Ends up with 1.58 BTC and an average cost of $42k per BTC ($66.2k invested), since guy lump sum buys around 0.5 BTC at $60k with his $30k and invested around $200 per week into bitcoin, which is about $36.2k to purchase an additional 1.08 BTC over 3.5 years.  Total current value: $199.8k (1.58 BTC * $60k = $94.8k)   + ($70k *150%= $105k)

Scenario 3:  Ends up with 1.925 BTC  (0.167 + 0.6782 + 1.08) and an average cost of $34.4k per BTC ($66.2k invested), since guy divides his lump sum amount into 3 portions of $10k each to lump sum buys around 0.167 BTC at $60k with his $10k and then decides to spread his DCA & buying on dip portion which was allocated as $20k and to put all of that into DCA over 2 years which resulted in around 0.6782 BTC  - including that he decided to continue with his regular investment amount of $200 per week into bitcoin, which is about $36.2k to purchase an additional 1.08 BTC over 3.5 years.  Total current value: $220.5k (1.925 BTC * $60k = $115.5k)   + ($70k *150%= $105k)

Of course, there can be other variations of the scenarios in which a guy might either sit on his initial investment into BTC or if he might continue to invest into BTC or he might continue to allocate more of his investment into his traditional investments rather than BTC, and with a longer passage of time, the scenarios likely differentiate from themselves more and more.. at least historically, the scenarios that ongoingly continue to buy into bitcoin had tended to perform better than scenarios that either did not invest into bitcoin or took more whimpy approaches to bitcoin.. and yeah, we know that historical results do not guarantee future results, so we have to decide our bitcoin allocations and our level of aggressiveness in accordance with our own finances and psychology.


If you found a bitcoin accumulation strategy that works better for you, then there is nothing wrong with that, yet I doubt there is any way to systematize it in any kind of straight-forward way, and you are not even really that clear.  Are you more profitable because you are accumulating more bitcoin or are you more profitable because your are accumulating more dollars (or is it both?).  

Are you wanting to provide a link to your system?  Is it free to participate and find out about it or do we need to pay?  And, why wouldn't such a thing fall into another thread, even if everything that you are saying is true. ..and then just .link us to such other thread, rather than convoluting our current topic with what seems to be trading techniques to acquire more bitcoin (and/or dollars?).

By the way, I doubt that any of us are really proclaiming anything about just employing a bitcoin HODL strategy in this thread, even though HODL is in the name of the thread.

I think that largely we are attempting to address the various ways to build a bitcoin stash through various ways of buying bitcoin such as DCA, buying on dip and lump sum, even though also HODL might come into play at various times when running out of money or perhaps other circumstances, and many of us (including yours truly) consider that selling BTC is not a very good practice for those who have goals to accumulate more BTC, and so you are wanting to proclaim that we could include selling as a tactic into our accumulation strategies in order to accumulate more BTC than we might be able to accumulate through the employment of the various buying strategies alone.

I am having some troubles understanding how you are topical, even if you might be correct that your selling BTC to accumulate more BTC strategy works, which is also known as trading and some of us consider such strategies to fit into gambling, too.. and I doubt that many of us even doubt that gambling strategies might not be profitable, though there may well be questions about any ability to replicate such strategies rather than following more straight forward BTC accumulation/investing strategies that at least guarantee more accumulation of BTC, even though surely BTC is not guaranteed to go up in price, but there is a certain calculation that the odds are good that bitcoin retains strong enough fundamentals to continue to appreciate in value with the passage of time.  Even if we are investors in bitcoin, we are not necessarily locked into our bitcoin investment, and some of us might even have various scenarios that we might consider to weaken or invalidate bitcoin's investment thesis which would cause us to sell large amounts or even all of our bitcoin holdings.


The example that I gave might even have some room for the lump sum buyer to include some cushion in his decision to lump sum into bitcoin, and there likely is nothing even wrong with lump summing into bitcoin, but then at some point realizing that the BTC price is moving against him, so when he put in the lump sum, he may well realize that there is a possibility that the BTC price could be at a high point rather than having more immediate upside potential, but he still might know all of that and still decide to get in with the idea that he will just buy more if the BTC price goes down rather than up.. so in that sense, he either should be holding back a little bit of his lump sum amount or he already knows that he has an ability to continue to buy BTC in the future, in case the BTC price goes down instead of up.. so he has already built in a plan that the BTC price might go down rather than going up... but his lump sum prepares him for UP, and his continued ability to DCA and/or to buy on dips prepares him for down.. so he is actually prepared for both directions by lump summing in, even if he could have had gotten his lump sum purchase at a lower price (but no one knows the future BTC price, and that is part of the justification for his lump summing in at whatever price he had chosen to lump sum in... No one lump sums into any investment including BTC with a large expectation that it will be going down, even though they may well already account for that possibility).


If all of a sudden, today, you were to receive a delivery of $12k in cash, you might reconsider your view about which one of the BTC buying options that you would prefer to employ, since your situation had changed and all of a sudden you had an extra $12k in cash that you did not have yesterday.

So part of the justification for lump sum is having the option to do it and then figuring out from there whether to do it and perhaps how to allocate the various options, and the best practice would be to consider all three options in regards to how to treat your extra $12k in cash.. You reassess whether you have enough emergency funds, you might even think about some consumption matters (or maybe even some other possible investments), and if you end up authorizing yourself to use all of it for BTC, you should consider all three of the categories for the amount that you are planning to put into BTC and there is no right decision about how to do it, since you presumptively already have a DCA system in place, so you can add to your DCA and/or you can decide to allocate some for buying on dips and/or some for lump sum buying right away..

Sometimes, historically, I have suggested that the default allocation would be 1/3 to each category (which would be $4k in this case), yet of course, many times our own particular circumstances would contribute towards our tweaking of the allocations of each of the categories, even though we surely should consider each prior to just blindly assuming what we would do.. and if the amount received happened to be $3k rather than $12k or $120k rather than $12k, I would imagine that each of the scenarios would cause us to consider how we are going to allocate differently.. because details and amounts materially affect us.. especially when they might become really in front of us, rather than theoretical...

And, by the way, these kinds of situations really do sometimes happen to people,** and surely any of us who already have bitcoin buying systems (and thoughts about it) in place are going to be in a much better position to deal with it and to make sure that we use the money in a bitcoin-focused way, as compared with folks who are not thinking about bitcoin and do not have bitcoin systems already in place, even if they might concede that investing into bitcoin is a good idea, if they do not have systems in place in which they are already acting upon such beliefs, then they are likely not going to put such systems in place, even if they unexpectedly came across a surprisingly large sum of money.

** I had such situations happen to me in fairly BIG ways on a several occasions in the past nearly 11 years since I got into bitcoin, and when such cash flush circumstances happen, it feels really good to already have bitcoin buying systems in place.  I am sure that almost anyone has circumstances in which s/he is suddenly flush with cash, and it is my belief that the more and more that we spend time creating strong cash management systems and even strong investment systems (even if we might be purposefully choosing to invest fairly whimpily - conservatively) - we still can end up coming across situations in which all of a sudden we have more cash than we expected to have, and we immediately know where to plug in such cash.  Some folks might come to bitcoin and/or investing with very screwed up finances, so maybe they are never really perceiving ways to get ahead or to catch a break, but sometimes even folks who live really tight budgets with little to no discretionary income might find that after several years of building their finances, they start to come across great opportunities more and more frequently.



So frequently people proclaim that Saylor tries to buy bitcoin on the dip, which truly is not even any kind of actual fact that even matches up with Saylor's actions or his words.

Saylor tends to buy bitcoin whenever he gets money or he is able to get money, which truly is a very DCA kind of a practice, even if he is dealing with very large amounts and even though the amounts are frequently quite inconsistent in terms of whether he is buying based on some kind of an extra cashflow f the company or whether he raises money through some kind of a financial instrument that regular people are not able to enter into many of the Saylor kinds of financial instruments or even to leverage debt anywhere close to the levels that he and MSTR is able to accomplish.

In other words, Saylor/MSTR is buying BTC no matter the cost, whether it dips or not, and surely he was not buying during some of the dips because he actuall was not able to raise money or otherwise have extra money for bitcoin during the largest of the 2022-ish  price dips.. but yeah, folks gloss over the actual facts and try to proclaim Saylor is buying dips, when for the most part, he is not... he just buys whenever he gets cash, which is quintessential DCAing, even if the amounts happen to be way the fuck larger than most mortals are able to imagine within their own budgets.


For sure, ginsan is wrong when he suggest that DCA is best for finding the lowest price... and that is buying on dip.

DCA is best for buying bitcoin regularly and working with in your budget.

You are wrong Salahmu, when you say that lump sum strategy is best for buying on dip... since lump sum strategy in its pure form does not necessarily have anything to do with buying on dips.  Buying on dips is buying on dips, and lump sum is buying when you get some extra money or you have just allocated that money to buying bitcoin right away at any price.

Yes, the categories sometimes overlap.. so there could be cases that they combine, but to suggest that DCA or even lump sum has to be done for dips, that is mixing up categories, since even though you could attempt to strategize buying on dips, you could have a whole separate buying on dip strategy, and sometimes when people proclaim that they are employing their DCA and their lump sum only during dips, then those kinds of strategies begin to fall more into the category of buying on dips rather than either DCA or lump sum, even though there surely can be overlap and part of the problem might come when one strategy is described as having to have a buying the dip component or even to error on the other side and to suggest that merely because you have a DCA or a lump sum strategy that you are purposefully going to avoid thinking about the dip, which also sometimes seems strange if you might have the option to execute some buys and there is a dip currently happening, and you are trying to figure out for yourself when to buy, so even your own actions might end up having to go down a path that you usually do not go down, based on actual real world happenings in the midst of your decision to purchase (or not to purchase).

You are making a very good point and at the same time not being too clear with some of your statement, so perhaps I would like you to clarified me on the aspect you mentioned that DCA is the best way for founding the lowest price of Bitcoin to accumulate or are you perhaps saying the work of DCA is to be identifying every price dip of Bitcoin before an investor can invest?, perhaps if that be the case you are obviously referring to the lump sum strategy because is the strategy that focus on identifying every price dip to take advantage of while DCA method work contrary to that because waiting to accumulate Bitcoin when the price is lower is the last thing a DCA investors will consider because with DCA you don't need the price to move to a certain direction before you can be convinced to accumulate because at any price you  can buy Bitcoin.