Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 226. (Read 109030 times)

You are referring to my post that relates to my raking tool that is based on rpietla's SSS plan.  And, rpietla has a thread on that too that is linked within that post.

The foundation of the raking tool is that there is a presumption that you have already accumulated more than enough BTC, so there is a certain presumption that whenever you sell any BTC, you are selling with an expectation that you might never be able to buy back, so in that regard you would not sell for small profits, even though you may well only sell a small portion of your BTC holdings.  For example, no more than 10% of your BTC stash for every time that it doubles in price.

The tool that I created does have a section in which you can calculate a probability that you would be able to buy back the BTC that you sold in up to three possible levels, so it is not exactly intended to be used for trading, even though you could sell some small parts of your BTC holdings and then just keep the money (proceeds available) in case the BTC price drops to a certain percentage amount and then you would buy back using some or all of your proceeds from what  you had sold earlier.  I tend to describe these kinds of tactics in terms of insurance for downside rather than trading or necessarily wanting to get more BTC buy buying back lower, but if the BTC price happens to go down to a great enough extent to trigger the buy back of some or all of the BTC, then that would be a kind of side benefit.. even though the overall presumption from my perspective is to sell such a small amount that you are not intending to buy back.. but if the BTC price goes down you would end up buying back.

You can set those buy back levels wherever you like and you can also attempt to use all proceeds to try to buy back lower or you can remove the proceeds so that you are not using proceeds from whatever you sell to buy back in the event that the BTC price goes lower.

There is also a link within that post in which you can go to fillippone's Google spreadsheet and you can input your own numbers in order to play around with the various possibilities to see how the numbers might vary.

Of course, in your example, if you bought $1k worth of bitcoin at $25k and you ended up getting 0.04 BTC, then you could sell half of that amount at $50k to get your $1k back, and potentially try to buy back cheaper.  I surely don't play around with my BTC in those kinds of BIG ways (you would be gambling rather than investing), but instead if you might start to withdraw some BTC starting at $50k and you ONLY have 0.04 BTC, then maybe I might consider potentially selling up to 10% of the BTC stash the first time that the BTC doubles, and then if I wanted to stay consistent, but I did not want to wait for the BTC to double each time, then instead I might sell up to 2.5% of the BTC stash every time that the BTC price went up an additional 25%.  So if we did not calculate buying back, and we strictly consider selling without buying back, then formula for the selling rakes that I described would look like this: 



You see that the total value of the BTC holdings in terms of dollars keeps going up and you are not raking off more than just a portion of the profits, so that you still are able to enjoy compounding effects, which you run the risk of not enjoying compounding effects if you sell off too much of your principle.  Of course you can play around with the numbers, and you may well prefer to shave off higher portions, but I think that you are nutso if you shave off half the profits merely because the BTC price doubled, then you have absolutely no compounding effect and you end up losing a lot of bitcoin's potential Upward price power. 

For sure, in the end, you can do what you want.

Now let's say that you want to use 100% of the proceeds to try to buy back lower, so you try to figure out your chances of buying back upon certain price drops, which surely is going to have lower probabilities the lower that you expect to be able to buy back, so you can plug those into your expectations and it might look something like this.





You set three buy back orders with a 10% drop, a 20% drop and a 30% drop, and you assign probabilities of 30%, 15% and 8% respectively.  With the buy back you end up with more BTC with the passage of time and you also end up having had raked more BTC into dollars (meaning a higher dollar value raked). 

So there can be advantages to buying back, as long as you attempt to set some realistic expectations and don't overly expect to be able to buy back, which would include not selling a lot on the way up so that you can profit on the upside. 

Now if your goal is to accumulate BTC and you feel that you have not accumulated enough BTC, yet, then you probably should not be employing any kind of tools to sell BTC with expectations of being able to buy back, since it seems that you need to first get to a certain high enough level of BTC so that you generally have the sense that you have accumulated enough BTC to be able to feel comfortable shaving some BTC off along the way as the BTC price likely goes up with the passage of time.  I hardly would consider 0.04  BTC to be even close to enough BTC to start such a selling on the way up technique since you are likely still accumulating BTC.. so you would be selling with one hand and buying with the other, yet at the same time, I am not opposed to those who might continue to buy BTC with a DCA method and then try to supplement with some kind of raking strategy, even though it seems a bit contradictory and you may well end up either confusing yourself and/or realizing that instead of buying and selling, maybe you should just focus on buying until you have enough (or more than enough) first before prematurely fucking around with selling.

That's right, I also agree with that, maybe there are or even many investors who plan too early about the long-term accumulation they want to do on bitcoin without thinking first from various angles about whether they will be able to be patient for that long or not, it's very clear that definitely there will always be or even many temptations that look very tempting, such as the condition of Bitcoin which has experienced quite a good increase which indirectly interferes with their confidence and patience to maintain accumulation for longer according to the initial planning, and usually in terms of worries it can also be very disturbing, especially when Bitcoin experienced a fairly significant bearish phase which ultimately made them feel worried. But actually, this is a normal thing because investment is always about profits and losses, where feelings of happiness will arise when your assets experience rapid growth in terms of profits and there will also always be worries that we will feel in several situations. Therefore, of course, maybe I would also agree with your idea above that it is better for us to focus more on consistently maintaining the plans we have made before rather than taking profits too early just because you are too "tempted" by what you see, which means Patience can sometimes be more profitable, but on the other hand we also need to be careful and vigilant in the journey.

Are you letting us know that so far it's about buying Bitcoin that it isn't necessary for the investor to gain proper knowledge about Bitcoin? I doubt if you said so, according to you if you know “which wallet to store your Bitcoin and which exchange to buy that's fine”......well, from your point you only thought of owing Bitcoin and without thinking about its security measures to safeguard your Bitcoin which is crucial.

For me, anyone who wants to own/buy Bitcoin should study Bitcoin better and do not be in a rush to invest because it's not a get-rich-quick scheme business or something that pumps and dumps that someone miss the pumps, it's better to first understand why and what you are investing your money in, Because Bitcoin is here to stay and besides we have DCA strategy which you can use to buy Bitcoin overtime and no need to be in a hurry, I believe in having the proper knowledge about Bitcoin first before investment so you take your investment responsibilities and have no one to blame.
 

You are right if the target is 10 years, of course it requires a lot of patience and there are many obstacles that we have to overcome. Perhaps one of the most crucial things is the existing profits which can trigger a wrong decision if we are influenced by the desire to take short-term profits. For this reason, I agree with you that we should never calculate how much profit there is and it is better for us to continue accumulating bitcoin throughout our investment journey.

Well of course many people don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past so it's not surprising that currently holders are holding onto their bitcoins for longer periods. The ATH target is quite close but that is no longer our benchmark as we want to see BTC price reach $500k. we have to see the big difference that is happening now because if I remember maybe in the past it was very rare for companies to have bitcoin as a reserve in their treasury but now we have seen many large companies continue to buy bitcoin in large amounts. For this reason, I predict that the price of Bitcoin will continue to increase and we must take advantage of every opportunity to continue buying.

When you earn Bitcoin and use it for your living expenses, that is different from investment which we are discussion here and also different from the long time hodl as well. Assuming such person have a fraction of the earned Bitcoin he is saving regularly, similar to what the DCA method, then it could fit into this discussion. So instead of opening another long chapter in this discussion which will serve as a deviation, we can just focus on how to buy and how to hodl.


His comment is just filled with unnecessary wordings that will end up getting him confused. If I say I know what he is actually driving at, it means I am being economical with the truth. It is good you gave that clarification so that people will not get confused further by his placement of DCA method with trading investing.

That hasn't happened yet because 2030 is still a long time away. He has only lasted 2 years until now while holding on until 2030 is not easy especially if you can't manage your cash flow well.

If you have an investment plan in the next 10 years then now never look at the profits that are in your mind because it's still too far away, it's better how the accumulation can last for a long time because of course the obstacles will be even harder if you can't handle it well, so I think now maintain good cash flow then everything will be smooth in the accumulation.

Almost most investors have now been able to survive until the ATH now, because they see the benefits are close, but if there is someone from the ordinary people who can withstand the current cycle then he is great for excluding profits in the bullish now.

well I went through the post but I think I would go through with it again for more solid understanding, this part quoted you actually said something that caught my interest, concerning the selling of some profit in your bitcoin and replacing it. We all know that whenever bitcoin dip your coin don't reduce in quantity but the value does. But when you selling from it you are actually reducing the quantity of your bitcoin right.  And we know buying low price would give more advantage's buying in high price , like when Bitcoin was $25k those if you purchase $1k worth of bitcoin at that time you would endup with 0.04 BTC , but if you purchase that same amount which is $1k worth of bitcon when the price was $50k you would endup with 0.02 worth of Bitcoin, which is lesser than when you purchase at $25k.

So In a scenario where I purchased $1k dollar worth of bitcoin at the price of $25k, having 0.04 bitcoin and lateron the price rose to $50k and I sold out 0.02 from my bitcoin that am holding, having the mindset of replacing it back, and lateron price experience a surge to the price range of $69k and kept increasing. If I want to replace it then what step should I take should I wait or the  or should I increase the money want to I wanna use to purchase to coverup 0.02 bitcoin at that price range of $69k and above.

Please hope this wasn't confusing, and if I had made any mistake please do so in correcting me .

In as much as you are right that every investment requires the right knowledge before venturing into it. Bitcoin doesn't require much from you in terms of knowledge. The more you are wasting time to know have more knowledge about bitcoin before investing the more you are wasting your time and if you don't have a portfolio in bitcoin you are not a holder. Provided you know which wallet to store your bitcoin and how to buy from cex or dex I think you are fine. After all you are buying for the long term, and you can know other things you wish to know along your holding period. Bitcoin doesn't require any professional knowledge before you can buy and hold.

DCA strategy is is a method of buying bitcoin at a certain intervals on a regular basis and not for trading investing. Don't confuse yourself with this thing. I don't know what you are referring to as fixed asset, but for the purpose of this thread DCA is a method of buying bitcoin. We are not discussing other investment assets here.

Since you are talking about taking profits, you are likely not really engaging in long term investing, unless we are just quibbling over semantics.

So in your case, you are less than 2 years registered on the forum, so we might presume that you have around less than 2 years investing into bitcoin.  It could be possible that you are at a state that you have accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin to take risks to take profits at various price points that may well end up not being tops... so if we are still in the stage of our bitcoin investment journey, we have to be careful regarding selling too much too soon with expectations to buy back cheaper.. and unless you have over accumulated, it would be difficult to describe that as long-term investing rather than either trading and/or gambling. 

In the end, it is up to you to assess the extent to which you might have had overaccumulated BTC in such a way that you are justified to sell some, especially if you might still be trying to get more, which would seem to be harder to reach the conclusion that you have overaccumulated if you feel that you still do not have enough coin.


You don't have to be in bitcoin for more than 10 years to be able to reach a conclusion that you are able to shave off some profits without any expectation of buying back.

If you have reached a conclusion that you have enough BTC, then you could shave off some BTC at various points in time as the BTC price is going up and you can figure that you would have fewer and fewer BTC if the BTC price were to keep going up.. but part of the BIG question would be determining that you largely have enough (or more than enough) BTC in order to start to employ such a raking strategy, which I outline in this post.

holding such time would definitely be epic though. Just imagine the growth bitcoin may have undergo during such time. Bitcoin price would be more than $100k because the potential bitcoin has is more than that. By such time we would be expecting something nice from our holding. You selling your bitcoin now when you haven't hit your accumulation goal. That is a sign of no principle in  your investment , though I know we are in good profit due to the recent risen in price bitcoin undergo but this profit would be lesser than the one you would yield in a long run.
 
Like those that start their hodling from the year 2013 till now when bitcoin price was still low,  during that time they may have stash alot of good quantity of bitcoin, so those set of people can decide to take some profit from their investment without selling all their investment, because they know clearly that they won't have that same privileged to accumulate bitcoin in such low price again. And aslong bitcoin keep growing (which it would) their Bitcoin value in their portfolio would keep increasing massively.

He must have used the term "small amount" because the DCA method is more geared towards people who cannot afford to buy bitcoin in large amounts at once, i.e. those who do not earn much and cannot sacrifice all of their income to do so. So he may be assuming it is for people who have little money to spare to buy bitcoin, and if they do, they will only receive a small amount of bitcoin in comparison to the money they spent on it. The investment will grow over time, regardless of how small it is, and will eventually become so large that the word “small amount” will no longer qualify it to be called.


I am delighted to hear this because not everyone can be patient and optimistic about the future of bitcoin until 2030 without first withdrawing and profiting from their investment and then attempting to reinvest using the same DCA method. Not all, but even when bitcoin recently reached $64K, some people must have taken partial profits and saved the rest for the main bull run, which is expected next year. DCA is a good investment strategy because it makes you to narrow down your average price for purchasing each bitcoin.

If I were you, I would still take a partial profit by the next bull run when the price exceeds $100K since I can still continue my DCA and accumulate more bitcoin before the next bull run takes place.  However, stick to your plan; if I were in your shoes, I would have thought the same thing, but since I am not, I am just sharing my opinion. This is what we call the long-term investor vibe in Bitcoin.

It would be extraordinary if you were able to hold your investment until 2030 from 2022, because from the increase in prices that you have seen now, of course you yourself already know how much profit you have made from this. But if you still want to get something bigger than the current one, it's certainly not wrong for you to try it because Bitcoin investors must have a long-term investment plan. I am also still holding back part of my investment during this time because I also believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach the price you mentioned, although I only hope to see a new ATH in Bitcoin this year because that is also more likely to be expected by everyone now

I think not everyone on this forum invests in Bitcoin. But it is a place from which there is much to know and understand. Must understand before starting any business and this one of the best platform where we learning about BTC and trading BTC.
On the other hand Some may have portfolios in the stock market, others cryptocurrency, bonds, real estate, or other jobs. From there we can share the experience on this forum. Regarding the DCAs strategy have been designed the impact of trading investing, fixed asset remain regular over time. It's have no limited to BTC but it can apply to any others investment.

If you have to invest with the intention of earning good returns, follow the DCA method and keep it for at least two years. The years 2024 and 2025 are the best time to hold Bitcoin because if you are patient for a while, you can definitely reap the benefits from here. If you take the DCA method based on the current price of Bitcoin, the average price will definitely control and your buying volume will decrease. So invest your money quickly by following the DCA method and you will definitely be ready to hold for a long time from here. Remember that investing in Bitcoin with the DCA method creates investment interest.

You are right if you can invest here in a small scale, then the price is not an issue, but bitcoin sometimes rises so fast, in some cases it happens so fast that many people here can not even want to invest. Here it is very important to invest consistently in terms of investment.

Many times it is seen that even if you invest much less, if you maintain the consistency, it is possible to achieve a very good profit.

I made a small investment in 2022 which I am currently investing in DCA method. I didn't let myself get greedy on this little bullrun, up $64k a couple of days ago but I didn't sell the investment. I expect Bitcoin to exceed $100k after the halving. If I don't need money urgently during the bull market in 2025, I will not sell my investment, I will hold it for 2030 plus period.

Yes, you are right, not everyone who bought Bitcoin in 2022 is still holding their Bitcoin until now and even if there are, they may have sold some of what they have for various reasons. To be able to hold a certain amount of Bitcoin in the long term certainly requires good planning. and also we must have an income that can meet the needs we need because if we do not have good planning and a steady income then it is very unlikely that we will be able to hold on for a long time.

Yes, that's not a problem because everyone may have opportunities that they make the most of and sometimes some of them ignore them. Of course, investment goals require several factors that can make you patient in long-term investment and this can only be done by people who truly believe in the current progress of Bitcoin. If you look at the 2022 period, of course those with weak hands may now regret their decision and that is a bad thing for them to remember. There are people who are able to take advantage of the opportunity to buy on dips and hold them for the long term because investment is not just buying and holding but we also have to be active in the current development of Bitcoin's progress.

Many people say Bitcoin will reach ATH, and what we need to know is that they have taken advantage of the 2022 dips to accumulate more BTC and now their dream has come true. Of course the mental burden is within us, but it depends on how we manage it to release our thoughts to other things when the market changes suddenly. If that is successful, we need one more factor, namely patience.

In principle, those of us who already have experience with Bitcoin and the best way to manage our finances, of course our psychology is strong enough to face the many fuds circulating and our decision is only to hold on and achieve success in the future. Moreover, Bitcoin only has a supply of 21 million coins, so that's what we remember so as not to make any more mistakes in the investment we are currently carrying out.

Store Small amounts?? Or buy bitcoins  in a flexible way, either it's low or high doesn't really matter so far it gives a much more flexible way to buy Bitcoin over a longer period of time, giving an additional opportunity to hold and continue buying at the same time.

Generally DCA have little or no contribution to  storing  but centralise more on buying  strategy,you used the word "purchase" later which seem to suit and buttressed your point.

That's not the point I am trying to make here, I am less trying to make that decision for anyone but what I am trying to point out is what exactly are you taking advantage of the bull run? or losing your holding to someone who is more willing to hold longer, IMO bitcoin has well passed that level for us to be treating it like some mere ponzi investment that you buy at a lower point and sell at a new ATH, many old investors have done this and have regretted from doing so because bitcoin continued to increase in price and more compounding value effect happend on it, what about those that bought bitcoin when it was about 8k and sold when it hit 30k, would any of them feel okay when they see the price at 100k knowing that if they held longer that they would have had more substantial profits than selling sooner.

And most of here are still very early in bitcoin and we should have no business selling cause we don't even have enough bitcoin to play around with or let's say sell a little, you can take advantage of the bull run if you are well prepared in bitcoin and I mean having enough and that enough is a choice that everyone has to make for himself according to his or her fuck you status.
And that is even the more reason why selling at an early stage of investment is a bad idea cause you don't know anything and can't be so certain about anything, you could sell at 100k and bitcoin would reach a new ATH of 200k and your 100k backwards and you can't even take advantage of it cause you have sold your holdings, sir jay once spoke of selling in a way that you would sell with each trippling or doubling on your investment like up to 25% but this strategy is for those that have well built their portfolio and have some coins that are very old and have lots of profits on them so that you don't end up selling too much of your stash and if your stash is still small and you know it then selling should not be for you.


Now that might never happen bitcoin might or would never return to prices like 30k or 25k even if the bear comes and we might never know how far the bull might take us and think in such terms is quite a gamble cause many person's have made this analysis and given them selfs reason to sell think the price would drop back down but it never did.