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Topic: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance) (Read 1366 times)

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Yeesha on October 23, 2024, 12:35:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 24, 2023, 10:32:30 AM

This thread serves as an extension to the maintenance and liquidation portion of my BTC Investment ideas thread since some of the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.
1)   This post: Introduction (Opening Post 1):
2)   Opening Post 2: Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account
3)   Opening Post 3: Establishing price-based sell thresholds - including potential buy back options (yes seeming to border on trading - but really could be considered as ways to insure the BTC holdings from inevitable volatility
4)   Opening Post 4: Reserved - still to be determined
I am hoping that some of these ideas will be helpful to others, besides me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread? Please do.

Even though I made this as a self-moderated thread, I am open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks herein, but at my discretion I may delete posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes.
Last Edited: December 17, 2023

I have been acknowledging you and recognizing your efforts and contribution to this forum, you are so Educative and your expertise is impressive, you must be wondering why I posted today and the thread has been existing for months, well I came across it today and I found it interesting, informative and helpful so I decided to read it.

It took me some time to read it, but after reading it I realized that those time I spent on it does not go in vain, because this thread will really be helpful to me and i believe that it will also be helpful to a lots of people in the forum. Following this ideas will help someone to become a successful/good bitcoin investor. I really appreciate your guidance. Thanks

Of course, learning through the forum allows for more of an interactive process, as compared with just reading some information sources in other formats, so surely I don't mind interacting with members on the topic of this thread or my BTC Investment ideas thread that is also linked within the OP of this thread. I consider my investment ideas thread to be touching upon the more basic ideas of BTC accumulation and more applicable to more people since the inspirations regarding why any of us might choose to invest into bitcoin as compared with other places that we can place time, energies and value might come through ideas that I attempt to discuss in my investment ideas thread,... so surely the investment ideas thread seems to have a potential to help guys to consider, plan and/or put into practice the accumulation of bitcoin and to potentially be able to focus on bitcoin accumulation rather than considering trading, gambling and/or the accumulation and/or fucking around with shitcoins.

This here sustainable withdrawal and/or portfolio maintenance thread may well be for those bitcoiners who have already mostly gotten through their BTC accumulation stages or who have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC, so they might start to plan, consider and put into practice what they might be doing to either maintain their BTC holdings or to start to employ sustainable withdrawal practices (price based and/or time based), to the extent to which they might consider bitcoin as a long-term life-time investment, rather than an investment (or trade) that they might want to sell for dollars in shorter timelines (absent if they might have some age or health issues that might contribute to their having to sell their BTC rather than their considering and/or employing some kinds of sustainable withdrawal practices - like those discussed in this thread).

Absence some evidence to the contrary (or some affirmative statement to demonstrate otherwise), I tend to presume that an overwhelming majority of forum members are similarly situated as the vast majority of the world's population in which a vast majority are either early in their BTC accumulation phases or they still have not yet accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, whether they are a low coiner or hopefully not a no coiner (even though there are some no coiner forum members participate in this forum too). .. so anyhow, absent your having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC (or telling me that's your status), my BTC investment ideas thread might be more appropriate for your particulars, unless you want to point out some of your own particulars or questions that might allow some consideration that this thread might be applicable to your situation. Let me know, and surely I have no problem with any forum members interacting with the ideas of this thread or even posting questions or comments within the thread after decently long periods of no posting herein.. From my perspective the ideas are largely evergreen, even if I might have some changes in some of my ideas from time to time in regards to the applicability of some of the particulars.

Yeesha

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 24, 2023, 10:32:30 AM

This thread serves as an extension to the maintenance and liquidation portion of my BTC Investment ideas thread since some of the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.

1)   This post: Introduction (Opening Post 1):
2)   Opening Post 2: Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account
3)   Opening Post 3: Establishing price-based sell thresholds - including potential buy back options (yes seeming to border on trading - but really could be considered as ways to insure the BTC holdings from inevitable volatility
4)   Opening Post 4: Reserved - still to be determined

I am hoping that some of these ideas will be helpful to others, besides me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread? Please do.

Even though I made this as a self-moderated thread, I am open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks herein, but at my discretion I may delete posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes.

Last Edited: December 17, 2023

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bitmover on June 08, 2024, 06:57:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 12:36:09 AM

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I was asking your opinion about how much %of btc is health in a 2 MI usd portfolio?
30, 50%?

In a diversified portfolio with bonds and etf.

I am asking because you said before that you were already retired and had a diversified portfolio when you got to btc.

Of course there are different ways that you can treat you overall investment portfolio, and probably until the last year or so, I had been hypothesizing that even if bitcoin might have a higher potential return rate as compared with other assets in your portfolio, you could well treat the withdrawal rate similarly - however, I think that a lot of our more indepth sustainable withdrawal discussion, including how the sustainable withdrawal tool really shows how very much higher withdrawal rates can be maintained with bitcoin as compared with other assets... so even when we developed the sustainable withdrawal tool, I had already hypothesized that 6-10% would be quite sustainable - and I suppose that I am becoming more and more convicted in regards to that, especially after you had gotten the historical tracking to be working.

I am considering that none of us necessarily purposefully diversify into other assets, but yeah surely there might be some point where it makes sense to diversify into other assets, since it might not be comfortable to ONLY have investments in bitcoin and cash..so yeah, I cannot really say how much property, stocks, commodities, bonds or other investments to have, especially since mine has largely just been to let my BTC ride, and not really doing much if any diversifying. so largely the Bitcoin portion has grown to dwarf my other investments.. even though they already exist and I am largely just considering that package other investments as having a withdrawal rate of around 4% and the bitcoin to have a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, even though I personally still have not been withdrawing out of my bitcoin at anything close to that high of rates since my various other funds continue to support me, even though surely there are times that I try to spend more.. or to increase my spending budget in order that I can spend more bitcoin proceeds.

I have not updated my own disclosures of my percentage of allocations since mid-2022 - but you can see how my bitcoin versus other assets have evolved with my largely starting out in bitcoin with about 13.5% in late 2014 in bitcoin and most of the growth came from bitcoin appreciation rather than reallocating... so yeah maybe now my bitcoin is in the 80% to 90% territory.. and I see no real reason to purposefully sell my winner to diversify into losers (relatively speaking), and so I have difficulties answering regarding how much others might be justified to invest into various other assets.

Quote from: MusaMohamed on June 08, 2024, 09:34:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 12:36:09 AM

I was trying to figure out what bitmover was talking about, and I misunderstood him, but yeah, I stick by my comment of some kind of a reasonable rate of withdrawal that someone might consider once he has gotten his BTC holding to a high enough amount... and so frequently I try to use 10% for every 100% increase in BTC price as a kind of potential guideline, so then we could also do 1% for every 10% rise or we could do 3% for every 30% rise and still stay within the parameters of that same formula... and yeah currently I am not withdrawing that high of a rate.. but I can understand if someone might want to use something like that rate as a ballpark guidance of potential reasonableness.

Quote from: MusaMohamed on June 08, 2024, 09:34:46 PM

My thinking for it is

I will sell my bitcoin, wait for price correction to like 5% or 10% and buy bitcoin. By this I will have +5% or +10% more bitcoins, and I will withdraw it with 3% of a new number of bitcoin in my portfolio. I will have +2% or +7% more bitcoins after that withdrawal round.

What do you think?

You are talking about trading and expecting to be able to buy back, so I am not talking about that. Sure I have some locations that I mention that you could buy back if the BTC price drops, but I am not choosing my amounts to sell or even guiding to sell with the purpose of being able to buy back. From my thinking, if you have purpose of buying back or some kind of a need to buy back, then you are doing something different from what I am suggesting.. since my suggested sales both relies on reaching a status of overaccumulation and also has no expectation of being able to buy back cheaper..

Quote from: MusaMohamed on June 08, 2024, 09:34:46 PM

If I worry that I take profit too low, I will wait for BTC price rise like 50% to use this strategy.

Sure nothing wrong with giving some kind of a extra cushion to the point in which you might start to sell your bitcoin, but if you are considering being able to buy back cheaper, then you are thinking about the matter different from my own thinking about how to set up my sales decisions (if any)..

MusaMohamed

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 12:36:09 AM

Consider to withdraw when Bitcoin price goes up 30%, then withdraw 3% of BTC in portfolio.

Could you explain more like you will withdraw by selling 3% of your bitcoin in portfolio when BTC price goes up 30%?

My thinking for it is

I will sell my bitcoin, wait for price correction to like 5% or 10% and buy bitcoin. By this I will have +5% or +10% more bitcoins, and I will withdraw it with 3% of a new number of bitcoin in my portfolio. I will have +2% or +7% more bitcoins after that withdrawal round.

What do you think?

If I worry that I take profit too low, I will wait for BTC price rise like 50% to use this strategy.

Aanuoluwatofunmi

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Quote from: bitmover on June 08, 2024, 06:57:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 12:36:09 AM

Following up with you both is interesting and enlightening as well because one of the things am also considering on this is to set a model on the percentage I will be considering on by bitcoin portfolio later in the future after considering other asset as second plan on my investments, anyone having a future or long term plan for himself will have to consider some of the points raised from this discussion as being relevant because they can also build their own decision from them and still follow up the trend.

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 12:36:09 AM

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 12:54:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

How much BTC and/or value to use: Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location. However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used).

I have been thinking a lot about this fuck you status recently

Do you think an overall portfolio of 2 mi USD is enough to retire? Fuck you status? If so, how much btc would be healthy?

My own thinking has been evolving on the topic, so I am not really sure how to say it in ways that are really clear, since I think that each of us has to find our spot and our formula for when and how to start to employ something like a sustainable withdrawal.. not only in terms of the amount needed, but also who much could be withdrawn once we figure out that we have enough of a pot to be able to sustainably withdrawal.

Sure the dollar value of target is going to continue to move because of the ongoing debasement of the dollar - yet I still prefer not to let the ongoing and inevitalbe debasement of the dollar to interfere with my own calculations regarding how BTC can play a role in sustainable withdrawal, since it seems to me that bitcoin is not being debased at the same rate as fiat (that is if bitcoin is being debased at all since it has the opposite monetary policy that does not involve actual debasement but instead a fixed supply and a known rate of issuance.

So that $2 million comes from traditional ideas of a 4% withdrawal rate (which would therefor result in a $6,666 per month withdrawal - $80k per year), and since I am more and more inclined to believe that bitcoin bitcoin can sustain a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, then that means that not as much bitcoin is needed to be able to achieve that same withdrawal amount of $6,666. So right now presuming that 6% is sustainable, then that would mean that you would need $1,333,333 in order to get that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month, and if you are presuming that 10% is sustainable then you would only need $800k of BTC to obtain that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month.. ..

So using the 200-WMA, $2 million is 56.3 BTC, $1,333,333 is 37.5 BTC and $800k is 22.5BTC. You can look for yourself at https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So then the question becomes how much do you believe either the formulas being sustainable or alternatively that you might need some other kind of a cushion.. including if you have calculated your own income needs correctly.

Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 12:54:26 PM

30%?

Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 12:54:26 PM

I have been making many btc price projections, and it looks like Bitcoin is likely to reach 100-150k after trumps election.

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Regarding you presumption of Trump's election? and then whether that would cause a certain BTC price direction. I am not sure about all of that.

Personally, despite USA politics, I am thinking that odds are pretty decently that BTC prices would end up bouncing around somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024 (and yeah that is not much different from what you are saying), and that in 2025, the BTC prices are likely to reach higher levels than 2024.. I hate to personally attempt to be any more specific than that, yet in any event the main measure (from my point of view) of the 200-WMA is continuing to go up and currently going up right around $42 per day.

But yeah, if you are thinking about selling or shaving off some BTC, you are thinking in terms of how much spot price you are going to get rather than 200-WMA.. so I understand those spot price kinds of framings are important to folks (normies/hodlers).

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

I have been thinking a lot about this fuck you status recently

Do you think an overall portfolio of 2 mi USD is enough to retire? Fuck you status? If so, how much btc would be healthy? 30%?

I have been making many btc price projections, and it looks like Bitcoin is likely to reach 100-150k after trumps election.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bitmover on May 20, 2024, 01:23:37 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 19, 2024, 06:08:21 PM

So yeah figuring out an allocation to bitcoin could be something like 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio to be allocated into bitcoin, but surely if you are more of a beginner in terms of building your investment portfolio, you may well be considering ways to accumulate bitcoin that revolve around 1) dollar cost averaging, 2) lump sum investing and/or 3) buying on dips. I am also not much into trading and/or selling bitcoin in an attempt to accumulate more, which gets us back to the topic of this here particular thread presuming that if you are considering either maintenance and/or various forms of sustainable withdrawal, then you have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC.

I have about 30% in bitcoin. I was worried about that as I considered it a lot.

However, after recents discussions with you JJG, and some recent thoughts about the market , I stopped selling for a while. I will try to increase it.

I regreted not have accumulated more before 2020 or in 2022... I will keep accumulating what I can now, but I believe the future is very bullish. No reason to sell for now.

The percentage of allocation can quite vary depending on individual circumstances, including questions about whether you have other investments, and surely if you are starting your first investment with bitcoin, then all that you are going to have is bitcoin and dollars, but if you are starting your investment with an already existing diversified portfolio (referring to traditional assets, not shitcoins), then you may well consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be a good target.. for example, a guy who might come into bitcoin and already have $50k invested in index stocks or something like that... then he might consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be something like $2,500 to $12,500 - but then if his allocation in bitcoin grows based on bitcoin growing rather than his putting more into bitcoin, then he may well consider how to treat that growth and whether it is worth it to allocate in other assets or just grow his bitcoin portion until it reaches some kind of a meaningful size..

so if his annual income/expenses might be in the ballpark of $40k per year, then maybe he is going to want to get his bitcoin holdings up to 1 or 2 years of his annual income/expenses prior to considering any kind of need to diversify into other assets.

For sure, these are not easy choices, but there are likely folks who might already have various kinds of traditional investments who decide to ONLY focus on bitcoin in terms of their new accumulations of investments, even though they surely might let their traditional investments ride.

Another problem is that some western countries have is the existence of 401k-like products, which are both tax free but also those products might have employer matching contributions, and so with those folks, they may be tempted to invest into those 401k-like products, and they might not even have a lot (if any) discretionary income remaining after they had already allocated to those 401k-like products (and which products are ONLY recently potentially getting bitcoin ETFs as one of the allocation options within them).

But, yeah, folks who do not have any of those employer and/or government-sponsored products, they may well come to investing and they may well start investing into bitcoin, and bitcoin is largely their only investment, so they are merely diversifying (or slightly de-risking) the amount of their BTC exposure by figuring out how much cash to keep.. so they are largely just BTC and cash, so they may well end up having 70% to 90% in BTC and the other part in cash and/or various kinds of cash alternatives (again not necessarily referring to shitcoins - even though some folks in poorer countries might not have a lot of investment options outside of the "crypto" space)....

..so then if the holdings in the overall investment portfolio are mostly just bitcoin and cash or cash equivalents, then at some point - maybe after 1-2 years worth of income and/or expenses is starting to build up into the BTC /cash holdings.. there may well be some concerns that the cash portions are not working enough.. so even though BTC is quite volatile, the BTC portion might still be considered as "working" so there may well. be some desires to have more of the cash portions to be working also, which in some senses justifies the concept of diversification into a variety of other assets.. maybe adding one new asset at a time ever year or every few years.. .... or there might be some other considerations that a person might have based on the investment options that he considers to be available to him.. and hopefully no more than 10% of the value of bitcoin will go into any shitcoins.. even though people have to make those kinds of choices for themselves based on their perceptions of options... and if they might consider whether they are able to invest in stocks, property, commodities, bonds or other forms of cash/cash equivalents.

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 19, 2024, 06:08:21 PM

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: AVE5 on May 19, 2024, 04:03:33 AM

With all that analysis being scaled and compared to my kind of person, I've found your this logics to be helpful for my bitcoin holding.
It'd as much enable me to set up my financial portfolio in disciplinary measures with a specific goal of of how to maintain my desired bankroll also as foreseeing potentials self custodian on the indulgence.
While I'm just diving in to this crypto pool recently, I'm submissive to adopt the ideal without any formative of corrections.
Thanks @ JJG for the knowledge impacts.

Both in regards to the topic and in regards to what you are doing, you are speaking a bit vaguely AVE5.

First off, your mentioning of "crypto" is like meaningless gobbledy-gook, especially since in this thread I am specifically aiming at various ideas that are specifically focused on bitcoin, and a lot of the ideas of the posts of this particular thread attempt to deal with situations in which a bitcoin holder may well have already gotten through a lot of his earliest of accumulation stages, yet I have another thread in which I attempt to address bitcoin investment ideas more generally.

Second, you seem to be suggesting that you are still working on your own accumulation of bitcoin and/or figuring out how bitcoin fits into your overall investment portfolio, and surely there is nothing wrong with that, since I tend to presume that it may well take 4-10 years or longer for anyone to really build their investment portfolio - unless they might already be an experience investor who is reallocating portions of an already existing investment portfolio in order to add bitcoin exposure (or perhaps increase bitcoin exposure).

So yeah figuring out an allocation to bitcoin could be something like 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio to be allocated into bitcoin, but surely if you are more of a beginner in terms of building your investment portfolio, you may well be considering ways to accumulate bitcoin that revolve around 1) dollar cost averaging, 2) lump sum investing and/or 3) buying on dips. I am also not much into trading and/or selling bitcoin in an attempt to accumulate more, which gets us back to the topic of this here particular thread presuming that if you are considering either maintenance and/or various forms of sustainable withdrawal, then you have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC.

AVE5

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With all that analysis being scaled and compared to my kind of person, I've found your this logics to be helpful for my bitcoin holding.
It'd as much enable me to set up my financial portfolio in disciplinary measures with a specific goal of of how to maintain my desired bankroll also as foreseeing potentials self custodian on the indulgence.
While I'm just diving in to this crypto pool recently, I'm submissive to adopt the ideal without any formative of corrections.
Thanks @ JJG for the knowledge impacts.

Jon pyagbara

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I just went followed up this thread now, and trust me it's so rich in knowledge that I ever thought of, I have been here all day going through the threads and to be honest, Sir I really commend and appreciate your effort in putting this piece together for people like us to read and acquire knowledge

vapourminer

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 07, 2024, 05:47:15 PM

If your are referring to some kind of video content on the page, then I think that we have these kinds of suggestions in the back of our minds, though neither of us personally are wanting to do this kind of thing.

Even logically it would seem most appropriate for someone like me (the creator) to explain the content in a video (or a cartoon), but I have not been presenting myself in the actual live video form on the forum, and not even my avatar has been animated, so far. OpSec, you know.

So then there can be questions whether we could come up with something animated (such as a cartoon in the event that we cannot figure out some other animated content..) as we improve upon the page and even add more pages, so maybe once we have the first few basic pages in place (adding one or more tools), then we might be able to consider possible ways to add some additional animation or visuals to the content.

I am not even opposed to guys making specific suggestions or even proposing some kind of an animation (or visuals) that we could add or even pay for it if someone were to want to negotiate a reasonable price to do it and if they were to present the materials in a way that seems to be more helpful than not.

sounds like a job for AI animation. just feed it a script and tweak to desired style. instant instructional cartoons. dunno where to get such a thing or how much the cost but it may achieve the desired amount of opsec. ie pay AI studio with btc or whatever, digital delivery etc.

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 12:58:04 PM

That sounds even more amazing than I was expecting. You might become eligible for a Nobel prize.. ahahahahaha..

ahaha i hope I can get up to your expectations.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)
Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

I just did this one, and also a "bonus" 200W highs and lows (I think this fits well in the tool).

https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I will see about the other items soon!

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 12:32:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

I can add 2 withdrawal days, 8 and 22.

The algorithm start date can be a user input. Any date he like.

It will also use the other inputs (stash size and withdrawal rate).

Then it will show a simulation of how much btc(and usd value) would have been withdrawal, and how much is left. And a chart with that data.

I think it will look nice.

That sounds even more amazing than I was expecting. You might become eligible for a Nobel prize.. ahahahahaha..

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 12:32:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Ok, this is easy I will take a look into this and the shareable url

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 10:56:18 AM

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Ok, this is easy I will take a look into this and the shareable url

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 25, 2024, 09:29:37 PM

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I was thikning about something simple. Like, selling always the first day of the month (as we cannot know which day will be the best or the worse day to sell).
Then, the stash would be recalculated based in the value to sell each first day of the month.

For anyone trying to follow this part of the conversation, in regards to the tool.. there may well be a need for a reference... https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy and we also talk about aspects of the tool in bitmover's thread.. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-jjg-sustainable-bitcoin-withdrawal-strategy-5479482

Of course, there is a difference between manually entering your withdrawals (BTC sales), and doing it based on an algorithm, and this kind of historical illustration that you are considering would largely be intended to show how the system would play out if the withdrawals were based on the then applicable formula were to be followed in a kind of strict and formulaic way.

If you enter that kind of system, then it is no longer going to look like my column C, and that is o.k... but the idea could be retained, and I would recommend starting out with similar kinds of parameters that I had used.. or perhaps starting out with an earlier date in order to show how it would play out with a longer history.

Regarding the parameters to input and to start out with:

Day of the month: Personally, I wouldn't want to pick the first day of the month, but maybe a date in the middle of the month or towards the end of the month. but if you want it to be consistent then maybe pick something like the 22th or some other date that would not be quite as common.... and I am a bit bothered about the idea of locking in sales all on one date, even though that is easier for an algorithm. I agree with your assertion that we cannot really know when the dips and the raises are gong to be, but with an actual real world manual application, we might have a bit of an idea, and picking dates can help us to play the little gambling streak that so many folks have.. yeah of course, there may well be personalities (and maybe time constraints) in which they just want to get it done with and then to have that money in cash for the month.. but there also can be desires to spread it out during the month.. and to see what happens.. maybe take half out in the beginning of the month and then see how the other have of the month plays out.

In my own rendition, I had put the date towards the end of the month because I was considering that various sales/withdrawals would be done at various points in the month in order to reach the maximum allowance for the month at some point towards the end of the month .. and so in my own hypothetical, if the maximum allowance for the month might be 0.064 BTC and then at some point of the month 0.02 BTC might get spent and then another point another 0.02 BTC and then at another point the remaining 0.02 BTC, and with an attempt to stay a little bit below the maximum authorization. Yet, once all the spending for the month had been accomplished the next month would come and have an additional authorization for 0.063 BTC or some quantity of BTC that would be slightly reduced in terms of total withdrawal authorization amount, so part of the problem if the whole wadd were to be spent at one shot in the beginning of the month would mean a need to wait all the way until the next month before having another authorization.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

How much BTC and/or value to use: Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location. However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used).

O.k. Here is my updated chart:

I added running total columns (E and J) that show the spot price amount withdrawn and the 200-WMA amount reduced.

We could start out with the same value of $500k in October 2022 or we could go back a whole 4-year cycle, and then the amount of starting out BTC would be different, but I am pretty sure that it will hold its value in terms of measuring the value from the 200-WMA, and we see that my limited chart, the 200-WMA value continues to go up, but I was using a 4% withdrawal rate and even quite below the authorized withdrawal rate. I think that for any kind of algorithmic application of the formulas (and back testing it), it would be fair and reasonable to use a 6% withdrawal rate and then see how it plays out.

If we were to go back 4-years from now, of course, we would get into the whole calamity of the large correction that was in March 2020, so maybe we could either start from January 2020 or alternatively start from July 2020.

If we were to start from January 1, 2020, the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $5,084.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 98.35 BTC. On the other hand, if we start with July 1, 2020 the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $6,114.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 81.78 BTC.

Hopefully all of this is not too crazy-sounding... but I am having quite a bit of confidence in the tool and the various formulas that we have chosen to provide guidance in terms of ways in which to withdraw BTC consistently, persistently and ongoingly while being able to retain dollar value in terms of measuring in terms of the 200-WMA, even if we were to use a 6% withdrawal rate.

Another thing that seems to worry people is a potential need for the value of their overall BTC portfolio to continue to grow in terms of dollar value so that they will be able to withdraw more value in the future in order to keep up with the inevitable ongoing debasement of the dollar and the value of the dollar... and surely there could be needs to make adjustments to the withdrawal rate, yet I remain confident that currently, even with a 6 % withdrawal rate, the BTC holdings will hold their value and even sufficiently increase in value in regards to valuing holdings in light of the 200-WMA sufficiently enough in order to keep up with inflation (and/or the ongoing persistent and inevitable debasement of the dollar).

I just went back and did a quick calculation that even starting from October 2022 and with 21 BTC, even if we would have withdrawn at a 6% per year rate, and just do a quickie calculation of 0.1 BTC per month (even though the tool recommends to reduce the rate of withdrawal once the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, but even if we withdrew 0.1 BTC for the last 17 months, we would end up with a reduction of our BTC holdings from 21 BTC to 19.3 BTC, and the 200-WMA value of the BTC holdings would have gone from $490k in October 2022 to $605k today.. of course BTC spot price is even greater, but this tool is attempting to help us to emphasize value based on the 200-WMA so that we are less likely to get caught up in the rash exuberance of BTC spot price changes, even though at the same time, we are advantaged to be able to sell BTC and to receive spot price which is usually (but not always) 25% or more higher than the 200-WMA.

See that experimental chart of 0.1 BTC withdrawal per month here:

Even though the flat rate is simpler to follow, it does not take advantage of either reductions or the advance months that the tool attempts to guide.. and of course, if we start with 0.1 BTC, in order to stick with 6%, we should be reducing the amount each month otherwise we are going to be withdrawing way more than 6%, but it still goes with my argument that it is my tentative conclusion that anywhere between 6% and 10% fit within levels of moderate sustainability.. and the more that you would use the guidelines of the tool, then the more likely you could gravitate more and more towards more aggressive levels of withdrawal while at the same time likely being able to retain the dollar value of your BTC holdings in light of its 200-WMA valuations.

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 25, 2024, 09:29:37 PM

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)

Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Part of the reason for the highs and lows was to maybe sometimes to go back and compare the various actual prices of any particular day to the 200-WMA.. so sometimes the answer in the tool might not show all of the possibilities for the day, since sometimes authorizations for how many months in advance to withdraw or even if the amount of withdrawal might be reduced if the BTC price is below certain thresholds that we chose to use in the tool.

Quote from: bitmover on February 26, 2024, 04:48:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 25, 2024, 09:29:37 PM

or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

Well, I can do this, it is easy. The point is that there are so few inputs (2 fields). But this is easy task. You will get an unique shareable URL.

I see that in the saved inputs there seem to ONLY be 2, but wouldn't 3-4 inputs be possible? or is it not possible to save or share 3 & 4?

1) withdrawal rate (percentage)

2) size of BTC stash

3) date

4) whether date is selected or not

Maybe 3 and 4 are just one field.

bitmover

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 25, 2024, 09:29:37 PM

Quote

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)

Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

Quote

or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

Well, I can do this, it is easy. The point is that there are so few inputs (2 fields). But this is easy task. You will get an unique shareable URL.

JayJuanGee

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Quote from: bitmover on February 25, 2024, 08:04:44 PM

Hello JJG.
i see you are always mentioning the tool in WO thread. I am happy that it is being useful!

I am thinking about future improvements, and I was reading this old post again,

I noticed that in your original sheet, you were thinking much about the past months and the overall balance.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 03, 2023, 04:03:32 PM

Do you think it would be nice to make a chart of this column C??

It is doable, we just need to enter an input where which would mean when to start using this strategy. I was thinking about showing the past, like you did here.

I am not opposed to something like that if you think that it might be more helpful than it is ending up to clutter. When I first started out with the hypothetical 21 BTC, I was trying to show real world use in a kind of hypothetical but realistic kind of way too.. . and so yeah, I had not updated the amounts spent for December, January and February yet... but it would show ongoing spending within the boundaries of the monthly authorizations. and there could be some months in which some advance sales end up happening, too... but I am thinking tentatively to wait until either within the 200%-400% range (BTC spot price above 200-WMA) with 11 months of advance sales or the 400% to 650% range with 23 months in advance.... but yeah, maybe I am still not sure about the advance month sales and then may be thinking if I do the advance sales then I would try to wait until the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range.

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there, and I cannot remember if there might have been something else.. or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.