The goal is to hold for a long period and keep accumulating more so i wasn’t implying that people reap rewards by selling their bitcoins but rather seeing the price of bitcoin going higher in such way is also a reward for investors as it will help motivate us more to keep hodling to witness a even higher price. Selling will only make you to lose out and buying back might be a little difficult as the price keeps rising because bitcoin is a continuous train that is moving for a long time so selling is not an option.
Fair enough that you are not planning to sell, yet I also believe that there is another problem in which newbie bitcoin accumulators might become discouraged or caught in a dilemma regarding BTC prices continuing to go up... so yeah, sure there might be excitement that the accumulation that had already been accomplished goes up in value (price), yet still the going up in price ongoingly causing dilemmas regarding continuing to buy BTC
(as you seemed to have had suggested).. which may well be the better way of dealing with the situation in order to stay in a proper ongoing BTC accumulation mindset (re-enforced by practice).. .
I think this dilemma that you are describing here goes hand in hand with a post you made elsewhere about the units that people should have in their minds when accumulating bitcoin. If some average Joe sets 1 whole BTC as the goal, it might rather make him demotivated to ever beging accumulating because the price shot up by so much and it is not unlikely to go higher. I brought up 1 mBTC and then you added that even thinking in satoshis can be a good strategy and I agree. But it still takes someone to value the satoshis in the form of an investment with increased future potential value. Otherwise they could step into the dilemma that is the other way around and they feel for the moment, not seeing the value in accumulating satoshis. At the end of the day someone should think about whether or not they believe bitcoin is undervalued. But you can see that there are still some trolls to take the same line for a decade now and how bitcoin will never reach this or that. But the numbers speak so much for themselves and some of the politicans do too by now that it is still surprising how skeptical many people are.
It's not seldom that I hear sentences like "well, I can touch gold, but I can't bitcoin". If they are still in that stadium of how they understand value, it is quite hard to see them gather the least amount of information and knowledge or understanding of the matter, such that they would convince themselves of getting started. And this is not even about the concept of intangible value. Bitcoin's value is very real as soon as you get confronted with its various use cases. If the US government or some of the senators speak about "Strategic Reserve" in terms of bitcoin, then what else is there to understand even for someone who is mostly clueless about the technical matters of bitcoin?
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OK, but if we put price-points and technical analysis aside and consider Trump's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve/possibly starting other nation-states to do the same, Chad Saylor's bids/also possibly starting other companies to do the same, and BlackRock/other institutions' spot ETF bids during the current cycle - Shouldn't THAT be enough to make us believe that "never going below $100,000 again" is very possible? Or it's not enough?
Sure.. maybe I remain a bit conservative in my downity expectations, yet personally, I try not to put too much weight on various kinds of macro-factors that may or may not end up playing out and/or getting off-set by other factors, especially when it comes to financial and/or psychological preparations for various possible futures that might happen.
Putting too much weight on various possibilities could lead to behaviors that prematurely eliminate certain extreme outcomes and then leave us ill-prepared to deal with them when they end up playing out.
Sure we don't want to put 20% resources into less than 1% scenarios, yet we should also not want to become overly reliant upon our having sufficient enough information to accurate calculate the probabilities of extreme scenarios.
We likely already appreciate that since bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet to the upside, we do not have to put everything (or close to everything) into such upside scenarios to still be able to stupendously profit if such upside scenario ends up playing out, and in fact we are better of to continue to keep some downside insurance, even if we are starting to come to highly confident beliefs about certain upside scenarios.
I think that a lot of us have come to understand that one of the things that we would like to achieve down the road, let's say 20 years from now, is to still be in the game, rather than having had engaged in some kind of behavior that had the potential to make us rich as fuck, but ended up recking us to such an extent that we had to start over or nearly have to start over.
A certain value comes from preservation of wealth and also preservation of self.
Of course you are free to do what you want, and sometimes it can be worth the risk to bet a bit heavier than usual, yet sometimes it is also greedy to bet more than prudent levels, and sure we are not going to come to the same answers on the particulars, but there still are some scenarios that are a bit extreme, such as when we prematurely conclude that something is not going to happen and we end up overly betting on the upside and under preparing for the downside, and we could have still ended up being rich as fuck with a prudent approach, so why did we need to try to become rich as fuck plus 5, when that extra 5 was totally not even necessary in the first place, except maybe it was just our ego playing or part of some deeper desires to gamble.
Wind_FURY has a good point here and I agree. If that were to happen that the US government announces and passes a law or a set in stone plan for the acquisition of a strategic reserve in the amount of 800K additional BTC, I think that would create some serious FOMO across so many parties. Everyone would know that the US government is now having skin in the game and thereby creating incentives for themselves to not harm bitcoin in any way, but instead create a promising environment for bitcoin to thrive. Companies like Tesla would probably stock up, pension funds and investment funds would stock up because they now have the real player on board who is responsible for bitcoin legitimization and for the laws that either make it more valuable or more constraint.
I agree that macro factors shouldn't be overvalued or lead to ill-considered decisions on the individual level, like selling your house and putting everything in one basket. But I think it can't be denied that the voices pro bitcoin became louder over time and they came from higher and higher levels in the global power hierarchy. I don't think it would be wise to give too little meaning to it, and neither would it be wise to give too much meaning to it. But it sounds more serious than ever and these intense crackdown threats from many countries in the world have become more and more quiet.