Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 266. (Read 123873 times)

You must not have consistent income before applying the DCA method. Even if you are contractor whose income comes only when you have a contract, @JayJuanGee explained in an earlier comment that such a person can still make projections with the bulk money received upon execution of a contract and should have already figured out, as an estimate, when he will likely have another contract or cashflow. For instance, if he receives lump sum of $10k upon completion of a contract and it happens that from past data he is sure able to secure contract 3-4 times per annum, he can set aside $3k from this amount for 3-4 months DCA, that is if the balance of $5k is able to meet his needs for the time period and also remain like $2k for emergency spending. The point is that DCA must not be applied by individuals with regular incomes, even those with incomes that are not regular can apply the DCA method.

 Mate to an extend your explanations are some worth contradictory, It is very obvious that you are generalizing the concepts of this thread in terms of Bitcoin and the other coins whereas the thread has been discussing much about Bitcoin long term investment plan and the various strategies for accumulation and hodling for  about 5 to 10 years or more in other to have the compounded value of your investment, while your explanations are much on traders whose intention are mainly for profits maximization within the shortest time frame. However is a Bitcoin long term investment thread and not any form of trading and also making the use of the word cryptocurrency could possibly mean you are talking about other coins, if you want to say Bitcoin just say Bitcoin because there is no way some one can understand that you are talking about Bitcoin because there are other coins in the market so you need to be specific.

The bitcoin pattern will be changed based on the halves most of the time,many people holding from pump after the Corona time for the new halves at the 2024.With no surprise we get the new all time high of 73k in the bitcoin price which is more then the value of 68k which was the highest of all the time.This bull run was not end and still we have a hope in the bitcoin price for the consecutive pump in the 2024.So holding was the key to the good profit in the crypto currency trading.


This was the good one,So the trader should not worry about the minor fall,many had brought in the 68k pump.After that we had faced huge fall in the bitcoin market.Many a while the price doesn’t cross above the value of 32-34k.But many had the gift of the value with the double digits profit of the holding on the correction time.Still many trader claiming the bitcoin will reach the value of 100k as the next target in the 2024.It was essential for the trader to make some profit by just holding on the bull market of the cryptocurrency market.Don’t sell your assets at the panic of losing the high prices,the bull run not end yet.

You just have to start from somewhere and have this determination to do something for yourself by starting now to invest in bitcoin. The bitcoin halving is just few days away and the truth is only people who started their investments after the last circle will benefit more from this bitcoin circle. So your target now should be focused on the next circle that will happen in the next 4 years ahead. It might look like a difficult task but you should do it as if your future depends on it. Just start with your DCA weekly or monthly as you deem fit. Every successful men and women out there started from somewhere and if you read their stories you will understand that it wasn't easy from the beginning. So just organize yourself and start today, don't wait till tomorrow.

There are people just got hype up on the idea and think about its good to put everything they have because they are sure about the result on what they are doing. But they forget to settle up their prioritize especially their needs that's why if everything fucks up all their plans to hodl collapsed and worst they sell their bitcoins at losing price. That's why its really better to buy according to their capacity and they make sure that the amount they spent is the amount they can afford to save so that they don't struggle on their daily expenses and can think about more clear since they in control on their investment made.

Actually I total all my profit made every 15 days on my side hustle and I separate it for 50% for investment, 25% for my emergency funds and the other 25% is for my travel expenses. My earnings for my main job is for my bills,daily needs and insurance. For doing this consistently for years I can say I live a comfortable life and away from stress and debts.

I know that I have some mistakes and it is very difficult for me to correct them and reorganizing the investment plan is a big challenge for me now. But still I have to do it because I think about my future because if I don't plan and invest in the future I will surely suffer and will not be able to profit very well. I don't know how far I will succeed in my efforts but I will try to eventually accumulate some bitcoins and it will last for 4 to 10 years.

generally, the predominant reason why most people starch up Bitcoin for the long term is basically to secure their future and ensure that whatever is coming in through the work they are currently doing isn't spent all out for basic short termed needs and that a portion of it is invested into an asset like Bitcoin which will serve to solve a set out future plan or will stand to cover up for whatever unexpected event that will spring out in the future. And so it's important we know that considering one or two years as a long term investment is kind of a short sighted decision and taking up your investment for that short period of time would almost mean you will still spend it for short termed issues which leaves you with nothing to hold on to in the future.

Honestly, Apart from a four years halving pattern that might technically make a four years investment reasonable to some extent, I believe good and profitable investment should last up to the range of  eight years and above and this is never to suggest that those that are working with a four to eight years plan based on thier budget and financial capabilities can't be in good profit but you know, making long term investment isn't all about taking out little profit whenever  you're on the positive side, you've got to be disciplined and futuristic enough to accumulate more within a long period of time which will increase the quantity of your starch at the end of your accumulation and go on to meeting your set out plan.

Before even taking out your investment when you're in profit, it's also good to have a plan on ground regarding what your profit is going into or else you risk wasting your profit into something that's unprofitable and this is one obvious reason why you would need to set out a defined accumulation strategy which will be either the DCA strategy, the lump sum or a combination of the both and also make plan on what you're using your profit for at the end of your investment circle.

Although this has been discussed severally, that the fundamental or basic knowledge is much required in long term Bitcoin investment, unlike the short term investment or trading. However, the long term Bitcoin investment doesn't require much of the technicality in analysing charts using indicators to speculate price movements. It is the Bitcoin traders that mostly focused on Bitcoin price forecasting because their aim is only to maximize profits at the shortest time frame and that is not the concepts of this thread whereas the thread prioritize long term Bitcoin investment plan of about 5 to 10 years or more of having the compounded value of your investment.

Yeah, sometimes we might be confusing the definitions, and it seems that bitcoin has a bit of a pattern that justifies the consideration of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle may well end up getting broken at some point... however, if we already have a pattern of a 4 -year cycle, then, it is likely helpful to at least attempt to recognize that such pattern has so far tended to play around the timeline of the halvening.

So yeah we do not necessarily need to plan out 10 years or more in order to be considered long term, but if we really consider what people might want to do with their investment into bitcoin, then we likely can see that they are wanting to make their lives better in the future.... so yeah.. I suppose that there could be such things as long term, medium term and short term trades, and so any one getting involved in bitcoin for less than 4 years could be trading within various periods of time, yet it would be difficult to classify them as an investor in bitcoin if they have a timeline that is shorter than 4 years.


I thought that I had already sufficiently explained this.

If you are valuating your BTC stash from the bottom price, then you are going to have had established a cushion in terms of how many BTC that you need, and in BTC historically, the bottom price has continued to move up more than 20% on an annualized basis, and if you are ONLY withdrawing 4%, then your BTC stash is likely going to continue to grow, especially because you continue to measure it in terms of the bottom price, so once you get started, you may well need to increase your withdrawal rate to 10% or even higher.  Of course, if you continue to monitor BTC's bottom price and it continues to move up faster than your withdrawal rate, then you continue to have a cushion and your BTC holdings continues to grow.

Let's say for example you felt that you needed $3.3k per month to live off of your BTC (which would be a $1million stash size at 4% withdrawal rate), and if you look at the current BTC bottom price, you will see that it is currently right around $32,200, which means that you need 31.1 BTC to reach that level, but if you were employing a 10% withdrawal rate, then you would need ONLY right around 12.4 BTC to achieve that same results in terms of being able to withdraw at least $3,300 per month..

You can look at the sustainable withdrawal tool, and plug in your own numbers to see how your own numbers play out (or your aspirational numbers) and to play with the tool.. and it seems that part of the trick is getting your BTC stash to a high enough level that you start to feel comfortable with starting to withdraw and including that measuring  from the bottom value will likely allow you to not over do it..  but you still have to have enough coins and to not overly withdrawal, especially if you are still nervous about whether you have enough when you start to withdraw and to live off of them as compared to when you might have had been still in your BTC portfolio building stages. 


The dollar has been decreasing its purchasing power, but not bitcoin, especially if you are using the 200-WMA as your way to valuate your BTC stash... so yeah, maybe you would not want to start to withdraw too soon if you are measuring that you need $3,300 per month in dollars, but that you expect that you might need $6,600 in the next few years, so then you might want to have a sufficient quantity of BTC as your extra cushion in order to account for the dollar value not going as far as it had gone previously..


That is why you measure from the bottom rather than the top, and also the tool reduces the withdrawal authorization amount if the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA.. yet even with a back testing of the tool, really aggressive withdrawal rates that go even greater than the 6% to 10% rate that I suggest to be sustainable would still have had been sustainable, even given the up and down years... that is one of the amazing things about bitcoin so far in its history.. even though its spot price has been pretty volatile, but if you had been measuring from 200-WMA, then you would have had been able to have an adequate cushion.


If you are still building your BTC stash, then you might not even be ready to start withdrawing.. so it may well be way better to keep building until you have enough, and BTC allows much greater withdrawal rates than traditional 4 % patterns which are still pretty whimpy as compared with bitcoin's ongoing powerful performance.

And yeah, no matter what you do, you have to feel comfortable with your withdrawal rate and to make sure that you account for all your expenses, otherwise you are jumping ahead of yourself if you have only accumulated a few BTC but you are expecting a $3.3k monthly income that keeps up with inflation.. .. but if you have 12.4 BTC or more, you are likely in good shape to be withdrawing that quantity and even withdrawing at 6% to 10% per year.


You are the one who was falsely proclaiming that we were in a bear market during your accumulation of bitcoin, which surely is not true.. .so maybe it is just best that you stop looking at the price at all.. and don't over invest.. just buy regularly some amount that you can tolerate if you may lose or not, and then after you have been through more than a whole cycle, then reassess the situation at that time.

In other words, you seem to be spending a lot of time worrying which way the BTC price might go, but why should that matter?  Maybe you have a system and you have $400 per month that you could invest (which is $100 per week), so you invest 1/3 or that right away no matter what, and maybe the other 2/3 is used for making sure your finances are in order.. and then as you continue to study bitcoin then maybe you can change your amounts later on.. or if you are comfortable with 1/3 going to DCA right away, 1/3 building your emergency fund, and the other 1/3 to wait to buy on dips, if dips happen, and if they don't you just let that amount build up (which might be called your reserves).

In the end, you have to be comfortable with what you are doing, and if you are not comfortable, then maybe you are investing too much.  It could be that you are investing beyond your level of knowledge and/or your level of comfort... so you just have to take it slower.. until you might be comfortable to become more aggressive.

I frequently have asserted that we should all try to be as aggressive as we can be without overdoing it, and if you don't know some of the basic price dynamics in bitcoin, then you might need to make sure that you are not being more aggressive than the level of your knowledge and/or your comfort.

Everyone must invest according to his own size, and its good that we well know our numbers so that we can make better decisions regarding to the best kind of strategy to implement and how we can plan our investment journey with DCA.

everyone loves buying from the dip cause they accumulate more for cheaper price, but as an investor we must also be well prepared for both market trends and learn to keep on accumulating no matter what, with proper planning and building up our funds we can also grow to better take advantage of those bear season well when we have well built reserves or have found a way to increase or source of income.

I myself prefer to see my bitcoin journey as a normal life experience and I'm trying to build a character around it, making it a lifestyle to think in terms of building up emergency funds, keeping floats and also reserves, this way I feel I am getting ready for any opportunity  I could savour on and since we are in a bull trend having such good dips might not always come by, so when ever of if we have any I could also take advantage of them to.

hearing bitcoin investment the first that should scream in your mind is ( long-term investment). And long-term investment in bitcoin is not about having the mindset of just sitting around waiting for your investment to yield you good profit without any proper planning. We all know that with the basic knowledge of bitcoin one is good to start accumulating, though as one continue his accummulation he or she has to gather good knowledge on his accumulating journey in order to make some proper planning, like concerning his accummulation goal, having good sources, and how to manage his financial situation. Same time having a good emergency funds that would sustain he or she , and prevent one from tampering with their investment. If we lack such planning our accumulating may endup crashing down due to improper planning.

well I don't think there's any need for you to be afraid , don't forget that through DCAing we are buying at different price interval (when the price is high or low). And as you said we still we are still early in accumulating Bitcoin, so this not the time to be afraid but to accumulate. And if you thinking of the dip, you can keep some reserve funds (have kept mine already) so that you would be able to purchase the dip if it occurs.

This is what I have understood from your explanation, if the price of bitcoin is going up or generally gaining value even if they seem to be corrections and what seem to be temporal dips when the price drops for a certain period of time and begins to add back again, and if we are looking it from a longer time frame and we notice that the movement of the market is upwards then it us a bull market, and also the same for a bear market when the price is generally moving downwards.

I think why I have always misunderstood this concept was because I was looking at it from a shorter time frame and getting confused due to temporal price correction and I was also thinking or assumed that when ever a dip occurs it was a bear market. I never knew that the market doesn't switch from bull to bear from time to time but rather stays on one trend for a longer time frame.

But I remember that it's good to have senerios or possibilities in short time frame and also longer time frames, where i could plan a set of different possible outcomes that could happen and prepare ahead which I've always been doing for a while now, but before now my focus has been on short time Frames without making preparation for a longer time frame.


I just don't want to bother much about my average cost now even tho I'm quite afraid that I might be buying at the highest price points and its possible for the bear to set in any time soon, but I know neither of these is my business cause I'm still quite early in bitcoin and I know that maybe over the years it's possible I could balance out my average cost or maybe bring it down a little bit lower as long as I'm consistent in my buying.

All these situations of yours fascinate me, because only a proper planner can reach the destination. So risk and planning is the best strategy before investing in Bitcoin. I cannot grow my investment if I am not careful about how I will protect my investment for the long term. That is why the DCA approach is to enrich investments and increase wealth in a more long-term manner. You strategize in DCA and accumulate bitcoins keeping yourself calm.

I guess it is the 4% rule of investment you are talking about. Imagine your portfolio balance is not increasing due to price fluctuations and the market moving to the bottom how does this rule help you keep up? because you will be worried about decreasing purchasing power. And so something to keep in mind. A typical model is unable to show the significant additional sequence of returns risk that can be introduced by those problems that arise during a down market. I would prefer a 2% risk every year of my total investment. To me, this is safer than going higher for 4%. I am single and have no children so am ok with that.

No investor pray for emergency expenditure but it's something that is bound to happen because we don't have total control over overything on earth. However, everything is all about proper planning as they said that a man that fail to plan has planned to fail, proper planning will save you the stress of unecessary spending which may directly or indirectly affect our investment.

Of course like I already mentioned on my previous post there is an advantage of buying when the Bitcoin price is lower but we shouldn't draw all our focus or target on buying Bitcoin only when the price is going down because the probability of Bitcoin dipping the way they expected may not be certain, however if they most go for dip it will surely depend on there investment portfolio if they wish to still utilize the opportunity if Bitcoin is going down, perhaps they could channel some of there funds on Lump sum while they continue investing on the normal price of the Bitcoin.

However in terms of short-term investment I agree with you that most people normally get confused or couldn't distinguish between short-term and long term investment because one of the things I realized is that most people or rather investors feels that holding Bitcoin for six or seven months is a long term holding without knowing that they are only doing there normally trading because like you said a long term holding could be refer as holding Bitcoin for ten or more than ten years.

In traditional investments, there is generally a recommendation that you should be able to withdraw 4% per year from your investment portfolio and to be able to withdraw at that rate forever, so long as, on average, your investment is growing in value at least 4% per year.

So if you have $1 million, then a withdrawal rate of 4% per year would yield you $40k of passive income for the year or $3,333 per month.

BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.

From my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period).  So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments.  You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.

Of course, with my sustainable withdrawal tool ^{(powered by bitmover)}, you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time.   I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in this post.

Thanks for clarifying that. I am from group of people who can invest around $200 to 250 weekly into Bitcoin. In fact I am doing that for last one year and so far results are very much satisfactory. Whatever you have just invest in Bitcoin for long term.    


The best thing is if you keep investing in Bitcoin then with time your investment is guaranteed to increase. This is what we have seen so far with the help of historical data. What differs in Bitcoin is that you don't need any sort of documents to open your account for Bitcoin investment like we need in equity trading.  


That would be worst case scenario that price keep on increasing and is very much unlikely to happen. In Bitcoin journey, from here to next 10 to 15 years we will defiantly see ups and downs. So if someone is investing $250 per week then its very much likely that he will be able to get good amount of BTC in coming 10 to 15 years provided he keep investing constantly. With time he will get to know that when to be more aggressive in accumulation.
It's good to have company of 200-WMA as we move with investing in Bitcoin. For last 6 months price of Bitcoin is above 200 WMA, so there may be times where you are standing below 200 WMA and that's the point where your nerves are tested. Those who can survive that test will defiantly have good ROI waiting ahead.


I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.

Achieving certain goals can indeed be done in various ways by everyone without sitting or remaining silent like market spectators. For those who have bought Bitcoin on Dip, of course they will always monitor it and can also carry out DCA with their own targets on a weekly or monthly basis. Because for those who have a consistent income every month, it will also be difficult to achieve their goals if they don't try to move their money into investments or anything that can double their income in their own lives.

I already explained and probably overly explained, and so you need to think in longer timelines.  In essence, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, and I give little shits about what others say about the various corrections along the way.  The market does not change back and forth.

on the other hand, we could fairly assess that we might not have had realized that we were in a bull market until either mid-2023 or even as late as October 2023, but surely at some point, we would have or should have realized that we were in a bull market rather than a bear market since November 2022.

Bull market is that the price is generally trending up (even if there may well be short or long periods of corrections in between).

In other words, you cannot be flipping back and forth, and clearly even if we were in a correction in December 2023.. who gives any shits.. we were still obviously already in a bull market, even if there was a correction.

People frequently get confused by the short-term and/or overly obsess about the short term.. and especially if you already stated that you are planning to invest for a whole cycle, then there seems to be almost no reason to be getting worked up about various short term moves. 

Of course, any of us still wants to try to minimize his cost per BTC, but there is ONLY so much that we are able to do about those kinds of things, especially if we are new to bitcoin and still building our stash...

As I already mentioned, if you have been buying since December (or even in the past 16 months) the value of your holdings are generally in profits, and I am not even proclaiming that you are not faced with any dilemma, since when BTC is in this kind of bull market, there may well be a lot of advantages to front loading and investing as much as possible earlier rather than stringing out purchases, but at the same time, if you are new to bitcoin (and/or investing), you may well not have much if any choice based on how much (or the lack) that you have in your own finances to be able to dedicate to BTC purchases.

In other words, there are some advantages, towards buying when the BTC price is going down rather than when it is going up.. but you cannot really affect those kinds of situations.  You have to play with the cards that you have, and figure out what you are going to do and how you are going to deal with the current dynamics as well as future dynamics that are not really known very well until after they happen.


There is no such thing as invest by HOLD.

Before you can HOLD, you have to buy first, which entails thinking about the various ways to buy. DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.


No need to say more then.  I already stated how I consider you to have had either misunderstood or misframed the context.  I still believe that you misframed what I said, even if you might have had understood what I had been attempting to communicate.


Well.. too bad about chapter 1, and the reality of the matter is that the dollar and BTC is different.  So yeah, you may well have your local currency, so you may well feel some value in holding dollars, but the dollar is still inferior to holding actual BTC, but you still have to be able to hold it .. and of course, I frequently recommend a timeline of 4-10 years or longer in order to be an investor, otherwise you are merely trading in BTC rather than investing, which is your choice.

Regarding your Chapter 2.  If you do not have any disposable income, then you are not in a position to buy BTC, so that is too bad for you if you know about the value of BTC but you are still not able to set aside some of your value to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer - and your family's life may well be in a better state down the road if you were to be able to follow some kind of an investment plan rather than spending everything that you earn  as soon as you get it.. even if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week or so.. it is better than nothing.. but again your decision in regards to your own situation in regards if you are actually able to accomplish any such investment based on your own circumstances.. and I would think that if you are a member of this forum (who is actively participating) then at least you have some knowledge about bitcoin.. which puts you at some advantages over members of the regular population.


It seems that I agree with what you are saying letteredhub.. especially if you are suggesting to buy at various points of the dip rather than trying to overly strategize and then miss out on buying the dip... so yeah if you are in buying mode, then many times you are going to end up buying the dip and it will keep dipping and maybe at some point you will also end up running out of money to keep buying the dip, so then at that point you might have to HODL through the situation until maybe you have more money come in.

I will say that your part about being in profits seems fairly irrelevant..  Sure it is comfortable to be in more profits, but in the end, it may not make big differences whether you are buying BTC on a regular basis or if you have had gotten lucky to buy some extra dips, because if we are investing for the long run we will assume to be in profits at some point, and then the level of profits begin to build and compound upon themselves, and that is where the real value comes rather than a simple assessment of happening to be in profits.. being in profits is sort of assumed (though not guaranteed) after 4-10 years or more but then it just becomes a matter of how much any of us might have had accumulated when we might start to draw from our BTC.. while potentially still allowing the BTC to compound value.. and that will give us more long term options - including our abilities to more freely spend our other monies prior to spending our bitcoin, and sometimes if we have been in bitcoin a while we might not even need to spend much of any of our bitcoin because we may well have built up other sources of income in which we can spend from those other sources of income prior to spending from our bitcoin stash...

and another thing is if we have plenty of bitcoin then we might not even be concerned about shaving some off here and there along the way.. so we don't really have any urgent needs to sell a lot of our bitcoin at once, but we still are not bothered to sell some of it at whatever the going price might happen to be at the time that we shave off some of it.


It will likely tend to take at least a whole cycle.. and it might take 2-3 cycles before some of the ones who are starting now will be able to be in a comfortable position to change their strategy.

Don't get me wrong, even after a whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin, there might be a sense of empowerment or even a sense that the ways of accumulating bitcoin might be able to be changed, but the focus still may well continue to be to continue to accumulate bitcoin, even if there might be some ways in which the already accumulated quantity of bitcoin might inform some tweaking in the BTC accumulation approach.

If someone is new to bitcoin, but is already coming to bitcoin with a lot of fiat resources, then that kind of a person might be able to more clearly stop accumulating BTC, even after just a few years of accumulating, even less than a full cycle. 

See my 15 hypo examples that show various possibilities that vary based on investment timelines.