Grayscale Bitcoin "Trust" is still holding, NOT HODLing, more than 500,000 Bitcoin and they have been selling more aggressively since January 12.
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50I believe if the selling contintues, and the market panics, that might cause a pre-halving DIP, no?
As plebs what do we do in this kind of situation? I can't tell you what to do with your money, but if you ask me it's = Buy the DIP, and HODL.
You are not offering specifics.
We already have a dip. So are you saying buy now or wait for more dip?
From my understanding, he is suggesting that there will be more dips before the halving as Grayscale continues to sell their Bitcoin. I understand his points because if they continue to sell, it's possible they may trigger some form of panic across board and weak hands will start dumping massively.
I'm suspecting that this may be classical market manipulation that is being done now to collect Bitcoin from the hands of weak hands and ordinary people to the institutions. For the ETF not to cause a new ATH, it is looking like the big players are out to control the price to align with what they want.
I don't really know but I honestly don't know the kind of beliefs I have for Bitcoin to the extent that when it's price is reducing I still don't panic because as you said people will want to sell because they think that they are losing but not knowing that it is another good opportunity for them to buy more.
Moreover it is true that some social media platforms are really affecting crypto newbies that they have fears to sell their Bitcoin, looking at it, you don't have to blame some influencers because they want views and want to be trending, so they can cime up any time and say what they think will help them get views but not knowing they are leading sime crypto newbies astray.
We have to put blamed to the investors who are very lazy to make their own research but put their trust in people talks. Bitcoin is free but one must buy it before he can have it.
Of course you have your own issues, Su-asa, in terms of blowing too much of your wadd at $45k or whatever it was, and so I am glad that you are staying positive about the matter, even though it would be a lot better to invest a decent sum, even if you invest at a bit of a higher price point, but to be able to continue to invest decent quantities if the BTC price moves against you... and sure at the same time, if there is a 20% or 30% price dip after someone buys, then it might seem that it can take a long time to get back up to those earlier prices, and surely psychologically and financially we will feel better if we are able to continue to buy without putting our finances (or our psychology) at too much risk because we need to maintain an emergency fund too.
How do we learn from our mistakes? Many of us make them. Sometimes there can be ways to either cut expenses or to increase income in short periods of time, but sometimes it can take a while to identify and to build opportunities to increase income, for example.
Whatever be the case, I'm not bordered because lower prices favour me more because I'm still at the accumulation stage in my Bitcoin journey. So it will enable me to collect more Bitcoin even at lower prices.
There are always going to be forces (traders/whales/or whoever) that try to take advantage of momentum as much as they are able to accomplish such, and so if the momentum starts to go down, they try to get the price down as far as they can get it and to keep it there for as long as they are able to accomplish keeping it down, but the mere fact that they have such objectives and that they are able to shake out many weak hands, they are ONLY able to keep down the price as long as they are able to do it, and sometimes they will also run out of ammunition and not have choices, except to let the BTC price come up.
You could look at the charts in 2015 and 2016 and see similar kinds of behaviors.. the BTC price went up from $250 to $500 in a kind of explosive way at the end of 2015, and then it got stuck in the lower $400s for almost 6 months before breaking above $500 again and mostly staying there even though surely there was a lot of talk of BTC prices going back below $500 and even some close calls, but the BTC price never returned below $500 - even though there were likely a lot bearwhales who lost in those days and during that process.
And we can probably also go over the history of $3k too.. in terms of trying to get below $3k. .but sooner or later that battle was lost, and likely anyone buying below $7k during those times between late 2017 and late 2020 were quite advantaged and the battle for sub $3k was likely lost even though people still mention it from time to time.
probably $10k is going to be another one of those talking points, and we are in the midst of perhaps some other talking points, but we are not going to know them so much while we are going through them, and it later may well become more clear about what the talking points were and when the price no longer was capable of going below some of those price points that people discuss.. and some of this also relate to the 200-week moving average too, which usually is not breached, but ended up getting breached for right around 16 months between June 2022 and October 2023... but the whole time the 200-week moving average still moved up from lower $20ks to upper $20ks and now is a bit higher than $30k, so sometimes folks are going to be wishing for lower prices that do not end up happening, but in the meantime the steady bitcoin stacker is likely less phased, even though there still can be some stress and uncertainties and maybe it takes 8 years or more to really see the advantages that came from continuing to stack sats during such turbulent times.
And, yeah BIG talk about how horrible that it is that GBTC is selling so much coin, and maybe even perhaps some additional sales and even some holding off on buys by some of the whales wanting to capitalize on sales happening and without the corresponding buys, but sometimes those situations end up exploding in their face because some entities come in and start to buys and those who were waiting end up losing out and/or having to buy at higher prices because they were too greedy.. and so none of us should be playing those kinds of games, especially if we have already identified BTC as s good buy and this likely is a continuation of the opportunties for normies to continue to front run the BIGGER players including institutional investors.
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One thing is certain if you don't buy the dip you will be cheering up those who utilize the opportunity and bought the dip. The wise thing to do at this point is to keep accumulating as you can while others are still trying to figure out why the price is falling. Before they can figure out why, you have already taken action and benefited from it. Of what use will the reason why the market pricing of bitcoin do for you, while you didn't didn't benefit from it. Let's not be among those that are finding reasons why the market is falling, but let's be among those that are actively adding to our portfolio, that's the main deal.
Your overall conclusions seem to be correct Justbillywitt, even though you came at the problem from a weird angle.
The point is that there are all kinds of reasons that the BTC price might move in one direction or another and there are all kinds of talking points and distractions, and we should be figuring out our plan to buy and not thinking so much about the various explanations that may not really be very helpful in our efforts to just focus on actions and maintaining some kind of a reasonable balance in our own ongoing persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive BTC accumulation.
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Lump sum are an important part for investors who have large funds in this decline. The opportunity came when no one predicted, I mean everyone predicted that after the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved the price of Bitcoin would rise drastically but in this case large companies like Grayscale took advantage of the investments they had made in previous years.
What else is new? You cannot expect the BTC price to move in the direction that everyone believes it is going to move otherwise everyone would be rich, which is not the case. Some people end up fucking up, and in bitcoin's history those accumulating BTC through these kinds of periods have tended to do quite well, even if sometimes it might take a while for the payoff to show.
They took advantage by selling a small amount of their BTC holdings because we can see the transaction from their wallet to Coinbase.
What are you talking about? Grayscale has to sell BTC when their clients sell GBTC. There collateral has to match, and yeah sure there could be some of that GBTC that is owned by Grayscale that is being sold, but I would not automatically presume that Grayscale is selling their own GBTC.. but who knows and who cares.. it is a lot of noise, because in the whole scheme of things, there are more reasons to buy rather than sell, and so anyone who is retarded enough to be selling or worried about this kind of correction or failing to buy BTC during times like this are likely deserving to have fun staying poor.
There are no reasons for any of us who own bitcoin or who are accumulating bitcoin to get worried about these kinds of matters and either we are buying more BTC or we are just holding through the situation. Maybe we are doing a combination of strategies? Buy some BTC at various price points as the price dips, maybe DCA, and if we don't have any more money we cannot necessarily buy until our next income comes in... so a lot of times the preparations need to be done in advance so that we are prepared for matters like this, and if we believe that our DCA is not enough because our BTC holdings are losing way more value than the amount that we are able to buy, then we are distracted...and there is ONLY so much any of us can do in terms of how much money we have available to buy the dip.. and if we get tempted into selling a bit so we can buy back cheaper, then we really lost the plot and we are likely engaging in the opposite kind of behavior as we should during times like this.. because maybe the BTC price will dip more and maybe it won't.. if it does dip more either we have money to buy more or we don't, but we gotta be careful in terms of presuming that the BTC price is going to drop more merely because a bunch of people are proclaiming such..
Apart from that, a wise investment strategy in the situation to find the lowest price is of course to place orders in stages, be it $35k, $36k, because the market situation is not yet stable enough because grayscale btc outflows are still occurring.
Those are good ideas.. and maybe those various buy orders (on the way down) get filled, and maybe they don't.
Yes, even if you are interested in buying instantly at the current price, of course that would be better because the price of Bitcoin was corrected this week.
That's also a good idea.
You started out with some seemingly dumb ideas (referring to getting distracted by Grayscale, blah, blah, blah - and maybe just trying to stir the pot), but getting into much better ideas.
Moreover, the halving is only 69 days away, so whatever the best conclusion, don't delay in buying Bitcoin.
Maybe I am quibbling a bit, but most of the halvening estimate sites that I see are in the 80 days range.. so between 72 days and 87 days (as I type this post), so the 69 days seem to be presuming a lot of hashpower causing blocktimes to be way shorter.
Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved, but I haven't seen any big pump and that's why I'm sure that this downturn cannot be considered normal because if the market turns green I think there will be big pump in the future. So buy in lump sum or DCA and important hold your BTC holdings for a long period of time.
Of course the going active of the various BTC spot ETFs (already just over 2 weeks ago) should contribute to ongoing upward BTC price pressures.
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So however your strategy of Lump suming is good but I don't like the idea of setting your buying points at the price of $35k to $36k because I doubt if the Bitcoin price will be able to drop that low because if it was going to do so it would have done it earlier before now and however considering how Bitcoin price is moving is actually on a ranging zone or rather on a consolidation zone were as most people are seeing it that the price is gonna drop more but do not be surprised that the price will peak when people did not expect it, but is good to be ready for any outcome.
You seem to contradict yourself here.
Be ready for any outcome, but you don't believe BTC prices might go to $35k or $36k so don't bother preparing for that possibility since it is not going to happen.
Is that what you are saying?
I surely don't cheer for down, you should not be ruling out various down price possibilities based on mere feelings. and your other seemingly inadequate reasons.
It could end up being correct that our current bottom of $38,505 is as low as we are going to experience for this particular correction, but I doubt that the odds of it being the bottom are greater than 50/50.. .and as far as $35k or $36k.. it is quite possible that we have less than 50/50 odds but I doubt that you could reasonably proclaim that they are less than 30% ..and I am not even claiming to be any kind of odds expert, but I know that the BTC price will sometimes go to unexpected places and it will end up staying there for longer than expected, too... and those kinds of things happen in either price direction.
nothing feels better than buying the dip 😋.
I have never really felt that great about buying dips, even though I know that they happen, and I have been buying dips since I started in bitcoin... maybe the first few buys of the dip feel kind of good because maybe there will be a reversal, but when it keeps dipping and there is no reversal and dips and dips and dips, those are not necessarily good feelings until they have recovered and so long as I bought on the way down, it later feels good... but it does not feel so good while happening.. especially once you have accumulated a decent amount of BTC.
On the other hand, if you hardly have any BTC, then of course you don't really have anything to lose when the BTC price dips.. so then you feel pretty good about it.
Let's say that you were new to bitcoin in early 2022, and you were buying dips starting from $45k and through the year the BTC price kept dipping and dipping and dipping, and maybe by mid-2023, you had gotten your average BTC price down to around to the upper $20ks, and maybe you have $10k invested (that would be around $100 per week). and maybe you got up to close to 0.33 BTC from your investment so maybe you don't even feel good about the BTC price dips until after October 2023, when the BTC price finally got into the $30ks and you started to feel in profits. but still you might not even feel good about this particular dip from $49k to $38,505 even though the BTC price has not dipped back to your being unprofitable, but you continue to buy and you continue to plow away at building your BTC stash.
