Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 325. (Read 137493 times)

Of course like I already mentioned on my previous post there is an advantage of buying when the Bitcoin price is lower but we shouldn't draw all our focus or target on buying Bitcoin only when the price is going down because the probability of Bitcoin dipping the way they expected may not be certain, however if they most go for dip it will surely depend on there investment portfolio if they wish to still utilize the opportunity if Bitcoin is going down, perhaps they could channel some of there funds on Lump sum while they continue investing on the normal price of the Bitcoin.

However in terms of short-term investment I agree with you that most people normally get confused or couldn't distinguish between short-term and long term investment because one of the things I realized is that most people or rather investors feels that holding Bitcoin for six or seven months is a long term holding without knowing that they are only doing there normally trading because like you said a long term holding could be refer as holding Bitcoin for ten or more than ten years.

In traditional investments, there is generally a recommendation that you should be able to withdraw 4% per year from your investment portfolio and to be able to withdraw at that rate forever, so long as, on average, your investment is growing in value at least 4% per year.

So if you have $1 million, then a withdrawal rate of 4% per year would yield you $40k of passive income for the year or $3,333 per month.

BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.

From my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period).  So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments.  You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.

Of course, with my sustainable withdrawal tool ^{(powered by bitmover)}, you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time.   I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in this post.

Thanks for clarifying that. I am from group of people who can invest around $200 to 250 weekly into Bitcoin. In fact I am doing that for last one year and so far results are very much satisfactory. Whatever you have just invest in Bitcoin for long term.    


The best thing is if you keep investing in Bitcoin then with time your investment is guaranteed to increase. This is what we have seen so far with the help of historical data. What differs in Bitcoin is that you don't need any sort of documents to open your account for Bitcoin investment like we need in equity trading.  


That would be worst case scenario that price keep on increasing and is very much unlikely to happen. In Bitcoin journey, from here to next 10 to 15 years we will defiantly see ups and downs. So if someone is investing $250 per week then its very much likely that he will be able to get good amount of BTC in coming 10 to 15 years provided he keep investing constantly. With time he will get to know that when to be more aggressive in accumulation.
It's good to have company of 200-WMA as we move with investing in Bitcoin. For last 6 months price of Bitcoin is above 200 WMA, so there may be times where you are standing below 200 WMA and that's the point where your nerves are tested. Those who can survive that test will defiantly have good ROI waiting ahead.


I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.

Achieving certain goals can indeed be done in various ways by everyone without sitting or remaining silent like market spectators. For those who have bought Bitcoin on Dip, of course they will always monitor it and can also carry out DCA with their own targets on a weekly or monthly basis. Because for those who have a consistent income every month, it will also be difficult to achieve their goals if they don't try to move their money into investments or anything that can double their income in their own lives.

I already explained and probably overly explained, and so you need to think in longer timelines.  In essence, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, and I give little shits about what others say about the various corrections along the way.  The market does not change back and forth.

on the other hand, we could fairly assess that we might not have had realized that we were in a bull market until either mid-2023 or even as late as October 2023, but surely at some point, we would have or should have realized that we were in a bull market rather than a bear market since November 2022.

Bull market is that the price is generally trending up (even if there may well be short or long periods of corrections in between).

In other words, you cannot be flipping back and forth, and clearly even if we were in a correction in December 2023.. who gives any shits.. we were still obviously already in a bull market, even if there was a correction.

People frequently get confused by the short-term and/or overly obsess about the short term.. and especially if you already stated that you are planning to invest for a whole cycle, then there seems to be almost no reason to be getting worked up about various short term moves. 

Of course, any of us still wants to try to minimize his cost per BTC, but there is ONLY so much that we are able to do about those kinds of things, especially if we are new to bitcoin and still building our stash...

As I already mentioned, if you have been buying since December (or even in the past 16 months) the value of your holdings are generally in profits, and I am not even proclaiming that you are not faced with any dilemma, since when BTC is in this kind of bull market, there may well be a lot of advantages to front loading and investing as much as possible earlier rather than stringing out purchases, but at the same time, if you are new to bitcoin (and/or investing), you may well not have much if any choice based on how much (or the lack) that you have in your own finances to be able to dedicate to BTC purchases.

In other words, there are some advantages, towards buying when the BTC price is going down rather than when it is going up.. but you cannot really affect those kinds of situations.  You have to play with the cards that you have, and figure out what you are going to do and how you are going to deal with the current dynamics as well as future dynamics that are not really known very well until after they happen.


There is no such thing as invest by HOLD.

Before you can HOLD, you have to buy first, which entails thinking about the various ways to buy. DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.


No need to say more then.  I already stated how I consider you to have had either misunderstood or misframed the context.  I still believe that you misframed what I said, even if you might have had understood what I had been attempting to communicate.


Well.. too bad about chapter 1, and the reality of the matter is that the dollar and BTC is different.  So yeah, you may well have your local currency, so you may well feel some value in holding dollars, but the dollar is still inferior to holding actual BTC, but you still have to be able to hold it .. and of course, I frequently recommend a timeline of 4-10 years or longer in order to be an investor, otherwise you are merely trading in BTC rather than investing, which is your choice.

Regarding your Chapter 2.  If you do not have any disposable income, then you are not in a position to buy BTC, so that is too bad for you if you know about the value of BTC but you are still not able to set aside some of your value to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer - and your family's life may well be in a better state down the road if you were to be able to follow some kind of an investment plan rather than spending everything that you earn  as soon as you get it.. even if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week or so.. it is better than nothing.. but again your decision in regards to your own situation in regards if you are actually able to accomplish any such investment based on your own circumstances.. and I would think that if you are a member of this forum (who is actively participating) then at least you have some knowledge about bitcoin.. which puts you at some advantages over members of the regular population.


It seems that I agree with what you are saying letteredhub.. especially if you are suggesting to buy at various points of the dip rather than trying to overly strategize and then miss out on buying the dip... so yeah if you are in buying mode, then many times you are going to end up buying the dip and it will keep dipping and maybe at some point you will also end up running out of money to keep buying the dip, so then at that point you might have to HODL through the situation until maybe you have more money come in.

I will say that your part about being in profits seems fairly irrelevant..  Sure it is comfortable to be in more profits, but in the end, it may not make big differences whether you are buying BTC on a regular basis or if you have had gotten lucky to buy some extra dips, because if we are investing for the long run we will assume to be in profits at some point, and then the level of profits begin to build and compound upon themselves, and that is where the real value comes rather than a simple assessment of happening to be in profits.. being in profits is sort of assumed (though not guaranteed) after 4-10 years or more but then it just becomes a matter of how much any of us might have had accumulated when we might start to draw from our BTC.. while potentially still allowing the BTC to compound value.. and that will give us more long term options - including our abilities to more freely spend our other monies prior to spending our bitcoin, and sometimes if we have been in bitcoin a while we might not even need to spend much of any of our bitcoin because we may well have built up other sources of income in which we can spend from those other sources of income prior to spending from our bitcoin stash...

and another thing is if we have plenty of bitcoin then we might not even be concerned about shaving some off here and there along the way.. so we don't really have any urgent needs to sell a lot of our bitcoin at once, but we still are not bothered to sell some of it at whatever the going price might happen to be at the time that we shave off some of it.


It will likely tend to take at least a whole cycle.. and it might take 2-3 cycles before some of the ones who are starting now will be able to be in a comfortable position to change their strategy.

Don't get me wrong, even after a whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin, there might be a sense of empowerment or even a sense that the ways of accumulating bitcoin might be able to be changed, but the focus still may well continue to be to continue to accumulate bitcoin, even if there might be some ways in which the already accumulated quantity of bitcoin might inform some tweaking in the BTC accumulation approach.

If someone is new to bitcoin, but is already coming to bitcoin with a lot of fiat resources, then that kind of a person might be able to more clearly stop accumulating BTC, even after just a few years of accumulating, even less than a full cycle. 

See my 15 hypo examples that show various possibilities that vary based on investment timelines.

No mate, I don't agree to this. How can you determine the minimum decline, have you forgotten that Bitcoin is volatile in nature, such that waiting shouldn't be an option because the market is filled with uncertainty, with dca purchases can be made at anytime when price is low and when price is high. However, waiting can actually lead to procrastination of not buying because you may not see the minimum decline that you are looking for, so it is best that you have a proper financial planning and  funds allocation that will enable you to dcaing and use the other part of your funds to buy wholesomely when there is dip by this way you always in the market rather than waiting for any minimum decline just as you said. The question is who do you think will regret more? is it the man that buy now and later see a more decline or the man that was waiting for a minimum decline and couldn't see it please think about this question and answer it yourself.

Well is not actually fixed that one need to be a big businessman to become successful using different strategies or method of accumulating Bitcoin, aslong one is able to have a good sources to accumulate more bitcoin and same time able to manage his financial situation, while accumulating. Can also become successful while holding Bitcoin, such individual should base mainly on DCAing method ( maybe sometime buying the dip ) with some lump-summing, inorder to build a good portfolio successfully.

you're right, I don't see any reason one should trade with his bitcoin while he can just hold and same time accumulate some quantity and watch it grow  in their portfolio, because when trading with your coin yah only killing the potential of it yielding some good profits. Because you can compare those that are holding their Bitcoin to those that are trading with theirs. So you taken such manners in always taking profit when you haven't gotten anywhere with your investment, shows that you are not ready to hold and same time hindering the growth of that investment.

Edited:

if the individual has already reach his accumulation destination ( having a enough Bitcoin in his stash already). Taken profit during the bull run after Bitcoin as undergo another breakthrough won't be any issues, because the individual as already hit his Accumulation goal, without he or she selling all his Bitcoin though.  So such individual can decide buying the dip once in a while to just increase his quantities as time goes on after taking some profit from his investment. But those that have just started their Bitcoin accumulation and those low coiners, would have to keep accumulating without thinking of taken profit yet. And it may take a whole cycle for such individual to be able to have accumulate alot of Bitcoin in their portfolio.

You are right! Why should a man go to DCA if his income is not right. A person can think of keeping his money in a safe place only when he has a consistent income arrangement. And if he is sitting in the gallery waiting for the bull run to break his target after buying Bitcoin on DIP, then he is living in a fool's kingdom.
You should set a target of at least 4-10 years. And in between keep a target on DCA on weekly or monthly basis only then you can reach your destination

Buying at a dip price is not a bad strategy, it's just that it is not advisable to keep waiting for a dip before accumulating unless maybe a short term hodler that is just interested in the little profit they would get in short interval of time. Apart from Bitcoin there are other investments that we do in real life that takes so many years before the profits start coming. Investment is not a get rich quick project as it requires a lot of patience and perseverance before you can start recording success in it.
Every long term hodler knows that there is no late time in Bitcoin accumulation process because certainly they will record some profits in the future so they are never afraid to keep accumulating even at a price that looks unbearable.

The reason why some investors fail while using the DCA is improper planning because I see no reason why an investor that have engaged in a lot of investment strategies would not know that before choosing to DCA they need a stable atmosphere that will not deprive them of their continuous accumulation therefore having a reliable source of income and possibly alternative means should in a case where the principal source isn't coming forth again, they can eventually fall back to the alternative means to still continue forwarding the DCA.

Thats where the deception and the statements of "had I known" usually arises as a result of the thinking that the market will continue to dip to a certain point  before we can then start buying and we end up failing to buy because the market as a speculative one later disappointed us of our expectations and dis the opposite by rising to a new price level unexpected. As a holder with a long term DCAing strategic plan as the market dips at each level that's how we should continue to buy if the money is available, we keep DCAing with each deep instead of waiting for it to get to a certain dip before buy, that idea is a wrong attitude and should be eliminated. Buying the dip doesn't have any price depth it is for us to keep buying and holding as it dips so that when the bull run takes flight we make multiple levels of profits from each point of the dip we bought (DCA) at in total.

What you say is very true, in any type of investment of course we must have a source of funding to be able to carry out the investment, because without a source of funding it is very impossible to be able to carry out investments with any strategy, it would be better to have a good plan. investments that we will make before deciding to start because without planning it will be very difficult if we experience difficulties in investing and we could experience failure in investing because we make mistakes and don't have a good investment plan.

Every person who makes an investment of course has hopes of profit from the investment they make and it is important for them to be able to do it well if they want to make a profit on the investment they make.

No, I read your context carefully and shared my experience. 


Chapter 1.
Well to the point of old times, I saved some Bitcoin(meaning USD not full Bitcoin) and traded on the Binance platform and won some trade then my balance was around $3k. badly said that my Binance account was lost with $2500+USD in BTC pair.  I can not recovery this account.

Chapter 2.
Since I got married, we have been very separated as a family. Our family refused to accept us because of our love marriage. I now spend the BTC I earn to meet my family's needs, where I can't save a bit even if I want to. But I want to save a bit if possible consistently.

Trading is nor the subject of this discussion and bitcoin is not an asset that anyone should be playing around with, it's wrong to give bitcoin the same value as any altcoin and go around messing with it.

Right now I believe that many of us are in very early stages of accumulating bitcoin and our major focus should be on trying to build a proper emergency funds and getting more knowledge about bitcoin, and also a consistent buying no matter the market condition.

Any newbie that deviates from the norm of buying bitcoin into trying to get profits from it at very early stage is actually trading and is messing around with bitcoin, trading is not only when you Invest in altcoin but also when you play around with your bitcoin Invest and that is a note we shoudl all take for ourselves.

The DCA is talked about so much because it is the best method if strictly followed. Before one talk about investing in bitcoin it is assumed that everything like source of funding is in place. Anyone who talks about the DCA method without following it, is not deceiving anybody but him/her self because at the end of the day it is what you have accumulated that you will stand a chance of profiting. Before you start up your investment journey it is always advisable to have plan, and holding period, something like roadmap so that you will always be guided by it. When it comes to investing in bitcoin we shouldn't just do it any how. We should do it with all diligence, knowing that we are investing our resources there and what we are doing has the possibility of transforming our life.

If you have to benefit, from all kinds of strategies you have to move forward only if you will succeed. Suppose you have a super shop, if you just want from a running product to be more profitable in that case you need to hold a few days, If the price is low or high in the market, you can buy product by following DCA strategies, thus you can keep your capital safe and more profitable if you invest. This strategy will make you more profited by both. And the big businessmen became even bigger businessmen following this method. If you have a lot of money you could invest by HOLD, and after a period you will be beneficial....Simultaneously following DCA can boost your profit.

Nah I've not been up to 16 months in, I've only been 6 months in although I started beign consistent from December, but now I'm confused can please explain more about the bear market and the bull market, cause i initially thought that the bear is when bitcoin is experiencing a price decline and much people are selling instead of buying while the bull is when bitcoin is appreciating in price and more people are buying instead of selling. This has been the definition of what a bear market and a bull Market has been to me, is there a better way to define this or have I been wrong with my own personal definition or concept of bear and bull markets.

If I started buying before December or rather let me use December, the trend was kind of bearish casue we were still experiencing some kind of price decline and I think bitcoin also had a major dip or correction to 25k around that same period of time, so i think anyone nee to bitcoin woudl assume they are in a bull, that's why I've been thinking that way.


I highlighted a paragraph out, I've not been mixing strategies, I've been buying but I always thought we have been in the bear Market and I have also expressed myself in terms if us beign in the bear market but right now I feel my perspective of what a bear market or bull market is shattered, so I think it would be fair if I could explain more about it.

You are actually right on this sir, I have not been into this crypto space for too long, but have done a lot of research and findings and what I have observed and take notice of is people that bought Bitcoin with the intention of holding it for a very long time like 4 years upward as you mentioned, are people that benefited the most from their investment, because I have seen that Bitcoin investment is more beneficial to a long term holder, than a short term holder, and during the cause of that lengthy years, the accumulation of that person will be much more impressive if he or she keeps to his accumulating strategy during that time, and he will sure reap bountifully when the perfect time comes that he wish to take some profit.

One thing with human is that when something is introduced newly not everyone will show interest yet because they are afraid if it will have a future, every one is careful with their investments as no body want to lose while investing. The few that embraced Bitcoin when it was introduced, had the most advantage of it and some of them who were so determined to continue investing saw a "light at the end of the tunnel"
I have come across various posts talking about using the DCA as a beginner in Bitcoin investment but that's not a prerequisite that when you use the DCA that you are good to go but what is important is your ability to maintain the DCA because it is not just about saying it but actions matters a lot like what effort will you be putting in place to make your DCA survive the test of time so before thinking of DCAing, a reliable source of maintaining the DCA must be put in place

You are reading me out of context.  I was talking about anyone who may have been investing in bitcoin in the last 16 months has been investing in a bull market, and even if you have intentions to invest longer than 16 months, there surely are quite a few forum members who are participating in this thread who started in the last 16 months.

Furthermore, your forum registration date is coming upon 5 years, so maybe you are getting close to 5 years of investing into BTC.?

By the way, another thing that I frequently mention is that anyone who considers himself as an investor in BTC and buys new BTC should have a plan to invest 4-10 years or longer for any new purchases that he makes, otherwise from my point of view, he would be considered a speculator rather than an investor on those new purchases if he is not able to consider an investment timeline of at least 4 years.

Investing for 16 months is not really wise for me. Because here it is possible to make profit only by planning and investing for 16 months, it may not be correct, many times I think some part should be invested regularly. It should be planned to invest for a period of at least 3 to 5 years so that no matter what stage the market goes through, the investment will continue and the profit will always increase.