Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 359. (Read 123547 times)

Those who bought at $20k early last year saw opportunity and seized it, when others were seeing fear/crash and today those who took the opportunity are now seen as the heros who has won. For you to see profit in Bitcoin investment you have to make a firm decision, stand your ground even if it means standing alone, that is buying when others are selling and dragging the price down. Don't look at price just keep buying.

I agree with you that the values of bitcoin been purchased by an investor will increase in the future but the price is what we don't know, the thing is that looking at bitcoin price today and remembering it's price two years back a good investor should be encouraged to buy, bitcoin is not doing bad when it come it's value and price, an investment that rises from $42k to $45k on last two weeks Sunday, and till this moment it continues to hover around and today it is 46k if any short-term investor had taken the courage I think they would have made a good profit though this depends on their input.

Some people are just watching this events unfolding without making any move, buy now no matter the amount, doing it without stopping will help you because with the recent happening bitcoin is making a good move and I know that no one will want to be left behind.  

Yes, you are right JJG. I have met some friends, explained to them about Bitcoin and told them to buy Bitcoin. At that time, they objected to buying Bitcoin because they still had a lot of credit arrears that had not been paid off and many other reasons. That's the most common reason we often encounter.

Even though some friends refused, I was able to convince some other friends to buy Bitcoin. Say it's $30 to buy coffee + snacks at a cafe in their free time. They started buying Bitcoin and storing it in the wallet on their smartphone. I say just save it for a few months and we'll see what happens. The price of Bitcoin went up then, and they came to me and showed me what this meant.

I explained that these are the benefits you get. If you can save in the form of Bitcoin, you can have more Bitcoin and looking at Bitcoin price movements so far, the price will still rise. Some of those friends finally decided to buy Bitcoin regularly and ended up at the last ATH increase yesterday, where they sold most of the Bitcoin and their profits doubled. If I'm not mistaken, some of them had above 0.2 BTC because the price at that time was not what it is now.

Of course, the 200-week moving average is the average BTC price (I believe including trade volume) for the last 200-weeks, which is just about 4 years, and you can see that the BTC goes up, and I linked my chart that shows the history too, yet at the same time, we do not proclaim that history proves future results, and we are not talking about trading in this thread, so I was not even suggesting to try to trade on that data - except maybe I was merely suggesting to keep buying and accumulating and keep the 200-week moving average in mind in terms of your own valuating of your own BTC stash.  so for example, you could consider that if you have 10 BTC, then your spot price valuation would be $460k; however your 200-week moving average valuation would be $300k. 

I think you are being more fair to yourself if you consider the valuation of your BTC stash using the 200-week moving average rather than the price and even though it is not guaranteed that the BTC price is going to stay above the 200-week moving average, but it seems to be a much more solid way to valuate your BTC stash, whether you are trying to get to fuck you status or you have some other reason to attempt to put value to the seeming progress of your long term BTC accumulation.


You can look at how the BTC price varies from the 200-week moving average with the passage of time, and I am not sure if it is telling you very much about how to trade, except maybe that if the BTC price is real close to (or even below) the 200-week moving average, then you likely can have some pretty good ideas that you are in great places to accumulate BTC, and since we are not talking about selling in this thread, we are not suggesting to sell in order to accumulate more BTC at some later date, because it can be quite difficult to know how large the spread might get between BTC's spot price and the 200-week moving average. 

Currently the BTC spot price is around 53% higher than the 200-week moving average, yet there have been times that the BTC spot price has been 3-5x higher than the 200-week moving average (like during much of 2021, and there have been times that BTC's spot price got up to 12x to 15x higher than the 200-week moving average like in 2017 or maybe even more extreme of 18x to 24x higher than the 200-week moving average in 2013.  You can look up the specific dates and the differences on this website, and it can be difficult to try to trade on these kinds of dynamics... but how are you going to trade on that?  the earlier BTC price rise in 2021 that got up to nearly $65k reached around 5x the 200-week moving average, but the second one that reached $69k was ONLY around 3x higher than the 200-week moving average.  So it is not easy to trade those kinds of dynamics, as much as it might help to inform when to be more aggressive in your BTC accumulation, but even that can be dangerous if you come to believe that the 200-week is the absolute bottom, yet in 2022 we had times that the BTC price got to 35% below the 200-week moving average and also between about mid 2022 until October 2023, the BTC spot price spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average, even though historically it had not spent very much time below the 200-week moving average.


You should not be thining about BTC transaction fees merely in terms of what they happen to be at the time that you make the transaction; however, you should be ttrying to give yourself options by NOT having a whole bunch of small BTC transactions and if you ever need to spend a lot of those transactions at the same time, then you will end up equal amount of fees for each of them.   So if you have $5k in bitcoin in your account, yet each of the past transactions that make up your BTC wallet are around  $50 each, then you have to combine 100 transactions in order to spend the $5k, so it could cost you $2,500 or more in fees to spend that $5k if you were going to do it all at once, and you are left with a bunch of small UTXOs that you have to wait for fees to go down before they are spendable.. so you are creating fewer options for yourself, as compared to the person who has maybe only 10 UTXOs or 1 or 2 UTXOs that make up the $5k.


You have to decide what are you trying to achieve?  If you have reached fuck you status, and you are living off your coins, you might regret it if you go too aggressive and end up depleting your coins faster than you thought that you would.

In traditional markets the withdrawal rate tends to be considered 4%, but I had placed that as conservative and growth oriented, and I put 6% to 10% as moderate, but that does not mean that I am correct, and you have to end up making sure that BTC continues to outperform your withdrawal rate, and so far the lowest that BTC price have gotten is in the last 18 months, the 200-week moving average was only going up around 20% annually during that worst-ever time.


No problem.  It is good to get feed back on those ideas.


With any tool, you have to figure out a way to use it that ends up working for you, and I consider the tool to be helpful in attempts to manage long term holdings.  I don't consider it to be a trading tool, even though several people want to use it in that way, which may or may not end up working out well for them.


You can lump sum buy, even when the BTC price has been going up for a while, and you can also supplement a lump sum buy by using DCA and buying on dips after you made the lump sum buy, even if you ended up unwittingly deploying your lump sum buy at or near the top.

Lump sum is actually a very good method to be used in times of Bitcoin accumulation but however is mostly use by people that has huge sum of money because it has to do with buying a whole lot of Bitcoin at a time but however is a very stressful strategy because you will need be constantly watching the market or setting your notifications that if the Bitcoin price gets to a particular level it should notify you, so perhaps with that you can regularly monitor the price of Bitcoin incase it dipps you take advantage by Lump sum.

But however in times of using lump sum strategy I believe there should be need to have a back up plan because the possibility of Bitcoin getting to the particular point an investor tend to buy may not be certain and sometimes it could take a very long time before the price could get there, so perhaps in a case like that an investor should be able to navigate through other ways of accumulating Bitcoin by using DCA method in other to keep his accumulation running while he wait for the main strategy.

Such methods are not only still effective, but are also still very widely used by people who are accumulating more Bitcoins and increasing the size of their respective portfolios in these increasingly improving conditions. Because we can all imagine how victorious and happy those who once bought Bitcoin at a price of $ 20K are still holding it quite well.

Just now I saw that the price of Bitcoin almost touched $48K, which means it is quite close to the new resistance level of $50K. And if Bitcoin can pass the $48K mark in a few days, of course it won't be so impossible to see a price of $50K in Bitcoin this month because price increases like now usually have more resilience than increases that fly straight away without any gradual stages.

Whether the price of Bitcoin is high or low, if you continue to invest for the long term, then you must invest regularly. You just bought the number/digits of bitcoins, the value of these bitcoins will be the highest in the future. That's why investing in DCA method is most preferred because if you buy bitcoin at higher price or current price at $46k, and in the past you bought bitcoin at $34k ratio following two to three months past price. If you calculate the average ratio of your bitcoin purchase in these two ratios, your bitcoin purchase will definitely be less. Investing bitcoins in this way will definitely allow you to follow the right level of DCA method.

I think these patterns are caused by traders activities in the market. If Bitcoin has a particular patterns it follows at a certain intervals or time, then Bitcoin price can be predicted correctly. The traders are the ones who are acting similarly that's why the patterns are looking so similar, since it is the market activities that determine the price movement. The patterns are just there to aid you in knowing what happened in the past, and act as a guide when making decisions. The decision to buy or sell whenever you come across these patterns is yours alone to make, as past events doesn't really guarantee same occurance because from the time of the last one many things/events might have played out, which may alter somethings from happening or repeating itself exactly same way it happened last time.

Still on the same page, they both showed how dominant Bitcoin has been over successive intervals of years. I want to ask, technically will it be very much accurate to set the annual withdrawal rate on Moderate or Aggressive?



I will gladly take my time to go through to understand much better and do a better follow-up here.


It could be the appropriate tool to decide on when to accumulate and take profits without altering one's portfolio negatively rather than checking the price of Bitcoin on exchanges.

Personally I would pick out the idea of buying in lump sum when not currently in the DIP, this could be an inappropriate behavior for me and would prefer just dividing into two parts, one for the DCA and the other for the DIP. He who wants to use the lump sum strategy should get ready to tye his/her tail to a very longer investment than he would when using any of the others.

I see the recent market moving quite well in fact we are in a good enough rally to see quite a significant increase. Well, I missed out on some recent purchases because the fees were quite expensive so I didn't open the market in the last few days.

I often make purchases from the exchange and withdraw them to my personal wallet and if the fees are high enough it makes me think a little about not doing it twice a month but will do it once every 3 months if I have to change my purchase planning.

But apart from that, the DCA that I have been doing for a long time has seen quite promising ROI in my portfolio. I think that this is a good start to grow his confidence to keep Hold and come back to accumulate when the fees are cheap. Maybe some of them are sore looking at the market because they regret having sold earlier.

Bitcoin etf is coming and we will see huge whales entering the market to pump the price of Bitcoin.

Are you serious. I just confirmed and it is absolutely through JJG. Does it mean Bitcoin follows a certain pattern at some intervals? And if we are to jump into buying or selling whenever we come across these patterns, is it the right to do?

I think pattern exist. And it might be traders who make this pattern exist and occurs at the right point in time. The reason why it happens that way is because traders choose to buy and sell accordingly to that same pattern making it to actually exist every year or any interval it happens.

Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**

In late 2015 it was:  $252

In late 2017 it was:  $1,049

In late 2019 it was:  $4,908

In late 2021 it was:  $17,839

In late 2023 it was:  $29,049

**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here.

Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.

Around 2017 the price of Bitcoin was around the $19k range, getting to 2021 just after the Bitcoin halving that happened 2020 the price hits the $64k mark and extended further in November of same 2021 making Bitcoin highest All Time High of $69K, I think there is every tendency of surpassing the $100k price not even including the latest ETF UPDATES circulating, won't stage on that cause it's not yet decided


Nothing should be confusing here, anyone Dcaing in small amount will have to hold their Bitcoin in exchanges like Binanace or any which they used in buying for a particular period of time till it has accumulated into a huge amount due to high transaction fees in sending to hardware wallets like the Electrum, Trezor or any of your choice. We all know holding a huge amount of our investment in Cex is not advisable, these hardwares wallets are secured for our holdings.

@Fuso.hp, you are sounding as if you are new into the crypto space. People keeping their bitcoin in exchanges are ignorant of the risk of losing all their investment when the exchange crashes or is been hacked. We have seen in 2022 the crash of FTX which render so many investors and institutions bankrupt because their funds was kept in an exchange, is this what you want for your bitcoin investment to be enjoyed by someone else after your hard labour and sacrifice investing. Initially when bitcoin transaction fee was normal and there was no ordinals, nobody will even advice you to leave $50-100 worth of bitcoin in an exchange because they are in control of your coins.

The reason why @JJG said you can buy bit by bit and keep it in an exchange till it has reached up to $500 is because of the high transaction fee that we are experiencing, so that you don't end up buying bitcoin at $100 and use almost $40 to transfer to your self custody wallet. You will ending up giving 40% of your weekly DCA amount to miners. It is never safe or advisable to keep funds in an exchange. Can you image investing for 4yrs and your investment is in an exchange, this means that you are investing for the exchange. Not your keys...not your coins.

Exactly, the person who has the money to lump sum have the options to lump sum or not, but I will prefer that such money should be shared into three parts, where one part should be uses to DCA regularly, and the other part should be kept to buy at the dip and the third part should go for lump sum because lump sum to me is front loading of your investment.

Investing DCA does not guarantee that your cost per BTC will be less than someone who lump sum invested.

There may be people who could never really save up $1k, $10k, $20k or $30k, but DCA allows them to get up to those amounts with the passage of time, and their dollars are already invested rather than being in dollars, which would be ridiculous to accumulate dollars and wait to invest in a lump sum.

Usually people who have lump sums that they can invest already have that money available, so the person who has the money available can choose whether to DCA and/or to lump sum and/or to buy on dips, so that person has more options, and it may not make a whole hell of a lot of sense for the person who already has a lump sum of money available to choose to DCA or even to buy on dips rather than to buy right away, but even the person who has a lump sum available is not forced into having to buy right away.. he has options.

The person who does not have any money available.. has way fewer options, and DCA'ing makes way more sense for the person who has no money available to be able to invest as soon as the money comes in rather than waiting and lump summing at a later date..  and in the end even the person who does not have a lump sum, still has the option to wait or to let the money build up, which I would suggest is not a good idea, but people are free to do what they like, including having fun staying poor.


And, that is part of the reason why an overwhelming majority of people are not prepared for up.  too bad for them.  The only way to prepare for up is to buy a bit, and it can take a while to even get to an amount that is feeling sufficiently prepared for up.. as compared with having either no coins, which is absolutely unprepared for up, or low coins, which might have some preparation for UP, but not enough.. which a lot of people who even have some bitcoin, are not really sufficiently prepared for up.


Yeah, but you and I already agree (and know) that this thread is not about trading, so there no dispute that selling in order to buy does not tend to be a good technique for anyone except maybe folks who want to learn how to trade and gamble, which results in 90% or more doing worse than if they had just bought BTC on a regular basis rather than screwing around with those kinds of selling techniques.

So then the main questions in front of you and me still revolve around our differences of opinions in regards to what kinds of circumstances might constitute waiting versus just buying right away and regularly... I think that my post largely speaks for itself.. because ongoing buying may well be better than HODL, and even if it is not better, at least it is not "the ONLY way" to invest in bitcoin.


That could be true, but we are not talking about those kinds of distracting techniques in this thread... and yeah, there are all kinds of ways that guys can generate cashflow, and persons with more resources have more ways to generate cashflow, but so what?  It does not matter very much,  because ultimately we are talking about guys having to deal with whatever cash flows that they have and if they have fewer kinds of cashflows then they can try to figure out various ways that they might increase or improve their cashflows, but I still don't see any reason to get distracted into those kinds of topics... because whether you are rich or poor you need to deal with what resources, you have and if you happen to be poor, I see little to no benefit to be whining that others have more resources, unless you might be saying that you cannot buy as much or that you have to try to increase your cashflow or to decrease your expenses, but if you are in a position in which you are not able to do that, then you have to work with what you have.  We probably don't disagree about any of this, even if we might be talking about some of the balances in different ways.  

For sure, you already know that I tend to react to the "us poor people are different" claims... which is an ongoing dispute between us because you say that us poor people" cannot buy regularly, or us poor people set up buy ladders all the way down to $20k or us poor people have to strategize to buy on dips and blah blah blah.. which I think is a bunch of bullshit, because us poor people can build up to certain scenarios to be able to set up sell ladders all the way down and the other various techniques because it would be a matter of how much to set up and what increments and sometimes how long it might take to be able to build up those kinds of reserves, while at the same time balancing how much money is put to work on a regular basis versus how much money might be allowed to stay on the sidelines for buying on dips in ladder kinds of formats in which there may well not be attempts to guess how much of a dip is a dip, but  just to largely have them set up.


Ever since about mid August, there have not been too many opportunities to buy the dip.. and it became even more noticeable by the time we got to mid-October, so who knows whether there are going to be very many new opportunities to buy the dip in the near term future.  For sure, at some point we are going to end up experiencing some kind of a significant dip, but really since August, we probably have had less than 5 dips that were more than 8%.. and maybe the most we got was around 11%, which I would hardly characterize as much of a dip in the whole scheme of things when we are considering that the BTC price had dipped into the upper $24ks in August, so we have gotten quite close to a 2x price increase since then, and so in that regard, getting a 20% to 30% dip should not even be very surprising - but still does not mean that we are going to get it.  

I personally expecting some resistance in the $55k arena.. but even that would not be guaranteed given how generally the BTC has been going up in such a way that seems to allow for buying support to catch up.... so who knows?  The ones who are consistently buying are likely not going to be greatly disadvantaged, even if we get some kind of a dip, especially if we compare them to the ones who have been waiting around and not really buying and have not figured out some kind of way to act rather than waiting and/or watching on the sidelines.


Even though there is some inflation adjusted truth to what Greyhats is saying, I personally don't get that excited by those kinds of inflation adjusted assessments that suggest that we have to move the ATH even higher in order to "really have an ATH."  But then again, I tend to not really want to get too maniacally focused on tops anyhow, because if we are in bitcoin for the long term, sure we can start to shave off some of our BTC profits at various top prices, but if we are largely holding the vast majority of our BTC, then the value of our holdings will continue to go up with the passage of time, especially if we consider something like the 200-week moving average, which has never failed to go u, even if it has periods of time in which it is going up faster or slower, yet even now it is over $30k.  

You are confusing the Bitcoin investor with the Bitcoin trader, here I am talking about the investor who deposits fiat to exchange then buys BTC and keeps repeating it every week/month for a long period let's say 5 years straight who should be termed as an investor and for them there is no need to keep withdrawing their BTC from the exchange other than the security concern if exchange hot wallet hacked and users lose their funds.

A bitcoin trader is someone who keeps moving crypto around exchanges so they can make profits with the price difference from one exchange to another and numerous other ways.

DCA can be the right strategy to start up accumulating your Bitcoin, DCAing on a daily and weekly  basis can be more efficient than that of an hour or monthly basis. Dcaing hourly may tend to have very little or no price movement, it doesn't create a better room to buy at a good price compared to when you buy at weekly or some days interval, the time space should be worth it but not as too spaced as monthly intervals, too much space but this could be efficient for monthly earners.


You just speculating the price of Bitcoin hitting an All Time High of just $88k, don't you think it might be more than that. I would hope to see something up to that of $100k


The price movement since the beginning of this year is encouraging to keep Dcaing, the little dips are worth it from 44k down to 42k then up to 43k, this alone shows how profitable it will be to continue DCAing, just the beginning more are yet to come.