Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 354. (Read 123560 times)

For sure, we cannot always know how our investment is going to do, and surely those who had the bulk of their BTC investing already accomplished prior to 2023, would have been able to measure progress in their stash during 2023, and there could be some false sense of security if a guy continues to invest in BTC for the whole of 2023 and the BTC price is continuing to go up, yet at the same time, many of us don't necessarily have a choice regarding when we hear about bitcoin and when we are ready to get in, and so most times, we have to start from where we are at - including considering if we want to DCA or if we might want to do a bit of front-loading in a kind of lump sum way, or alternatively waiting for more dip (or buying this particular dip in a lump sum kind of way), and even if we do some variation of front-loading of our BTC investment and we might even decide to continue to accumulate BTC, even if the BTC price is going up because we might conclude that we don't have enough, and even if BTC continues to go up and various new ATHs are reached, if we have little to no bitcoin, we may well want to continue to accumulate, and even if we have a decently sized BTC stash, we still might want to continue to accumulate BTC, even if new ATHs are reached, even though in those kinds of circumstances of continuing to buy, even during ATHs, we are likely going to be more advantaged by the BTC that we had bought earlier rather than the more recently purchased BTC, yet as long as our BTC investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, it still may be better to just keep purchasing no matter what the BTC price situation until our BTC stash size starts to justify that we might want to modify our BTC accumulation approach in accordance with how large our BTC stash is getting, which still may not be the case of even selling any BTC until after at least a full cycle, maybe even 1.5 cycles or more before we might want to change our strategy from accumulation and into a kind of BTC maintenance strategy.  

Of course, if we are new to investing and we DCA for 4-6 years or even longer than that, we still might not be in a position to really be feeling like we have accumulated a lot of wealth, and surely if we are coming into BTC after having had already accumulated some wealth, then we might be able to be way more aggressive in terms of both deciding and following through with a more front-loaded BTC investment/accumulation approach.

I cannot remember if you had stated some of your particulars Obim34 - yet even your forum registration date is not very far into the past, so if you are only recently starting to accumulate BTC, such as even less than a year, then from my point of view it can take a quite a bit of time to build up your stash in such a way that you should even be considering reducing your DCA amount, even if ATHs end up being reached in the next 1-2 years, and sure there could be some value in modifying your approach if it starts to seem that we are in blow off top territory, and so these are not easy choices in regards to how to manage the situation in terms of holding off buys or letting cash to build up in terms of preparing for dips that may or may not end up happening.


Your explanation is not really that great, Mayor of ogba.  Of course, each of us may well need to consider all three of the possible categories for dividing funds, but it might not make sense to follow all three of the categories at all times.  So, usually, if you are not making very much sense in terms of how you might use any fiat that you save up, then you may well be better off to just buy regularly and not save up because if you are holding back too much cash, then you may well end up fomo buying when the BTC price is going up rather than merely having that cash available for when the BTC price dips, that is if you even have enough cash to be holding aside for such purposes... or if it would be worth it.

Let's go back to my the five examples from my earlier post.


If you might suggest that after a year and a half investing into bitcoin you might either be in the position of the Example 2 guy or maybe you are in the position of the example 4 guy who had lump sum invested, and then thereafter continued to DCA.  

If so far you are only investing $10 per week, but you have an emergency fund that is ONLY 1 month's expenses, then maybe part of the reason that you are ONLY investing $10 per week is because you might want to build up your emergency fund.. None of the hypos talk about a guy who is otherwise building up cash to hold aside... but if either the Example 2 or Example 4 guy were to suddenly receive some kind of bonus, such as $1,200, then at that point it might become relevant to consider the three categories of BTC accumulation, but also it might be relevant to consider how lowly funded his emergency fund is too...  In that case, of the extra $1,200 coming in, how is he going to divide it?  Does he really need to employ all three categories, and 4 if we consider the emergency fund, and 5 if we consider the amount of his debt.  It is a fortune for anyone to be receiving some extra money, since that might allow him to be able to better buttress his various BTC accumulation practices, but even with new money coming in, he still might be tempted with consumption matters, and for example if he were to have a spouse, the spouse might have some ideas about how to use that extra money too.


Of course, there is no guarantee that 2024 will be better than 2023, but surely it seems that a decent amount of ongoing upward momentum is growing, as well as various reasons for the momentum to continue to grow in the next year or two. .including if we consider that kind of upward growth to be part of a historical pattern that bitcoin had already been following.. even while the past does not cause us to have a lot of confidence that the same pattern will repeat in the future, while at the same time, there are no real competing theories regarding what is likely to happen with bitcoin that negates that we might have a certain amount of expectation that the next year or two have good chances of continuing to be UPpity, overall.  

Our position size can also hedge regarding these kinds of matters, including considering if we have some BTC then we are way more prepared for up than if we don't and if we have a sufficient quantity of BTC (relative to our overall financial situation - we might even describe some of these as more aggressive), we are likely better off than those who are lowly allocated (or whimpy about it).

I frequently suggest that it is way better to be a bit on the aggressive side rather than on the whimpy side when it comes to BTC accumulation, but even whimpy accumulation is better than being on zero.

And, regarding your final sentence, it seems to be a bit ridiculous to be making those kind of sentiment statements because surely people sometimes buy at the top and there are various price waves in bitcoin, yet it is probably better that normies get the fuck started in buying bitcoin, even if they might screw up in their earliest buys, but if they at least develop longer term strategies rather than aping in at the top, then they are likely to do better, but even if there are long term trends of BTC prices going up, we still cannot necessarily know when the top is in, and so in that regard, it is likely better that normies still get some kind of starting position no matter what the price, and if the BTC price is toppie, they can still have those first purchases at or near the top, but just continue to buy or have a plan to continue to buy even if the BTC price dips, whether that is DCA or buying dips or some combination of those kinds of strategies.


One great arguing with another great.


I surely did not suggest that 2023 was one of the best year or even amongst the best of years for bitcoin merely because it doubled or tripled in price, and largely it still had quite a bit of recovery from a pretty bad year, so for anyone who had not gotten shaken out in 2022 or maybe even was also accumulating in 2022 - which surely it would have been even a better year in 2023 for anyone who had been constantly and continuously accumulating in 2022.  But, yeah, I doubt that we are in any kind of major disagreement because in some sense bitcoin's ongoing survival and plowing through these troubling times and largely either retaining value or recuperating lost value still should provide enough information that normies (current no coiners) should be inspired to learn more and more about it... which also goes to show that even with so much press and hype that bitcoin gets in bitcoin circles and even including with quite a few financial BIG WIGS getting involved into bitcoin, we still should realize that those of us who are buying and holding bitcoin are still quite early in bitcoin's adoption phase - which also should help to inform us regarding whether we have enough bitcoin or not.


We need to be careful when we are attempting to get into too much detailed analysis of actual BTC ownership based on the number of bitcoin in certain addresses that may or may not be controlled by an individual (or it could even represent value being held by various custodians)


It sounds like you keep praying for a dip that might not happen.  Hopefully you are adequately prepared for UP, and you are not regretting too much that you had ended up holding way too much cash in August, September and October waiting for dips that did not end up happening then, either... but hey, whatever, you do you.

I think that you inspire me to add Example 7^**, which would go back in time, like example 6, however, I may have to assume that you might not have been able to lump sum in the beginning, and that is part of your ongoing claim of being poor. .and maybe we could go with a straight forward DCA in order to argue that you would have likely been better off to DCA rather than trying to time various dips since May 2016.  

Example 7: This person has similar circumstances as Example 2 with a $10 per week investment into bitcoin, except his investment timeline goes back to May 2016 (rather than merely 18 months), so he ended up investing $4k during that time and accumulated about 1.04 BTC.  (currently worth around $42,500).

And, I think that part of my point is that whatever playing around you have been doing with BTC in the last nearly 8 years, with DCA you could have had been as aggressive as your budget would permit (and you could still do that today), which ultimately may well end up causing you to invest more into BTC during any given period, and maybe even having a higher cost per BTC than under other approaches, yet the fact that the BTC price tends to end up going up in the long term, you are going to likely end up being better off by buying BTC regularly and often rather than trying to time dips... or overly waiting around to buy when you already have the money to be able to buy BTC and you still are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for up.. like you should be..because you ultimately are too whimpy in your ongoing, persistent and seemingly obstinately stubborn way of waiting around for BTC prices to fall to some never-satisfying level.

Edited to add example 7:


Well, maybe we might need to check back with you around the beginning of 2027 and see where you are at at that time, and surely it may seem like a long time, so getting through a whole cycle seems to be a good place to check in, and surely many times, people might still be fairly heavily accumulating BTC, even after having had 4 years of accumulation.. so then we check again and again, but at least getting to the first 4 years seems like a good place to check in.. and figure if some adjustments might need to be made.. even though for sure, any of us who are active in our BTC investment are likely monitoring it regularly, especially while we are in early accumulation stages, but we still might feel some needs to monitor it at later points down the road, including deeper kinds of analysis, regarding "where are we at?"  does anything that we are doing need to be tweaked?

I have this testimony to say about the year 2023 as well. I learnt about the DCA method and started using it. I must admit that it marked a turning point in my Bitcoin accumulation with a good proportion of my Bitcoin bought within the "don't wake me up" region.

When price of Bitcoin rose above $30k, my entire asset was already in huge profit and now that market experienced some dips after the ETF approval, I'm still comfortable in profit while still buying more. I rarely look at the price of Bitcoin because I'm more focus on achieving a target set for myself because I'm not using funds meant for my daily needs rather a small fraction of my money that I can afford to leave in Bitcoin even till I retire from active service.

Therefore, I will forever look back to 2023 as a great year.

I can attest to this that 2023 was one of the best year for bitcoiners. Those who has been in Bitcoin investment for long and utilize the opportunity of buying Bitcoin when the price was very low at the beginning of last year, where very grateful that they got Bitcoin at that giveaway prices of $15k, $19k etc. It is only newbies that will say 2023 wasn't a good year for bitcoiners. Just imagine how many people that are wishing go see Bitcoin at those price of early 2023 so that they can pack and load their bags, but that kind of opportunity is no longer there.

This always happen when we are nearing halving, check anytime halving is close this happens, the prediction of bitcoin price was as a result of the information about halving and much expectant of individuals that awaits ETF approval, despite that this ETF stuff has not given much of its influence on bitcoin, but it stands as an encouragement to investors.

Bitcoin price is been influenced by mostly the events that are bound to occur seasonally, there are people that has this statistics and because when ever the see possibility of the occurrence of the events the will start accumulating knowing fully well that if the decide chose either short or long term investment, it will favour them no matter how small, in any investment, good information and adherence is the best option.

Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.

The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.

Exactly by that year it give opportunity for people to accumulate bitcoin on more cheaper price since I think that year was so good for holders or want to do DCA since bitcoin price at that time is quiet affordable compare on the current figures we see right now.

We can see here the past price of bitcoin Bitcoin price monthly in 2023

For that we can really see a great price changes and it gives huge confident for people to acquire bitcoin and aim for long term investment.

Bitcoin has rebounded after 2 years of bearishness. The year 2023 has been regarded as a significant year for Bitcoiners. Bitcoin has embarked on another bull run, increasing in price by nearly 160 percent through nearly 2 years of high-low volatility. We see Bitcoin touching $44k in 2023 itself.

The number of Bitcoin billionaires increased by 247 percent in 2023, which can be cited as one of Bitcoin's greatest achievement.

At the start of 2023, address with a capacity of $1 million or more were around 23,795 but by the end of the year that number had increased to 97,497. At the end of last year, 90040 addresses had more than $1 million in bitcoin assets. Again 7457 address have seen more than $10 million assets. Bitcoin has been trending on Google since 2023.

You are right, 2023 was one of the best year for Bitcoin and Bitcoin investor. The behaviour of Bitcoin was predictable for those who cared to check, so it was easy for all types of investors, be it long term and short term, to achieve their aim.

Bitcoin lingered so much around $26,000, giving many people the opportunity to buy as much as they could for those that buy the dip, others that use different methods also had the chance to buy.

Everyone also expected that Bitcoin was going to rise towards the end of 2023 and it actually did. So it was indeed a great year for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners

Every dip in the Bitcoin prices is a time to buy and accumulate more. I am sure that after the ETF approval Bitcoin prices will go very high and right now they are available for a much big discount and anything under 45000$ is a time to press the buy button. The key here is that you should have the spare money and we are able to buy Bitcoin and hold them for a long term. It would be our most precious investment ever.

And what pleases me most is that 2024 promises to be an even better and luckier year for those who have been accumulating bitcoins. Now we are definitely not at high bitcoin values and the potential for growth is very large. I argue this by the fact that there are very few hamsters in bitcoin right now, and the crypto world is silent in the news. And you all know that if even housewives start buying bitcoin, then this is a clear sign that the price will soon go down and there will be an opportunity to buy on a new DIP.

If he divides his fund into three equal parts, it will give him a very comfortable way of accumulating Bitcoin without playing with his emotions. For instance, if his currently using the DCA strategy to accumulate Bitcoin at regular intervals, and Bitcoin makes an amazing move to $60k per Bitcoin, he can use the already kept fund for a lump sum to buy Bitcoin. He is not too sure if the Bitcoin price will go below $60k, and if the Bitcoin price dips to $35k he can buy the Bitcoin dip with the already kept funds to buy the Bitcoin dip because by the time the interval to buy Bitcoin through the DCA strategy will reach Bitcoin price might be making an upward trend. After buying Bitcoin with a lump sum and buying the Bitcoin dip, he can continue accumulating Bitcoin with the DCA strategy.

Yes, it's relatable to those who took the very opportunity of starting up their Bitcoin journey and also those who kept consistent in their Bitcoin accumulation. The market was open to everyone but not everyone seized the opportunity, so putting into consideration the way the market is moving it will also accept more investors, likely few months after the halving then we expect to experience an ATH, which may not be the perfect spot to hop in.

Overall 2023 was a good year for bitcoin and bitcoiners.

Hahaha! You got it. I just want to get more knowledge from you. Basically you explain everything briefly with examples. And when you explain so everyone get knowledge from your post. That was my goal you explain very well.
Everyone was arguing here on me but I was listening because I was waiting your brief reply. I read the whole reply you wrote. You wrote simple and clear examples. And gave much knowledge with your knowledge thanks.

Cash can last a long time for us because it depends on how it is managed. If you can allocate cash to each position of need, you can see the remainder of all the money from your salary or income. From there, you can determine what the remaining money is for. If you already know Bitcoin, you can allocate a certain amount of funds to invest in Bitcoin and leave another amount for other things because you have also allocated a certain amount for sudden needs.

The DCA method is the best method for investing in Bitcoin. The DCA method can also be used for other investments because I invested in Bitcoin and a little gold. A true investor will hold his investment firmly, and even though conditions are not in his favour, he still holds it because he knows that his investment will provide huge profits in the future. And yes, investors who have been investing in Bitcoin for a long time, even when Bitcoin prices were still low, have taken big profits and are still holding Bitcoin in their wallets, waiting for other big profits.

For 2024, it is uncertain whether it will be better than 2023. But we see that the current Bitcoin price is above the Bitcoin price in 2023 so conditions are better. Maybe we will see a price increase after the halving occurs, which will be a long rally to reach a new ATH price for Bitcoin. So it is true that we still have to prepare an investment in Bitcoin this year so that we can continue to buy and store Bitcoin to sell at the next ATH or will still store it for the next few years.

I agree with you, cash doesn't last us very long. As long as you have money in your wallet you only want to spend but when you don't have money in your wallet invest that money in something but you don't sell that investment and spend the money even if it's hard. 

We always consider DCA method as the best investment method to invest. If the mindset of an investor is that he will only invest and keep increasing his investment amount and he will hold that investment deeply then the investment will pay him very well at the end of time. 
Everyone invests with the intention of holding the investment, but not everyone can actually hold their investment for a certain period of time. Those who have invested for the long term in 2023 or investors who have invested in the DCA approach since mid-2023 can see almost double the amount of gains by early 2024. 

The investor may not be happier than the profit after investing. 
From the way 2024 has started, we can imagine that 2024 is going to be good for the Bitcoin market compared to 2023, so now we should pay more attention to investing instead of saving money unnecessarily or keeping cash for ourselves and spending that money. I invested regularly from now on, maybe by the end of 2024 we will see the Bitcoin market double from the current level, but the investment will be ours.

Instead of trying to act as if you know everything, and acting as if you are providing some kind of enlightened answer that "everything is subjective/relative), then why don't we talk about a few different specific examples in order to attempt to verify if there is a best way forward or not.

Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.

Example 2: This person has the same monthly income, expenses and debt and emergency fund of Example 1, yet he had been accumulating BTC at about $10 per week in the last 18 months with $810 invested and about 0.0378 BTC accumulated (currently worth $1,625.40).  

Example 3: This person has the same monthly income, expenses and debt and emergency fund of Example 1, yet he had been accumulating BTC at about $100 per week in the last 18 months with $810 invested and about 0.378 BTC accumulated (currently worth $16,254).

Example 4: This person has the same situation as Example 2, Except that he both lump sum invested into BTC and started to DCA at $10 per week in the same way as Example 2, The lump sum amount was right around $2,200 and he got 0.1 BTC out of those early lump sum transactions.  Therefore, his whole BTC holdings is about 0.1378 BTC accumulated. (currently worth $5,925.40)

Example 5: This person has the same situation as Example 3, Except that he both lump sum invested into BTC and started to DCA at $100 per week in the same way as Example 3, The lump sum amount was right around $11,000 and he got 0.5 BTC out of those early lump sum transactions.  Therefore, his whole BTC holdings is about 0.878 BTC accumulated.  (currently worth $37,754)

Is what any of these guys should do different?  Does their BTC accumulation history change their options?  Are there better or worse ways to go forward for each of these guys?  

Of course, we could give 5 more examples that are similar to the first 5, and these later 5 examples might end up having more or less debt and/or a greater emergency fund built up, and so any of these guys who ONLY have 1 month's worth of emergency funds is playing with fire, especially the more BTC that he has at risk, then the more that he is going to need a larger emergency fund, which in this case would be considering that the better practices is to have 3-6 months of an emergency fund, especially once your BTC stash starts becoming larger and subject to potentially needing to be dipped into at a time that you would not want to dip into it.  So in the above case, an emergency fund, of $3k to $6k rather than $1k would be a preferable way forward - even though of course, it could take a while to get to those levels of en emergency fund based on the income situation of the person in each of the hypothetical. .and maybe the urgency upon which he builds his BTC versus his emergency fund is going to partly be based on his situation, and surely there are going to be some ways forward that are smarter than other possible ways forward..  

Also, the more that the debt is under control, then the more options, too, and we could give examples of higher levels of debt or lower levels of debt, and the debt itself is not necessarily bad when it is being serviced at 6%, so we could have worse or better situations in which the interest rate could be higher or lower, and so the higher the rate, the more of an incentive to pay it off early (higher than 6% rates, but surely those rates that are higher than 10% would have incentives to pay off earlier rather than later, and we likely already know that there are some folks who have debts that have interest rates at 15% or higher, so those surely should be considered as priorities to pay off earlier rather than later in order to increase options), and the lower the rates such as 2-3% or even lower would have very little incentive to pay off early, especially if the trade off is to buy more BTC or not with the money that would be used to service such debt.  So even with debt there are smarter and dumber ways to deal with that in light of similar kinds of circumstances, and even if people have the right to make whatever decision that they want regarding how to proceed forward, there are some ways forward that are smarter and some ways forward that are less smart.  

The ways forward are not all equal or subjective or relative to some unclear woo woo ideas.  Do you want to talk about one or more of these examples or some variation of the examples in order to argue some kind of specific point in regards to people can choose whatever they like?  

Maybe we could get more specific in terms of describing goals that might be relevant, and if we presume that the person in each of these 5 examples currently has a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, then over the last year and a half of investing for each of them, some of them are making better progress towards increasing their wealth than others, and maybe we could even get more specific and presume that in 20-30 years the examples have preferences to reach some variation of fuck you status.. .

So maybe with level of income and expenses fuck you status might be considered to be $1 million or even quite a bit less than that in order to retain a sustainable income that is at similar levels to current levels.. .  Even with the accumulation of $500k, that might be considered to be at or near entry-level fuck you status for a person with the current income/expense levels described above, since $1 million could be considered to generate $3,333 in passive income per month, and so $500k would be presumed to generate half of that, which would be $1,667 per month.. in today's dollars, but if it takes 15-30 years to reach those levels, we might have to presume needs of reaching higher levels in terms of future dollars, even though we still can get some level of understanding even if merely projecting in today's dollars, especially if we consider that an investment into bitcoin may well have decent chances of keeping up or even outperforming the debasement of the dollar (or other fiat currencies, and even being able to outperform other investment options that might be available).

You can see my entry-level fuck you status chart as a guide to figure out how BTC accumulation goals might be aligned with personal goals, and even change some of the presumptions therein to reach other kinds of numbers that might help for projecting forward how reasonable any personal goals might be, and there likely would be better ways forward than not, once we might describe personal goals with some level of specifics rather than just throwing out vague woo woo ideas that everything is subjective, when likely everything is not subjective, especially if we are including bitcoin in the mix of what we are talking about and after we might establish what the goals might be, so then once the goals are established, then there likely would be better or worse ways to go forward to achieve such goals.  

Are there any potential goals that you would like to incorporate into such a discussion, Publictalk792?


I agree with almost everything that you are saying here, except any attempt that you seem to be making to suggest that you know when a dip of 20% - 35% or more might end up happening.  Sure it could happen now, but it also could end up that whatever downity that we are currently experiencing might not end up breaking lower than it already ha broken which is $41,509 in this current iteration.. which is currently at 15%-ish, and right around $32k would be a 35% correction, and surely all of those kinds of corrections are possible, but they may or may not be in the works right now and at this time.

I guess I will stick with my frequently repeated trope, and maybe we can go back to the 5 examples that I had already given.  I doubt that there are many folks who have been in BTC for only a short period of time (unless they already came into bitcoin with large sums) should be fucking around with attempts to trade, but they surely might want to make sure that they have systems in place to buy on dips if such dips happen, whether it is merely the ongoing employment of DCA or if they have extra funds that are sitting on the sides for buying on dips, then those are all reasonable variations of BTC accumulation that some newer bitcoiners could attempt to employ.  

Oh and remember this here thread is not about trading, so fuck off with the trading ideas, yet to the extent that you are attempting to apply them to various BTC accumulation strategies, then surely some of your same ideas could still apply, even if we are not necessarily getting specifically into trading practices (which would be a subject for a different thread).

So, even if we were to use a guy with your amount of time in BTC (according to your forum registration), we could create further examples out of how someone in a similar timeline like you would likely be in an even in a better position to play around with various strategies that deviate from more straightforwards DCA strategies.. or even combinations of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.   I don't want to go as far as creating examples 6-10 from your timeline, but we could just go with example 6.

Let's do it:

Example 6: This person has similar situations as Example 3, except that his timeline is longer going back to mid 2017, he both lump sum invested into BTC and started to DCA at $100 per week in the same way as Example 3.  Here, the lump sum amount was right around $12,000 and he got 4 BTC out of those early lump sum transactions.  Therefore, his total amount invested into BTC would be about $46.2k ($12k lump sum + $34.2k DCA) and his whole BTC holdings would be about 7.272 BTC accumulated.  (currently worth $312,696).

Sure, we could go with other variations of Example 6, yet the point is that with a longer timeline of investing into BTC with presumptive ongoing BTC accumulation, more options come about by being into bitcoin longer, even if you might have messed up in some of your techniques, but if you had been largely accumulating through much of that time, then you likely are in a better place than the person who was not in or who might have not been accumulating BTC.


There is nothing really wrong with what you are saying, even though you are mostly off-topic, and this is not a thread specifically meant for instructing newbies about bitcoin basics - even though you might be able to get some basic ideas through this thread.

We are also not talking about buying and selling in this thread, so if you either look at the OP or even if you read through some of the thread, you would likely realize that we are mainly going into various ways to accumulate bitcoin for long term investing, rather than your also mentioning of playing bitcoin for short-term profits, which is surely possible, but it is also off-topic and a bit of a distraction from this thread, since that is not much of what we are talking about, except incidentally.


I doubt that it is fair to suggest that the mere fact that many of us are considering investing into bitcoin long term (and surely acting upon such considerations) that the mere fact that it is long term automatically makes the risk minimal - yet if we are talking about long term versus short term risk, we can structure our BTC investment in ways that we are not concerned about short-term risks because we are using money that we do not need in the short-term, and surely if we believe that we need the money in the long term, then the mere fact that we are taking away short-term risk, does not automatically mean that we are also taking away long term risk, too.  

Of course, the longer that we are in bitcoin, then if BTC prices continue to go up as they have done historically, then our being in profits will buffer some of our long term risk, but we likely are not completely getting rid of the long term risk unless we are cashing out at various points along the way, and I am not even suggesting that it is necessary to cash out along the way, unless we might feel that there is some necessity to remove some of the ongoing risks of losing bitcoin's appreciating value or even losing the principle. Even if we might withdrawal all of our principle, we still could be risking whatever is left in bitcoin in terms of whether we expect it to go up in the future and we might start to rely upon that bitcoin goes up rather than down or at least goes sideways rather than down, so I doubt it is really fair to say that we are even closely removing all risks, even though we are likely removing some kinds of risks through our position size and the way we structure our BTC investment so that we are not using money that we are going to need in the shorter term.


Given the caveat of my above response in regards to that you are not completely removing risk, even if you might be ready for BTC to go to zero, I don't disagree with any of this.  By the way, I do get the sense that you may well still be expecting BTC to go up in the future, so you are content in the short-term with some level of expectation that BTC prices are going to go up in the future when you might be wanting to use the money.. and there is nothing wrong with having that kind of expectation, but you still should consider that if BTC were to go to zero or were to perform in such a way that you either do not gain value or even that you lose value in the future when you are expecting to need the money, then you are still probably taking some risks that your expectations for your future might not be met through your bitcoin investment.


Of course, I agree with you that DCA gives some better assurance that you will just spend in accordance with your cash inflows versus your expenses, so presumptively, if you are able to establish some level of steady cashflow, then you will continue to have money to buy each week or whatever might be the period in which you are applying your DCA buys.

At the same time,  there is no problem to keep some cash aside for buying on dips as long as you try to maintain some kind of balance, because one of the problems in terms of giving up on DCA is that if you ONLY have buying on dip money, then you may well end up not being able to figure out when to deploy it or even deploying it too soon and then running out of money, but if you have your DCA continuing to go, you just buy no matter what and the buying on dip merely supplements it.   So you might not even give any shits if dips happen or not, but if they do, you have various buy orders already set or planned at various price points, if the BTC price happens to dip to those points, and if it does not dip then you still have the money that you may or may not keep at those price points or to use it in other ways.

Even for me, by the time I got to 6 months or even 1 year into investing into BTC, I had already accumulated enough BTC that I was way more profitable by the BTC price going up rather than down, so even if I might end up buying on various dips, my preference was not for the dip, and so the more BTC you accumulate, the more that you are preferring the BTC price to go up rather than down, so any actual purchases that you make on the dips, are not really increasing your BTC stash in significant ways as compared with how much value it lost from going down.. but that is part of the process of building, and even in our most recent BTC price depressed time between May 2022 and October 2023, many of us might have had lost a lot of value from our BTC falling in value from 2021, but we were able to pick up some cheaper BTC during that whole period of May 2022 to October 2023, so even if it did not increase our BTC stash a lot in terms of percentage, it still became an opportunity to continue to build our BTC stack size.


Hopefully, you are able to make it through a whole cycle.. otherwise what you are saying is a BIG SO WHAT?    yes, it is comfortable for your stash to be in profits rather than in the negative, so what does that mean for you?  Are you going to be able to hold through a whole cycle, or what is going to happen in the next 4 years with you?  Maybe 3 years would be enough to proclaim that you made it through a whole cycle.. so until then.. I am having some troubles understanding how you might be talking about longterm action or even describing yourself to have made it through some kind of longer timeline?  4-10 years or longer is much longer than a year.. even if you might be setting up the groundwork for future profits, so let's see.  Do you have a plan that goes that far out or our you too busy celebrating short term gains on paper that may well contribute towards your inability to even make it a whole cycle.


You sound like a trader rather than a long term investor.  Are you sure that you are in the right thread?


Did you make a typo or what?  What is BCS method?

Indeed you are new to this forum and if not for the fact that you linked your post to the site where you got the information from it would have been reported plagiarism (copy and paste).

Everything you said here is clearly out of the discussion and it's called spam. which means if you have to be in this conversation then you should read from beginning which is probably not possible because it about 256 pages that you've missed out. so I suggest read from the first page first and know the concept of the topic which says buy the dip and hodl, you may not understand any of the abbreviation so just take your time and explore the forum.

Why should he divide the money into 3 parts?  If he continues to invest in DCA method then I can tell him that you invest in DCA method weekly. If he follows the DCA method he will continue to invest in Bitcoins regularly. And there is no problem even if the market moves down, there is no problem even if the market moves up because the main observation of the DCA method is the average calculation. If buy bitcoin during high speed like 42k current price, if buy bitcoin from here and if buy bitcoin dc method during 48k price then average price of bitcoin will be 44k budget. This is the reason why most investors prefer the Bitcoin BCS method, on average, for many reasons.

Mate, there is a strategy you will adopt if you have enough money to accumulate Bitcoin, it will give you access to accumulate Bitcoin with three strategies, such as dividing your money into three equal parts, one part to be used for accumulating Bitcoin with the DCA strategy, the second part for buying Bitcoin with a lump sum, and the third part to be used to buy Bitcoin when there is a Bitcoin dip. The strategy will allow you to buy Bitcoin if there is a Bitcoin dip and also allow you to buy Bitcoin with a lump sum if you think the BTC price will not reduce and still allow you to continue accumulating Bitcoin with your DCA strategy.