Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 492. (Read 123031 times)

But the whole point being how to avoid selling at the wrong time because every decision is price-based. IE some people would buy at $30,000 and decide to sell at $32,000 because there's "price resistance", then buying again at some price point and sell at another shortly after "because reasons".

The other point for a time-based strategy is that, during bear markets = time-based, there are more opportunities in buying actual DIPs that might not DIP much further, giving the buyer a discount than buying blindly at any price point.

The devil is still in the details Wind_FURY.... because each of us likely have time-based considerations, but also just buying on the dip in itself is a price-based consideration. 

So, even though it does not hurt to throw out those ideas, each of us are likely attempting to weigh both types of considerations and to employ those into our overall approach to BTC whether it is in regards to the way that we accumulate BTC or in regards to the extent that we might consider various points that we might sell.. and sometimes we are going to have to consider both time and price at the same time, because if the BTC price shot up to $1 million within this calendar year, it might cause some folks to take some value off the table because the BTC price seems to be unsustainable to be shooting up so rapidly, but if the BTC price slowly goes up for the next 4-10 years and maybe it reaches $1 million in that time frame, and maybe it does not, but the mere passage of time, could well contribute to changes in our own personal ways of thinking about how we might want to manage our BTC portfolio, even if the BTC price reaches the same amount of $1 million, and we are not being irrational or panicking merely because we change our strategy based on the differences in the timeline that ends up playing out in those two different scenarios that I suggested that either of which could end up happening...

Try to get the point of the post and what's being said. I'm not telling you to buy blindly at ANY price like a DCA-type of strategy. My own personal belief has always been wait for a DIP, and always bid LOW where you can find a discount.

The debate for a time-based strategy is to continue HODLing despite making a mistake and having -50% in paper-losses in your investment. Some price-based investment strategies would have already sold at a loss because "price dictates" that such a strategy should keep losses small. I think for Bitcoin that might be the wrong approach.

I am pretty sure  that I framed the topic a wee bit differently.

So if you buy at the all time high and you continue to buy, then you will likely be continuing to bring down your average cost per BTC, which will likely put you into a better position than if you were to buy at the ATH and then just sit on such purchase and wait for the BTC price to go back above it...

So a lot of people who bought at or near the all time high in the $60ks may well be close to either getting back into profits or already back in profits; however, of course, if they heavily front-loaded their investment at those higher prices, then it might take a bit longer before their BTC starts to get back into profits (assuming that they kept buying BTC in the last year and a half or even in the last 2 and a half years.

Well despite having long-term perspectives in mind while buying Bitcoin, we must still put in mind that our entry price matters a lot because the buy price is what determines the level and time of profits, this is so because those that bought their first Bitcoin at all-time high price above $55,000-60k+ are going to wait longer before the records profits compared to those that bought bitcoin at a discounted price below $16,000-20k if bitcoin make any all-time high above the last ATH.

So these are the determinant factors that we must consider while holding Bitcoin or trying to accumulate Bitcoin at whatever point, just as JayJuanGee rightly said in his previous comments, buying all the way up is better than buying at an all-time high price.

Personally, a good indicator is the 200-Weekly Moving Average. If it crashes near it, touches it, or the best = actually crashes below it, our move as plebs is simple. Buy the DIP, and then have the long term conviction to HODL.

I believe another problem many people have is they invest using a price-based strategy. That won't work if you truly want to HODL. You should have a time-based strategy.

All the same @Dictator69 if you started your bitcoin journey in few months back by your quest to learn cryptocurrencies trading which made you to pick interest in reading everything related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies,  but I will say that that space of time is not enough because to build a stable financial portfolio in bitcoin one need to put in years of consistent learning and accumulation along the way up, not only buying the dip but also allocating a substantial amount of your total cash flow to stock up your Bitcoin holding to be able to attain the level where your financial stability won't only depend on the price of Bitcoin but also having other sources for cashflow that can sustain you during any market condition that may come along the line.

You are explaining it a bit different than me, but it could be that we are mostly understanding what each other is saying.

I am not sure if it might not be worth emphasizing a bit better what I mean, though.

Of course, this thread is about bitcoin, so it might not be too good of an idea to get too distracted into talking about various shitcoins, including which ones might be worth investing into, if any of them.

So in this thread, we are already presuming that bitcoin has a strong long term investment thesis.. so part of the reason that you want to invest into bitcoin is that you are considering that it has decently good chances of going up in value with the passage of time, and that likely it will perform better than other investments that you have.. or at least you are willing to take those kinds of chances, even though surely there are not any guarantees in terms of whether bitcoin will actually end up outperforming other investments, but if it is at least going up in value, then it still could end up paying off - especially if you have an investment timeline that might be 4-10 years or longer, so it may not be worth it to be attempting to trade in and out of bitcoin, if you consider that 4-10 years or longer down the road it will be worth more than it is today (including accounting for cost of living changes too)..

So if you are coming into bitcoin, you might come to some kind of a determination regarding what kind of a budget that you have and perhaps how long it might take you to accumulate enough bitcoin to reach your target accumulation levels.

When your goals are to accumulate bitcoin, the best ways to do it is DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.   HODL does not really help you to accumulate more BTC, but it might help you in terms of NOT selling merely because you are worried about bitcoin prices in the short-term.

The most pure forms of DCA'ing would just involve a kind of regular buying of BTC, perhaps on a weekly or a monthly basis and not necessarily trying to figure out whether BTC is in a dip or if it will dip more in the future.  Therefore, DCA buying would just be regular buying that is more based upon how much cash that you have in your budget and that you are able to buy on a regular basis.

Of course, some people try to time their buys in order to take advantage of potential dips, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as you are not prejudicing yourself out of bitcoin because you end up waiting too long before buying.. but surely, there are ways that you might be able to both buy BTC regularly and also to keep some money on the sidelines in order that you might be able to buy more BTC if the BTC price happens to dip.

The longer that you are in BTC, then the more likely you would have built a stash of BTC, so the longer that you are into BTC, then maybe the more that you would be wanting the BTC price to go up, even though surely sometimes you can be advantaged to be able to have BTC price dips that would allow you to buy more BTC with the same amount of dollars.

I have mentioned in several posts that if you are merely saving 10% of your income, it could take you 10 years, just to put away 1 year's income, so of course, if you are able to put away more or if you can get better returns on the amount that you had put away, then your investment portfolio would have greater chances to reach higher amounts, and even considering that many people believe that it takes 20-30x of your annual cost requirements to really get to a kind of fuck you status in which you are able to start to live off of the interest from your investment portfolio (presuming that it has reached a fair value that could be assessed somewhere in the 20x to 30x size of your annual living expenses requirements).

Many people never reach fuck you status, even though you still can live quite well, even if you do not reach fuck you status and your bitcoin (or other aspects) of your investment portfolio might reach some kind of size that is maybe between 1x of your annual living expenses and 20x.. which are various levels prior to officially reaching fuck you status.

If you want to see some of my other discussion on the topic of fuck you status, then my investment thread contains quite a bit of discussion on the topic.


The best place to start is at the beginning - which is modestly, and making sure that you have your shit together with other aspects of your finances and psychology.  If you figure out your own situation, then you are more likely to be capable of investing in a way that is "as aggressive as you can be" without going overboard because you have your budget and your psychology in such order that you are able to deal with your monthly expenses including having sufficient funds for emergency expenses, too.


Of course, if you are ONLY able to earn minimum wage, then it could take a long time to accumulate wealth - even though surely, we know that you might not even need 1 whole BTC in order to still be able to profit stupendously from bitcoin.   Having a goal to achieve 1 BTC is no longer very realistic for a lot of people around the world who have not already accumulated a significant amount of BTC.

You have to figure out BTC accumulation targets that are meaningful for you, and surely once you reach those targets, then you may well be inspired to continue to build and to set higher BTC accumulation targets for yourself... So maybe your first target might be to reach 1 million satoshis.. and then maybe 2.1 million satoshis, and then maybe 10 million satoshis.. and then to be careful to make sure that you secure your bitcoin in such ways that you are NOT going to lose them or that you have less chances to lose any of them... even though sometimes there still can be costs that are involved in buying/selling satoshis and also costs involved in moving them around or sometimes you might feel that you need to purchase somethings like hardware or incur other kinds of costs in order to feel comfortable about the security of your bitcoin.


Well?  Those kinds of decisions are ones that each of us have to make, and countries do not always make rules that are in the best interest of their citizens, and sometimes they make surprise rules.   No one can tell you exactly whether you might interpret the rules differently or you might consider that you have rights in terms of your ability to both secure and to communicate value, and so you might consider that the overreaching aspects of some rules (or that there are some government officials who do not sufficiently understand that they are overreaching in their authority).. and some people might choose to take the safe route to save money in their own local currency (which seems to be the behavior that the government officials are wanting to inspire you to do), but your saving (or attempting to save) in your own local currency ends up fucking you over royally.. since there are some currencies that really suck in terms of their ability to hold much if any value, especially when compared with bitcoin, and so if you save in your local currency for 10 years, you might have 1/100th the amount of value that you would have had in bitcoin... and yeah, there are no guarantees regarding how any of this will work out, and surely it is better to still be alive and to be free rather than being locked up or to be put to death by your government.. so no one can really make those kinds of choices for you in regards to weighing the trade offs and/or figuring out if you might end up getting trapped into various inferior investments because you are afraid (or you misunderstand) your abilities (or rights) to actually invest in bitcoin.

In 2022, in the forum, we even have had members who had been pumping and talking great about their abilities to invest in US Government IBonds because that financial product was available for US citizens and earned some high rate of interest - like 9% or some other alluring amount, but buying that product in late 2022 when BTC prices were around $16k would not have had been a very smart purchase, especially compared to bitcoin, including that bitcoin has already nearly doubled it's price in less than a year, and those IBonds have several tricks to them in terms of when the interest even starts to be earned and how long that value has to be locked up in them without suffering penalties for withdrawal or early withdrawal.. so they are not even as good as bitcoin, even though people were tricked into such products .. and they were not told that bitcoin was banned, but even the US Government officials are not honest in their communications and frequently try to imply that bitcoin is bad or evil, and if you go along with the proclamations (and advices) of your government officials, then you are likely going to end up screwing yourself up in terms of your own finances in such a way that you might never be able to recover from how much you end up either losing or failing to be able to earn because of the price movements of BTC and other products can sometimes move quickly and in such a way that you will never end up getting those lower prices again.. never ever again.  We have seen it many times.

Something similar happened in China in late 2016.  A lot of Chinese exchanges locked up the value of their citizens in the various Chinese exchanges until they KYC'd or whatever other bullshit that they were supposed to do, and a lot of those citizens got screwed out of the whole 2017 bull run.. and perhaps even Chinese officials thought that they were going to be able to discourage the BTC price from going up, but bitcoin did not give any shits about what the chinese thought about bitcoin in 2016, 2017 or any time thereafter, and really the BTC never came even close to correcting back down to those sub $1k or even prices around $1k or $2k at later points of time in 2018 or thereafter the lowest corrections were down to the lower $3ks and that level of BTC price correction did not even last for very long.


You are not the ONLY one who suffers from receiving my relatively long responses.  You can glance through random samples of my post history and see that I have tendencies that go back all the way to the beginning of my forum membership for long responses.

Yeah, i am really new to this forum, but i am not new to bitcoin. Few months ago, i was interested in making money by doing trading. So, i started to spend some time in watching anything related to cryptocurrency either its BTC or Alts. So, i came to know that, before investing in BTC, i should be prepare for loss too, and i should have great analyzing skills which i definitely lack and i came to see many charts which makes no sense. But then i came to know about trading and holding. And there i knew, holding is for me. And i think in your last paragraph, you also tried to explain that holding or accumulating BTC is better than buying on dips. Like, means the same as trading. Someone buying at dips looking for short term gains while holder do'nt do that.

And i get it, from quite some time, i try to accumulate BTC but not able to do that. Many reasons don't know where to start. Well, one reason is to accumulate 1 BTC i need 8,495 days. According to stompix. Other is Crypto is ban in my country, so i think i should save some money in my local currency, so that when the bans will be lifted i could buy some BTC. I know i can still buy it but i don't want any issues. so, neat and clean is best for everyone.

Do you often right that long replies or its just me who needs that much explanation. Feeling like a blank slate. 

You are not necessarily wrong, but I am saying something a bit different than what you seem to be saying.

I am saying buy in accordance with your situation, and if you do not have much if any BTC, then you likely need to buy regularly, and you likely do not need to wait for any dip in order to buy because you need to first get to a point in which you have bought enough BTC that you are adequately prepared for UP.  Depending on how much you are investing regularly, it could take years, and years and years before you start to feel that you have built a large enough stack that you can therefore start to supplement your strategy by buying on dips or even moving away from regular buying and instead buying on dips.


That's true.  Once you start to incorporate a "buying on dips" strategy, you can budget for various dip amounts - however, we know that buying on dips can both be a moving target in terms of how much the dip goes down and how long it lasts, but it also can be a moving target in terms of how much money that you might have coming in and also if you might get some surprise amounts coming in that might adjust to the upside or the downside.

You can structure your buys and even your changes to your buys in ways that are frequent  (such as weekly reviewing where your buys are at) or even a bit less active such as monthly or quarterly, and sure if your buy orders are tending to fill more frequently, then you may well end up triggering your needs to review or to make changes based on how frequently they are getting filled and whether their getting filled might end up affecting your needs to make adjustments to some kind of a preexisting plan that you had been employing.


That's true.  Your Psychology will likely improve from your buys and also whether your plan seems to be resulting in profits or even expectations of profits, even if there may have been some set backs along the way.  Sometimes it can take several years before your portfolio is actually in profits, so even if you are getting buys that are cheaper and cheaper, sometimes there can be concerns and worries about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and if you are believe that you are becoming overly concerned, you may well have to consider whether you need to either reduce the amount that you are investing or to change the way that you are investing in order to contribute towards your feeling better... and in that regard, sometimes merely setting buy orders (or changing buy orders placements and amounts) can contribute towards improvements in psychological well-being.


If you had not noticed, this thread is attempting to address long-term BTC investing, so considering target prices seems to be a different subject.. and if you are referring to short-term target prices, then you are likely referring to trading rather than long term investing... which is also not the thrust of this thread..


It seems that one of the points I was making is in regards to the bullish effect on BTC prices currently because of the application of Blackrock and then several amendments to other ETF applications, so in that regard, we do not necessarily need to wait for further expiration dates in order for whatever bullish effect to be playing out.

Also, I don't have any strong predictions in regards to which direction the BTC price might go in shorter-term timeframes, but I do believe that each of us should be attempting to prepare for either BTC price direction - so of course, if we have been in BTC for a decently long time, then we likely would already either have our BTC accumulation plan in place or maybe we have mostly already accumulated BTC, and we might be supplementing our BTC accumulation plan to the extent that dips occur and the extent to which we already have accumulated "enough" BTC could affect how far that we would need the BTC price to fall before picking up further BTC.

I am also of the belief that people who have not spent a lot of time in BTC, should mostly be erroring in the side of buying BTC regularly, and the extent to which the BTC price might go down or up in the short term might not even affect such a persons regularly BTC buying schedule, even though that person still might have extra cash that s/he is holding in reserves in order to have prepared in the event that the BTC price drops below certain price points, and if the BTC price does not drop s/he might also have a plan that s/he uses a certain amount of dollars to buy BTC regularly (such as weekly) no matter what the BTC price.

You are pretty new to this forum Dictator69, and so I am not sure if I can presume that you are also somewhat new to bitcoin, but it can take many years of regular bitcoin stacking (and accumulating) depending on if you are able to draw from other investments (to accelerate your lump sum investments into BTC) or if you merely have to rely upon cashflows that might only allow you to buy small amounts of BTC per week.. such as $100 per week or something like that, and surely I know that in some parts of the world, people might barely be able to buy $10 per week from their cashflows - especially if they have not otherwise built an investment portfolio that they can reallocate into bitcoin.

Anyhow, even though surely there can be some attempts to buy on dips, even for newbies, but I doubt that buying on dips is as important as just regularly buying until you get your BTC (and/or investment) portfolio up to a certainly large enough size that you start to feel that you are sufficiently prepared for BTC to go up, so that you might not have to continue to employ regular buys but you have the luxury of considering buying on dips as a means to either supplement or in some cases to replace the practice of regularly buying BTC.

Thanks a lot for helping, i didn't have the authority to post image currently, so i posted source link too. And definitely these ETFs are putting some pressure on BTC price. If i am not wrong, then i think you are preferring to Dates. Like in the columns of Next Deadline and Final Deadline. We can see final deadline of most of the ETFs are in 2024 and that exactly when the Halving will start.

Now i started to doubt that BTC price might fall to $25k too. Because till 2024 we might not see any good news like ETFs and other so till then we might see more dumps. Well, that's good news for those who still didn't took entry but bad for those who took entry at current market price.

Bitcoin is always at the top of the crypto market and the value of altcoins depends on the price of bitcoin. As technology and the financial system change, the use of bitcoin will continue to grow and develop. Scams have increased with the rise in bitcoin prices but it is important for individuals to carefully consider the risks and benefits of investing and do their own research before making an investment decision.

Crypto risks are high but, it's true, a challenging simulation and operating plan. Yes. Many big Institutions have entered, one of them is Silvergate Bank, and MSTR have made a deal if I'm not mistaken. another sign that rate hikes will stop and stabilize in 2023. Yes. I will save this post and visit it again on December 25, 2025.

I agree with you. No one can predict for sure where the bottom of BTC will be. In my opinion, you should determine where your buy zone is, when the btc price reaches the target price area you start buying. You can divide into many buy zones with different weights. When you buy BTC at a good price, your psychology will be very stable when the price fluctuates up and down. And you will hold BTC to the target price you expect.

I cited your post to show your image - but your image cut off some of the content.. so I reposted the full image from the twitter link that you provided.



This kind of news in regards to so many ETF applications pending should have some kind of upwards pressures on the BTC price, so if we are currently getting BTC price movement in the opposite direction, then it seems like good ideas to buy at various price points - and none of us can really know how much further the BTC price might dip.. or even if it is done dipping.  If you do not have much if any BTC at all, then likely you should be erroring in the side of buying regularly rather than waiting for lower BTC prices, but if you have been buying BTC in the sub $35k territories, and even down into the sub-$20k territories for the last 15 months or so, then you might not feel as much urgency to buy BTC on the relatively smaller dips that are currently happening and bringing us down from $32k into the sub-$29k prices, so far...

At the same time, it could be a bit greedy to completely wait for prices below $27k, since the 200-week moving average is currently at $27k, so sub $27k may or may not happen.. and if sub $27k does happen, then maybe the BTC price would not stay there for very long.. and I am not even claiming to have any certainties regarding if the BTC price will continue to go down or if it might be done going down.

Haha, An ETF investor be like hey broo did you invested in BRRR. . the ticker names are funny though, Well the other company ARK shares have a good ticker name (AKRB) which is better, but this BRRR doesn't make any sense. I doubt why would traditionally people about many news outlets are talking about. Saying these are the main targeted audience of these upcoming ETFs. Because when companies will get registered via governments such people will start to invest in it.

post link
I hope those traditional and well sophisticated people like this ticker BRRR I should make some meme on it.

That's what I said before where we only want to discuss with the investments we make in Bitcoin and not with coins. Instead of it being a ridiculous thing for some people who saw our history before. Well a person can change and that's the difference it makes. I don't know after that I was no longer interested in those ridiculous words. Now in this case someone who previously chose to invest in altcoins and they went to Bitcoin because they saw the potential that Bitcoin had more promising than altcoins. Is it wrong.
 #Maybe that was my reply on the previous page.

Now, seeing this condition, I still stick to my position, namely buying in stages. But yes, there are many obstacles that occur both in terms of our financial aspects that we have to adjust. Also there are some people who support us and also some who mock us. So in this case you invest for yourself and not for others. let's just say the person who thinks you failed at this time will regret it later when you get a big multiplier in the Bitcoin investment that you have done long ago. Keep it up and keep buying.

but we don't accept altcoins in this thread, you can discuss it on the altcoin discussion board, here we discuss bitcoin and the strategy for buying it, even if you have the same preference for the strategy mechanism for buying altcoins, we don't care about that.

their fraud has become a trauma to the market which makes it always down, don't you remember many incidents about it?, bitcoin is the main one and has never shifted its position to be king in the market until today, while altcoins always rotate positions then become extinguished as time goes by time.

You're not getting the point. They are scams because most of those, to be political correct let's call them "altcoins", do something but they're not truly what they are claimed to be. IE most of them are not truly decentralized, and their developers know it, but they will never admit it.

On a lighter topic, Valkyrie's ETF will be listed under the ticker "BRRR". Hahaha.

To be more careful, we need to understand that this other cryptocurrencies inventors, operators or project developers also rely on bitcoin as their solid investment background asset that funds the other projects they developed, so why should a common man like we made a decision to invest with them when we have the direct link to invest with bitcoin and hodl thesame way others are making their profits from it.



There's no way he can ever regret this kind of decision made because he will realized far beyond what other crypto investors are having, even the other physical assets we have couldn't be as this profitable all because of the right timing for bullrun after next year halving.