Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 493. (Read 123031 times)

We're talking ONLY about Bitcoin in this topic. Why? Because I, personally/no offense, consider 99% of the projects from the "wider crypto community" to be scams.

OK, for your argument, let's have an experiment. Let's pretend that you are the worst investor in the world and bought Bitcoin during different parts of the crash, and your average price is $30,250 = Today's price. You are HODLing starting NOW.

Bookmark this post and visit it again on December 25, 2025. Merry Christmas.

You have to figure out a strategy that works for you.

If you are earlier in your bitcoin journey, then likely you should just be buying bitcoin regularly within your budget, and not fucking around with trying to figure out if there is a dip or not a dip.  In other words, figuring out the dip is likely a position of someone who is already mostly secure in the various positions of their investment portfolio, especially including having comfort with how much bitcoin that they have.

After you have started to accumulate some bitcoin, you might be able to figure out points in time in which you start to feel that you have enough, or that you want to supplement your buying by trying to time some aspects of a dip within perhaps certain quantities or maybe within certain timelines, because also presumably you have cashflow coming in on a regular basis as well that would then likely figure into how much extra (disposable) cash that you have available to you at that particular time (or various times coming into the future, you would be able to foresee how much cashflow that you have coming in and the arrival of those cashflows would thereafter also end up affecting your budget).



Yes.. for sure you have to account for BTC price history and where we are at and also try to identify if you have some ideas about momentum, direction and/or if any changes might be coming in the price direction, and surely the 80% or more price drops are also measuring from the top to the bottom, and we are in the middle of such correction of previous price drop from $69k to $15,479....

Don't be too greedy waiting for an 80% price dip from here.. or even getting back to the low point of this particular cycle, when even though those are not zero probability events, they are also probably not very likely, either.

It could be possible that we will never see below $30k again, but of course, sub $30k is close to our current price since the price is currently $30,400 as I type this post.  .. and so the further down you go, $28.5k, or $26k or $24k or $20k, the more difficult it is likely to be that we would reach each of those price targets, so you likely would be a bit of a fool if you are too busy preparing for down and failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in the event that down does not happen and even down to the level that you might be expecting to happen.

If you are brand new to bitcoin, and you have $12k over the next 6 months, but some of that you have currently available, maybe you would divide that into three and buy $4k immediately, DCA with the other $4k and then figure out some kind of a buying on dip plan iwth the remaining $4k, and how far you plan for your buys on the way down (and in what increments) would be a personal question, and again, I would not consider it too wise to fuck around with all or nothing strategies, but bit you have some budget and you have already put some value into BTC, then you would have more freedoms to take chances on the remaining portion to be able to buy at lower BTC prices, while realizing at the same time that the lower prices may well not end up happening, and then questioning yourself if you would be o.k. with that result or would that result cause you to panic and to end up buying while the BTC price is going up rather than your ability to figure out a BTC buying plan that is more comfortable and that you can live with whichever way that the BTC price ends up moving.


I cannot disagree with these points.


I doubt that anyone is going to completely catch the bottom, but hey do what you like.  And regarding selling, this thread is not about selling but instead about long term holding.  If you want to talk about selling, take that shit somewhere else... to some other thread.


You are all over the place with these questions.  So we had a bottom in November 2022 of $15,479, but the BTC price shot up to $32k, and we have been mostly bouncing around in the upper $20ks for 6months, with a few corrections along the way.  So do you want to talk about the last 6 months and whether the BTC price is going to correct again?  How does anyone know those kinds of things?  Part of the reason for preparing for either BTC price direction in terms of your budget and your psychology is so that you are not going to be disappointed no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term, especially if you cannot really know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term.  You seem to be trying to suggest that there is some way to have some kind of confidence regarding BTC short-term price direction, which seems to be a trading mindset rather than long term investing, which is the topic of this thread.


We are not talking about any of those traditional asset classes, including that bitcoin is not a mature asset class, and it also is likely not correlated to those markets and also there are likely dynamics in bitcoin that include exponential s-curve adoption... that will likely cause you to get fucked, and even more fucked then you seem to be trying to be because you are failing/refusing to appreciate bitcoin for what it is and trying to be smart and act like you know about markets, and applying those same ideas to bitcoin.

Good luck with that, you are going to need it.. even if you might end up being correct in the short term, if you fail/refuse to stock up on bitcoin for the long term or have long term ideas about it, then you likely are going to be having a hard time down the road.. whether that is a few years from now or maybe 6-10 years from now or some other time period in which you realize that you don't have many or any bitcoin, and you sufficiently knew about bitcoin but you failed to stack sats. and you fucked around with trading bitcoin (and valuing it in dollars) rather than really recognizing its world changing dynamics, its greatest wealth transfer in history dynamics and its paradigm shifting dynamics.

Probably you need to study bitcoin a bit more, rather than either studying trading strategies or trying to spread information about trading strategies, when you aren't even on topic here because you are missing some presumptions of this thread which is that within this thread, we are already presuming bitcoin to be a good long term investment - and that is why we are not talking about selling and/or trading (which seems to be your perspective).


We are not talking about shitcoins here.  We are talking about bitcoin.  Do you know what is bitcoin?

Why are you using the term cryptocurrencies?  We are not talking about that in this thread.


Sure... We know that bottom fishing can go on in any market, but so what?  Also focus on bitcoin rather than all of the various bullshit related to some kind of an amorphous concept such as Cryptocurrencies, since there are 20,000 or more cryptocurrencies, and some of those markets are more liquid than others...

So even we focus specifically on bitcoin, bitcoin has a lot of markets within it, and surely there are various financial tools that are being developed, which could also cause some of those folks to get reckt when the markets are not very regulated and perhaps the third party offering the service does not have the coins that it claims to have.. so again, instead of speaking broadly, narrow your analysis down to bitcoin if you feel that you have some points that you want to make regarding likely manipulations that might be happening, in either price direction (which you seem to be wanting to focus on manipulation in the downwards direction).. 


You sound distracted.

Which is the head and which is the tail?    does the head wag the tail or does the tail wag the dog?

Do you have any clues about that?

If we are considering what kinds indicators or what kinds of happenings in the world or what kinds of things potentially affect bitcoin prices, I thing that folks are going to get quite lost if they get overly focused on shitcoins, even if there might be short term price affects that are caused (or contributed) from various shitcoins, but if we are considering bitcoin as a long term investment, then why get distracted with that nonsense - including short-term BTC price moves that might come from those kinds of things - except surely we are talking about the possibilities of taking advantage of BTC price dips that might come from a variety factors and for a variety of reasons, including things happening in shitcoins, so then maybe we might have some buy orders at various price locations or maybe we are planning to execute our buy orders manually at various price points, if they were to occur.


You spend a lot of time focusing on whether bitcoin has bottomed, and now you are determining that it has bottomed.  Go figure?

Still seems good to prepare for either price direction.. and how much you might have in your budget for buying on various dips and at what price levels should be something that people can decide... so for example, if someone (from my earlier example) has something like $4k in cash in his/her budget for buying BTC on dips, and if s/he already bought bitcoin, then maybe he would have buy orders down every $500, and whether s/he goes down to $28k or $26k or $20k could affect how much s/he sets at each of the increments.



Fuck shitcoins.. we are not talking about which ones might be less shitty than others.. so take that nonsense somewhere else, it is not related to this thread.

I believe that it is not a very realistic scenario that people who recognize and appreciate bitcoin at $50k or more to be a good investment, to lump sum into bitcoin and to just sit on their hands for the next year or two and wait to be back in profits.  Yeah sure some people gamble like that, but it does not seem to be a very smart position to just lump sum in and then fail/refuse to buy any more BTC until getting back into profits, so in that regard, if they continue to buy, then their average price per BTC should end up coming down.. even though the specific BTC that they bought at or near the top would still have those high prices that will take a while for those specific BTC to get back into profits (if they ever do).. by the way, if you keep buying BTC in the past couple of years, you do not have to have all of your coins to get into profits in order to profit from your investment by bringing down your average cost per BTC by continuing to buy at prices that are lower than your average purchase price and to continue to bring down your average cost per BTC.


Yeah.. but newbies do not necessarily need to figure out all of the particulars to bitcoin in order to continue to invest in DCA kinds of ways and to have good chances of profiting in the long run.  DCA is meant to be a strategy that anyone can use, whether they know anything about bitcoin or know nothing about bitcoin, and an ongoing DCA practice is likely going to give options to people but surely how profitable they are or how long it takes to get into profits or even how long that they choose to follow such DCA practices can surely vary between people.

What you said @JayJuanGee here is right because so many investors who never understood Bitcoin movement and market characteristics in terms of volatility and unpredictability of bitcoin price have come into Bitcoin when the price was at All time high and at that have to wait for a long time for the price of Bitcoin to recover back to the purchase price and also wait longer to see profits so to time the long term bitcoin holding slogans may seem to them as an unending journey.
Bitcoin vs DCA approach seems to be the best safe ride strategy but for that to be highly beneficial one need to have a long run-off knowledge of Bitcoin and in-depth experience of how the market reacts to various characteristic that influences the price at some point and that is not what a newbie investor can do.

Buy when the market falls deeply, but how much is deep? Buying at the bottom is also risky, as a drop in prices could be a sign that the market is about to crash. It has also adjusted to over 80% in the past. Therefore, you have to determine which price zone is attractive enough to buy. As for where the bottom is, we can't guess. Let's discuss whether to catch the bottom or not and when the bottom is right, at what price will you sell? Do you buy a valuable asset when it falls below the previous price, but is that the final bottom or will the price continue to fall and establish a new low? For asset classes such as stocks, real estate, gold... that have been around for a long time and are popular in the market, bottom fishing is very popular and it has resistances that are hard to break. However, with a new and volatile market like cryptocurrencies, bottom fishing can bring many risks because the market size is not too large, so some sharks can manipulate the market and break resistances. so you have to be very careful when catching the bottom in this market. Should I catch the bottom of altcoins or the bottom of BTC? In my opinion, BTC should only be bottomed because it has been joined by many large organizations, appeared the earliest and is held by many organizations and individuals, so it cannot collapse. As for Altcoins, there are already many coins with a value of 0. Or with coins in the top 20, you can catch the bottom.
After successfully catching the bottom, when will you sell them? That is a very difficult question to answer.

It is still possible for this to happen, but in other conditions we will confuse ourselves when making some month-end notes for example because there are 2 subdivisions for reserve funds, namely for investing and unexpected needs.
But as I said earlier, it doesn't matter if you do something like this because the expenses are clearly for investing, it's just that there may be some conditions that will definitely make yourself a little dizzy in recapitulating expense records.

Actually, in this case I'm probably talking more about the price increase. Indeed ATH is a very good thing but when talking about DCA for example like when bitcoin touched the price of $15k a few months ago and doing DCA starting from there, then for now with the increase in bitcoin we have also benefited and indirectly when we have a strategy for DCA then for the current price we have benefited in terms of investment.
But indeed waiting for the new ATH is also not a problem as long as you can afford it but when talking about profit in my opinion when we return to the context of DCA then indeed at this time it is also profitable and ATH is just another goal to make the profit even greater.

👍

But if a newbie asks for advice like those people in the Trading subforum, just tell them the truth that 90% of "traders" lose their money to the 10% of traders who "participate" in the market. I keep on repeating, how can plebs like us profit consistently from well-capitalized traders with their armies of bots? We simply can't!

Furthermore, time for a shower thought. We know the macro-economics and the geo-political side of things remain to be in a bad situation. What if during 2024, the recession arrives causing everything to crash just like 2020 when the pandemic happened.



Possible?

None of us can exactly choose the time in which we learn about bitcoin or that we figure it out, and there were people who thought that bitcoin would never go below $50k again.. which was not even a non-zero possibility.

So if we got into bitcoin in 2021, when prices were largely between $40k and $60k, one of the easiest things would have been to attempt to pace your accumulation of BTC.. and sure, it is possible that any of us might have had tried to front load our investment (to the extent that we might have had disposable capital that we would have had been able to invest at that time), and even if we were to have had made some larger front loading investments, it would have had still been prudent to keep a DCA and buying on dip plan.. which is almost the easiest of paths rather than fucking around with thoughts of selling and buying lower... or just HODLing without doing anything for 2-3 years or however long it might take to get back to profitability for those earlier purchased coins.

Surely none of us would have been buying between $40k and $60k and considering that it to have had been realistic for the BTC price to go down from our buying price point, yet we still would have had been able to look at the various charts and we would have seen that bitcoin spent a considerable amount of time in sub $10k prices for a lot of the time between early 2018 and even late 2020, so even though there had been price spikes above $10k, a decently large portion of that time period had BTC prices below $10k  (and buying during that time would have had gotten quite a few people with average BTC prices below $10k) - so even if we came into BTC in 2021 with BTC prices between $40k and $60k, we could have looked at the charts and appreciated that we might not want to go "all in" but instead to have some hedging abilities. and maybe some abilities to appreciate that the BTC price could go in either direction - even if we thought that it was more inclined to go up rather than down.. but then we ended up being wrong about that.

So even if we might have started to buy BTC in terms of the first BTC price spike in early 2021, we would currently be close to break even in terms of our costs per BTC as long as we continued to buy - so for example buying $100 per week starting on March 1, 2021 would have ended with $12,300 invested up until now and nearly 0.42 BTC accumulated. 

It is surely possible that instead of DCA buying, we might have had front-loaded our investment in the beginning by doing some kind of a lump sum investment, and that would have caused our average price per BTC to be higher, but  it still seems that currently we would be moving towards getting closer to break-even in terms of the value of our investment, and sure maybe in the end, it is not the easiest to accomplish a kind of ongoing buying while we are building our stake in BTC, but it does seem to be amongst the better (if not the best) of paths when we have already assessed BTC as a good long term investment.. so if we were to have had perceived BTC as a good investment when it's prices were between $40k and $60k, then we should have considered it to have had been an even better investment when the price dropped below $20k (including down to $15,479 and staying in that price area for a couple of months).. and so even now we may well be considering BTC to be a decently good investment around $30k. and still bringing down our average cost per BTC if we are buying now and maybe our average cost per BTC might still be a bit higher than current prices.


I think that you phrased that weirdly ajiz138, and I think that it is problematic to be counting on a new ATH in order to be profitable, so part of the reason to DCA into bitcoin, is to bring down your average cost per BTC, so you would not even necessarily need an ATH again in order to be profitable... so if someone had been investing in bitcoin for more than 2 years (like my case above starting on March 1, 2021), then if they are close to having their BTC costs being around $30k, then if BTC goes up to $50k, then their BTC holdings become around 66% in profits...

Of course, we feel better when our BTC is in profits rather than it being in the negative, but we still likely need to be careful in terms of expecting too much or even expecting that we are going to sell our BTC for dollars, because holding dollars is likely a losing proposition, even if we know that our bitcoin holdings are going to continue to fluctuate greatly in terms of their dollar value.

In the two holiday weekend there could be a sell-off, even if it's small. I myself am still waiting and seeing the market starting from Friday to next Monday. If conditions allow, place a bid. yes, a bit far. just in case there is a further correction of short-term action effects. However, BTC seen from the chart started crawling up from $ 29. 700 and is now up a meager $30,290.

There is no instant profit, they have to go through several processes where they can be patient waiting for the price to recover again, with people who have bought high prices and are not strong enough to decline, usually they will leave in the middle of the road and it is better to sell at a low price than at a high price that he bought, I know enough that the person is not patient enough on his fundamentals.

That's the wrong way people think to buy to get rich, in essence we have to know how the market moves and with what pattern to apply, for example making an entry when the price is correcting or bearish, with hasty decisions they will regret a little later.

I think it's a lot when they buy in the price range of 40k - 60k expecting a high price but instead the price is getting corrected and the deepest fall is $ 16K, for people who survive in any situation he will still be a winner because bitcoin will always reach ATH again when it cycles 4 years have passed, and now it's a little more to get past that, while people who are still holding on now will definitely continue to accumulate and will not survive with bitcoins that have high prices, so they will maximize profits by buying by means of the DCA strategy.

There are really many such people. If you think that everyone who bought bitcoin made a profit, then you are wrong. There are a lot of people who bought at 40k, 50k, 60k and even higher, but later on they sold in a bear market to save some of their money because fear has kept them from hold their coin to this day.

Just buying and getting rich will not work, you need to be able to choose a good entry point so that later fear does not force you to make rash decisions.

On the other hand, there are those who bought bitcoin at 40k - 60k and still hold it and perhaps continue to buy and average the purchase price, this is also not so simple and only those who really believe in bitcoin will do it. I think such investors have a very good chance of surviving the bear market and making a profit in the new bull market.

I think when you still have 50% reserve budget of the total value of your investment, then your financial situation will not be too risky even if you get a few surprises about unexpected expenses. I've always wanted financial management that way, but so far I've only had 20% of the total investment value as a reserve budget.

So in essence, have a spare budget regardless of whether you can get it equal to the value of your investment or maybe less. If you have a reserve budget higher than your total investment value, then reinvest with the same strategy.

It can be a good thing when you can allocate a few percent of your income to be in bitcoin.
But as you said before, everyone has their own thoughts and strategies, when doing it with spare money as long as it doesn't interfere then I think it's also good, it's just that this should pay attention to more conditions where when there are unexpected needs then they should have some policies to make their finances not disturbed in terms of plans.
But when it comes to comparison then I prefer your way with budgeting beforehand apart from we know how much we spend on investment, unexpected needs can be overcome because there is an allocation there in financial management.

Sounds good, of course much more recommended than selling bitcoins for altcoin. Buy and hold for the long term and ignore price volatility is what many recommend when you want to get good returns in the future. You are still required to manage everything including living expenses, health costs and the like, and that's why budget diversification must still be an important part of maintaining this investment plan.

Regarding the target, there is a lot of potential to set it at a higher price in the next few years. Halvings seem to increase the value of bitcoin naturally due to supply and demand factors, but we never know where the ATH is highest. I believe we have to get out of a certain position and build again, but not for everyone who has a different mindset and investment plan.

That's the problem. As I said in the previous article, I also do not prohibit if someone really wants that but in other conditions of course in this case we must be aware of our capacity and if you are not able to do that then do not have high expectations, especially doing crazy things like exchanging bitcoin and switching to altcoins in the hope of higher returns after that you can buy bitcoin again with a larger amount of money.
The method sounds quite simple but the problem is that it is clearly difficult and even tends to be undoable for people who do not have the ability to do it.
I am a lazy person and don't really want to waste time with several candles and momentum expectations every day so with conditions like this I prefer to buy bitcoin and wait for it like for several conditions and my target as before.

Everybody has their own strategy but in this context I think when you use your spare money, isn't it a deterrent for unexpected needs?
I personally prefer when budgeting every monthly income to be used as investment money. Because in my opinion when using spare money then this possibility can slightly hamper when there are urgent needs but when budgeted in advance to invest, for example like 10 percent every month then apart from you can know how much your capital is to invest, you can also use your spare money for other purposes such as unexpected needs or prepare to face some chaos such as inflation etc.

All investments are risky, including bitcoin. If someone among them says that investing in bitcoin is not risky, then it is simply nonsense. You should also know that investment risk tolerance varies from one investor to another and you cannot always blame one of them when you experience a loss or the strategy does not go as expected.

Nobody's perfect, but rest assured every one of them do it for a purpose; they expect profit. Their weakness is; don't do the analysis or maybe not be able to do it, but the goal is the same.

Doan9269, the best advice for you is; fix punctuation. I honestly have a hard time finding 1 point out of 636 words without spaces. 

Yeah, who wouldn't want to have a good sleep at night knowing that your bitcoin is safe in your wallet and that there are no potential dump happening when you are in bed.

So most likely those who are selling their bitcoin to altcoin would lose their insanity,  . But for those who are old enough or have matured on their crypto investments, we all know that bitcoin is the only coin that we should buy and then HODL for a long time.

To make it more plain and clear, it's not that bitcoin investment does not have it own risk, but when compared to other cryptocurrencies, you could discover it's nothing besides the risk those ones gives, some have invested in bitcoin but make losses as the end because they never thought of adopting a particular profitable strategy to use while investing, some don't know when to enter and exit, some cannot speculate among others, but the worst encounter one could have with alts is to invest on shitcoin unknowingly, in which there are many of them in cryptocurrency today, this make it more important for us to know that bitcoin is the most reliable investment one can hodl and earn incentives over time far better than risking other cryptocurrencies for hodl.

That's true, but if a person has the skills and the capital to trade for copper, then return with more diamonds, why not make the trade?

If Bitcoin is to be money, use it as money. HODL it, trade it, spend it, lose it, earn it.

Personally, I neither have the skills nor the willingness to take any risk. But to those who do it and do it successfully, I tip my hat.

You're lying - your posting history proves something else, but you are entitled to defend yourself regardless of whether you are completely disinterested or just want to assert yourself as though you are very focused on bitcoin.

The proof is here: https://ninjastic.space/user/id/877231

---

If such a move and mindset were adopted by all small investors - then the market would not be as panicked as it seemed when FUD occurred. But the fact is - a lot of them are going out and selling their bitcoins instead of holding them long-term, that's why the market sometimes dips a lot in some cases.