Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 531. (Read 122897 times)

A lot of newbies have gotten boxed out of buying BTC because they had been waiting for lower BTC prices that do not end up coming, so you can assert that you are getting your buying and waiting matters correct on a regular basis, but I have quite a bit of difficulties believing that.  The essence of the matter is that there are ONLY a few days of every year that you better be in bitcoin in order to not lose out, and I doubt that you are going to be able to proclaim that you are in bitcoin on those days that you need to be in.. unless you are always holding and buying.  Don't get me wrong.  I am not asserting that there is no benefits in waiting for dips, but I am saying that many times  newbies overly think the matter .. and I am NOT sure if you consider yourself a newbie or not because according to your forum registration date, you have well over 4 years registered on the forum, so you should have had a decent amount of opportunity to establish a position in bitcoin and maybe also if you are still building your BTC position then sometimes you still might be trying to buy on dips to maximize your buys, but if you have been buying for more than 4 years, you may well also have less to worry about in terms of already having some BTC in your holdings versus someone who is much newer to BTC and initially establishing his/her BTC position which might end up having more emphasis on regular buying rather than strategizing and/or trying to time dips and/or overly thinking the matter.


The BTC price does not need to drop below your average purchase price in order for you to benefit from ongoing buying, especially in times like these where the BTC price has been much below the 200-week moving average for about 2.5 months.. Historically speaking that's a long time for BTC prices to be below the 200-week moving average.


Hopefully, you are not investing money that you need to cover your various monthly expenses.  It is likely going to be much better to make sure that you maintain enough funds to cover your various monthly expenses, including having funds that you can draw upon if you ever have any emergency needs to have funds.. because ultimately you want to draw upon your bitcoin funds that are ONLY at a time that is completely of your own timing and your own choosing rather than being forced to do it at a time that is not of your choosing, even if you might conclude it is NO BIG DEAL - and in that regard, there are many people who start spending from their BTC funds when the BTC funds are profitable, and then end up losing out on the compounding effects that historically has come from holding BTC funds for a long time.


I think that I agree with you about this point, which seems to be that ultimately, the upside potential for bitcoin means that any newbie does not necessarily need to invest a lot into BTC in order to have the potential to still gain a lot from having had invested into BTC.

However, at the same time, there still can be some advantage in terms of engaging in a strategy that is sufficiently aggressive and not overly whimpy nor overly aggressive, and of course, where and how to draw those kinds of lines regarding how much is aggressive is enough and not too much is going to be discretionary and some people may realize that they had not been aggressive enough or that they might get into a situation in which they realize that they were too aggressive.

That's why I never guess and fumble when entering the market, many things to be aware of when we start using bitcoin for investment.
The cash flow that we have must be balanced with the investment made, this is meant when the bitcoin price drops below the purchase price.
Because the concept of investment is looking for profit, not exchanging money, the problem is when the price of bitcoin drops, the cash flow that we have is empty, then this is where the chaos we will face.

Therefore, investing in bitcoin is not recommended in large quantities, if the understanding of reading the market is not mature, plus if beginners only think about profit, this will have a bad impact on investment.

Sure, you are correct that when bitcoin prices are extremely volatile to the downside, then bitcoin HODLers might either question bitcoin's investment thesis or they might question their own strategies in regards to accumulating bitcoin, and of course, not only newbie bitcoin HODLers are vulnerable to such second-guessing of their own BTC accumulation strategies.

There are quite a few ways to deal with these kinds of extreme BTC price volatility matters, but of course, the strategy is well going to differ between different users, so in that sense they need to attempt to figure out how to tailor their approach to their own situation which involves assessing cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

At the same time, if someone has already figured out that bitcoin is a solid investment for them, then like you mentioned there are some people who may have more trouble continuing to buy when the price is down, and that may have to do with their cashflow, and surely it is usually not a good practice to overly invest into something and not be able to keep a cashflow because your ongoing cashflow had depended upon the asset going up in price, so if the price moves against you, then you end up being in a pickle of a financial situation.

So if someone is in BTC accumulation mode then the strategies are DCA, buying on dip, and lump sum investment, and if you run out of money then you go into HODL mode.  Of course, the strategies might be different for someone who feels that they have made it out of BTC accumulation mode and they might either be in maintenance mode or in liquidation mode.. but most of the times, we are assuming that people are in BTC accumulation mode or have to get passed that stage first and then the strategies might be a bit easier for maintenance mode or liquidation mode.. but still any mode is going to be affected when the BTC volatility is high to the downside and there is a decent amount of uncertainty regarding ongoing price direction like it seems to be now.


The way you are framing this comes off as a bit confusing, ajiz138.  Of course, if you have already accumulated a lot of BTC, then you might have an ongoing dollar cost investment amount that continues to add to the size of your bitcoin stash, but it is adding in such a small proportion, that the amount added is not making any kind of large difference to the overall value of your BTC holdings, so in that regard, DCA might be similar to HODL.

It seems to me that HODL is a kind of status that might be telling us to NOT sell when we might be tempted to sell, but I also frequently consider that it can be a strategy that might be employed in buying on dips that seems to happen when the dip keeps happening and the bitcoin HODLer has largely run out of money.. so then when they are faced with the choice to sell in order to get more money to buy back lower, then better advice seems to be to just HODL through it and do not sell.. but instead either wait for the BTC price to go back up or to wait for more cash to come in so that you will be able to buy more if the price goes down more.


I think that you are describing a situation in which surely someone like you had increased your options because once you accumulate BTC for a decent amount of time, whether you do it by buying on dips or DCA or some other methods, then your calculations might change regarding what you want to do when the BTC price is down or in a seemingly long period of ongoing consolidation (and perhaps more dips coming, too?).    


The practices can still overlap.  Sure there are pure forms of various kinds of practices, but many people will not necessarily employ a BTC accumulation strategy that is a pure strategy, usually if the person is into bitcoin for long enough, it will end up playing out as a combination of strategies.. Of course, someone who has not been in bitcoin for very long may have ONLY started out by employing one strategy, but it seems that the longer that they are into bitcoin, they might end up changing their strategy(ies) or adding new strategies, too.


I hate to be argumentative, but HODL might not be very good if the amount of BTC accumulated is really whimpy - even though we know that even whimpy BTC accumulation amounts can end up adding up to a lot of value in the future.  I don't always agree with some of the strategies that Wind_FURY describes, but he has been into bitcoin for a long enough period of time that I think that he has set himself into some comfortable positions in regards to his various ways of buying BTC over time, and even if he will not necessarily admit it, he could probably look back and verify that he has likely employed a combination of strategies, even if he does not like to admit to his having had purposefully followed any kind of DCA strategy.. but sometimes even buying on dip does end up looking like DCA depending on how the BTC price plays out.


Just for clarification, I do believe that people can do whatever they like, but I also think that bitcoin's investment thesis has gotten stronger in the past few years, and also remember that I am just some random person on the internet who has views about bitcoin so you do have to come to your own conclusions in regards to assessing the ongoing strength of bitcoin's investment thesis (and if it has strength).

I have also suggested that setting an investment timeline of at least 4 years is better and if you are able to set an investment timeline of even longer, such as 10 years or longer, then you are likely going to do very good in terms of having had invested in bitcoin, but at the same time, we always should be attempting to frame these matters in terms of probabilities in that ongoingly bitcoin's investment thesis seems to be getting stronger, even when we are experiencing these various kinds of strong price dips and even depressing periods in terms of where BTC price has gone and trepidations about where the BTC price might go in the short term.  

So in the end, we cannot know that bitcoin will end up as being a good investment and each person has to take responsibility for themselves in terms of why they are investing into bitcoin, rather than relying on JJG says or anyone else says for that matter... and of course, there are a variety of experts in bitcoin, and there are even bitcoin naysaying experts (or supposed experts, even though many of the bitcoin naysaying experts seem to have not studied bitcoin very well or do not know what the fuck bitcoin is, but still, they may end up being correct about bitcoin failing in the long run - even if the evidence does not seem to currently support that it is very likely that bitcoin is going to fail absent some lesser likely scenarios playing out, such as a bug in the code or successful internal attacks or some other various possible attack vectors that could end up gaining traction and suppressing bitcoin's price much longer than any of pro-bitcoin folks had thought to be possible).

Buying at a time of decline may be easy for some people, but it will be even more difficult, when the drop is below the buy price, this will make it difficult for people.
although the case of bitcoin is not only seen on a certain period, one must understand the bitcoin chart is on the green or red line.
a similar case will make beginners or people who have invested in bitcoin for a long time, experience a point of chaos and unbalanced control

Yes, trading is not DCA but DCA is almost exactly the same as HODL.

I started out with HODL buying dips and came back HODL for a long time.

Second, I started with DCA accumulating this is different from HODL, DCA every week purchase and HODL buying the lowest dips.

This strategy is a little different but I'll be comfortable with it.

What you need to know is that HODL and DCA are good things in the long run..

remember JayJuanGee said that 4-10 of us will feel better and feel it.

the price of bitcoin is falling because a correction is happening, and it's called bearish, this is natural,
because it doesn't only happen in the crypto market, but the stock market also experiences a bearish market,
especially with the world economic disaster, of course it will have a negative impact on the market,
buy the dip is the solution if you want to invest

That is why listening to FUD is not always a strong reason, this will be too late in making purchases, many people tend to do something that is not based on research, this is not a good solution when making decisions, because when prices start far from unbalanced, panic will be hit them.
How could people be able to control investment, to see opportunities and make the analysis they cannot do.
That is why caution is always needed, before doing something.

Everyone just has to remember that Bitcoin is a censorship-resistant, unseizable form of Money first before anything else. The market and the price will frustrate you, and it would make you sell all your Bitcoins to free you from the stressful life of "the HODL", but Bitcoin will always have value to those who need it, which many of you don't think that you currently need it. But you will need it, especially if you live in a country near China. Ready your passports, and memorize your seeds.

Ser, selling is not part of DCA, because DCA - or Dollar Cost Averaging - is a buying strategy to accumulate an asset for a long term hold, also called in the Bitcoin community as the "HODL". The philosophy behind DCA is the acceptance that most of us "investors" can't predict market price movements accurately, which can make it a very good strategy for plebs like us who don't know much about trading.

We are not talking about trading in this thread.. and therefore we are not talking about selling.. Wind_FURY seems to have addressed that point.

In other words, build up your portfolio.. by buying and it can take a decent amount of time.. down the road, you will likely feel better if that is 4-10 years or longer.. ongoingly buying bitcoin is good.. and buying on dips can be even better if you do not let if paralyze you from the more important idea to continue to buy and continue to build your stack... and if you run out of money... HODL... as the title of the thread indicates.

Now your point about selling high should also work in the long run too.. even though it is not guaranteed.. but don't be thinking about that nonsense in the short term.. selling is not a reasonable way to try to accumulate more BTC.. you accumulate more BTC by employing various techniques of buying...


We are not talking about buy sell here.. ... yeah sure in the long term we are going to end up selling.. but in the short term we are accumulating bitcoin through buying .. not selling.

Yes I also agreeing with your words because there is no specific dip for trading so it's better to make a good DCA and then take invest in trading. It is normal that trading will not always give the same profit but sometimes it will give less profit or sometimes there will give loss.  But with a good DCA strategy everything can be kept in an average line which can minimize your losses.

A "trader" who applies "strategies", but cannot profit more than if he/she merely bought, and HODLed Bitcoin shouldn't be trading in my opinion. Because what would be the point of trading if HODLing Bitcoin, or if you also like altcoins/shitcoins, hold an index/basket of good coins, whatever those coins may be, is more profitable? Plebs like us should preserve our sanity and leave the market to the professionals.

Trader applies strategies to conduct trading business. Here those strategies often fail because those may not have been adjusted with time. But there is one strategy that is always effective is to buy low and sell high. But there is no specific limit to the dip. It is better to buy from a possible stage by doing market analysis on the other you can buy it from any bear market which is currently on going.

There's always that probability, but there's also some probability that it wouldn't. There are no absolutes in the universe. The Pi Cycle says the bottom for the current bear cycle has been reached. Plus Bitcoin has never traded below its 200-Week SMA for long periods of time, although it's currently its longest time trading up and down the indicator. To be honest, I'm worried it might be invalidated.


Or wait until November/December.

You need to be carefuly in any assessments of BTC's possible price performance that seems to overly correlate it with various traditional assets, the SP500, NASDAQ or otherwise.  Sure, in the short term there may well be some seemingly decent levels of correlation, but if you zoom out and attempt to really appreciate bitcoin for what it is (and you do not want to get reckt as fuck because you failed/refused to adequately prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity), for a variety of reasons (including but not limited to that it is a new paradigm shifting asset class) so far, historically and likely into the future, bitcoin is not correlated with any other assets on the long term.

Bitcoin is likely to dip below $20k soon, The stocks market have been pulling up recently while Bitcoin is now acting a lot weaker than the SP500 and the stock market. So you need to trade carefully. But it's still a buying opportunity in my opinion. If NASDAQ go down 2-3% this week, Bitcoin might go for a Small Splash.

Of course, the idea of "over-investing" has not been used in precision ways, and the circumstances are going to vary in regards to how anyone might be able to consider overinvesting.

For example, let's say that hypothetical person 1 is new to bitcoin in late 2020 (let's just say 2 years ago), and at that time, s/he had $100k in his/her investment portfolio, and at that time, s/he had around $6k in savings and around $500 per month extra cashflow (that is apart from expenses and emergency fund already in place) that s/he could invest into anything, and s/he choose to invest all of this extra money into bitcoin over the next 12 months... in order to reach a $12k invested into bitcoin in 12 months and around 12% of the total value of the investment portfolio into bitcoin... and towards the end of 2021, s/he feels pretty good about his/her investment, because the bitcoin price went up and down, but was UP by the end of the year, so s/he decides to continue to invest at about $500 per month ($62.50 per week DCA and $62.50 per week set aside for buying on dips).  By the end of two years, s/he has invested around $18k into bitcoin, and maybe has ONLY accumulated around 0.6 BTC (valued at a little less than $13k), so such a person is feeling overinvested into BTC, because the target investment level was to reach 12%, but s/he had continued to accumulate BTC so s/he is invested around 18%-ish into BTC relative to the value of the total investment portfolio.

Of course, these are hypothetical numbers, so there is going to be some variance in the results and also variance in how the proportions are measured, including what ratios that such a person might invest in accordance with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Mistakes also may well be made along the way; however, at the same, time, if such a person is NOT overly spending his her budget and easily able to pay his/her expenses and to maintain an emergency fund, then the person should not be suffering financially and/or psychologically, even if his/her BTC portfolio is NOT in profits and even though s/he continues to invest into BTC, even while BTC prices are down and even while there remains a decent amount of ongoing uncertainties regarding bitcoin's shorter term price direction.  

There are ways to frame a prudent, aggressive and assertive approach to ongoingly investing into bitcoin in terms of not being "insane" even though it is not currently measured as being in profits.. but there still seems to be decent chances that an ongoing investment into bitcoin, even during times like these will likely have decent measures, 4-10 years or more down the road especially compared with other places in which the same money could be put... and of course, there are no guarantees, and that is part of the reason why any person investing into bitcoin has to make sure that they do not over extend themselves, even if what they are doing still might be categorized as aggressive and even overinvesting into bitcoin.

And to repeat that the extent to which any person "overinvests" into bitcoin is a discretionary choice that may or may not end up paying off... even though many of us who have been into bitcoin a decently longer period of time should be able to appreciate and recognize a decent amount of value in terms of taking a somewhat aggressive and assertive approach to bitcoin so long as we have the rest of our expenses and emergency funds covered and maintained.

I believe the problem is "it's not having enough conviction" in HODLing. Over-investing + conviction = mentally insane person who can HODL in ALL kinds of market situations. Although buying during the DIPs of 2019 truly would help if you're HODLing today, it wasn't very easy during 2019, and especially during the Covid Crash of 2020. Placing your coins in cold storage will definitely help you from the temptation of selling.

For sure, I am not going to presume to know how long our current consolidation might last, if we might get lower BTC prices from here, or how far lower any such dip might go. 

You are correct Wind_FURY that this whole down market could last into 2023.. and sure it could last anywhere between another day and another 18 months, so in that regard, there can be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how much time that any of us has to stack up on sats at these prices and potentially lower BTC prices.

Of course, many of you realize (including you Wind_FURY) that I emphasize buying rather than HODLing, and for sure HODLing would be the second best scenario in the event that you do not have any money left to buy, and I do realize, as Wind_FURY mentioned, that there are going to be quite a few current bitcoiners (HODLers/Newbies) who could well get shaken out of their coins in the coming months as long as the BTC price does not go up from here...   Yet this way of thinking about the future presumes either that BTC prices are going down from here, or the amount of up (perhaps flat) that we get from here, will not be enough to inspire confidence in continuing to HODL whatever BTC that the current HODLers happen to have... These could be signs of either being over-invested or just NOT having enough conviction in regards to having had bought BTC in recent times and likely being in the negative for a decent amount of time while bills are coming due and fear continues to linger about whether the BTC price is going to go up from here at any point in time in the near future.

On the other hand, I would imagine that a lot those who are likely to be shaken from their coins have already been shook.  In that regard, if quite a few number of newbie bitcoiners have been shaken out of their BTC, then there would not necessarily be a lot more to shake.. and the number of buyers might start to outweigh the number of sellers - in spite of the ongoing negative talk that presumes that more down is to come - and the presumptuous discussions of inevitable $13k and baloney like that.

Of course, for any of us who might have average BTC costs of more than $40k per coin, we are going to feel some anxiety, and perhaps even more insult to our position in terms of the May and June dips in the BTC price that first took us below $35k and then subsequently took us below $28k... and not just a little below those price thresholds.  In that regard, there can exist both psychological and financial trauma when the BTC price drops that far down, and we might have even felt as if some of our expectations about how low the BTC price could go had been broken by those drops in the BTC price... So some of us who might not have enough conviction about BTC are merely doing our best to just continue to HODL whatever BTC that we had, yet likely the stronger ground would be to get the fuck over it. .and to continue to buy.. yet I understand part of the problem in continuing to buy is that if we had already overly invested into BTC then we are not really able to continue to buy.

If we had not overly invested, then after 1 or 2 months of consolidation, we should be able to regroup and figure out some kind of a reasonable and prudent plan that works for our circumstances.. whether that is merely buying $10 per week.. or some other relatively smaller amount, and maybe also to set aside some of our cashflow for buying on dips and maybe even deciding how much we will buy at each price dip if the BTC price goes to such lower levels.. while at the same time realizing that further dips may or may not happen, so we have to be mentally and financially prepared that our BTC buying plan is good enough to address either scenario.

I know that so many times, Wind_FURY has proclaimed that I am coming from some kind of a privileged area to always have a plan in place to continue to buy on a regular basis and/or to be able to buy on dips, and surely any of us are more privileged if we have a cashflow and if we have a cashflow that exceeds our monthly expenses.. so the tighter our budget, the more difficulties we are going to have to justify setting aside some of our cashflow for the purposes of ongoingly buying BTC.  Furthermore, the fact that the whole economy has been getting royally fucked in a lot of places around the world, we may well have gotten pushed into a position in which we used to have extra cashflow, and we no longer have extra cashflow because either our income has gone down or our expenses have gone up.  So surely, I am not going to presume all of the possible scenarios and I will concede that there are going to be some cases in which normies are not able to set aside extra money for buying BTC and they might not even have any realistic abilities to figure out ways to further cut their expenses or to increase their cashflow.  So, in that regard, each of us has to do our best in regards to managing our BTC approach based on our assessment of our circumstances

I believe there will be many of our fellow plebs who are going to sell from now to 2023, and they will actually be the same plebs who will FOMO back, and help cause another market surge during the next bull cycle. OK, but fellow plebs, the current state of the market is indeed truly frustrating, BUT just HODL. There are people in the market who are currently accumulating Bitcoin, knowing that the risk transfer required to start the next bull cycle is happening. Don't sell to these people, be one of these people.