Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 534. (Read 123660 times)

Buying at a time of decline may be easy for some people, but it will be even more difficult, when the drop is below the buy price, this will make it difficult for people.
although the case of bitcoin is not only seen on a certain period, one must understand the bitcoin chart is on the green or red line.
a similar case will make beginners or people who have invested in bitcoin for a long time, experience a point of chaos and unbalanced control

Yes, trading is not DCA but DCA is almost exactly the same as HODL.

I started out with HODL buying dips and came back HODL for a long time.

Second, I started with DCA accumulating this is different from HODL, DCA every week purchase and HODL buying the lowest dips.

This strategy is a little different but I'll be comfortable with it.

What you need to know is that HODL and DCA are good things in the long run..

remember JayJuanGee said that 4-10 of us will feel better and feel it.

the price of bitcoin is falling because a correction is happening, and it's called bearish, this is natural,
because it doesn't only happen in the crypto market, but the stock market also experiences a bearish market,
especially with the world economic disaster, of course it will have a negative impact on the market,
buy the dip is the solution if you want to invest

That is why listening to FUD is not always a strong reason, this will be too late in making purchases, many people tend to do something that is not based on research, this is not a good solution when making decisions, because when prices start far from unbalanced, panic will be hit them.
How could people be able to control investment, to see opportunities and make the analysis they cannot do.
That is why caution is always needed, before doing something.

Everyone just has to remember that Bitcoin is a censorship-resistant, unseizable form of Money first before anything else. The market and the price will frustrate you, and it would make you sell all your Bitcoins to free you from the stressful life of "the HODL", but Bitcoin will always have value to those who need it, which many of you don't think that you currently need it. But you will need it, especially if you live in a country near China. Ready your passports, and memorize your seeds.

Ser, selling is not part of DCA, because DCA - or Dollar Cost Averaging - is a buying strategy to accumulate an asset for a long term hold, also called in the Bitcoin community as the "HODL". The philosophy behind DCA is the acceptance that most of us "investors" can't predict market price movements accurately, which can make it a very good strategy for plebs like us who don't know much about trading.

We are not talking about trading in this thread.. and therefore we are not talking about selling.. Wind_FURY seems to have addressed that point.

In other words, build up your portfolio.. by buying and it can take a decent amount of time.. down the road, you will likely feel better if that is 4-10 years or longer.. ongoingly buying bitcoin is good.. and buying on dips can be even better if you do not let if paralyze you from the more important idea to continue to buy and continue to build your stack... and if you run out of money... HODL... as the title of the thread indicates.

Now your point about selling high should also work in the long run too.. even though it is not guaranteed.. but don't be thinking about that nonsense in the short term.. selling is not a reasonable way to try to accumulate more BTC.. you accumulate more BTC by employing various techniques of buying...


We are not talking about buy sell here.. ... yeah sure in the long term we are going to end up selling.. but in the short term we are accumulating bitcoin through buying .. not selling.

Yes I also agreeing with your words because there is no specific dip for trading so it's better to make a good DCA and then take invest in trading. It is normal that trading will not always give the same profit but sometimes it will give less profit or sometimes there will give loss.  But with a good DCA strategy everything can be kept in an average line which can minimize your losses.

A "trader" who applies "strategies", but cannot profit more than if he/she merely bought, and HODLed Bitcoin shouldn't be trading in my opinion. Because what would be the point of trading if HODLing Bitcoin, or if you also like altcoins/shitcoins, hold an index/basket of good coins, whatever those coins may be, is more profitable? Plebs like us should preserve our sanity and leave the market to the professionals.

Trader applies strategies to conduct trading business. Here those strategies often fail because those may not have been adjusted with time. But there is one strategy that is always effective is to buy low and sell high. But there is no specific limit to the dip. It is better to buy from a possible stage by doing market analysis on the other you can buy it from any bear market which is currently on going.

There's always that probability, but there's also some probability that it wouldn't. There are no absolutes in the universe. The Pi Cycle says the bottom for the current bear cycle has been reached. Plus Bitcoin has never traded below its 200-Week SMA for long periods of time, although it's currently its longest time trading up and down the indicator. To be honest, I'm worried it might be invalidated.


Or wait until November/December.

You need to be carefuly in any assessments of BTC's possible price performance that seems to overly correlate it with various traditional assets, the SP500, NASDAQ or otherwise.  Sure, in the short term there may well be some seemingly decent levels of correlation, but if you zoom out and attempt to really appreciate bitcoin for what it is (and you do not want to get reckt as fuck because you failed/refused to adequately prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity), for a variety of reasons (including but not limited to that it is a new paradigm shifting asset class) so far, historically and likely into the future, bitcoin is not correlated with any other assets on the long term.

Bitcoin is likely to dip below $20k soon, The stocks market have been pulling up recently while Bitcoin is now acting a lot weaker than the SP500 and the stock market. So you need to trade carefully. But it's still a buying opportunity in my opinion. If NASDAQ go down 2-3% this week, Bitcoin might go for a Small Splash.

Of course, the idea of "over-investing" has not been used in precision ways, and the circumstances are going to vary in regards to how anyone might be able to consider overinvesting.

For example, let's say that hypothetical person 1 is new to bitcoin in late 2020 (let's just say 2 years ago), and at that time, s/he had $100k in his/her investment portfolio, and at that time, s/he had around $6k in savings and around $500 per month extra cashflow (that is apart from expenses and emergency fund already in place) that s/he could invest into anything, and s/he choose to invest all of this extra money into bitcoin over the next 12 months... in order to reach a $12k invested into bitcoin in 12 months and around 12% of the total value of the investment portfolio into bitcoin... and towards the end of 2021, s/he feels pretty good about his/her investment, because the bitcoin price went up and down, but was UP by the end of the year, so s/he decides to continue to invest at about $500 per month ($62.50 per week DCA and $62.50 per week set aside for buying on dips).  By the end of two years, s/he has invested around $18k into bitcoin, and maybe has ONLY accumulated around 0.6 BTC (valued at a little less than $13k), so such a person is feeling overinvested into BTC, because the target investment level was to reach 12%, but s/he had continued to accumulate BTC so s/he is invested around 18%-ish into BTC relative to the value of the total investment portfolio.

Of course, these are hypothetical numbers, so there is going to be some variance in the results and also variance in how the proportions are measured, including what ratios that such a person might invest in accordance with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Mistakes also may well be made along the way; however, at the same, time, if such a person is NOT overly spending his her budget and easily able to pay his/her expenses and to maintain an emergency fund, then the person should not be suffering financially and/or psychologically, even if his/her BTC portfolio is NOT in profits and even though s/he continues to invest into BTC, even while BTC prices are down and even while there remains a decent amount of ongoing uncertainties regarding bitcoin's shorter term price direction.  

There are ways to frame a prudent, aggressive and assertive approach to ongoingly investing into bitcoin in terms of not being "insane" even though it is not currently measured as being in profits.. but there still seems to be decent chances that an ongoing investment into bitcoin, even during times like these will likely have decent measures, 4-10 years or more down the road especially compared with other places in which the same money could be put... and of course, there are no guarantees, and that is part of the reason why any person investing into bitcoin has to make sure that they do not over extend themselves, even if what they are doing still might be categorized as aggressive and even overinvesting into bitcoin.

And to repeat that the extent to which any person "overinvests" into bitcoin is a discretionary choice that may or may not end up paying off... even though many of us who have been into bitcoin a decently longer period of time should be able to appreciate and recognize a decent amount of value in terms of taking a somewhat aggressive and assertive approach to bitcoin so long as we have the rest of our expenses and emergency funds covered and maintained.

I believe the problem is "it's not having enough conviction" in HODLing. Over-investing + conviction = mentally insane person who can HODL in ALL kinds of market situations. Although buying during the DIPs of 2019 truly would help if you're HODLing today, it wasn't very easy during 2019, and especially during the Covid Crash of 2020. Placing your coins in cold storage will definitely help you from the temptation of selling.

For sure, I am not going to presume to know how long our current consolidation might last, if we might get lower BTC prices from here, or how far lower any such dip might go. 

You are correct Wind_FURY that this whole down market could last into 2023.. and sure it could last anywhere between another day and another 18 months, so in that regard, there can be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how much time that any of us has to stack up on sats at these prices and potentially lower BTC prices.

Of course, many of you realize (including you Wind_FURY) that I emphasize buying rather than HODLing, and for sure HODLing would be the second best scenario in the event that you do not have any money left to buy, and I do realize, as Wind_FURY mentioned, that there are going to be quite a few current bitcoiners (HODLers/Newbies) who could well get shaken out of their coins in the coming months as long as the BTC price does not go up from here...   Yet this way of thinking about the future presumes either that BTC prices are going down from here, or the amount of up (perhaps flat) that we get from here, will not be enough to inspire confidence in continuing to HODL whatever BTC that the current HODLers happen to have... These could be signs of either being over-invested or just NOT having enough conviction in regards to having had bought BTC in recent times and likely being in the negative for a decent amount of time while bills are coming due and fear continues to linger about whether the BTC price is going to go up from here at any point in time in the near future.

On the other hand, I would imagine that a lot those who are likely to be shaken from their coins have already been shook.  In that regard, if quite a few number of newbie bitcoiners have been shaken out of their BTC, then there would not necessarily be a lot more to shake.. and the number of buyers might start to outweigh the number of sellers - in spite of the ongoing negative talk that presumes that more down is to come - and the presumptuous discussions of inevitable $13k and baloney like that.

Of course, for any of us who might have average BTC costs of more than $40k per coin, we are going to feel some anxiety, and perhaps even more insult to our position in terms of the May and June dips in the BTC price that first took us below $35k and then subsequently took us below $28k... and not just a little below those price thresholds.  In that regard, there can exist both psychological and financial trauma when the BTC price drops that far down, and we might have even felt as if some of our expectations about how low the BTC price could go had been broken by those drops in the BTC price... So some of us who might not have enough conviction about BTC are merely doing our best to just continue to HODL whatever BTC that we had, yet likely the stronger ground would be to get the fuck over it. .and to continue to buy.. yet I understand part of the problem in continuing to buy is that if we had already overly invested into BTC then we are not really able to continue to buy.

If we had not overly invested, then after 1 or 2 months of consolidation, we should be able to regroup and figure out some kind of a reasonable and prudent plan that works for our circumstances.. whether that is merely buying $10 per week.. or some other relatively smaller amount, and maybe also to set aside some of our cashflow for buying on dips and maybe even deciding how much we will buy at each price dip if the BTC price goes to such lower levels.. while at the same time realizing that further dips may or may not happen, so we have to be mentally and financially prepared that our BTC buying plan is good enough to address either scenario.

I know that so many times, Wind_FURY has proclaimed that I am coming from some kind of a privileged area to always have a plan in place to continue to buy on a regular basis and/or to be able to buy on dips, and surely any of us are more privileged if we have a cashflow and if we have a cashflow that exceeds our monthly expenses.. so the tighter our budget, the more difficulties we are going to have to justify setting aside some of our cashflow for the purposes of ongoingly buying BTC.  Furthermore, the fact that the whole economy has been getting royally fucked in a lot of places around the world, we may well have gotten pushed into a position in which we used to have extra cashflow, and we no longer have extra cashflow because either our income has gone down or our expenses have gone up.  So surely, I am not going to presume all of the possible scenarios and I will concede that there are going to be some cases in which normies are not able to set aside extra money for buying BTC and they might not even have any realistic abilities to figure out ways to further cut their expenses or to increase their cashflow.  So, in that regard, each of us has to do our best in regards to managing our BTC approach based on our assessment of our circumstances

I believe there will be many of our fellow plebs who are going to sell from now to 2023, and they will actually be the same plebs who will FOMO back, and help cause another market surge during the next bull cycle. OK, but fellow plebs, the current state of the market is indeed truly frustrating, BUT just HODL. There are people in the market who are currently accumulating Bitcoin, knowing that the risk transfer required to start the next bull cycle is happening. Don't sell to these people, be one of these people.

You need to be careful, as well, not to overly analyze (or to be overly critical) of your approach and especially, you should not be beating yourself up regarding if the BTC performance was either lower than you expected or higher than you expected and you could have done better with a different strategy because you should be attempting to take certain kinds of actions to assess how to allocate your budget that are based assessing your own situation at the time that you make the decisions, and the mere fact that the BTC price ends up performing differently than you expected can be taken into account, but should not cause you to end up taking rash actions to change what you had been doing.

Of course, I am not against tweaking and I am not against learning from mistakes, but we also have to realize that we are not necessarily going to know with any kind of precision which way the BTC price is going to go over certain shorter to medium term periods of time... so we just do our best and we just tweak our best.

You could establish your DCA portion and your buying on dips portion, and then see that your cashflow has changed, so you are making an additional $200 per month (or your expenses cut down by $200 per month), and in those kinds of circumstances you might choose to figure out how to allocate that new money and to choose how much of that new money might go into bitcoin and into which parts. how much do you put into DCA and how much do you put in your buying on dips fund... the same would be true in your attempts to figure out with how to deal with $200 more in expenses per month, which could remove a lot (if not all) of your extra cashflow tha you had been putting into BTC... so there are frequently going to be those kinds of factors that might change your allocations and even your thinkings about ways in which you might tweak the whole matter.



It seems that I already mentioned a couple of factors that can become quite serious considerations, and surely one of them is security of your coins.. which becomes more important the larger your stash grows.

Another factor becomes temptations that increase as the size of the stash grows to use parts of your stash for consumption or even for other investments or for emergency purposes, and prematuredly dipping into your stash can have very BIG ramifications in terms of its longer term growth.

You're right my budget is not too high but I will continue to adjust until this is completely stable meaning there is no reduction that I have set, as for the additional current maybe I will add from another note but it's still the same in the DCA strategy it's just that this separates me I just want to know the accumulation of the determined budget with the uncertain additional budget, so later it will be a comparison for me which one is better than the accumulation, the set budget or the additional budget.

It doesn't matter if it takes time, I've said I try to survive in any situation as long as I'm still working and getting a salary it's normal for my family to make ends meet, but in this forum I also generate an additional budget from the signature it will be more powerful for me so should think that this should be managed as well as possible so that the budget can be used as well as possible.

But I'm sure this will grow over time, so in essence we should be able to complete this mission with a long journey.

I doubt that your linked post of one of my responses is very reflective of what I think, especially since I was joking when I responded to that, yet largely the essence still ends up being that we cannot really know if the price trend is going to continue to go up, or if there is going to be a meaningful dip prior to going up more or a meaningful dip ONLY comes after having had gone up more.

I made an even further response in this post, after member Moringstarr had posted a kind of "down before up" proclamation.

Even if from time to time, I make various proclamations about the BTC price direction, I don't really consider myself to be someone who is planning my own behaviors in terms of placing very much emphasis in trying to figure out which way the BTC price is going to go, and if you look at my various posts within this thread, I frequently try to provide strategies that are not very dependent upon which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term with a kind of presumption that down the road in the longer term 4 years plus, the BTC price is quite likely to be higher than it is today.. or any day that you can pick that ultimately the BTC price is going up so that if you are ongoingly accumulating BTC at any price, that you are going to be better off in the future (4 years or longer) as compared to how you are today by either staying in the dollar or investing in any other assets/currency... So in any event nothing is guaranteed when it comes to how the presumptions end up playing out.

So as far as specifically attempting to prepare, each person has to look at their own situation, and surely if anyone is in the earliest stages of BTC accumulation, then it seems to me that there needs to be an ongoing dollar cost averaging (DCA) plan that is in play, and surely that DCA plan can can be supplemented by buying on dips and lump sum buying.. and from my point of view, we just have to be careful in regards to allowing the perfect become the enemy of the good in the sense that we are never really going to be able to exactly time the bottom with any kind of precision, so we could end up screwing ourselves in terms of both finances and psychology if we overly invest in waiting for dips that may or may not end up playing out.


O.k... fair enough... the bottom of $22k-ish might not be in, yet.  What about the bottom of $17,593 from mid-June?  Is that bottom in?  And, if you have any ideas, or suspicions regarding what might happen, then what are you going to do about your suspicions? 

Are you waiting?  Do you already have BTC?  Hopefully, you are not selling much if any BTC at this price with hopes of buying back lower when lower may or may not come.