Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 526. (Read 108142 times)

Nobody is saying the exact bottom can be predicted. I'm saying that market cycles exist, and they are to a certain degree predictable, even if exact price targets are not. As opposed to "buy every dip, all the time, no matter what," which I think most investors can do better than.

I would absolutely be kicking myself if I had bought and held in early 2018, knowing what I knew from the 2013 cycle. Buying and holding directly after a bubble pop is not only pissing away capital but it's painful as hell.

We largely ONLY know how far or how deep a BTC price dip is going to be after the fact, and I don't think that it is good to be second-guessing ourselves or to be kicking ourselves over having had been able to buy more lower, blah blah blah..  especially if we bought a lot at $8k and then the price dips to $6k and we buy a lot at $6k, and then the price dips nearly to $3k and we do not have very much money, so we ONLY buy a little bit in the $3ks because we feel that we are running out of money.  Worrying that we could have bought more BTC for lower will either lead to inaction and getting left behind when the BTC price unexpectedly goes up (which happens quite a bit in bitcoinlandia) or putting too much mental energy in trying to study preparing for down and further down rather than meaningfully and adequately preparing for up.. that seems to be why peeps invest in bitcoin in the first place.. ,,, So, largely, we likely going to be much better off financially, psychologically and time managemently to be spending more of our energies preparing for UP rather than preparing for down (even though a bit of preparing for both with an emphasis on preparing for UP does not seem to hurt).  


Of course, people have a tendency to do the opposite of what they should do.

That is part of the reason that no one should be overinvesting into BTC (except maybe on the margins).

BTC investors should set some kind of reasonable and meaningful BTC accumulation target, and then also make sure that their expenses are covered - so that they do not have to dip into their BTC investment, except at a time that is at their completely own choosing. 

If you overinvest, and you do not have your regular expenses and emergency expenses (remember emergency means that you don't necessarily know that it is coming.. but you should still prepare for such) covered, then you will likely end up screwing yourself by having to dip into your BTC investment that is at a time that is NOT of your own choosing.

Of course, I see that the red zone is very small in that graph/chart that you provided above, Wind_FURY.

You have been registered on this forum since mid-2016, so let's take mid-2016 as a projection timeline.

If anyone who got into bitcoin in the mid-2016 timeframe had actually been following some variation of what you are suggesting in this post (which seems to be a combination of buying on dips and DCA), then there would be almost no way that they would actually be unprofitable, even if technically they had made some purchases with the DCA aspect of your suggestion that were higher than the current BTC price.

It's like there was so much passage of time in which BTC prices were lower than our current price that any BTC purchases that were made above our current price end up getting washed out (or averaged out into profitable) by the BTC purchases that ended up getting made below our current price, which your chart also shows a lot of that happening since mid-2016 - even though the whole chart looks kind of flatly inclining upwardly since it goes all the way back to 2011.

I know that in this thread, several members have raised both the question about not really knowing what constitutes a sufficient enough dip, and then also they raise questions about having their BTC profits to end up being less because if they employ some DCA method, then they miss opportunities to buy BTC lower (and more of it) with that same money that they had used to buy BTC higher because they ended up DCA buying rather than really being able to achieve a BIG SCORE with a BIG DIP price.

I would bet that almost all members who have been in BTC for at least 4 years have made some mistakes along the way in which they could describe some "should have" "would have" "could have" situations in which more money would have been made if they had done a, b & c rather than x, y & z.  My experience has been that many folks accumulating and HODLing bitcoin should not be kicking themselves with 20/20 hindsight, but realize that lots of mistakes tend to be made along the way,  and those who strive to learn from their mistakes tend to profit more in the long run and likely to make fewer mistakes by learning to employ the soundest of strategies, which are the buy on dip, dca and HODL strategies... and thinking about the matter, and acting to employ such buying and HODL in meaningful ways continues to be quite profitable in bitcoin even if some members will profit more than others and some will make more mistakes than others.

for people who are familiar with this market it will be easy to immediately apply it but now people buy when the price is high and when the value falls panic is inevitable. even though buying when it falls is very often shown in forums but most people don't believe 

Think about the difference between buying at $15K in January 2018 and buying at $4K in March 2020. Both were arguably part of the same post-2017 bear market, but one would have netted you 3.75x more coins than the other, not to mention a much less painful drawdown.

That's the difference between buying every dip and buying the deepest dips.

Buying in 2014, not understanding at the time how long these bear market cycles can take, taught me to make that distinction.

The red colored parts of the chart are the only times that buying Bitcoin is a loss, but if you buy the dip and dollar cost average, your average-entry-price would be lower, and make your Bitcoin trade as a whole a winner.

Strong-hand-plebs will be the market geniuses of the 6-digit Bitcoin.

actually "buying every dip" strategy makes a lot more sense for a "short term trader" than a long term investor. because an investor can only buy in some dips like the biggest ones (eg. buying in $3k range) and then just hold for months or years whereas the day trader has to buy each time there is a dip, that is the definition of a short term trader and that is exactly why it is a lot harder than the other strategy.

what is important is choosing what you call a "dip" and when to buy and when to sell. for example during a bear market when the price is going down (since it was mentioned) the dips are the sudden drops that create what i call "reverse bubbles" and are immediately followed by a recovery.
take 2017 bubble burst for instance. there was many drops but the most obvious one i think was the drop down to $11100 which was followed by the recovery to $15k-ish which continued rising up to $16500. with $11k being the "dip" for the day trader and the recovery to anything above it being the sell opportunity.

Zoom out. Bitcoin's bear markets, with the deepest dips, were clearly the best golden opportunities the market will give us plebs before Bitcoin resumes the path to 6 digits.

Some friends and I in the Tradingview chat always used to joke about this during the 2014 bear market. Someone would say, "Buy the dip!" and then everyone would chime in, "Which dip?"

The only time I buy every dip (down to the 1-minute chart) is during a bubble, like 2017. Otherwise I only think of dip buying in terms of mid term (months) and long term (years).

Because you want quick profits, not,



Good luck to your trades, but I believe you aim small.


Zoom out,



The probability is VERY HIGH.

Buying every dip is like punishment for me and I do not see it as a opportunity, I respect the perspective of other people about the price of bitcoin but for me it is really not good a strategy to buy every dip. I think the reason why I do not see it as an opportunity is because we have different trading profile. I do not do HODL because I'm a short term trader and that is why buying every dip is not good strategy for me.

Buying at dip with certain criteria is good especially when it comes to bounce play setup where you will buy in a dip and wait a short period of time to bounce the price then you will sell it immediately because it is a counter trend strategy where the price may go cheap. I avoid trade that is against the trend because the probability of winning is too low. 

I believe the world will be infested by mutated rats, that ordinary rat poison will NOT kill them. We will need something more powerful. Buy them while they're cheap, don't FOMO.

The "strategy", I call it a philosophy, will never apply to a person if his/her goal/plan is not,



That's OK, Bitcoin might not be a first choice for everyone.

The strategy applies to anyone who is wiling, ready and able to employ it, whether he has an extra $10k per month or an extra $5 per month.

Of course, bitcoin is not going to remove all of the advantages that the rich have over the poor, even though it could advantage the ones who are willing to study bitcoin and to figure out that bitcoin is an assymetric bet... no guarantees, of course.

Regarding cashing out strategy that is for each investor to figure out for himself/herself.

Whether buying / selling or HODLing, which also could be described as as strategy to accumulate, maintain or to liquidate (or some variation), the investor needs to consider all of his/her own particulars which would include cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills and abilities to research, learn, plan and tweak plans and holdings and strategies from time to time, including deciding whether or not to trade.  Those are all discretionary matters that are going to vary from individual but also can take a certain amount of attentiveness to figure them out.

This strategy doesn't apply for all traders, what if a certain trader doesn't have enough capital? Do you think he can buy every dips or what they called averaging down?  Of course not. Even if it is a strategy it doesn't mean that you can guarantee yourself to earn from it just because you buy at dip and hold. We should consider the time after all, are we going to hold it for the rest of our lives or are we going to sell it in short period of time.

"ÿÿÿÿ" is there because you are looking at the Unicode equivalent of the entire transaction's bytes instead of just the data that is pushed inside the signature script, and since right after the signature script there is a sequence (=0xffffffff) you see the Unicode conversion (=ÿÿÿÿ) followed by txoutcount, amount, ... where you see "...", "*",  "CA",...

Honoring Satoshi Nakamoto by framing his message and placing it on our walls.

This is not mine. A friend found it in social media, and showed it to me. Did the original message actually say, "banksÿÿÿÿ"? Was the "ÿÿÿÿ" random?

You seem to be projecting too much on the financial, budgeting and investing situation that others might find themselves in.

If you understand the concept of buying on the dip, it should be used to attempt to supplement a kind of dollar cost averaging approach to buying BTC rather than attempting to time BTC price dips, because it is nearly impossible to figure out with any kind of precision when dips are going to happen or how much dip is going to happen.


So, in this kind of a system, you might establish a buying budget for yourself that covers a period of time.  So for example if you have a $6k budget for the next 6 months, so if you divide such budget into weekly allotments, then you would have $250 per week for your budget.

Therefore, you might used some of that allotment to buy BTC every week, maybe $125, and then the other half $125 might be used to buy on dips, and of course, you can establish how much of a dip that you need before buying and you can choose to carry over the allocated amount to subsequent weeks... there are a lot of ways that you could allocate any budget, once you have established such budget in terms of both amount and time frame.. and you can even tweak a bit here or there in your carrying out of the plan based on changes in your ideas including how you might approach buying on dip practices.

but before buying each dip, you should seek information first. it might be beneficial when there is an increase or bounce back from the coin, but it will be very detrimental when the dip occurs next. however, information is very necessary in this regard, because I feel that this is quite risky if done on coins that are not very popular.

Buying the dip depends largely on individual, if you have knowledge of the market and how it operates then buying every dip would be very satisfying, but from the point of a newbie who had already bought from the top and has less or limited knowledge of the market won't even consider it, their eagerness would be to sell and leave,
I would rather buy in every major dip than in every dip, although the former comes rarely.