I doubt that is the best way of thinking about how to tailorize bitcoin to individual circumstances and the particular opportunities that present themselves (especially to normies) through something like bitcoin.
I have outlined several times that people do not tend to have lump sums of cash that they are either hanging onto or that they would like to go into debt or that they would like to hang onto cash and try to time opportunities to enter into whatever investment. Of course, a house is a bit of a different investment because of living in it, but it is still subject to the bullshit over-skewing of the importance of debt.. so currently there are all kinds of people and institutions hoarding housing because they are afraid to keep their value in cash or some other assets that are questionable in their fundamentals.
Agreed that recognizing the value fiat has lost over the decades isn't the most advertising reason to invest in Bitcoin. It's a good reason to invest in something, but doesn't give BTC any specific merit for investment really.
I'm going to be the contrarian here though (as per usual). While true most people don't have a lump of cash in order to invest, I've realized more recently that those that do still don't want to risk investing in Bitcoin, or anything for that matter. It's those that don't have cash aside that appear to be more likely to putting a small % of their earnings into BTC, either as DCA or otherwise after some tax return, or something similar ("average joe"). It's no longer about the high risk it seems, but simply the risk in itself of investing money.
Knowing that enough of my friends have taken the plunge and invested a decent amount of what they have, knowing the probability and risk/reward is worth it to at minimum sell half when price doubles (if they want a safe investment) or otherwise hodl on knowing it's their best chance of buying a house in the future, or developing their retirement fund. While others who are saving up for a deposit on a mortgage (millennials specifically), or paying off a mortgage and therefore have limited savings, are too worried about investing in anything right now, in fear of losing everything and more. Mainly concerned about being unable to get their mortgages or being able to pay if off in the future, therefore setting themselves back by many years. It's a shame, but I do understand the concern. At any time prices could crash, in any investment market, even in the "safest" with the lowest reward. In contrast, Gen X don't really even consider that a crash could happen, while other generations know how to cope with it and manage risk.
The problem doesn't appear to be the fear of investing in Bitcoin anymore (that's so 2018!), nor the risk, but investing itself (which is a scary concept for many, as a scary reality as well). But we have to remember we live in covid times now. Gen X know to take a leap of faith, while millennials appear to be stuck in the 20th century still, usually anticipating the next market crash that could last a decade, and consider Bitcoin too high risk despite being a hedge against this type of event (mainly due to the covid dump I think). Bare in mind they could also be right, despite BTC's hedge against inflation and a global market crash or great depression that the gloom and doomers predict daily, we never know what might actually happen. The decade long bull market could certainly end, just like it did for gold. Obviously I don't see this happening, I give it a 1% chance at best, but without spending years study blockchain and the economic values of cryptocurrency then it's difficult for others not to consider it a much higher possibility. Those that witnessed the dotcom bubble for example, and probably will always feel they are now too late to invest in anything after saving their money for over a decade.
I honestly think "we" need to develop a new strategy for most of the millennials here, that make up a large size of the population. Gen X are all on board it seems, they grew up in the tech generation and can simply buy bitcoin at a click of a button unless their bank prevents from it. Even the older generations are speculating, knowing it's the responsible thing to do to put at least 2-5% of their wealth in (as if Elon says it's a good idea, they generally don't argue with successful investors). To me it seems like grandparents are more likely to have their grandchildren invest in Bitcoin for them, that millennials who are currently questioning "what the fuck did I do for the past 10 years just saving X per year". They don't want to retreat from their plans.
Maybe this is overgeneralizing for sure, my group of friends aren't exactly the investor type, nor the savings types for that matter, but from discussion with millennials from different backgrounds and classes, the general idea of investing just seems too risky for them. Either the reward is too low for it to be worthwhile (like the stock market), or the risk is too high such as with cryptocurrency. This mentality needs to be destroyed to atttract this generation that are falling behind.
I could be wrong about the stats here, but last I checked, millennials are falling behind and I worry for them!
I am a little bit opposed (and annoyed) by your use of the word cryptocurrencies here, partly because it seems that such use of the term muddies the waters regarding what the fuck are we talking about, and it is NOT like I am really opposed to the conclusions that some people might make regarding a need to diversify out of bitcoin, but learn about what is bitcoin first and what differentiates bitcoin from those various other cryptocurrencies before screwing around with them, so in that regard, I am opposed (and annoyed) by ongoing perpetuation of ignorance that seems to exist when any of us employ the use of such an amorphous term when bitcoin really is the one making the longer term strong case for hedging against various dollar based legacy investments whether stocks, bonds, precious metals such as gold or silver, investment properties (including home) and perhaps some other ways that people might consider their money to be invested (such as in businesses).
Ah this I understand, but in this context, it's more about my use of English I think you'll find. I really hate repeating the same words over and over regarding Bitcoin & BTC (as becomes repetitive, slang reminders appreciated), and therefore swap these terms to include cryptocurrency or digital money etc, so as to use more diverse language. It's more about my occasional lack of ability to structure sentences that require re-referencing the subject more than anything else. You can read any alternative terms I use in that context as a reference to
the Daddy, and
nothing else when we talking about investing. Obviously, if we discuss trading, the context would be different. I can otherwise assure you regarding your deeper concern that I suggest alternatives to Bitcoin to newcomers regarding cryptocurrency investing, rest assured this isn't the case, as would be deeply irresponsible. Apart from those desperate to diversify, then I tell them the high risks and attempt to describe the strategy for stacking sats in this way.
For anyone who's interested and wants to know more generally (which are many), I only talk BTC and small percentage allocations, as well as make clear that everything else is a trade. Especially Ethereum, and therefore best avoided, unless you've got a good year or two of research, study, understanding technical analysis, risk/reward, as well as the concept of only ever trading against Bitcoin (otherwise you'll simply lose BTC value). The other reason why in face-to-face discussions I often reference cryptocurrency or cryptographic money is to reinforce the notion that Bitcoin is a currency that is cryptographic, as it helps to remind people from the onset that it is money as well as likely to more much more secure than traditional fiat, as an alternative.
To elaborate, here's of an example of meeting new people with a highly socialable dog when we get talking and they ask what I am doing for a living right now, and why using these terms "can" be useful imo:
Q) "What do you do for work / a living?" ==> "I trade crypto / cryptocurrency"
A) "What's crypto" ==> "Oh sorry, I mean cryptographic currency" ==> "You mean like Bitcoin?" ===> "Yes similar, but not Bitcoin, I trade other shit for Bitcoin" ...
B) "Oh like Bitcoin you mean?" ===> "Not quite, I trade other shit for Bitcoin. I don't trade Bitcoin for euros, that just seems dumb to me" ...
It's an intentionally misleading approach I know, but it's intended to initially reinforce the key aspects of Bitcoin's technology; money and cryptography combined. The immutual blockchain aspect imo is less relevant as most don't know what immutable means. Generally around 30-40% will want to know either a bit more or a lot more and ask the usual questions, as it's still rare to meet investors who have been in the same for a numbers of years (instead of just this year). The usual questions arise; why Bitcoin, what else should I invest in, and I therefore make it clear only BTC and the best strategy is buy and hold, nothing else, apart from arguably DCA. Many often question about Ethereum, and I confirm it's a great asset to trade due to liquidity and predictability, compared to other crypto, but otherwise a trade and nothing more. It can double against Bitcoin, as well as go to zero. Until proven otherwise, which has not happened clearly. Stick with the no.1 theory, stay the f**k away from deriv exchanges etc. Recently I learnt most newcomers are coming in with 10x leverage and losing all their money, which has become the most recent reason why others are skeptical about losing all their money these days
Having attempted to clarify that, for sure many of us already recognize that there is a lack of conscious practice in terms of focusing on setting some money aside rather than spending it all and other ways of investing to attempt to leverage time now for the future perhaps when you might want to have had built up a nest egg, and really I have my doubts about your attempts to make generational categorization conclusions about problems that extend across generations - and sure there have been some changes in the way jobs are structured and also ongoing changes in the extent to which debt might have been used historically versus how it has changed and could be used in current times, and so if peeps (normies) are able to get access to credit (which is another world-wide distribution of disparities), then frequently there can be ways to use credit to leverage investments (not necessarily increasing consumption through it, which is a BIG mistake that many people make).
Another thing is that bitcoin gives no fucks about various deficiencies that normies might have in terms of identifying it as an investment opportunity that is staring them in the face, and sure if they fail/refuse to jump on board earlier then those who jump on board are going to experience way more of the largest wealth generation than they will - and even "we" or bitcoin does not need them.. bitcoin is going forward to gravitate a vast majority of value into it, whether less enlightened normies jump on board and figure it out or not.
I really am not sure about what kind of potential alternative investment strategy you might be suggesting to potentially be within our grasps to try to edumacate the ignorant masses, dragonvslinux, but the school of hard knocks which is life may well teach them that if they do not get on board at earlier times in their life, they may well NOT completely lose opportunities to prosper from bitcoin's incentivizing more responsible monetary systems, but the upside of their investment (and the compounding effect) is likely NOT as great the longer that they wait. So I am of the school of thought to use any fucking kind of investment strategy that you like, and sure I don't mind helping to attempt to get people to figure out their personal situations in order that they can attempt to better know their own personal situations so that they can figure out how much to invest and how to invest, and so many times once they get passed the hurdles of figuring out their own personal financial and psychological situation, then they are going to be further along to being able to better employ a variety of investment strategies, including DCA, lump sum investing, buying on dip and HODL strategies.
Please note that while I am typing this post, I am kind of coming to the conclusion that part of your point (besides some of your getting wrapped into analysis of generational distinctions), dragonvslinux, may well be that normies have to figure out their own personal financial and psychological circumstances before even being able to know how much that they are even capable of investing, and surely I cannot disagree with those kinds of points that suggest that peeps/normies are not going to be in any kind of position to be able to invest in hardly shit if they do not engage in some kind of decent amount of assessment of their personal circumstances, to the extent those may have been some of the points that you may have been suggesting.
As for the rest, I realise you're almost certainly right. I'm more used to meeting with other millennials, so had assumed my perception was unique to that generation, but likely it's more the difference betwen gen x and most other generations as opposed to gen x and millennials. I'll take your word for it that other generations are the same with their skepticism of investing, regardless of their age. It does seem that gen x are more debt-orientated though unless I'm mistaken, patronisingmore risk prone in general.
You're completely right Bitcoin never cares about average Joe or Elon or anyone/anything else. I do get that, I think it's something you've taught me to be honest over the years, and it'll go up whether the normies invest or not. It's more about my desire to help others who want to help themselves financially. Obviously if someone has no interest in investing, then I'm not going to waste my time trying to convince them to invest in BTC. That would just be pointless, arrogant and patronising. More often than not, I advise that someone doesn't invest if they have their savings ready and waiting to be used for property investment, or don't feel comfortable with the idea, or otherwise don't understand any of it what so ever. Even if I remind them that they also likely don't understand how the motor car works, electricity or SSL certiciates, but trust these innovations regardless. This is always a theory that opens some eyes, but it's a bit different talking about risking money than switching on a light bulb or making an online transaction I know.
You're completely right as well as that interested parties do not need to gain Bitcoin exposure at the moment. Most ask "is it really being adopted right now" and to this I always laugh out loud and say "hell no!". I remind them that Bitcoin is part of the innovators wave. Thus mainly only gamers, tech junkies, programmers, computer literate and the odd mathematician is invested "normie wise". Aside from institutions that begrudgingly are putting there small % in due to their financial advisors warning them it'd be irresponsible not to at this point, now it's made it to a trillion dollar asset class. But otherwise, without someone guiding them through it (which I've done enough times), most people don't stand a chance in buying Bitcoin. To people like "us" it's easy, we teach ourselves and learn to press the big green button. To others, it seems absurd sending money to the abyss. I remind them that the adoption comes from banks and money institutions, so they will still have the opportunity in the upcoming adoption wave by clicking an easy button in their bank account / paypal / otherwise that holds their value in Bitcoin rather than Euros, Dollars, Pounds, etc. Not a green button button, but likely an Orange one, without much need to do anything else but tick the T&C button.
And finally yes, normies need to analyse and asses their own financial situation and physiological circumstances (or barriers) these days it seems, it's not longer about the risks of Bitcoin anymore I don't believe. That was my general thesis
Nice talking with you again and appreciate the opinions, has been a while
