Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 557. (Read 122829 times)

There is an interesting phenomenon that I was watching recently which I believe is also the reason for the recent surge of newbie FUDs. The phenomenon is "number of shorts".

Basically there are people who have been shorting bitcoin (with diminishing effect, interestingly) for the past month. The surprising thing is that the shorting peak starts AFTER price has its major drop from $60k+ to $40k (peak #1) and has been growing a lot in the past week or so (peak #2 and #3 that is 2000% increase) without price seeing any more major drops! Which means most of them have been losing a lot of money which could explain why there is a lot of desperate FUD trying to bring the price down so that their shorts can give them some profit.
Basically these people are borrowing bitcoin to sell it (create a sell pressure that didn't exist otherwise) hoping that the price goes down so they can buy back more bitcoin "in the dip", pay back what they had borrowed and be left with some extra satoshis. When price doesn't go down they lose money because they have to pay back what they borrowed and usually have to buy back at a higher price.




I'm starting to shape a theory that at this point, despite being in a reverse bubble™ the only reason why price isn't shooting above $40k is these shorts and the big rise will start as soon as these shorters lose enough money to be discouraged to continue doing it or simply run out of money to burn.

It's as if the newbie account is defending the defense against FUD and I don't think they will be able to do what they say because this is just a troll being done, of course this is not entirely but I think FUD news from a newbie is not to be seen I only saw are immigrants with anxious expectations.
Everyday in the bitcoin sphere, I know how it feels to save and if one day a crash occurs then I am ready to buy it, HODLing is the main goal of my life in the future with my family it will be future savings.

I see FUD from “newbie” accounts EVERYWHERE, creating topics “concerned” about Bitcoin. Listen you Trolls, Bitcoin experienced a stress test, and it passed! Difficulty will self-adjust after a large loss in hashing power, and there was no network downtime. The FUD and uexpected “events” never “killed” the market. Life is good for Bitcoin. Save money to buy Bitcoin. If you’re already HODLing, continue HODLing.

No, not enough dry powder, but I’m saving again, which I should have done when it was surging. I actually thought that Bitcoin was on its way to 6 digits without stopping and I was enjoying just HODLing.


Get the context, and when the topic was made. It was during 2019 during the absolute of lows, but everyone else believed it could crash lower, scared to buy EVERY dip that time.

To be fair people don't have to buy "every" dip and I dare say they can't. How much "extra money" do people have anyways? Keep in mind that most people don't day-trade so they don't always have the cash.
Usually you'll take advantage of a couple of big dips and make your purchase before running out of money to put into bitcoin and should be happy about it even if "better" opportunities appear afterwards. With that said anything from $30k to $40k is THE dip to buy in.

Uh yea, well, have you bought btc while it was got dump to $29,000 , OP? or are you still waiting the bigger dip then buy?

I really like this part. Imagine your friends or your family saying this to you later 

There are definitely people right now that want to hang themselves, not literally, because they are HODLimg with a loss. BUT, zoom out, just remember that Bitcoin’s trajectory is still on the way up. Five years from now newbies will say YOU are only lucky because you bought Bitcoin under $100,000. HODL, or lose them to Saylor and other billionaires.

Yes.  There are a lot of people who are working on their personal BTC stash, and even if you refer to yourself as a pleb, you Wind_FURY should appreciate that you are quite a ways away from the BTC related circumstances of the vast majority of people.

You likely even run into the situation in your real life.  You tell people about bitcoin, and you may even suggest that they take some action, such as setting up accounts, but people do not do anything.  I personally believe that you have your own hesitancies that remain way too great, and you continue to remain scared about bitcoin, so sure bitcoin is quite likely not ever going to see under $10k again, but there are decent chances that it is NOT going to see under $30k again, either.

Sure, we have a lot of FUD and a lot of negative news in bitcoin, but similar kinds of doom and gloom narratives were happening in early 2017, and when BTC prices had gone to $1,400 and then dipped back to $900.. yet maybe we are more like a August 2017 like scenario where BTC prices went to nearly $3k and then dropped again below $2k or maybe when BTC was approaching $5k and then dropped to $3k..

A problem remains that no two scenarios are going to play out exactly alike, and now there are BIGGER players involved, but sure a lot of them could abandon ship too... so your friends who are much less invested than you do not know, but they should still be getting set up with their accounts, and I am not even going to change myth  recommendation to get started right away.. do not be getting so worried about price.  If it take 5 years or more to continue buying with DCA and maybe on dips, but still the DCA remains a solid approach that does not attempt to time the market like the buying on dip can sometimes get frustrating because you are attempting to add that additional factor regarding how much of a dip is enough, which can end up screwing you into buying too much too early or just not buying enough because you are waiting for a dip that does not end up happening.

Very very understandable. I believe they thought that I might have sold in panic, OR maybe they thought I’m losing all. They never realized that buying under $10,000 was an important buying opportunity because it might truly never see under $10,000 again.

When I told them to get ready for another golden opportunity,



Because I don’t know when it goes up. I’m a pleb. Hahaha.

I could give less than a ratt's ass that it is "your" thread.

Last time that I checked "your" thread is not a self-moderated thread, which means that you need to follow the same forum policies as everyone else.  I doubt that anyone has reported you yet, but if you want to take an attitude,** then likely someone, including yours truly, might decide to go down that road.


**Note that there can be triggers when members such as yourself say things publicly (in a public thread), and once you do say things, then you expect what you said to just stand unanswered and "as is" as if it were the gospel?  Surely responses are not necessarily personal, but sometimes when a member says things publicly such member needs to consider that there may well be a response that might not be the one that you would want to have.



Of course, while we are in any kind of price dip, we can frequently fail to appreciate an opportunity that may well be in front of us, and surely we cannot know when the price dip might be over or close to being over, even if we were to have some theories about why the dip is happening or how far such dippening might go.

So, yeah if you already bought and you are still in profits your thinking might be different from if you bought and you are not currently in profits. 

There are a lot of variations, including that a lot of folks, besides you Wind_FURY blew a lot of their BTC stash at way higher prices than our current BTC price... which is bouncing around the lower $29ks as I type but had reached down to $28.6k in the past hour. and difficult to know if such dippening is done yet, or not.. Sometimes when there is considerable volume being thrown at the dippening, then that can cause others to panic sell, even if they had thought that they were NOT going to be selling.. so even then, difficult to know at what point such dippening is going to reverse...

Personally, I tend to be able to keep buying on the way down, even if dips are severe, but even with me, at some points, I start to run out of money to buy too, and thereafter I have tended to just end up HODLing at the point that I run out of money to buy more.. and maybe buying more once in a while if some more cashflow comes in... which may or may not happen, depending on how long we might be down in what seems to be relatively lower BTC price arenas.

Regarding the friends and relatives asking about your well being, that is surely understandable.  It would be a rare case that they might consider that the dip/correction is a time for them to be setting up their buy plans (and making sure that they have accounts so that they are actually able to buy), so they may well be having some troubles relating to how to deal with BTC price dippening situations.. and surely the dips can look severe in the charts, and likely exacerbated by the severity of the negative news (that may well be exaggerating what is actually going on.. we have surely seen exaggerations happen many times in BTClandia history).

Because, it’s MY thread?


I personally doubt that we could proclaim stock to flow to be broken.  Sure, it is currently deviating quite bit from it's trajectory, but what the fuck do you expect?

For example, let's presume that the highs of the model are not met or even close to being met, such as between $150k and $288k, and maybe even the top of this cycle ends up being "in" at $64,895..., sure there are a lot of variations in between, and I would expect that the model would thereby attempt to account for the on the ground happenings in terms of where the price goes, and either the trajectory could be shifted down or made more flat or whatever, and those tweakenings of the model would come from updated facts on the ground... and should be a big so fucking what...

None of us should be placing high odds into some price prediction model(s) that tell us about the future, when the future is not known.  

Furthermore, I am not even attempting to denigrate the stock to flow model because currently I consider that it remains amongst the best of BTC price prediction models so long as it is coupled with 4 year fractal (which is also already built into it) and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

Anyhow, any of us buyers, accumulators and HODLers of BTC should be preparing for any BTC price direction even if we might vary in terms of how much weight to be given to various BTC price prediction models.

Regarding the buying on dip?  You have any money left to buy?  you waiting for more dip?  You prepared in case there is no more dip?  These continue to be individualistic questions and considerations.. don't blow your whole wadd on one dip.