Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 556. (Read 135458 times)

Bitcoin holdings should be seen as a practice and during the process of holding you should also try to accumulate bit by bit based on your income a that moment. One should have another means of cash inflow to take care of any expenses that may occur during that period of holding, so that the market price during the bear wouldn't make you to panic and sell. It is our decision and determination that can enable one to plan on a good strategy that he can use to overcome whatever financial challenges that will discourage you to sell some part of your bitcoin portfolio.

This thread is not about selling you bitcoin during the bull market for good profit but a thread on how to buy at dip and hold for long without thinking of selling even in the bull market. This is because if you sell in the bull run,you might not be able to get back that same fraction of bitcoin which you have sold in few years or even for life. Before every bull run there is a halving which will reduce the quantity of bitcoin to be mined. Therefore, if you sell all your bitcoin for fiat,which one will you be able to hold on for long when the price might be 10x what you sold earlier.

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The wisest way to benefit from your bitcoin portfolio is to hold for a very long time and continue to DCA.

There is no doubt that human nature varies from person to person, however the decision to sell Bitcoin holdings is not solely driven by market conditions or desire to book gains, there are many other factors those can influence our decision making, such as long term goals, financial situation and  risk tolerance level. The history has demonstrated it consistently that long term HODLERS of Bitcoin are always at advantage, therefore, in stead of booking small gains, wait for the bull cycle to relaize significant profit.

Reflection in this case is of course a consideration for someone to be able to balance their income with the investment they apply. It won't be a big problem if someone is able to manage income and expenses and the money that will be used to invest in bitcoin. Systematically if someone has savings and a decent job with passive income weekly/per day, of course he will find it easy to manage the flow of money he gets so basically this applies to everyone how the principles will be applied in investment patterns in btc.

Someone will be prepared for all forms of risk, financial, psychological and also a strong belief in every choice he makes in investing. In this situation I have a very primitive opinion in their belief in making choices where someone who has the initiative to look at the increasingly advanced digital era will have a more aggressive mindset in collecting btc that will bring him great success in the future. Another factor is that many things have happened and become a reality to behold. Buy and Hold that's the main point in this context.

Absolutely correct,price of bitcoin and the value in dollars can be a big barrier for one to accumulate the actual number of bitcoin in a given period of time but nevertheless, as long as you stay focus and keeping on accumating,you will surely achieve your bitcoin goal. What matters most is your patience and understanding of the present scenario in your bitcoin journey.

Yea,this is the problem that some investors fails to get right, that investing in shitcoin is not diversifying into a different form of assets,rather you are gambling with your investment because shitcoins will definitely depreciate to zero value if you dare try to hold for long. They think because it is easy to buy and it is a cryptocurrency that it has the same potential with bitcoin,and the worst of it is that they will even go to the extend of selling some fraction of their bitcoin for shitcoins. The aftermath will bring regrets to these kind of people at the end of the day,because they lack the concrete knowledge on bitcoin and investment diversification

You are extremely right,for one to be able to hold for long no matter the challenges that come ahead of us,one must be prepared financially and pyscologically. You must plan or create a venue for cash inflow,so that you don't deviate from your target which is either to continue accumulating or to stop the accumulation for awhile but hold strong till the right time comes again,when you feel that you have overcome the cash inflow obstacle to start accumulating again. There must be a balance in your cash inflow and your bitcoin accumulation base on your various means of income to make sure that you don't rush out of cash and won't go to your portfolio during the dip, no matter the circumstances on ground. Because if you lack cash and see your bitcoin investment as the only alternative, you will end up selling at lost and this can even make you give up on your bitcoin investment.

This sounds mostly correct, even though we cannot really presume the number of bitcoin that anyone might have merely based on their bitcoin entry date, even though surely it may well have been a lot easier to get some bitcoin if any of us had been into bitcoin earlier, rather than some folks who might not have know about bitcoin so then they would not have acted in order to get some bitcoin.

Of course, even now there are a lot of folks who have heard about bitcoin, but they either have no clue what it is (even though they might wrongly believe that they know what bitcoin is merely because they heard the word), and then there are even a lot of people who "kind of" know about bitcoin and who might have even bought a decent amount of bitcoin, but still hardly have any clue about what bitcoin is, and part of the evidence of the lack of knowledge has to do with the ongoingly low level of bitcoin adoption (likely quite less than 1%)... showing that we are still in quite early days of bitcoin's adoption and the growth of its various network effects.


You might need to describe a bit better what you are talking about in terms of some of the vulnerabilities that you perceive.. and if you are partially referring to the Luke Dasher loss of funds, then that could surely be an issue but does not really go towards any kinds of meaningful vulnerabilities in bitcoin, even if sometimes there could be some user errors and even failure to adequately secure coins... including that even smart (technologically sophisticated) people make mistakes... to the extent that "we" even really know what happened in that particular case.


We are not talking about shitcoins here.. so maybe you should be more specific.. since the word "crypto" is not really very helpful in attempting to determine what you are talking about exactly.

There are a variety of ways that people could lose coins, but I doubt that you are describing a bitcoin hacking situation in the way that "hacking" is usually understood, even if your friend might have had lost some BTC as you mentioned... but maybe you should describe a bit better in order that we might understand, to the extent that what you are describing might be related to this thread...

Surely, in this thread we are talking about buying BTC on the dip and also holding BTC and various ways to accumulate BTC, so surely the more BTC that we get, the more important it will be that we make sure that our security practices are good enough so that we are either not a target or that we do not somehow end up losing our BTC based on our own sloppiness.. Even though I will concede that being your own bank can frequently be a bit more difficult than having your money held by third parties, but it is not always the case that it is more complicated, and surely many of us likely realize that there are a lot of advantages that potentially can come from holding your own coins, so long as you do not end up losing them because you do not know enough about how to do it properly (or better practices to try to make sure that your coins are sufficiently secure, especially for the quantity of that you have accumulated that can increase in value quickly, as many of us have discussed in this thread).


I think that you are being unclear to be talking about bitcoin and continuing to use the "crypto" word.. because it is really vague to be referring to bitcoin and using the term bitcoin.. so maybe you should clarify.. or just stop using the "crypto" word if you are really talking about bitcoin.

And, in terms of your suggestion that "people should be allowed to convert to bitcoin." People can do whatever the fuck they want, but we are not talking about selling bitcoin in this thread.. we are talking about ways to accumulate and hold bitcoin and perhaps ways to figure out how to NOT screw up in various accumulation strategies in terms of trying to be able to take advantage of dip periods to buy BTC or to hold rather than to sell, if that might be some of the inclinations that some people might get when they see BTC prices going down at a fast pace.


For sure it can take a while to get used to bitcoin and the various ways to use it and to store it.. so I cannot really disagree with you about these last points that you are making.

Yes it will be very difficult to have one bitcoin when it has exceeded the next ATH cycle while the lowest price will not be as low as last year's price so you can imagine how difficult it will be for them to achieve that, but it will take a yearly process to reach 1 Bitcoin.

Human nature is always different, for example if they already have 0.5 BTC and when the price is expensive then they will definitely sell it because they see a high value, whereas people who want to achieve the goal of 1 BTC must be consistent throughout their long journey, I know some people are salaried the price is not that big so they will only set aside lower than what is expected.

Still, the golden opportunity is now not waiting, buy dip now if you have lots of money.

When we proffered for the extreme,no need to worry on the results.We need to wait till the market react for the investment.When the market is the bear one,the process of buying should be continue till the one complete btc is reached.The saving of one bitcoin before the 2017 was quite easier because of high payment of bitcoin because of less value of bitcoin through the signature campaign.The people who had saved their campaign payment 2017 or before will have bitcoin more then the complete value of 1 Bitcoin.The continues buying using the bear will also result to the maximum savings of the traders.



The big blunder done by the old users will be cash out to their fiat at the needed situation.During 2016-2017 period,the bitcoin was hacked from the many wallet.People who had their bitcoin in the cold storage had secured a lot.Some of the crypto wallet was hacked and my friend 9 bitcoin was stolen.He get that bitcoin as their birthday gift from his uncle.Even now the elder people of crypto should gift their young people with some bitcoin and allow their to convert to fiat.So that the young people had their first experience with the bitcoin.It allow them to trust the bitcoin and start to use of bitcoin as their investment tool.

It might not be much, but I believe after the next bull cycle is over, most of the new entrants will obviously have a harder time in owning one whole Bitcoin because it would be too expensive. It would probably not be lower than the last ATH.

Although, there might be more golden opportunities to come.

 

The Federal Reserve and other Central Banks of the world have printed so much paper money, "FREE MONEY", for more than 10 years, pumping the economy, that it makes everyone more reckless. But with the aggressive tightening and the rate hikes, there might be hard landings in many regions of the world coming, and this will make assets DIP including Bitcoin.

No one, except for you, can determine if you made mistakes in your selling of bitcoin during the March 2020 dip down to $3,850-ish.. .or if you might have over invested in terms of feeling a need to sell on the way down. .in which thereafter, the BTC price has not returned even close to those levels.. especially after September 2020, we have not returned below $10k or even really come close to $10k (the lowest so far was right around $15,479 in November 2022).


I already talked about this diversification question.  The solution to not having your financial and psychological matters together is not necessarily diversification.. but maybe you are using the term differently since there can be some need to have both cash and bitcoin and then running out of cash as the BTC price is falling may well be considered a lack of diversification.  So in that regard, surely it might have had been helpful to have some spare cash during such a March 2020 liquidity event in which even if you might not have had to use the cash to buy BTC (whether referring to you specifically or anyone who is reading this thread and went through difficulties of perhaps selling BTC during that March 2020 period), you might not have had to feel some kind of necessity to sell BTC at the wrong time (or at a time that did not end up being a good time to execute such)


Of course, no one knows, and that is part of the reason to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction .. and even extremes, so in that regard, even if you might not be completely prepared, you are not acting like a deer in the headlights and completely panicking based on lack of preparations...

Sure, it is not likely even comfortable for anyone who is even prepared for extreme events, but it is likely a heck of a lot better for those who have done a decent amount of preparations, even if they might end up panicking a little bit, they might save themselves from panicking a lot... because sometimes those kinds of situations could cause very irreversible abilities to recover and perhaps even ending up with only 1/3 of the coins that you could have had if you had merely just held through the whole thing.. .. and some people never recover.. they turn bitter and they fail to act or they come up with very deficient strategies to deal with those kinds of situations.


Even if any of us might be prepared for extreme situations, then we still might not be completely ready for how extreme it ends up getting.. so it could be the case that we don't disagree on this point... and sometimes diversification is merely having both cash and bitcoin rather than just bitcoin, but still if the cash runs out because you keep buying and the BTC price keeps dipping, then maybe the only thing that is left is just to wait every two weeks to figure out whether to buy and then in those situations, there might still not be comfort buying, but instead just letting the cash reserves to build up..   Everyone is going to have some slightly different ways to attempt to prepare for these kinds of matters, and some will make greater mistakes than others, and not everyone will learn from their mistakes, so it surely can be difficult to describe any kinds of exact blanket solutions, except for people to attempt ot make sure that they study their own finances and their own psychology in order to best coordinate what they are doing with those financial and psychological factors which include at least attempting to consider your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments (including cash reserves), your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Well, in this case at least you already have a target and of course it's still very good to do. but of course with the condition of human nature with our dissatisfaction with something, I think you can still continue with ambition if you really want to.
You can do that target for the start but when it's achieved, then what? Life still goes on and we still have to keep writing history for ourselves so there needs to be a new target for that. Even though greed is not very good, of course there are new targets to be achieved when your old targets are exceeded so that with that we can reconsider for the next step.
I also didn't want to go too far at first because my focus was only on buying a little and focusing on my savings but after that I realized and now I'm trying to want more and for that I still DCA again and again for now while watching conditions also for utilization when the price is below for my current goals.

There are precarious situations that always need to be considered even though we have developed the best plan for long term investment. I'm sure anyone would consider selling their bitcoin as long as they believe it's the best option for survival or the only option that will help them out of a disaster. Drying up sources of income will force a lot of people to sell their properties including digital assets like this, and actually that's not a problem at all because we don't have to hold bitcoins forever.

The Covid disaster has taught us something, especially about how we have to manage investment plans and adjust things well. I believe bitcoin is a reserve for some people instead of gold or other investment assets, but I think they also need to diversify their assets to other assets instead of just bitcoin. No one knows when we will have financial problems that will force us to sell, it could be when the price drops a lot or it may be lower than what we expected. Having other assets as options is good, so I think it can never go wrong.

All of this seems to be true.. and at the same time, the best that we can attempt to know is our own current budget, and to attempt to figure out how aggressive that we might want to be.. whether we make our evaluations in the amount of bitcoin that we accumulate or the goals that we set or we attempt to evaluate the dollar value of that accumulation or some kind of a combination.

I think that at the same time, we should be able to plot out a variety of possible BTC accumulation scenarios in order to attempt to have various aims that might show how our valuation of those various BTC accumulation scenarios might play out depending on our own cashflow circumstances, how well (and aggressive) that we might be in our BTC accumulation within such projected future scenarios and surely changes in the BTC price along the way will both affect how many BTC we are able to accumulate in a certain period of time and how it is valued (in dollars) at various points in the journey.

I like to create Excel spreadsheets to project scenarios, and from time to time, I can either update the Excel spreadsheets or change scenarios or change the name (maybe just by keeping the same name, but including the date in the name).. so that I am able to go back and look at some of my earlier projections as compared to how my current BTC accumulation is going and how the price changes might have affected how it actually looks in a specific way as compared with how I had projected it to be at earlier points of time, whether i go back at certain low points in the BTC price in the past or high points or even a few years versus going back for nearly 9 years (and surely I have some of similar kinds of cashflow projections prior to my including bitcoin into those projections, so I can see pre-bitcoin versus after including bitcoin too).

No one really can know how it will play out. or even whether goals might be exceeded or underperformed in various ways, and personally, I think that I tended to try to be conservative in a variety of my projections, and even though I considered myself to be modestly assertive and persistent in regards to my BTC accumulation, but still at the same time, I have various locations in history in which I know that mistakes were made.. but at the same time, I can see that some of those mistakes caused set backs, but they were not as overwhelmingly damaging as sometimes they might feel at the time when they are made.. while at the same time, there can be ways in which mistakes are made. and it cannot be exactly clear regarding if things could have been done differently, if I had thought that I was already engaging in a kind of good practices.. and surely I feel lucky for NOT making even BIGGER mistakes that I know some others had made along the way that contribute to their later being bitter and resentful regarding mistakes that they could have been more careful in avoiding.


I believe that you have the right idea Sim_card, but I would still frame the matter differently.

Sure, some of the diversification could come from selling a certain amount of bitcoin, but it also could just end up being a kind of tapering of some of the cashflow into other areas in order to get some price exposure to other areas, whether it might be stocks, or property or to some business or some other kind of way that a person might want to try to ensure that not all of his investment is ONLY in bitcoin.

I doubt that i was ever of the view that I should sell all of my bitcoin, but there were points in time in which I had gotten down to 85% bitcoin and 15% cash that was in my investment portfolio (when I started in bitcoin, I already had a bunch of other investments that largely related to various kinds of index stock funds, property and business matters.. so I did sometimes calculate in terms of what value I had allocated to bitcoin.. and sometimes within that part of my investment portfolio, I would consider bitcoin and cash.. and so there were always some cash reserves)..

So initially when I projected out my bitcoin strategy, I had considered that I would sell more bitcoin as the price went up as the BTC price was going up, but as the BTC price went up, I became increasingly reluctant to sell a lot of it, which surely can end up with some regrets or difficulties when the BTC price corrects 70% or more.... but I still figured out some ways to try to be comfortable with continuing to mostly hold BTC and not to be selling a lot of it, even though I knew that I would suffer in the valuations when the price went down.. which still is the case today when I still hold way over 95% of the BTC allocated funds in BTC and quite less than 5% in cash that would be for buying on dips. or even some kind of a DCA application.

It may not be very clear in the earlier days of BTC accumulation how to play the holdings of BTC or even how much BTC that you might want to sell on the way up in order to accomplish more diversification in your overall investment portfolio or maybe you just start to channel cashflow to those other areas, and likely you would end up tailoring whatever you end up doing to your own specific circumstances, that would be more informed upon your entertaining those questions at the time that you are ready to start to employ them which might end up playing out a bit differently from what you initially had planned to do.. and I am not even suggesting not making a plan.. it is likely good to have a plan that you make early on and then to either follow through with it exactly or to tweak it in various places along the way in order to hopefully account for your having more and better information that you will be able to specifically act upon at a later date.

You may well be saying the same thing as me.. just that you had said it differently, so I am not even suggesting that you are not already thinking in a similar direction as me on this topic of how to manage the portfolio at a later date down the road.


I think that it is true that if you end up accumulating bitcoin early on, and you continue to study bitcoin, and you might set some early BTC accumulation goals, and sure maybe they are easy or difficult, but as you accumulate more bitcoin, you might come up with more and more ways and more and more reasons to accumulate more BTC in such ways that you end up accumulating more BTC than you had initially thought that you had wanted to accumulate.. and so if you do end up engaging in those kinds of behaviors, you still have to likely ONGOINGLY make sure that you are comfortable with what you had chosen to do.. both financially and psychologically.. even if there might be some wee bits of discomfort that comes with  any kind of potentially aggressive approach or over accumulation approach but hopefully not so much aggressiveness or over accumulation that you cross the line into gambling rather than investing.. and it is not always clear how far that you are able to go without crossing the line.


I agree and it is best when the conviction is coming from within yourself, even if you might rely on some information from others and some reinforcement, but ultimately you have to figure out your own balance because no one is going to give any shits about you if you fuck up.. except for yourself.. and you are responsible for those decisions, and the same is true for the no coiners, the low coiners and those who chose to be overly whimpy in their approach to BTC.. some of the whimpy ones will come along later.. and each of us has to figure out our own balance, and many of us bitcoiners already realize that there are a lot of folks who are way under allocated to bitcoin because they ongoingly and persistently continue to get off of zero.. and they may well end up regretting their lack of taking action down the road.. who knows? who knows?  Maybe they will end up being right?  hahahahahaha .. I doubt it, but you never know for sure.. that's the thing about taking risks and figuring out a comfortable allocation level in order that you can still live with your situation (financially and psychologically) if the investment thesis of bitcoin ends up not playing out even close to as great as you thought it would and even in a negative direction..


Yep.. we have to be careful NOT to have to be forced to sell any (or all) of our bitcoin at a time that is not completely of our own choosing, and for sure the March 2020 scenario did force a lot of weak hands into selling BTC and perhaps even selling more than they would have had preferred to have sold - because it is may well be possible that they well never get those BTC back.  That is one of the examples to have reserves and maybe even excessive reserves.. and if bitcoin is serving as your reserve, then you may well be over-allocated to bitcoin.. in a kind of way that does not make a lot of sense... but you do not know until the situation comes and then you end up panicking... and those kinds of situations are not easy, even for highly convicted bitcoiners to either HODL or to buy more or if they have to sell.. to sell as little as possible... and each person will have to be responsible for the level of extreme dire that s/he had put himself into by those kinds of outrageous and extreme scenarios that sometimes end up playing out in the real world rather than the world that had been imagined the the delusional investor who invested too much.


You are exactly right Greyhats that diversification might not really count very much if it is not spread into different kinds of asset classes, or at least attempted to be spread into non-correlated asset classes.

One of our current economic problems have become that so many asset classes are so much tied into dollar/debt systems that a lot of them are going to end up seeming like they are getting fucked at various points when the dollar gets fucked...

but at the same time, the dollar might be a piece of shit, it still has value flowing into it from various other fiat systems that are even in worse situations.. and I am not even proclaiming to realize how it is all going to play out, but still other fiats do end up flowing into the dollar and a lot of the incentive systems of the free market are hard to read because of the various perversions of the various debt systems around the world.

Another diversification mistake that people make is their believing that their investing into shitcoins is diversifying, when the overwhelming majority of shitcoins are tied to the performance of bitcoin, so the diversification is likely not real at all.. and if anyone believe that they should by some shitcoins in order to "diversify" then at least if they try to minimize the number of shitcoins that they buy, then they can at least acknowledge that they are not really diversifying into any other different industry or not as much as some folks might want to proclaim them to be accomplishing by buying various shitcoins.. merely because they are easy to buy and might not be very easy to exit.. when the shit hits the fan (or at times that you might want to exit them).

I agree with this statement, there is a certain point in time when you need to de-risk your investment portfolio so you start a diversified strategy. When to do it is a pitfall, and the other is most common trap I see is if all diversified assets are linked to one economy then you are not truly diversified. Some economies do better than others, some are safer than other some are more risky than others but putting all your eggs in one basket is a risk, whether that’s only going into one thing or if all the things are only linked to the success or failure of that one economy. I do like Bitcoin in that there are no borders

I have no way of agreeing with your plan because humans are basically never satisfied with what they have. Bitcoin is money, you can never give up on the amount you have without trying to accumulate it again as long as you are confident and have the budget to do so. 0.5 btc is not much, but it might be a lot for your current financial capabilities.

The time will come for you to have a bigger investment portfolio if you can do it consistently. Investments don't need to be forced and you have to be wise enough to set the direction of your income and expenses, so save as much as you can. Also some plans have gone haywire for some reason even unexpectedly. Do you remember when covid happened, many of us or investors had to sell a certain amount of bitcoins because they lost their source of income because of the lockdown.

I agree with you on this, because every investors know how many bitcoin they want to accumulate. It all boils down to the mindset,income and bitcoin goal of individuals. Mr A might choose to start accumulating his bitcoin till it gets to 2BTC because he knows that in few years he can achieve that,and Mr B can also feel that all he needs is 1BTC and he try his best to accumulate this over some period of time.  Likewise,Mr C can come up with not having an actual amount which he wants to accumulate but because he loves and believe in bitcoin, he decided to just keep on accumulating to see how many Bitcoin he can accumulate for a long period of time without a target in his mind. What you said it is true,some investors accumulate to their bitcoin goal and after some years, they decide in double their portfolio due to some reasons.

Yes when one feels that he has accumulated enough for himself,he can diversify to another asset. Some investors believes that there is a particular fraction of their funds that should be invested into various assets. For example, if he wants his bitcoin investment to be 10BTC,immediately he accumulates to that amount,he will stop and diversify to some other assets and nothing will change his mind because this was his plan.
I must say that information is power. Personally, I was thinking very shallow on my bitcoin journey, I thought that if I can accumulate up to 0.5BTC that I have attained my bitcoin goal,not until when I saw this thread and started reading about members contributions on accumulating and holding for a very long time. My mindset towards my portfolio changed and I got motivated by you and some others to just keeping on accumulating more bitcoin, and I am very happy with this understanding and knowledge on the secrete towards accumulating and holding for as long as possible. My plan initially was to hold a certain amount of bitcoin till the bull run and sell off to make profit and buy at the dip again but that plan has been canceled. So I will say that newbies who only have little target to accumulate little btc is because of lack of proper knowledge and mentorship or guidance that will inspire them to go beyond their bitcoin accumulation goal. Newbies will lack that insight to see the potential of bitcoin in the nearest future on their own. This is what will make them set lower accumulation goal for themselves.

I do agree with everything you have said. The idea of people not holding all of their finances in Bitcoin has really been talked about so much here, and there is nothing bad talking about it continually because I really believe in making sure people understand what I do know about Bitcoin so that it will be easy for them not to repeat some mistakes made out of ignorance, which has led to certain misconceptions by many people. But the truth is, we cannot make everyone as knowledgeable about Bitcoin as many of us here are. The reason is that some people are too lazy to read up on the complete information they see, and some people also don't listen correctly to what you tell them, so they might not find what you are saying very interesting until they make some mistakes.

I will give one funny example: I talked to someone about Bitcoin, and he asked me about where he could easily buy and sell Bitcoin, and I called a few platforms for him (CEX and DEX), but in my absence, this guy created an account with a CEX I did not also use; he used his card to fund the account; he bought Bitcoin and tried to withdraw it, but unfortunately he was unable to do so. Although he did not complain to me for some months, but one day he called in on the telephone and started complaining. So, i fixed a meeting with him, and after we met, I realized that the guy bought the bitcoin on a CEX that requires KYC before he can withdraw. There were no other options to withdraw those funds unless he passed the KYC, so I told him what has happened, and we had to pass the KYC, which took 24 hours before verification. He even needed a little loan help to solve his needs before we could withdraw his funds from that exchange.

In essence, it can be frustrating when one doesn't get full information and goes ahead to do otherwise. About that guy, he bought Bitcoin and did not even hold it for four months, then sold it without any profit, and he almost also got his coin knocked on the CEX because he failed to get complete information from me.

There are many scenarios to look at, but all I can say is that Bitcoiners, mostly newbies, need to buy Bitcoin in a way that they will not feel so compeled by needs or emergencies to sell it off so quickly without any profit.

Well if you have pretty decent knowledge (and/or expectations) that the BTC price is inevitably (or nearly inevitably) going to be volatile, then you can attempt to prepare yourself financially and psychologically for that.. and surely the ways that people prepare themselves is likely going to be different, and surely some people do not even realize that bitcoin is likely going to continue to be volatile (and/or they don't engage in those kinds of financial/psychological preparations to actually prove that they understand the inevitability of BTC's ongoing volatility).


Personally, I don't believe that you are using good logic in terms of the extent to which share prices in something like an exchange would actually reflect the extent to which they are going to be profitable, and surely with any business that you buy shares, whether you are referring to exchanges or other things, there are going to be a lot of risks (and costs) regarding execution, so even if they might not be purposefully trying to cheat you out of profits, the investment thesis for shares in an exchange hardly seems to be as straight forward as you seem to want to make it out to be.

In other words, you don't even necessarily need to be greedy.

Bitcoin seems to be one of the best asymmetric bets that is available to a wide number of people, and holding the assets yourself gives you price exposure and also control, even though surely there is also likely to be some learning curve matters that people may well not be competent enough or spend enough time to make sure they learn how to hold their coins and to lessen various aspects of risks in holding your own coins and being your own bank... so yeah, holding your own coins has risks and responsibilities too and it's not exactly without some potential problems that might include getting duped into thinking that you are controlling your own keys when you are not recognizing some of the vulnerabilities, which seems to be one of the matters related to Ledger wallets in recent times that people are realizing that they had likely been putting way more faith into the security (or even the exclusivity of the private key ownership/knowledge about) of Ledger wallets than they might have deserved.


You have to make those kinds of calculations for yourself.

Sometimes you might well end up taking a perfectly profitable investment (such as bitcoin) and then cause it to become less profitable (or adding more unnecessary risk) because you are greedy or you believe the the amount of the likely return of the underlying (bitcoin in this case) is not enough for you.

By the way.. in 2017, I was having some forum interactions (and it may well have had been another forum) with some shitcoiners who were proclaiming that shitcoins were better than bitcoin because bitcoin does not have the ability to go up as much, and largely between 2015 and 2017, bitcoin had gone up 78x (
from $250-ish to $19,666-ish), so it seems difficult to argue that there was some kind of "need" to be in something else.. something more profitable... but people (shitcoin pumpers) are nearly always making those kinds of dumbass arguments.. and some people get tricked out of their bitcoins and into inferior investment based on those kinds of considerations.. .and surely you can do what you like while it seems to me that bitcoin is already a great ass investment, so the extent to which you need to try to make more might be questionable.. even though perhaps it is a position-size question rather than any kind of absolute answer regarding if you have to choose one over the other, if you come to some conclusion that you want to some price exposure to some kind of an investment that relates to bitcoin.. but is not the bitcoin token itself.


You seem to be really getting into this topic, which is largely irrelevant to this thread.. or maybe it is a kind of side topic that you might want to pursue in some other thread or to find a thread that is more related to that topic...

It's not good to get too far away from the topic of the thread, unless kind of a incidental consideration.. members (and even admin of the forum) likely prefer that we at least try to stay on topic and not to deviate very much... even if some deviation may well be tolerated.. but it seems that in good faith, we should at least try to stay somewhat closer to being on topic.


Yes.. you are pointing out some of the issues that may well not be worth making your own investment more complicated than it needs to be, but sure no problem.. people get distracted into all kinds of stuff that causes them to spin their wheels rather than appreciating a good thing when they see it (i.e. investing directly into bitcoin.. and trying to stay focused on the prize rather than easily getting distracted.. but hey, whatever, you do you.. maybe you will strike it richie while many of us bitcoiners are all crying that we "ONLY have bitcoin"...   ).. hopefully you do not lure too many bitcoiners out of their BTC investment and into inferior distraction-based products.  

As you say the only guarantee we have is that Bitcoin will be volatile. But what can we conclude from that? The only ones who don't have to care as much about where Bitcoin is going are the exchanges as they make their money on volume. Wouldn't it be a reasonable approach hen as part of a diversification strategy to also own shares in the infrastructure in addition to Bitcoin itself?

I know that centralized exchanges are not the optimal investments as some of them are prone to collapse even when nobody saw it coming, but I am not only referring to centralized exchanges. When there are decentralized solutions that have some integrated DAO function where people can acquire shares by holding a token in the DAO, wouldn't that also have a diversifying effect against Bitcoin's volatility? Whether it goes up or down, the share and the total $ value in volume would count and as a shareholder you would benefit from volatility no matter which way it goes.

What do you think about that?

When Bitcoin goes down and trading volume goes up, an exchange like Binance might be suffering from devaluation of their Bitcoin reserves, but they probably have a diversification strategy and convert enough of their revenue into "stable" currencies like fiat or USDT. I often think that all these exchange owners care more about volatility than about Bitcoin's price going up. Owning a part of the more solid infrastructure has been like owning a gold mine over the last decade (if the exchange was managed well and didn't go bankrupt).

Unless the industry collapses disappears, in my opinion it could be a good hedge to own both Bitcoin and the infrastructure facilitating trade and transactions. I know that the options to own a share in the infrastructure are not as manyfold and sometimes carry their own risk, for example when you buy BNB hoping that the burning will go on forever, ignoring the risk that even Binance could collapse as FTX has proven that nothing is impossible.

Sure.. but there is still a balance even if choosing when to start diversifying if at all.  Of course, a very early investor might spend a lot of time in which s/he has no other investment except for bitcoin, so it does not make a lot of sense to diversify for the mere sake of diversifying - even though I do seem to understand and agree with your point that at minimum, there may well be a need for some cash reserves in order to be able to take advantage of likely ongoing and potentially severe BTC price fluctuations and surely one of the ONLY thing that might get closed to being guaranteed in bitcoin is that it is going to be volatile.. even if we might not know exactly in what direction such volatility might end up happening.


It seems to me that the vast majority of more well to do investors (and seemingly smarter investors) are likely going to have a certain amount of diversification in the assets that they hold - but philosophies in regards to how much diversification is preferable is going to have a decently large amount of variance in terms of both personal preferences and also in terms of some personal characteristics of the investor.. so I doubt that there is any exact one stop shopping when it comes to the question of diversification or not or how much to do it.. and could become more problematic for investment newbies to be believing that they need to diversify for the mere sake of diversifying. which largely might end up reflecting more that they both don't know what the fuck they are doing, they are diluting their investments and also they might just be blindly throwing darts with some kind of expectation that one or more of them might get lucky.


I am not sure if that is a good example.  I doubt that Lazlo is having very many regrets.. he likely has plenty of dee cornz... and surely in the early days someone needed to be spending some bitcoin in order to help to figure out price and to just get bitcoin exchanging hands beyond the geeks who were mining it (and one of those earliest mining geeks was Lazlo).. and I am pretty sure that there are other stories about Lazlo having plenty of bitcoin too.. but no need to really get into those kinds of stories here.

I do understand your point regarding guys who sell way too many bitcoin too soon, and make all kinds of errors in which they are either forced out of their bitcoin or they fail/refuse to recognize bitcoin's value because they may well be valuing bitcoin too much in terms of wanting to buy inferior goods or services or to make inferior investments rather than hanging onto some of their coins and spending their dollars or other fiat first - or maybe sometimes, if they had given the value of bitcoin matter some thought (in terms of potential future value), they may well even have some other assets that they could be spending, rather than spending their bitcoin.


You know that past performance does not guarantee future results, and for sure many of us likely need to go through some balancing in terms of how we are going to manage our BTC - and sure, largely I do not disagree with you, since I have spent the last 9.5 years mostly accumulating bitcoin, but I also did most of my BTC accumulation in the first few years, so sometimes at a certain point, any of us might be able to figure out that we have enough bitcoin, so part of any balance that we might strike is going to come from a certain amount of trying to figure out how much of a balance of BTC that we might try to keep, and perhaps trying to plan to make sure that we are not giving up too much BTC along the way.. but if we had figured out in 2015 that we needed to get to 100 BTC in order to be at fuck you status if the 200 moving weekly average reaches $10k and then we would be a millionaire and we would be set.  However, in 2020, we realize that maybe we might need to be at an evaluation of $2 million to be a fuck you status since $1 million might not work anymore.  So then part of the question might be regarding whether we might need more bitcoin or not, if we had already reached our earlier goal and maybe we even met the later redefined goal, since currently it takes only around 80 BTC to be at $2million valuation..and so we are largely above fuck you status.. if that might be part of our aspiration in terms of both having enough and then figuring out if we need to exceed those amounts or where we might believe that we might want to hold some of our other assets, if we might not have anything other than bitcoin.. but as we already discussed, there may well likely be some preference to start to diversify once we start to build our investment portfolio to higher and higher amounts, and maybe at a certain point, we have way more than we had thought that we would end up needing (and that would not be a bad problem to have).

But yeah if you are referring to members in their earlier accumulation years, they may well be struggling to get up to 1 BTC, and maybe it could take years and years and years to get up to 1 BTC, and maybe they might be better off setting lower accumulation goals for themselves, if they happen to just be getting started in their BTC accumulation journey.

I will probably classify this as fear of the unknown, which I believe you must have overcome and let slide as part of your past experience. When you are constantly checking the price of a coin without even allowing the market to settle down and make a drastic move. If you are not strong enough, you might fall victim to high blood pressure (HBP). And at the same time, you might not be strong enough to overcome a bearish market; you might end up panic selling, which you might regret later.


Well, this is all based on the investor's financial decisions; you never know what the investor takes very seriously. Let's say, for instance, that there are a lot of investors who see gold as the real deal; they have all their assets invested in gold, which some financial advisers will say is unwise, but to the investor, that's his choice, and it's working fine for him/her.The same thing is also applicable to Bitcoin. If I have a stable cash flow from a white-collar job and I just want to invest my funds somewhere, I will probably choose to invest them in Bitcoin. The reason is that I have developed a lot of trust in it, and I'm fine with it. Since they are just my investment and not where I'm paying my bills from, there will probably be no issue with the drastic change in price.