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It’s not about the qualities of each, and what has the qualties that the other doesn’t. It’s about the size of the market of each.
I don't know what it is about, exactly, but I will throw out a few arguments here and there just for funzies.. and probably actions speak way louder than words, including in my case that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I considered bitcoin as a substitute for gold. In other words, bitcoin is serving the same functions.. and even MOAR better that that less useful and manipulated the fuck out of thing-i-lie.
There are Bitcoin maximalists who believe that Bitcoin “will eat up Gold’s market”. Debatable from both sides of the debate.
You can surely count me in the camp of bitcoiners who believe that bitcoin is going to continue to eat gold's lunch, just like it already has been eating its lunch, and likely the lunch eating is going to continue and perhaps even become more and more pronounced with the passage of more time... if you cannot already see it.. maybe at some point you will start to see what has already been happening.
It is quite likely that bitcoin is going to end up 100x or 1000x the market cap of gold even though it will likely take another one to five cycles to make it through some of those higher valuations.
Size of market matters more in my opinion. Let’s wait for a Trillion Dollar Bitcoin market.
Don't we already have bitcoin at a trillion? So gold is at 11 trillion or so, and so will not take very long for bitcoin to reach gold parity and then we get into the 100x to 1000x, which could take longer... like I already said.
Bitcoin’s market cap is $1 trillion, but the market size itself, especially the liquidity, is not, and very far below, from the trillions. Double-digit-billions of liquidity cannot provide the depth for it to become a World Reserve Currency, BUT it is on its path going in that direction.
Patience young padawan.. we are going to get there (at least it seems quite likely).
I’m sorry my master.
hahahahaha
I am using those kinds of expressions just to harass you, and it seems like it is working..
I was just thinking that Bitcoin will need to get a large portion of Gold’s market to be considered a practical World Reserve Currency, with enough market-depth to retain value, and be stable, or maintain lower volatility during crashes, and during bear market cycles.
Of course that could end up happening in the coming years, could take 50 years or more to develop or might never happen..
Doesn't it end up being a BIG so fucking what? in terms of current considerations about where bitcoin happens to be and a lot of other stuff going on..?
Yeah sure, its not like I cannot see bitcoin going in that direction, but still it does not seem to be any kind of immediate concern - unless some kind of ideal circumstances occur in which confidence is lost in various other systems and all of a sudden there wide-spread confidence to put value into BTC... yeah, sure it could happen and it could happen quick and sure there are a lot macro circumstances suggesting that it could happen quick, but still seems to be like a big so fucking what.. if it happens it happens, and many of us BTC HODLers benefit a lot, but no way that we should be desperately relying on such a scenario to happen or even close to happening to be able to profit the fuck out of bitcoin (if we have not already) from its likely ongoing price trajectory that are in more probable scenarios rather than waiting for some kind of pie in the sky reserve status blah blah blah...
Regarding getting gold's market cap, that seems almost like a done deal already whether it happens this particular cycle or it takes one or two more cycles.. and didn't we suggest it is around 10x to 11x to reach gold parity (in terms of market cap), and depending on how you measure BTC's performance, we can already see that from a $5k-ish bouncing off point, BTC has already had 10x to 11x price appreciation in about the past year (accounting for the major dip in March 2020), but doing another 10x or 11x from here seems more than reachable in terms of reasonableness and prudence (even if it is not guaranteed to happen), it has pretty damned decent odds for anyone actually understanding in any kind of way what the fuck seems to be going on, currently and why BTC's price is continuing to rise in spite of it having had already risen a whole hell of a lot in the last year and even a whole hell of a lot in the previous years.
There were a large number of smart people who were calling bitcoin a overinflated bubble at $3k to $6k blah blah blah.. and then they seem to not have any fucking clue about how to analyze bitcoin because there are still a decent amount of "too smart for their own good" peeps out there who have hardly any way of wrapping their dumbass heads around creating their own prudent and practical strategy around bitcoin, including ONLY needing to put 1% to 10% of their investible assets into bitcoin in order to be in a position to potentially profit from bitcoin, just in case it might happen to catch on. hahahahahha dumbasses...
And by the way, sure we can appreciate that there are a certain decent number of those previous categorized dumbasses who are actually coming around to bitcoin and starting to figure it out.. including realizing that they do not necessarily need to take a large position in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously, even though some of them (once they get it) have difficulties in restraining their lil selfies to a 1% to 10% position, and why the fuck should we care (as HODLers?)... we benefit from the fact that there are some peeps who are starting to "get it" even though there are still plenty who still do not "get it."
I have a new shower thought. Bitcoin might see an extended bull market on 2022.
That's not really that "new." Sure, so far, bitcoin has seemed to have had patters of repeating its peak periods within a kind of 4-year pattern that is almost eerily "on schedule".. like it is almost programmed (which could not really be the case that human behavior is actually locked in to having to comply with any kind of imposed timeline in terms of exponential s-curve adoption or whatever other dynamics are driving bitcoin's price - beyond a mere 4-year fractal pattern... so yeah, surely bitcoin price dynamics could blow outside of the four year fractal.. We have already discussed a couple of the recent BTC price rise patterns, 2013 and 2017.. so 2013 had two exponential periods that largely played out in a year and 2017 had one exponential period that drug out for nearly two years before climaxing. So, sure I think that it could still be in the cards that 2021 could end up having two rather than one exponential periods that could then cause the price rise to drag out longer.. but who knows for sure until after the fact, even if we might be able to sense what might be happening while it is happening (but we are not sure about it), and so even if we might not be sure about what is happening or what might happen while we are in it, it remains decent to understand the realm of possibilities to be able to assign probability values to the various scenarios that might unravel in front of our eyes in order to be prepared both financially and psychologically for both upside and downside scenarios that might end up playing out... so in that regard, sure we might end up assigning higher values to one theory or another theory and then we end up being correct about the theory that we assigned the most probability, but still it does not hardly mean shit that we had happened to be correct because none of it is guaranteed until it has already happened then it is guaranteed - even though some of us describe history in different ways too, even though it already happened to have happened.