Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 560. (Read 122724 times)

I am not debating.  I said what I said, and I have not changed.  Get the fuck started sooner rather than later, get your shit together and start buying.  Yes, DCA is the best starting strategy.


What has been your possible average or meaningful budget for buying BTC for the past 5 years (when you registered on the forum), Wind_FURY?

Let's just say... $1,000 per month

Have you beaten the DCA performance for the past 5 years?

Total invested would have been $65,250 and you would have gotten about 13.5x return.  Pretty damned good no?  You are more greedy than that?  Gold would have gotten you 34.24% over that same time and equities would have gotten you 42.09% over that same period.  

If you could have gotten a better return than 13.5x on bitcoin or any other investment strategy, let me know.. There is no reason to poo poo bitcoin's historical performance because even if you ONLY end up getting a faction of that 13.5x in the next 5-10 years, bitcoin is still likely going to be a good investment and DCA investing is a solid approach to investing in it in the coming 5 to 10 years.



Nope.  There never is no wrong time to buy BTC, so long as you have at least a 4 year investment timeline, and having more than 10 years would even be better.

Get your fucking shit together and figure out what your approach would be.  I suggest the consideration of three methods to get into accumulating BTC.. and like I have already said several times that is lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips.

Of course, there are some other considerations as well including getting your shit together, establishing your budget, etc, and the three buying considerations would be matters to start to look at and consider.  


Yes, we already covered that several times.  I said that I thought that you gave bad advice, and I also backed up why I said that so do you believe that we need to keep going over the same thing?

You want to say that I was wrong because the BTC price came down 50% blah blah blah..

Well fuck that nonsense.  I already said a zillion times that mostly I am not fucking around with timing and hesitating and blah blah blah.. but sure, anyone can do whatever they like including hopefully plugging their individual circumstances into those three approaches to accumulating BTC in such a way that is personally comfortable to them.

 

Of course sounds good in theory... and if you are just saying it but turning it on and off, you are probably being a wee bit wimpy in your approach.. so again, the devil is in the actual application, and surely I wonder if you have been able to achieve more than 13.5x in the past 5 years.. which would have been your results with straight forward and regularly consistently applied DCA approach.  Change the quantity to $100 per month ($25per week) if needed, but the percentages will be the same.. which is a 13.5x return.. not bad, not bad.  And solid as fuck in spite of your complaining about some wee bit of buying some BTC at higher prices during parts of the time.

And look at mine which is 7.5 years.. so I can ONLY plug in 7 years.  Mine shows 42x returns. which is pretty much in the ballpark of where my portfolio is at in terms of percentages (not talking about the quantity that is shown in that linked chart... You can play around with the quantity, the frequency and the period of time in which you would have been buying in).  I doubt anyone should be complaining about 42x returns in the past 7 years or thinking that they could have done better blah blah blah.

It was very clear for me. Wasn’t it very clear for you? When you debated last month that everyone should be buying “at any price” and apply a DCA strategy? That was the wrong time to buy. Everyone was euphoric including me, but I was hesitant to tell close friends and family to buy because it wasn’t the time. NOW is the time to buy + apply a DCA strategy, when everyone is in FEAR.

Buy the dip, and HODL.

Exactly one of the reason that any person or institution should not be buying and betting on ONLY one price direction.

If they believed in bitcoin at $60k, then they should believe in it at $34k, too.

So, largely Slow death, you are suggesting why there are likely problems to advocate and employ ONLY a lump sum investment strategy. 

Personally, I doubt that we should be giving too many shits about people who invest in ONLY one direction because markets are going to frequently chew the fuck out of those kinds of investors if that happens to be their one trick pony - and bitcoin has shown itself to be especially ruthless in terms of punishing folks who might come to bitcoin with a bit of naivette and expect to get immediate returns if they are buying in on a price uptrend...especially around 5x to 6.5x territories (if counting from the bounce off from September 2020 starting around $10k).



We are talking about bitcoin here... who gives any shits about crypto?


Again, crypto?  who cares?

You want to rephrase the point that you were wanting to make and talk about bitcoin?  Elon was tweeting about bitcoin too..   but anyhow if you are trying to suggest that shitcoins are leading the bitcoin price, you not only seem to be off topic, but also a bit of lacking in recognizing and appreciating who the king daddy is... or at least framing the whole topic in either an amorphous way are considering that the various scams, shitcoins, projects, pump and dumps need to have a central focus in terms of analyzing what is going on.. sure they could be mentioned, but seems a bit of a never ending mess to get into that crap in this here thread... and make the focus even less (good) than it already is.



oh gawd....    you cannot stop with your muddied-ass crypto discussion.. go somewhere else with that nonsense...

Do you have anything that you would like to say about bitcoin, apart from your first paragraph?   Go on.. you can do it.. focus.. focus...

I have my money to buy bitcoin and I confess that I spend hours looking at the chart to see what would be the ideal price to buy and the price drops a lot and this is a time of great caution on my part and I wonder those people who bought it when the price was $60,000, now they are suffering big losses and it is not known when the price will return to $60,000... this is the big risk of this cryptocurrency market, a lot of people got on the elon musk wave and started buying cryptos nonstop, i remember those days watching twitter from an altcoin creator saying he took 100 million dollars and compared bitcoin for the price of $36000, i hope people buy cryptos based on your own judgment

Of course I did.  What do you believe that I have been responding to.. besides spouting out my own ideas.


Sounds as if you have not been reading my posts.

To succinctly attempt to summarize my stance, I am saying that any person acquiring bitcoin is going to take a different approach depending on his situation in terms of his he overall in an accumulation phase, maintenance phase or a liquidation phase.
 
Accordingly, if a person is in an accumulation phase, then accumulation should be divided into three categories, which is lump sum investing, DCA and buy on dip.  Of course, HODL is in there too for peeps who run out of money.  So even if we might start with a default category of dividing up the three categories into three and perhaps equally allocating, individuals who put thought into what they are doing may well lean more towards one or another and even have varying strategies within each category.

So for example, if you have no cash then its not like you can keep buying, but if you have no cash you may have already fucked up because you did not adequately prepare your three categories and/or within the categories... so in that regard, you may be left in a position that you have no choice except to HODL...

On the other hand, if you have been in bitcoin for a sufficiently long period of time, you have already been around the block a few times, so you should already be prepared for potential extreme BTC price action in either direction.. we have seen that a million times (maybe I am exaggerating a wee bit?).

Ok.. yes, I appreciate that the BTC price pretty much went straight up from September 2020 until mid April 2021, and so I understand that there were all kinds of peeps talking about the supercycle and blah blah blah.. but any long timer bitcoiner who got caught up in that hype ONLY has himself to blame for believing that bullshit.  Sure we all make mistakes, but it still remains our responsibility to prepare for a variety of extremes, and part of what I am suggesting is that the longer that we are in bitcoin, we should have been able to have set up these various systems and if we have not been successful in that regard, hopefully we can figure out some ways to learn from our mistakes including taking into account a kind of system that I am proposing in terms of both dividing your new money into three categories and also attempting to very much individualize to your own circumstances, and you are likely going to continue to get fucked if you are too unrealistic in your BTC price expectations and you end up betting too much on one direction rather than the other and then you are not prepared when the price goes against your bet.



Fuck that nonsense.  You are failing and refusing to take responsibility for some aspects of either your lack of preparedness or your attempting to retroactively figure out what to do.. Ultimately, you do need to tailor some kind of situation that works for yourself and none of us can really know about extremes in BTC price movements before they happen and we are only fucking ourselves if we try to place too much predictive power in one direction or another and NOT adequately prepare ourselves for both directions in terms of both extent of price changes and also in terms of the amount of time that it may take to play out in one direction or another.

I will admit that when I came into bitcoin in late 2013, I had already been investing in a variety of other traditional assets for around 25 years, so in that regard, I had already established an investment portfolio and a variety of practices that I learned and tweaked over the years.

I hardly made shit from my overall traditional investments over the 25 years, and I started out pretty god damned poor.. so I think that when I went through my ballpark estimations of my returns through those 25 years, I had gotten an average of something like 5.5% per year on average.. but part of the matter that put me ahead is the fact that I just continued to build and save and try to learn and NOT really attempting to take too many risks.

So when I came to bitcoin I attempted to apply the same kinds of practices that I had already learned.  I did not have any kind of outrageously fortune to put into bitcoin, and even in the beginning, I had not even realized what my overall allocation was going to be, but I took a set sum of money that I had, and I spread that out for 6 months (I think that it added up to around 2% of the then value of my overall investment portfolio), so my initial tactics were largely DCA with an attempt to front load a wee bit into bitcoin.  When that first 6 months was coming close to ending, maybe around 5 months into it, I pretty much authorized another 6 months on the same terms.. so after 6 months, I was more or less thinking that by the end of 12 months I might end up getting up to 4% of my total investment portfolio into bitcoin.

In the beginning, I considered that I was investing into bitcoin in such a way that I would not feel that I would get reckt if the whole investment went to zero - while at the same time, I was hoping that in the long term my investment into BTC, my attempts at learning along the way and my attempts to tweak and maybe even develop various strategies would end up resulting in at least a similar return as my overall traditional returns of at least 5.5% and I was really aiming for a minimum of 6% per year returns in the long run to actually feel quite good about my bitcoin returns.

Sure, when I got into bitcoin, I had already been able to review the charts and to see that there had already been two price exponential periods that year that added up to around 100x price returns that year.  I was not fooled by that, and I appreciated that such then BTC prices were not likely going to be sustainable in the shorter or longer term, but I still wanted to establish a system to make sure that I got a stake in bitcoin and to just continue to buy in accordance with my plan which initially was to divide the first 6 moths into 26 weeks.. so I took my allocation amounts and I had a weekly allowance from that.. which surely was NOT whale-like amounts...especially when looking at what I was doing on a weekly basis and even spreading those amounts through most of that first year of my investment into bitcoin.

What I am trying to say here, Wind_FURY, is that NOT only am I attempting to make suggestions that attempt to apply similar principles that I had already applied early in my BTC investment and also to things that I had learned even before coming to bitcoin, I am also attempting to share information regarding how guys from a variety of circumstances can also attempt to apply similar practices to what I am suggesting and what I have learned through the years.

Of course, guys have to learn at their own pace and frequently each of us has to learned by putting matters to practice and frequently suffering a few burns along the way.  I surely got burned several times in my whole investment life, yet I understand that each of us is capable of learning and there are surely some guys that can learn from the mistakes and even the learnings of others without actually having to do the dumb shit themselves.  We surely vary in regards to both how we learn and how aggressive we might attempt to be based on matters that we know or think that we know in regards to what has not played out yet.


I surely attempt to appeal to plebs, and I have been saying variations of the same fucking thing since I got into bitcoin, and frequently to tell people to get the fuck started as step one, and surely each of us can figure out aspects of our own approach, but we gotta get started.

Actually, to be fair, it seems that I did not really say much of anything about bitcoin to my friends, relatives and other acquaintances in real life until about late 2014.. so I had already been in bitcoin for about 10 months before I began to say anything.  And, surely there was some variation in what I was saying to peeps in the very beginning about bitcoin as compared to what I said as I continued to learn, but surely a common staple was both to get the fuck started and figure out your financial circumstances so that you can know how much to invest including attempting to follow DCA practices.

I never bought any sub $100 BTC, and I believe that the cheapest bitcoin that I ever bought was around $182 in mid-January 2015, and probably got a bit more than half of a bitcoin from that because I only had around $100 to spend.  Surely, I understand the feeling of running out of money because I recall in that particular round I had blown a lot of whatever I had left in order to buy BTC in the upper $300s in early December 2014.. but the BTC price kept dropping.. fuck that.. and I also recall that my average buy price was in the upper $500s around that time, even though the BTC price ended up gravitating quite a lot in the mid $200s for most of 2015... so fuck that too.. but it happened and I held through it, even though I ended up having some cashflow issues with a business that I had in early 2015 that caused lots of difficulties for me to continue to buy bitcoin during that time.. and lots of people (no coiners including ones that I was telling about BTC in late 2014) were telling me to sell and take some value off the table because bitcoin was not looking good blah blah blah... and it surely took a while to get out of the red.. at least for me.. but I continued to practice what I preach.. and continued to try to learn along the way too.




Hm?  Does not seem that I am saying that exactly, but I am saying get the fuck started. whether the price is $60k $30k or whatever.  Also figure out a strategy that accounts for the three that I mentioned, and then account for your various other circumstances.. which is also not easy to do, and that is cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak along the way including possibly using various financial instruments (which I tend to recommend against the more complicated approaches.. and just get your basics in order).



I attempt to help people to tailor their approach to their own situation.. so does not matter if they are poor as fuck or rich as fuck or somewhere in the middle.. they better have BTC in there somewhere otherwise they will end up on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever seen... And who's gonna want to be on the wrong side of that?  Whatever.. it takes a while to get comfortable with both what BTC is and also to develop a meaningful and self directed strategy.  Of course, there are so many normies who have hardly any clue about their own finances and psychology besides just ballparking it... but still I suggest that they can get started based on their ballparking and then get their shit in order as they are starting to invest in bitcoin .. usually I recommend $80 per month as a starting point, but surely people are going to have some variations in what they are both able to know that they can do or that they can adjust what they are able to do after they get their shit together.. so getting their shit together continues to be quite an important aspect of any financial strategy whether we are talking about bitcoin or not.



I think that people are going to get stressed if they buy at a higher price point and just sit and do nothing, but they have to decide these kinds of matters for themselves, including if maybe they may have made a mistake if they had either put everything in at $60k and then don't have any money.. then they have to wait until either they have more cashflow or they get their shit together.  NO one should be putting themselves into a position where they have to sell at a loss... so if they are doing that, then they are overinvested.

I also believe that no one should be investing money that they need on the short-term, so having at least a 4-year investment timeline is good, and having even a longer timeline of 10 years or more is even better...



Yeah, but how are you going to know?   That's part of the problem.


Nothing wrong with the concept of not FOMOing.  I believe that my suggestion of having a plan and executing such plan is to help in regards to getting emotional about your investment.  Of course, with any BIG price moves, people are going to get nervous, and it can take a long ass time to build up some financial situations that you are a lot less nervous.. and if you are starting from nothing or you are in debt, then frequently it could take a while to build your self out of that including considering various ways that you might be able (or should) be investing in yourself too. rather than consuming or wasting money on depreciating assets or not paying very close attention to your own personal finances.. so it surely is helpful to get your shit in order in a variety of ways so that you are taking out the emotions.

Regarding, your comment about "everything" bitcoin is not everything, so there may be some needs to figure out what the fuck bitcoin is in order to be able to properly apportion your approach to bitcoin as compared with other assets, currencies or investments.  Surely, no one is just going to know or understand bitcoin from the start, but that should not be stopping people from starting a bitcoin investment plan, studying it along the way and then attempting to be able to figure out how bitcoin is different from other investments including better being able to understand the various underpinnings of the currently valid BTC price prediction models and how those models might influence both thinking and planning around BTC investing.  Just to repeat, the currently valid BTC investing models are 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.

If you talk about cryptocurrency, then it will give you a general impression for discussion. See how different it is between bitcoin investing and other altcoin investment. Also if you decide to invest in bitcoin then you have minimized the risk of investing in the long term on the ground that the price of bitcoin is known to have increased every year.

I'm sure you've said the right thing, but the hardest thing to get rid of before making an entry are doubt about the potential they'll get from bitcoin. It is almost certain that whenever a bitcoin price correction occur, the market will recover after some time. But I believe there are still many people who dare not make the decision to buy because there are risks involved.

Didn’t you read anything that I have been posting? Are you suggesting that we should blindly buy Bitcoin at any price, no matter how limited our capital is, and capability of buying the dip, and no matter how stressful this is for a person’s sanity? You are a whale, who came in at the right time, we are merely plebs who try to invest our money efficiently because we never had the same luck as buying Bitcoin under $100 as you.

If I told close friends and family to FOMO buy Bitcoin priced at $60,000 and DCA down, they would be in a state of financial loss, and stressed out. They are not poor, but they are not multi-millionaires like you. The money is still important to them.

But, if you believe that your way to buy the dip is better, then OK. I will never buy on a seller’s market when everything is overpriced. I’m also very confident that everything in the market corrects itself, and we should never FOMO.

We are not talking about "crypto" in this here thread.  We are talking about bitcoin... no one is trying to apply the buy on dip and hodl concept to some amorphous concept such as "crypto" because it is not likely going to work very well because there are different pumpening and dumpening principles at play when referring to "crypto".. so fuck that shit.. try to stay focused on bitcoin, here.

We are also not buying and selling tokens.. we are buying bitcoin or holding or various other tactics in regards to bitcoin, and so part of the recent discussions in this thread have been about whether this particular dip might be over yet or not.. talking about bitcoin.. focus.. focus..

If you want to talk about some shitcoin, token or crypto that is not bitcoin, then do it in some other thread... surely the way that you talk about your tactics of anything not bitcoin is going to be different if you are not focusing on bitcoin.. . which focus is what we are attempting to do here, in this thread.

That's right, bro, only those who dare to take risks will become successful in crypto. we must have the courage to take the right decision after reading a variety of information and analyzing a variety of characteristics so that it becomes a benchmark in a decision to buy or sell tokens.

LOL, I think this's the human nature not to want to lose on investment decision. I will never feel that I have understood all aspect of investing because all this time I have only learned the basic of investing and tried to practice them in small amount. This allows me to gain experience which will be a factor that will support me in achieving my future target.

It might feel a little funny when someone I meet tells of experience with previous investment. Having a number of valuable asset make it difficult to sleep and makes him nervous about making decision. As long as his asset have not been sold, he is always thinking about the right time to enjoy the profit. But it was only after enjoying the benefits for some time that he was disappointed because his decision only made him fail to get a bigger profit. In essence, even if someone know that the potential there is in this investment is quite large, there are time when they cannot overcome the desire not to enjoy immediate profit even though the market is bullish.

I am surely NOT going to disregard people who are very hesitant to act, and I run into so many of them in real life.. and just suggest to just get started with some small amount of DCA'ing and that will at least cause them to pay more attention and to learn about the asset that is somewhat interesting to them but they feel confused about it both in terms of it seeming to be a passing fad and that most people do not want to feel that they had gotten duped into investing in something when it is either at its top or damned near that point.  So, surely I can relate to those kinds of peeps.

And, any of us can feel that we are lacking in a lot of knowledge about bitcoin, even if we have been in it for a long time.  I sometimes feel that way in current times, but such feeling of lacking of knowledge can be even more overwhelming when first coming to BTC.. and then there is the parts about whether even trying to understand any aspect of it is going to get better, even if studying it.. and so I suppose those kinds of lacking in knowledge and feelings that question about whether there is going to be any meaningful ability to get some kind of grasp (or angle) will likely become a bit easier to latch onto when actively investing whether that ends up being $80 to $1,000 per month or even some very small amount -  though sometimes going below certain amounts, such as $80 can cause the relative portion of fees to be higher depending on what kinds of options are available..

I recall when I used to engage in direct transactions of BTC with people, I would say that I am not even going to bother transacting with them unless they were transacting for at least $300... but anyhow, if some kind of exchange relationship is created, then some of them will allow for pretty damned small transaction amounts, even as low as $5.. but that may well vary too in terms of what kinds of "getting BTC" options might be available.

@JayJuanGee, I feel like what you say above is to differentiate who really has the success of investing in bitcoin. IMO, success belong to those who dare to take risks supported by knowledge, experience and analysis. In fact, often we will hear disappointment in those who are hesitant in making decision because I believe they are not equipped with sufficient knowledge and experience in investing.

Of course, I am not attempting to talk about everyone for sure or even to attempt to pit one group of "many of us" against another group of "many of us" who felt differently, because the actual many of us hardly has too much meaning except to attempt to capture perceptions of the BTC price movements at that particular time.

Think about it Wind_FURY.  Guys like me were denying that we were in a bear market until that final collapse from $6k to $3k that happened in November 2018 and kept us mostly in the $3ks (mostly mid-to upper $3ks) for about 4 months.. and sure I am not even suggesting that I was close to even being able to proclaim my lil selfie as being part of "many of us" at that particular point in which I had ONLY conceded of had been in a bear market because of the November 2018 cutting in half of the BTC price.

So, by the time that the BTC price rise that started on April 1, 2019 came and started from about $4,200 on that date, there was a lot of skepticism in regards to whether such then UPpity BTC price action was going to be sustainable and to cross above certain price thresholds and therefore put BTC prices in such an UPpity cushioned area to allow for calling the $3,124 bottom of December 2018 as being "in."

So, I am not even proclaiming that there would have been much if any kind of consensus about either what was going on with the BTC price or what would happen with the BTC price, but my the time mid-May
2019 passed and the BTC price passed quite above $6,500 there developed some level of consensus at least regarding feelings that the "bottom might well be in" and yeah we know where that Aprll 1 BTC price rise ended up going by the time the end of June 2019 came, but when we are in the midst of it we surely do not know either how far UP it is going to take us or how hard corrections might subsequently happen, but at the same time many of us were appreciating that it was going to be a whole fucking a lot harder to either get back down to the December 2018 low of $3,124 and even that the proclamations of $1k to $2k BTC in the near future were looking way more ridiculous by the time mid-May 2019 came along than they had seemed to have been in December 2018 and January 2019 and even before the early parts of the April 2019 price rise.

 

It did end up surging.. that is kind of what was so surprising about that whole fucking April 1, 2019 to June 27, 2019 price rise.. it pretty much surged all the way through that whole thing without hardly any corrections, even if many of us (possibly even a vast majority) remained quite skeptical regarding how far or how fast it would go UPpity.. but whatever we fucking felt, the price surged the fuck during that period even if we still were having troubles appreciating such surge while it was happening.


I think that you are putting way too much credit (and emphasis) into market sentiment actually causing BTC price moves, and I seem to be describing those as either then happenings and not really attempting to describe sentiments as much if any price driving forces - even though I am not going to deny that market sentiments can play some role in price direction, I largely consider market sentiment as a pretty damned small factor in terms of driving price direction rather than anything that we are trying to use to figure out either which way the BTC price might be going at the time that we measuring it or to claim that it actually caused the BTC price to move.. but of course, on the margins we can surely get some additional momentum that is actually based on market sentiment in either direction.. and for sure FUD spreading and even FOMO spreading do attempt to play the sentiment angle to actually attempt to contribute to price movements.. but each of us still need to be careful in terms of putting too much emphasis on one aspect or another in terms of BTC price movement causations.. especially when attempting to predict future BTC price movements, but also we might end up getting our past descriptions of BTC price movements wrong because we are spending way too much time on factors that had smaller effects than we are attributing to them.


hahahahaha

We (the royal we of course) should fire you from being the OP of this thread.. even though you do have some of the buying on dip values and ideas.. but holy shit if you are attempting to emphasize so much of the dip and trying to get the timing right, you are likely causing way stress upon yourself... and sure, I should not be repeating myself too much in terms of what seem to be complementary ways of accumulating and not getting so damned maniacal in regards to whether you were able to buy those BTC at $36k or you actually got them at $32k or you waited for $15k and maybe you will get some and maybe not.. and maybe when the BTC price were to hypothetically bottom out at $25k and you are waiting your ass off for $15k, you may well look like a dumb fuck a year or so later when the price goes shooting up to $200k and then never corrects below $65k ever again.

Similar things happened so many times in BTC's history. 

Consider 2015 when guys were waiting for sub $100 BTC and the lowest that the price went was very fucking short lived and did not spend any time below $200.. but people continued to wait for those kinds of prices until the BTC price went to $500 in late 2015.. and then it finally confirmed that sub $500 was over in May 2016 and further confirmed in August 2015.. but peeps continued to wait for sub $100 coins and even continued to move their prices up through out the process but their buying price was too god -dammed little because they were greedy fucks who were in denial of the power of king daddy.

So in late 2016 and early 2017, there were lots of peeps waiting for sub $500 coins that never happened and they were too greedy to buy at $800 and $900 which was the lowest points of those dips.

I already mentioned that in late 2018 and going quite a way into 2019, there were greedy fucks waiting for $1k to $2k coins and the lowest it got was mid-to-lower $3ks.

I probably do not need to give further examples because sure you can put your own little spin and give examples in which waiting paid off, yet in the end, there is still a balancing regarding individual factors that include such matters as how many coins that you already have.. and other pretty damned important individual factors that I should not need to list but may as well mention them again:  cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn along the way, tweak from time to time including reallocation, trading and even using financial instruments for the more bold of folks (which I surely do not recommend overcomplicating matters with such crap that ONLY a few are really capable of managing with any kind of meaningful positive methodologies).

“Many of us” still had negative sentiments, which explains why the market was not surging. It was the months before the halving during 2020 that many of us started to push for the narrative of PlanB’s S2F, which I didn’t believe because I thought it would already be priced in.


I only want to buy Bitcoin in a fire sale. Simple.

I will agree with you that on April 17, 2019 we still thought that we were in a bear market, but by the time about mid-May 2019 came, many of us realized that around April 1, 2019 we had come out of the bear market.. so by April 17 we were already in the early stages of coming out of such bear market, but had not realized it for sure yet until we had a bit more UPpity BTC price action to confirm it.

Of course, there are differences in BTC price dynamics in a bear market versus a bull market, but we might well not know which one we are in for a while, and then there are differing definitions and assessments regarding whether we are in a bear or a bull market.. and fuck traditional assessments when it comes to defining which one we are in.. because bitcoin is a bit of a unique beast, and should be considered upon parameters and the most convincing of BTC price prediction models that are  currently in existence which are 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

So sure, you might dicker around a wee bit with your attempts to figure out whether we are in a bear market or a bull market, but if you are not adequately accounting for the prevalent BTC price models, then you are likely just living in a bit of a fantasy world in terms of whether you are assessing a bear/bull market.

Another decent concern is if you believe that you are in a bull market and you are buying in dips like crazy then surely the risk is that you got it wrong and then you likely have to wait 3-4 years just to get back to break even in accordance with the BTC buys that you already made.

So sure, there can be a few differing ways to attempt to adapt to subsequent assessments of where you might be in terms of bull or bear market.  I otherwise stand by the assertions of my earlier posts in regards to some of the better practices of continuing DCAing and probably being a bit liberal with buying on dips and even considering that we are still in a bull market as I type this post.. but sure do as you believe is correct and time will tell if you have adequately prepared for UP when it happens.

The topic was created during the middle of a bear market, a time when none believed Bitcoin would surge back above 2017’s ATH. My mindset was Buy the dip and HODL, and be ready for that surge. Plus the dips during the lows of the bear market, and the dips during the highs of a bull market are not the same. A bull market is a seller’s market, a bear market is a buyer’s market. After the crash, the sentiment is starting to become bearish. Be ready to Buy the dip, and HODL.

Sure, it takes a long time to study the BTC space, watch the BTC price movement and attempt to figure out short term and longer term price models and maybe attempt to figure out where we have been, where we are and where we might be going from that.

And, even if a lot of us spend similar amounts of time studying similar data, we likely come to the space with our own differing life experiences and even financial and psychological positions that are also going to inform our assessments regarding what kinds of actions we are going to take in regards to bitcoin accumulation and how to do it.  Inaction can also end up being a kind of action too, even though it seems to me that inaction would likely be less thought through in most cases because anyone who studies the space should be coming up with some kind of plan that involves action - that hopefully also goes beyond pure waiting - even though there are some folks that decide their action is going to be to wait, so maybe I am giving too much benefit of the doubt that thinking through these kinds of matters should automatically lead to action and that waiting is NOT good enough.

Actually, Wind_FURY, there should be absolutely no problem that any of us would want to bring our own experiences in the matter, but there should also be some sense that both you and I are attempting to speak to either the nocoiner or a hypothetical person who has way too few coins (for example they are less than 1% invested into bitcoin).

Maybe back to a hypothetical person who has $100k in various investments.  My suggestion is that at minimum that person better fucking get at least 1% into bitcoin in a fairly decently short time frame, such as less than a year... and if the investment is $1k, sure s/he could just lump sum something like that into bitcoin in a less than a few months in order to timely get to a minimum level of recommended allocation.  After getting to the minimum level of allocation, then thereafter there is more freedom to dicker around with various other philosophies, tactics or whatever.

For sure, I am not going to deny that one of the most common situations of the regular Joe is that he hardly has shit for any kind of investments that really fall into categories of investments, and he is in debt up to his ass on anything that he proclaims to own.  So if he were to add up all his assets and all his debts, he might not even be very far in the positive.. and what he does own may or may not be very liquid... So, maybe we have to attempt to address that guy too... the one who hardly is even capable of getting his shit together so that he would both be in a position to plan and take action on his plan once he has created one. 

So, for sure, guys like that both get scared to carry out a plan and they tend to be inclined to gamble (whether they call it that or not).  I personally doubt that there is a need for regular joes to totally get their shit together before investing in bitcoin, but they can get some kinds of ballpark ideas of their cashflow and then work on improving their assessments and building an actual investment portfolio that ends up bringing into the positive territory and will also cause them less likelihoods to panic upon BIG ass price swings like the one that we still seem to be within and to be able to continue to buy on a regular basis or at least to appreciate some buying on dip and maybe some need to HODL if they had already bought on the dip and run out of extra investing money until their next paycheck.

I suppose that part of my point in this particular post is that I completely agree with the thesis of this thread in terms of buying every dip and HODL..and sure there are some supplemental practices that should likely be applied too - but getting fucking scared because a dip happened should not be amongst the first of the reactions, if you actually believe in the overall thesis.. so there should be abilities to continue to follow the plan in a kind of prudent way... and by the way, we are not at $60k right now Wind_FURY.. so if you and/or other guys already went all in at $60k and you are feeling hurt because those higher level investments are not doing so well right now.. and there is even potential that they could continue to get worse, then maybe you are feeling that you are out of the buy on dip mode and have only the ability to HODL.  There surely are going to be variances in terms of where guys are at and if they blew too much of their load at higher levels, whether buying at the top (which is not really what is being proposed in this thread) or if they bought too much on a dip that they thought was "the dip" but the price kept dipping, even after they bought.. and reasonably those dip numbers should not have fucking been $60k or even $58k, but I could see a decent amount of aggressive buying within the them of this thread at around $55k and even lower $50ks and believing that to be the dip that was being waited for and that there would be no more dip (or not likely to be more dip) (subsequently discovered to be erroneous thinking).

I am somewhat trying to figure out ways to largely stick with the theme of this thread, even though personally I do believe in both supplementary practices, and even though you were the author of the OP of the thread, to me, you seem to have some difficulties in regards to whether you really believe in the OP of the thread, and sure you are free to change your mind.. that's for sure.  I recall participating in a DCA thread once, and the author of the OP wrote a very good description of what DCA was and even seemed to advocate it, but after a while he was all over the fucking place, and many of us should realize that DCA has some underlying values in terms of applying to asset classes that you already have confidence in their fundamentals, so in order to be effective with DCA you should be continuing to follow and apply such principles.. in my thinking similar with buy every dip and HODL.. once you believe in the fundamentals of the asset that you are applying the concept/practice (in this case bitcoin), then in order to stay most effective with such practice, you should be able to continue to apply such practices rather than turning them on and off, and if you turn them on and off, they will likely become much less effective... especially if turning them off on a dip.. .. but then the million dollar question remains how much of a dip is enough dip.... which is never going to be exactly clear, either.. even if still believing in the fundamentals of the asset (in this case bitcoin).

It’s a personal choice, and for me, who has been observing the market for, more or less 6 years, it was obvious that everyone was in FOMO after it had reached and surged above 2017’s ATH. I want to buy in times of fear, to get a better deal for my limited capital. I’m not rich to buy Bitcoin priced at $60,000, and keep my sanity after it crashes -70%. Haha.

Part of the problem is that you are never going to know for sure if you are buying at the bottom or if the price is going to continue to go down.  For example, if a newbie nocoiner had just heard of bitcoin in January of this year and had absolutely no coins, but as we recall the BTC price went above $50k and stayed mostly above $50k for about 3.5 months, and even some people (not going to name any names) were saying that BTC prices were never going below $50k again, so even if you wanted to get some bitcoin to prepare for UP, you might be feeling to just get started otherwise you do not have any if the BTC price were to go up and $50ks happen to be the lowest that the BTC price goes.

If you are buying for the long term, you might not want to get too obsessed about whether you feel good or not in the short term.  Of course, you feel better if you buy lower, but you are not always going to know, but if the BTC price goes up in the long term, then likely after several years you keep buying you should end up in the positive.  So I surely suggest set up regular buys, and maybe small amounts such a $10 or $20 per week, and then just have an additional amount that can be used to buy more BTC on dips without acting (or even expecting) that you are going to know for sure how much of a dip is enough so maybe you end up buying at the dip below $50k at $48k, and then again at $43k and then $38k and $33k..

and you start running out of money and getting frustrated and have to wait for more money to come in, and maybe you are not really able to buy below $38k because you are running out of money and so you decide to just HODL.. Hopefully, you are not deciding to sell and buy back lower.. because that is a very dangerous strategy and frequently causes folks to end up with fewer bitcoins and lots of stress waiting for lower prices that might not happen.

It can take a while to both build up your BTC holdings and also to have them in the profits, and I personally believe that people should not be kicking themselves or trying to get short term feelings of moar better and so there can be some ways to balance the strategy and to plan ahead the various buying regularly no matter what and also buying at various points on the dip while expecting that you do not know for sure how far the dip is going to go or how long it is going to last... but if you are investing in something with strong fundamentals (only talking about bitcoin here.. not about some stupid ass shitcoin - does not matter which other shitcoin, just applies to bitcoin).

Also, in tradition assets and historically, it could have taken guys 30 years to 40 years to invest, and maybe they build a good sized nest egg, but there are no guarantees.  Sure in bitcoin there are good chances to cut that way down, such as cut the investment timeline in half, but still there are no guarantees, but as you build your wealth (and your investment portfolio) longer and longer it should both increase in value but also give you a lot more options because it is increasing in value (just might not seem so on the shorter timeframe, even 2-4 years might feel like you are not making a lot of progress... but persistence and having a solid non gambling system does tend to pay off and sometimes even way better than expected even if in the short term it is more difficult to see).

For capital preservation, and conservation, it’s obviously always better to buy an investment as low as possible to get more during the times of “ uppity”. Capital is limited, we should use it carefully. Plus it’s also better for the investors’ sanity. Hahaha.


It was a mix of FUD, whalecumulators sold, and market liquidations.