Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.
That is the volatility in Bitcoin DCA value, its always unstable and there is the possibility to have a bear market and a bull market in the same cycle let's say in the 1-year range we see multiple times when Bitcoin change its direction in price and this has been the market sentiment over the years and that is not going to change since it the nature of the market, bitcoin is designed to remain volatile in price and that is what makes it a speculative asset.
I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Odusko in regards to both the advantages of DCA and the difficuties to figure out BTC price directions during short timelines; however, I may had misspoken a little bit in terms of whether I consider it to be realistic or even meaningful to be labelling switches from bullmarket (or bullcycle) in terms of short-term BTC price happenings, and in that regard, I refuse to accept some of the traditional market assessments regarding what is considered to be bull or bear markets, and largely so far in bitcoin's history, price cycles have tended to play out in four year periods, and it can be quite difficult to know (or to have solid conviction) whether a bottom (or a top) is in, and frequently we are not going to really know until quite far down the road, so there is a bit of a lagging indication regarding whether the bear market is over or the bull market is over.. ..
Yet, even within a bull market we can experience strong and lasting price corrections that would not necessarily constitute that the bull market is over, and in my thinking, merely because we experience a variety of large and/or lasting corrections within bull markets does not justify that the sub movement should be called bear/bull trends.. merely because they are either corrections or they are runs within an overall trend that had not really been broken.
So currently there are questions in regards to whether the $15,479 bottom from November 20, 2022 is the actual bottom for what had been determined to have had been a bear market.. and so whether we have yet transitioned into a bull market or not can still be unclear, and even negated in the event that BTC prices were to return to somewhere within close proximity of those kinds of $15,479 price levels or even go lower.
This market volatility can be beneficial to both long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders if they know when to take profits or cut losses the ability to make that decision accurately is what makes the difference in the percentage profits that come along with holding Bitcoin.
Even though no one can speculate on the direction Bitcoin will go in whatever price trend either in a dip or bull run Bitcoin market, the ability to make a proper Dollar cost of Bitcoin in whatever price trend will away put the investors in a profitable position.
I cannot disagree with any of that, and to even agree that BTC's price volatility is one of the matters that is closest to inevitable, even though we cannot be completely sure about what direction that the volatility and/or price is going to go, and the ONLY way that we end up profiting from DCA is if the overall trend of BTC is ultimately in an upwards direction. If BTC price direction ends up spiraling down forever, then DCA ends up NOT paying off.. so there is a bit of a presumption that at some point(s) down the road, BTC prices are going to be higher than current prices and higher than prices in which we are currently buying BTC.. otherwise, DCA would not necessarily work.. which is the case with shitcoins.. we cannot presume that the prices of shitcoins will go up, but it seems fair and reasonable to have some presumptions that we are regularly investing into bitcoin because we believe that ultimately BTC's price is going to trend upward. even if it might take a while to play out and even if the price might not end up going up as high as we might wished it to go...so long as it generally trends up we end up being profitable (and surely, when time comes to potentially cash out some or all of our BTC, then it would be preferred that the BTC price has gone up higher than it's price and also accounting for the devaluation of the dollar that likely will come too)... so we want BTC price appreciation to be profitable in "real terms", and not just nominal terms, while realizing that we are making an asymmetric bet in which our odds seem to be pretty damned good, even while there is no guarantee that our investment will actually end up being profitable in "real terms."
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Slightly different now many have done DCA with their nominal variations included in their dollar cost averaging $10-$100 is a good benchmark depending on how they can afford to do with the cash flow they have along the way, if you start now, for example, doing DCA of as little as $ 10 for 9 years, the BTC you will get will be small but the value will be higher with a price that will increase each cycle.
In dollar terms, we should be better off in 9 years, even if we invest relatively small amounts, and for sure one of the advantages of investing into bitcoin is that we can choose the amount that we believe that we can afford in terms of how aggressive that we want to be, even if we are ONLY able to invest $10 each time that we buy whether we can do that every week or not... but even if we can ONLY invest small amounts, bitcoin does allow us to be able to do that, even though we might need to search and research either a service or a person who is willing to trade with us, even if each of the amounts is low... such as ONLY $10 at a time.
I don't care when the bull Market Will return, all I care about is buying some bitcoin right now before it is too late and hold for a long period of time probably till the year 2025 who knows? So I agree that buying the dip is the best strategy right now.
It's probably better to be trying to invest into bitcoin longer.. since 2025 is only 2 years from now.. and bitcoin is likely a 4-10 year or longer investment, if you figure out ways to invest in it with those kinds of longer timelines...which will also likely result in compounding affects upon your investment, too.
So for example, there could be a person who makes $2,500 or more per month, but then s/he might have various fixed expenses that cover more than $1,600 per month, and so then at that point, there would be $900 per month that could potentially be invested - however, there may also be some needs to maintain some of that "extra" in reserves for possible emergencies and/or fluctuation of expenses - and surely there might be some entertainment, consumption or other possible demands that might cause the person to have some flexibility in his/her budget and desire to live/socialize and to consider those matters important - so then there would then be potential questions regarding how much of the discretionary $900 that such person might want to dedicate to investing in bitcoin (and deferred gratification) rather than some other ways that s/he might want to consider spending that money in terms of more expedited gratification.. and those are somewhat discretionary matters that may or may not lead to later regrets, in part dependent upon how much spare amount that might be contained in the discretionary amount of income and surely in some cases the amount is enough in order that "both" can be achieved... but still there could still be discretionary questions in regards to "how aggressive" such a person might feel that s/he is being in terms of deciding how to spend his/her discretionary income (once the amount is determined).
The value you mentioned even though it's just a mere comparison, of course it's a pretty fantastic value. normal in my country the ones who earn that much income are those working in government parliament who can make $2500 per month) well covering all of that the most aggressive thing we can do is make purchases in small amounts from each round and it will multiply in the next round. I mean $20/25/30 and so on.
from that I think we have the same goal of collecting btc in the long term and it won't trigger a strong reaction to do aggressively because we have to be able to balance the income we get. we can follow the DCA strategy but we can't follow the instructions to do aggressively it's a bit hard for us.
Well, maybe my examples are too big for some people, as you suggested ginsan, but you still should be able to figure out numbers that work for your scenario in order to figure out how aggressive would be sufficiently aggressive or what levels might be overly aggressive for you and for your situation (including considering whether you have potential for greater earning power or even potential to cut back on certain costs - but for some folks it might be difficult to imagine higher numbers without some kinds of BIG changes in their own circumstances, so they have to work with what they have in front of them).
And, i understand that some people are in situations in which the wages are not very high, and it may be a bit difficult to work towards increasing wages, so the more practical angle is to consider how aggressive that the person is able to be within the wages that s/he already earns, which may well be way lower than the numbers that I had presented... .and even within whatever numbers that you are working, there are going to be varying levels in which you are able to be aggressive and varying levels in which you are making choices about what kinds of things you want to buy (or invest into) with whatever income that you might have left after you have paid for your necessities.... so there is an expression that people who do not have "discretionary" income are not able to invest.. which makes sense because no one should be investing into bitcoin with money that they have to pay for food or rent or some other basic living expense(s), so if those people with little to no discretionary income do want to invest (into bitcoin or into anything else), then they have to figure out ways to build their situations in such a way that they do end up having "discretionary" income..otherwise they are stuck.. without any investments at all..
