Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 562. (Read 123414 times)

Experience certainly plays a very important role in determining whether we should take action. which is clear by analyzing and seeing the developments that have occurred. then action can be taken, you are right, even though it has to be at risk, but we clearly know and analyze it well, and believe that the time we have cannot be missed and in the end we don't get anything. because sometimes opportunities pass very quickly and if we are not ready, then the opportunity will be lost. the decision to buy or sell is that we already believe in what we do.

Personally, I have some difficulties conceptualizing that attempting to throttle up and throttle down your strategies based on where you believe the BTC price is going to go is going to yield you better results than a strategy that attempts to mostly minimize those attempts at timing (aka outsmarting the market).

On the other hand, there are likely ways that you are going to be able to tweak on the edges as long as you largely have a system that you attempt to follow, and even though I am going to go along with you and attempt to analyze timing effects within each of the categories, when any guy is looking at what he is doing, he needs to look at the whole thing as a package, so he is likely going to be able to tweak within each of the categories in such a way that attempts to somewhat account for some of his anticipations of BTC price direction - while at the same time built in doubts (which many of us should always have) should result in his tempering the taking of BIG risks in one direction or another (in other words, if he has created smart systems that are already largely attempting to tailor to his own circumstances including account for various anxieties, then his temptations to gamble should also be largely tempered.. perhaps not completely tempered because many of us have some levels of wanting to gamble.. at least a little bit based on information that we believe that we know).

Let's attempt to take a look at how timing (or feelings) can play a part in each of the categories.  Let's continue to use the example of $250 per week with an additional surprise $6k coming available once per year (since you seem to like this amount so much - in spite of your battling with it.. . hahahahaha).

Lump sum investing - this category is already kind of already inclined to take out some timing aspects because it is suggesting that as soon as you get the money, you invest it.  Sure you can take the $6k per year or whatever extra money that you might get from time to time and divide it into parts so that you can use in other categories, but you can also just put it in straight away.  The reason that I tend to just divide that shit up into three as a starting point is that I just want to have some advantage of each of the categories, rather than putting all my eggs in one basket.  Of course, if you do not have shit into bitcoin, and maybe you have set your BTC accumulation target at somewhere between 1% and 10% but you have not even come close to reaching your accumulation target yet, then you might be more aggressive on the lump sum aspect.

By the way, in about 2016 or so, I grew away from the idea that there is a need to be continuing to reallocate your gains, so for example, if you set some initial allocation amount of somewhere between 1% and 10% (let's just say 5% to be in the middle of that), but the BTC price goes shooting up 2x, 5x or 6.5x for example, then let's just say that when the BTC price was at $10k, you had largely reached your 5% accumulation goal, but as the BTC price went up and your other assets did not change too much in value, your BTC began to take up way larger percentages of your overall portfolio and at $20k, it was around 10% and around $50k it was around 25% and around 32.5%... And, so when the BTC price comes crashing back down to $30k-ish, your allocation in BTC becomes 15% - which is still way over your initial authorization of 5% into BTC.  

I used to go along with some of those traditional investment ideas in terms of considering various times to reallocate, but since about 2016 when that first started to become a potential issue for me, I personally decided to say "fuck reallocating," and instead let the winner ride, and I believe that there are a few aspects to the formula that likely needs to be present in order to decide not to reallocate, and one is already having other investments that are decently solid so that you do not necessarily need to take profits from BTC to put in those other assets.  Another thing is both having confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the asset and even not being deluded into believing some piece of crap investment (such as a shitcoin) has strong fundamentals when it does not.. Bitcoin does seem  to fit the category of being a strong fundamental investment, yet of course, opinions are not necessarily going to agree about that, so in essence what I am saying that in order to stick with your reluctancies to reallocate, you have to both have developed ideas of the fundamentals being strong and in order for that approach to be long term profitable, you ultimately need to end up being correct, which the future may end up proving you right or wrong in terms of what you thought would happen and what ends up happening.

DCA  - of course, DCA completely attempts to just take an amount of money that is comfortable and just to blindly put the money into BTC no matter what the price - whether that be $250 per week or $20per week, $1,000 per week or some other amount or increment.  There should be little to no timing attempts with this, and surely, if you don't want to dedicate the whole $250 that you get towards bitcoin purchases for that week, you can assign some of it for buying on dips.. nothing wrong with that, even though personally I believe that while you are attempting to reach or even maintain your allocation target, you should be dedicating a certain amount to ongoing, continuing, persistent and regular DCA-ing, even if it is a relatively small amount. Once you reach or even exceed your allocation target, you can become much more lax about whether you continue to DCA at all or maybe considerably reducing the amounts or intervals of DCA in order to account for your having had reached or exceeded your target (which also could be considered as being reached or exceeded based on BTC price accumulation).  

Maybe in 2016 when the BTC price was around $600 each, you considered your overall income budget and considered that maybe over the years you might be able to get about 21 BTC, which would be around $12,600 invested, and if the BTC price went up to a few thousand dollars (for example $5k), you would end up having around $105k in value that you could continue to build.  

However, through the years, you saw the BTC prices going up and down and you lost your focus and you fucked up a whole lot because you were trying to time ups and down, and you never reached your 21BTC target.  Even after the BTC price went up to $20k and then came back down to $10k, spent a lot of time in the $7ks and even $3ks, you never did reach your 21BTC target,  but somewhere along the line, you did get up to 15BTC, and you started to consider that 15BTC might be enough.  Even in September 2020, BTC prices were around $10k, and you had largely reached and exceeded your short term $100k plus target because your BTC were worth $150k.  Furthermore, thereafter you saw your 15BTC go up to almost $1million (at $64,895) and you also saw the 15BTC go back down to below $500k (at $30k)you had.  

So, I am not going to concede, Wind_FURY, that you had not been fucking around the whole god-damned time trying to time the market by failing and refusing to buy, so sure you did not reach your 21 BTC goal, and maybe even you have not been able to reach or maintain a 15 BTC goal, but in the end, maybe you are coming to realize that maybe 15 BTC might be enough because you might not need as many BTC as you had originally thought, but you keep fucking around by trying to time the market, failing and refusing to continue to buy on a regular basis... So even though I do not know (or care) about your exact numbers, AmiNOTrite about the negative repercussions you have continued to feel with your lame-ass attempts to try to time the market when you should have some category (and amount of money) in which you should just be regularly buying BTC in order to reach some kind of somewhat tangible goal?  

Buying on dips - maybe this is your favorite of the categories, and I have no problem with this category getting a certain amount of emphasis.. but there surely can be a trade-off if too much emphasis is placed into this category which causes peeps to be inadequately prepared for UP.  Each of us should be figuring out what balance that we need to make in order to be prepared for both price directions, and so damned frequently in the bitcoin space I see folks who way the fuck inadequately prepare for up.... so as I already mentioned, you could have made a bit over a $10k investment in BTC in 2016.. and then just sat on such investment and would have largely been adequately prepared for UP. .. so then just don't be playing around with that part of the investment and then maybe continued to follow various other strategies.

Of course, if you were not around BTC in 2016 or if you failed/refused to adequately prepare for UP, then you gotta start from where you are at, which means that if you are a nocoiner relative of Wind_FURY.. don't be listening to his ongoing dumbass suggestion to wait or to ONLY employ buying on dips, you gotta be doing those other parts too.

Furthermore, it does not matter if you could have performed better blah blah blah if you end up NOT getting the timing correct because you are trying to get more BTC for lower prices and the BTC prices do not end up going lower.

Anyhow buying on dips remains ONLY one of the components, and I personally do believe that it should be incorporated right from the start of investing into BTC because it helps psychology and finances when the price goes low or even lower than expected, so having some money prepared for both low and even perhaps lower than expected could feel good, even though the overall value of the holdings may have gone down 10x or more than any amount of money that you had prepared for buying on the dip.   Accordingly, let's take the person who had accumulated 15BTC, and when the BTC price drops from $64,895 to $30k, then that person had gone from having a dollar BTC value of $975k down to $450k, and so maybe he bought at various times in the dip, including buying at $5k at $52k, and then buying another $3k at $42k, so then when the BTC price reaches $30k, he may have ONLY about $3k - $5k left in his funds, and in some sense he has already run out of money so he is feeling like he cannot buy anymore at the $30k prices because if the BTC price were to go to $25k or even less to $20k, then he would not have any money for those dips, and he is feeling in a bit of a dilemma.  

Of course, I can feel the dilemma, and instead of trying to time exactly how far the dip is going to go, my buying on dip strategy had already bought all the way down from $57k to $30k, and I still have buy orders going down to around $15k.  So personally, I am suggesting not to be timing this or trying to figure out shit.. If you feel that you bought too much too high, then hopefully you learn from your mistakes, and I am suggesting to continue to set your buy orders at various increments in order that you continue to buy on the way down, you do not stop buying and you do not run out of money.  So even if you ONLY have $3k left, and you are ONLY able to buy small amounts, I would be suggesting to figure out your buy intervals and set your buy orders all the way down to where you believe that the BTC price could go and maybe even going beyond where you believe that it could go.  You gotta find a balance in this that is comfortable for you in terms of your believing that you did your best under the circumstances including your likely considerations that you feel that you already fucked up by buying too much too high.  

By the way, I am not even conceding that the bottom of $30,066 is not already in, but I am just playing along with the idea that there are a lot of peeps (probably including Wind_FURY) who are feeling a decent amount of anxiety because they already fucked up by running out of money, buying too much too high, and now are thinking about the what ifs that might be quite a bit of of wack of what is more likely to happen in terms of this particular current shake out that we are in the midst of.

So for example, if you ONLY have $3k left and your cashflow projections anticipates that you will likely be getting another $250 per week for the next few months, and if you also believe that there are decent chances that BTC prices could go down to $25k and in extreme cases could go down to $20k, and you are thinking that the odds are really extreme.. such as less than 2% that the BTC price could go below $20k, the you might set your buy on dip orders down to $20k with the $3k that you have and then just plug in the extra $250 per week into that buying on dip plan at various points as that money comes in.  

So even with the $3k, you might consider that buying $300 for every $1,000 price drop would be prudent, and at the same time you are depressed because your 15 BTC collection goes down in value about $15k every time that the BTC price drops $1k, but you are ONLY buying $300 with each of those drops, so you start to believe that you might be doing something wrong.. blah blah blah.. and I just say stop getting all caught up in bullshit about the loss of value of your BTC and just carry out your buying on dip plans as well as supplementing with the other two BTC accumulation strategies, and in the long run of 4 years or more, you are likely going to be doing quite well with any new BTC purchases that you are making.. whether buying on dips, DCA'ing or lump summing, and surely considering and attempting to tailor those three strategies should be very helpful in terms of reducing a lot of anxiety during BTC price dippening periods whether the BTC price is going to be continuing to dip for some uncertain amount of time into the future or whether the bottom is already in.. I surely am not going to presume to know, even though I do suggest that anyone who buys BTC at any price should be buying with an anticipation of holding such new purchases for at least 4 years from the time of the new purchase.


No.  I started more than 7.5 years ago, you fuck.  Why do you keep perverting the various facts or what I have been attempting to communicate with my various examples or hypotheticals or speculations or whatever?

I used the 5 years in order to go by your forum registration date in terms of your getting involved in bitcoin, so I am not competing with you, you fuck.  Nonetheless, I did proclaim that my system of largely following DCA and other related strategies has largely ended up paralleling the performance of the DCA system of 42x.

So, I am not even proclaiming that DCA either needs to outperform various kinds of other hybrid systems because there surely can be other goals that are attempting to be achieved by employing a variety of systems.  Many times I have suggested that I hardly give any shits about my actual BTC price performance because my preference was to be able to achieve something that was very similar to my traditional asset returns which was averaging around 5.5% per year, so it would be nice to match that level of performance but not necessary because when I started investing in BTC I was accounting for BTC being a potentially risky as fuck asset, and along the way I have continued to have those kinds of considerations about the risky as fuck nature of BTC, so some of the strategies that I personally created were to attempt to protect my own investment from some of the downside risk and some of the seemingly built in and inevitable volatility.

With all of those considerations, my BTC performance has still largely matched the DCA'ing average that is about 42x, and I was attempting to get you to discuss your supposed attempts at doing better than DCA and to compare whatever the fuck you are doing to what you would have gotten with a mere blindly following DCA strategy.. that is not trying to time shit.

Of course, the DCA strategy charts can be clicked on to show that the longer that you have been employing the DCA strategy the greater your returns and even likely if you average them out on a per basis, the longer that you have been in, then the better per year performance that you are likely to get.  Of course, when you are looking at a shorter period of time, then sometimes you are going to NOT have either very good performance or there may be some getting caught in various kinds of correction periods that cause the shorter term periods to not show too well on the DCA chart... so now you want to say that you just started 3 years ago, and your first two years do not count?  Fuck that bullshit.  Maybe your are just too much of a newbie because I was trying to use a longer (and especially longer than 4 year period) to show that DCA really is a solid practice?  

Surely 3 years is more problematic because of BTC's four year cycle that is not even guaranteed.. so you fuck, you want to suggest that you have only been investing your timing the market strategy for 3 years.. what a fucking twat.  Part of the considerable power of DCA is to both let the damned thing run for a long time and to continue to do it, and there comes a kind of compounding effect that comes from the time in the market rather than timing the market, so the shorter the period that you pick (you fuck) the smaller the ability to show any kind of performance difference from any random strategy

O.k.. whatever, I will play ball.. a wee bit.  We already saw that 5 years had shown 13.5x..  Of course, we are in a good cycle now, so 3 years and 4 years are still going to show decent results. but I still am suggesting that the longer that you merely do the DCA then it is likely going to perform well, and if you are making some kinds of claims to having superior performance, as if the ONLY thing that matters is maniacal focusing on upside performance (which that also is not correct, because many times long term investors want both upside potential, but they also want some kinds of feelings of wellbeing in regards to downside risk, too).

By the way.. just for shits and giggles in terms of your shifting goal posts methods of attempting to interact here.

4 years DCA'ing shows 438% returns  (so easier to beat that, right?)

3 years of DCA'ing shows 341% returns   (so easier to beat that, right?)

So have you beat the 3 years performance with your attempts at short-term selectivisms? Even with your wanting to ONLY selectively start the employment of your supposedly enlightened approach at 3 years, rather than you forum registration date, then surely you have been able to get better relative performance with that no?


Oh gawd...  

Maybe it's o.k. to play along with you here.  So O.k.  You are really suggesting that you started investing in BTC 3 years ago rather than 5 years ago?  You do not want your first 3 years to count, right?

Think about my situation?  I started at the end of 2013, which was the top of that price run.  My starting purchase was at $1,200, and the price did not get back above $1,200 for more than 3 years in early 2017 and the price did not even stay above $1,200 until March/April.  I don't selectively choose my BTC price performance based on that. I made a lot of mistakes along the way, including getting a lot of BTC taken from me through a sims port hack, and I even include the price of those BTC in my overall calculation of BTC price, so my average cost per BTC went from below $500-ish to around $750-ish from that hackening situation.  But I do not try to spin that as NOT counting, and still over the 7.5 years that I am in my overall BTC price performance is still inline with the DCA'ing projections. and I believe that I am engaging in strategies to insure my BTC portfolio from downside price performance risks and BTC price volatility, which should take away from my BTC upside price performance, but my BTC portfolio is still largely matching the DCA price expectations that are in the chart in terms of the 42x .mine is like 48x... but whatever, I have been in longer than 7 years and more like 7.5 years... even though my first 1/2 year or so was building the initial stash that largely did not come close my accumulation target until getting close to being a year into BTC, but I had not really realized and/or embraced my BTC accumulation target until I was around 9 months into BTC... so then I started considering 10% was my BTC accumulation target in respect to BTC as compared to my other investments.





Well reduce your amounts then.  Going back to the $250 per week BTC budget, if you have personality inclinations that you want to fuck around with 1/2 or 3/4 of that amount, then don't put all of it into DCA. I am not even saying to follow any approach that you do not agree with, but I am saying that it is really difficult for anyone to beat DCA overall, and like you suggested, it is not just about finances, but it is about psychology too (even though with the more and more passage of time the finances does seem to work itself out with DCA, too.. especially if the asset ends up going UPpity in the long run, and generally BTC does tend to do that, at least so far).


Nothing wrong with that.


By the way, after responding to each of your above points, I acknowledge that there are some parts of my response in which I am getting a bit frustrated with some of what you are saying, and part of my frustration probably has to do with when I get some senses that the goalposts or the hypothetical is changed or there seems to be selective employments of facts that seem to avoid some of the earlier points that were being made.  

Of course, if you want to proclaim that you have ONLY been investing in BTC for 3 years (or employing your strategy/method for 3 years rather than 5 years), then I suppose that could be fair, too.. especially if it is actually what you did in terms of not really getting started in investing in BTC. but still seems a bit problematic, because of course, with any investment there are going to be more and more benefits that come with more and more time in the market..

Accordingly, I can concede that newbie investors can take a year or two just to build their investment portfolio (with BTC or any other investment) to some kind of somewhat meaningful amount that it makes sense to even think about it or moving it or whatever.. so sometimes the first few years might be injecting so small amounts that it really does not seem to add up to much if anything.

I look back at my own earlier days in investing, and I see that my investment amounts were relatively piddly.. so it can take a lot of time to both build the investment amounts and also for the various investments returns to start to show and to compound upon themselves... to also show greater and greater amounts that really show 15 to 20 years down the road rather than in earlier days of building the investment portfolio.. and even from my own experiences the compounding really seems to show more and more further down the road.. - kind of the expression of it takes money to make money.. but surely a doubling of $100k is going to seem way greater than a doubling of $1k.. even though it is the same percentage.

Many are already seeing the best of the dip to buy, they know that it has great potential, that at any moment the price recovers and for many it produces profits, of course I extracted this from an interesting article:

TA: Bitcoin Grinds Higher, Here’s Why Dips Turned Attractive


Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-btc-grinds-higher-38k/


This article made me remember this thread a lot, besides that the only thing missing is for them to say to buy in the fall and Hodl, however they give possible scenarios that may occur, if the scenario that occurs is bullish we will be able to see again the imminent recovery of BTC and maybe if everything goes well we will have another new ATH.

Has there been any analysis on which day of the month (or day of the week) tends to be best to buy when implementing a DCA strategy (e.g. perhaps prices tend to drop at end of month)?

I will agree with you that 1) showing historical results in terms of following a set system (whether DCA or otherwise) is not necessarily going to reflect either what people actually ended up doing or 2) that they would necessarily be actually cashing out at this particular time (so it is "on paper" because they did not cash out) and 3) that future results might not be in the same proportions or even perhaps in the same direction.  Let's take each of these arguable points.. 1 by 1.

1)  I will agree with the idea that many people might either proclaim that they are following a system or aspire to follow a system, but the reality of the world is that they either do not follow it or they do not really understand how to put the theory into practice in a way that would be meaningful in their carrying it out.  I provided you with an idea of $1k per month, and sure that might sound doable, but frequently cashflows get mixed up and it may well be more realistic to aim for lower basic amounts and then just add to it or even subtract from it, so there might be some flexibility in the amount or even the timelines of when it is invested, but if we look back at the history after 5 years had passed, we could see some patterns and even take some averages that might end up averaging at $1k per month or some other amount, but the more consistent that the amounts, then the more that they would end up matching with the DCA link that I had provided... and of course, you can tweak the amounts in the DCA link, too.. It would be nice if such DCA link allowed more flexibility in setting dates... but it still should be able to give an overall ballpark idea and surely when you are measuring averages and ballparks from a website like the DCA one, that would not be even as close to being able to plug your own actual facts into a spreadsheet and to figure out exactly your own performance at various points in time (sure some spreadsheet skills can be helpful for showing actual performance at various points in time).

2)   I am not sure how much it would be necessary to elaborate specifically on this point, but with any longer term investment, it is going to tend to be "on paper" for a whole hell of a lot of time until you cash out, and sometimes estimating what should have or could have happened does not really match too well with what actually happened, and each person has differing skills, abilities, time and resources to be able to dedicate towards both analyzing what is happening or what happened and to confirm if anything can be learned from such analysis in order to change (hopefully improve) plans and practices.

3)  Many of us are familiar with the expression that past results do not guarantee future results.. but we still should be able to recognize that bitcoin remains a damned good investment, the fundamentals have not gotten worse, and adoption remains quite low.  Also, even if there might had been some institutional front running, this latest correction does seem to have provided some opportunities for regular joe blows to get their shit together and start investing in BTC because perhaps even some of the institutions have been scared off a bit.. (whether that institutional scaring off is going to last very long, might be another story).... In any event, I continue to argue that DCA is a great component of any longer term investment strategy as long as the fundamentals remain strong.. and that history can give some ideas, but not necessarily say what is going to happen exactly.. which is always the case.. even if you go back historically, you did not know how DCA-ing was all going to play out, but you followed such practice because it has been proven to be a decently good practice, and in some (perhaps many) cases it can end up paying off quite handsomely.


Another point, Wind_FURY is that you completely avoided answering my question in regards to the performance of your BTC investing strategy since your registration in the forum 5 years ago.  I am suspecting that your BTC returns are not even fucking close to 13.5x - which is in the ballpark of what you would have gotten from a fairly consistent, persistent and regular DCAing into BTC, and this method has been known and available and quite common for more than 30 years.. and surely it has been known to be a very popular method of investing into fundamentally sound investments (bitcoin or others.. not talking about shitcoins, here) because DCA is a solid approach.  

As I already mentioned, I started using the DCA method more or less when I started investing more than 30 years ago.. fuck close to 40 years ago... sorry to say.  I remember buying stupid-ass things like Government bonds on a regular basis.. and sure they stacked up for sure.... but it was a kind of DCA method, and the DCA method had been solid as fuck and continued to be a great method in bitcoin since I started in bitcoin in 2013, and the results show with the 42x in 7 years example that I gave you, and that is NOT just "on paper" because I could have and can cash that shit out any time that I want.  

Sure in September 2020, my cashing out of BTC at that point, would have only resulted in around 14.5x returns, but then if I had been able to cash out towards the top of the BTC price market at around $64,895 (which surely is not an easy thing to accomplish.. so just stay somewhat hypothetical with that thought), my returns would have been around 92x.. and that is not just on paper when that money is relatively liquid and there is a goddamned choice in terms of continuing to let it ride or to cash out some part or even to cash out all of it.  

So fuck off with implications of "paper profits" when it comes to making claims about something as increasingly liquid as bitcoin... there are no reasons to be stressing ideas of being trapped in a BTC investment at least in terms of even long term strategies (even though getting trapped - even in BTC - is possible for any investment if in a bad geographical area with fewer liquidation options or trying to time plays with a large amount of assets that might become harder to move all at once).


Yeah, you can "imagine" short term bullshit all that you want, and you seem to be scaring yourself out of either making or following a long term and consistent plan that largely will mellow out the short term scariness.

Remember the statement that it is not timing the market but time in the market.. which surely is not so much of an DCA strategy but a lump sum investment strategy that just suggests that you should be thinking long term.  

I have already said several times that it is my belief and practice that even any additional investment into BTC, such as continuing to DCA should be considered in terms of HODLing any new investment for at least 4 years (at least that should be the mindset when buying).  Of course, each of us should have quite a bit of discretion over our own investments, so there could well be circumstances, including high BTC uppity performance that might cause us to take some or all of our investment out of BTC or even majorly adjust and tweak our BTC strategies.. We have those kinds of discretions, even with investments that we initially considered to be long term investments, but we change our minds along the way.. at any time that we want.. even if we had initially considered the investment as a long term investment.. So, surely there are ways to have very firm stances and very firm strategies, but still NOT be locked in and to retain discretion to do whatever the fuck you want, even if you may well recognize the advantages of just staying with a locked in strategy (that is not really completely locked in. because of free will ....  that hopefully does not devolve into weak hands.. merely because you can do it does not mean that it is a good idea to do it. but whatever peeps going to vary on these matters too.   ).


I agree with your overall points about $35k seeming to be relatively cheap, and $500k having vary decent chances of happening as you say "sooner or later."

Of course, $500k could happen as soon as this cycle - late 2021 or into 2022 - or it could take another cycle (seems like decent chances to reach by then if not already reached in this cycle)... but even with all of that, $500k is not guaranteed.. even though seems to be a very good target in terms of being around the gold market cap.. and bitcoin is likely equal to gold, 10x better than gold, 100x better than gold or more than 1000x better than gold (as Saylor has asserted.. maybe not even hyperbolically from his purported thinking).

Whatever we can agree with assigning really high probabilities to a variety of upwards numbers without exactly being able to know how much time it might take to get to the numbers, but seems dangerous to me to be presuming the high numbers are guaranteed - even if they currently seem to have very high probabilities of coming to fruition with the passage of time... how much time?  could be quick?  but might not, too.  My framing might come off as whimpy.. but that is part of the thing about the future.. we do not really know, even though we have various hypotheses and some of us will end up being more correct than others and some of us may have prepared ourselves better than others in terms of a variety of possibilities including the future that ends up playing out.


I agree with your point about if you have bought at a high price, such as $60k, then if your time horizon is at least 4 years, those bought coins are likely to become profitable by that time, if not sooner... so far bitcoin has never been lower after 4 years than it had been 4 years earlier.. so, even if that fact is NOT guaranteed to continue to be true, it has been true, so far.

Second, I personally believe that it is good to continue to buy BTC, so if you believe that it  was good enough to buy at $60k, then you should believe that it continues to be a good value at lower prices.  Of course, there are people who blow all their load at too high of prices, or maybe they overallocate or some other accounting baloney that traps them into not being able to continue to buy BTC on an ongoing basis once they had already bought.  I have some difficulties relating to those kinds of people, even though I know that they exist in the real world.

Third, even though it is possible that we are entering into a bear market and won't see a BTC pricer recovery for 1, 2, 3 or more years, I think that the odds are not very great for such a bear cycle to have had already started.. even though, yes, anything is possible... so it is not completely out of the realm of possibilities that the dipshit manipulating beartards, status quo financial and government institutions, bitcoin naysayers, no coiners and shit coin pumpeners could end up being correct.. and bitcoin prices are going down (or at least not up) from here.  But I really doubt that they are correct in their wishes, and we are likely in a relatively short-term price correction that might well end up playing out as a beartrap (once we look at where we are at retrospectively a month or a few months down the road).  

Never say never in bitcoinlandia, but currently preparing for more DOWNity from here could end up being a quite bad and quite costly move.. especially if NOT preparing for the possibility for UPpity at the same time.

even when you buy bitcoin at the price of $ 60k you have nothing to lose if you then hold it until 2025. no need to panic, this is the bitcoin price cycle. Say goodbye to the bull market and see you in 2025.

If you are a long term HODLER, this time is a very good time to buy BTC at cheap price. At $35k per BTC, it is still very low. BTC will reach $500K per BTC sooner or later. 

On paper it’s easy, but capital is limited, we should use it efficiently, plus stress should be avoided. Imagine buying Bitcoin priced at $60,000 during the euphoria, when you could have waited and buy the dip during the fear. But that’s a good link, I’ll show it to some people later.

I am not debating.  I said what I said, and I have not changed.  Get the fuck started sooner rather than later, get your shit together and start buying.  Yes, DCA is the best starting strategy.


What has been your possible average or meaningful budget for buying BTC for the past 5 years (when you registered on the forum), Wind_FURY?

Let's just say... $1,000 per month

Have you beaten the DCA performance for the past 5 years?

Total invested would have been $65,250 and you would have gotten about 13.5x return.  Pretty damned good no?  You are more greedy than that?  Gold would have gotten you 34.24% over that same time and equities would have gotten you 42.09% over that same period.  

If you could have gotten a better return than 13.5x on bitcoin or any other investment strategy, let me know.. There is no reason to poo poo bitcoin's historical performance because even if you ONLY end up getting a faction of that 13.5x in the next 5-10 years, bitcoin is still likely going to be a good investment and DCA investing is a solid approach to investing in it in the coming 5 to 10 years.



Nope.  There never is no wrong time to buy BTC, so long as you have at least a 4 year investment timeline, and having more than 10 years would even be better.

Get your fucking shit together and figure out what your approach would be.  I suggest the consideration of three methods to get into accumulating BTC.. and like I have already said several times that is lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips.

Of course, there are some other considerations as well including getting your shit together, establishing your budget, etc, and the three buying considerations would be matters to start to look at and consider.  


Yes, we already covered that several times.  I said that I thought that you gave bad advice, and I also backed up why I said that so do you believe that we need to keep going over the same thing?

You want to say that I was wrong because the BTC price came down 50% blah blah blah..

Well fuck that nonsense.  I already said a zillion times that mostly I am not fucking around with timing and hesitating and blah blah blah.. but sure, anyone can do whatever they like including hopefully plugging their individual circumstances into those three approaches to accumulating BTC in such a way that is personally comfortable to them.

 

Of course sounds good in theory... and if you are just saying it but turning it on and off, you are probably being a wee bit wimpy in your approach.. so again, the devil is in the actual application, and surely I wonder if you have been able to achieve more than 13.5x in the past 5 years.. which would have been your results with straight forward and regularly consistently applied DCA approach.  Change the quantity to $100 per month ($25per week) if needed, but the percentages will be the same.. which is a 13.5x return.. not bad, not bad.  And solid as fuck in spite of your complaining about some wee bit of buying some BTC at higher prices during parts of the time.

And look at mine which is 7.5 years.. so I can ONLY plug in 7 years.  Mine shows 42x returns. which is pretty much in the ballpark of where my portfolio is at in terms of percentages (not talking about the quantity that is shown in that linked chart... You can play around with the quantity, the frequency and the period of time in which you would have been buying in).  I doubt anyone should be complaining about 42x returns in the past 7 years or thinking that they could have done better blah blah blah.

It was very clear for me. Wasn’t it very clear for you? When you debated last month that everyone should be buying “at any price” and apply a DCA strategy? That was the wrong time to buy. Everyone was euphoric including me, but I was hesitant to tell close friends and family to buy because it wasn’t the time. NOW is the time to buy + apply a DCA strategy, when everyone is in FEAR.

Buy the dip, and HODL.

Exactly one of the reason that any person or institution should not be buying and betting on ONLY one price direction.

If they believed in bitcoin at $60k, then they should believe in it at $34k, too.

So, largely Slow death, you are suggesting why there are likely problems to advocate and employ ONLY a lump sum investment strategy. 

Personally, I doubt that we should be giving too many shits about people who invest in ONLY one direction because markets are going to frequently chew the fuck out of those kinds of investors if that happens to be their one trick pony - and bitcoin has shown itself to be especially ruthless in terms of punishing folks who might come to bitcoin with a bit of naivette and expect to get immediate returns if they are buying in on a price uptrend...especially around 5x to 6.5x territories (if counting from the bounce off from September 2020 starting around $10k).



We are talking about bitcoin here... who gives any shits about crypto?


Again, crypto?  who cares?

You want to rephrase the point that you were wanting to make and talk about bitcoin?  Elon was tweeting about bitcoin too..   but anyhow if you are trying to suggest that shitcoins are leading the bitcoin price, you not only seem to be off topic, but also a bit of lacking in recognizing and appreciating who the king daddy is... or at least framing the whole topic in either an amorphous way are considering that the various scams, shitcoins, projects, pump and dumps need to have a central focus in terms of analyzing what is going on.. sure they could be mentioned, but seems a bit of a never ending mess to get into that crap in this here thread... and make the focus even less (good) than it already is.



oh gawd....    you cannot stop with your muddied-ass crypto discussion.. go somewhere else with that nonsense...

Do you have anything that you would like to say about bitcoin, apart from your first paragraph?   Go on.. you can do it.. focus.. focus...

I have my money to buy bitcoin and I confess that I spend hours looking at the chart to see what would be the ideal price to buy and the price drops a lot and this is a time of great caution on my part and I wonder those people who bought it when the price was $60,000, now they are suffering big losses and it is not known when the price will return to $60,000... this is the big risk of this cryptocurrency market, a lot of people got on the elon musk wave and started buying cryptos nonstop, i remember those days watching twitter from an altcoin creator saying he took 100 million dollars and compared bitcoin for the price of $36000, i hope people buy cryptos based on your own judgment

Of course I did.  What do you believe that I have been responding to.. besides spouting out my own ideas.


Sounds as if you have not been reading my posts.

To succinctly attempt to summarize my stance, I am saying that any person acquiring bitcoin is going to take a different approach depending on his situation in terms of his he overall in an accumulation phase, maintenance phase or a liquidation phase.
 
Accordingly, if a person is in an accumulation phase, then accumulation should be divided into three categories, which is lump sum investing, DCA and buy on dip.  Of course, HODL is in there too for peeps who run out of money.  So even if we might start with a default category of dividing up the three categories into three and perhaps equally allocating, individuals who put thought into what they are doing may well lean more towards one or another and even have varying strategies within each category.

So for example, if you have no cash then its not like you can keep buying, but if you have no cash you may have already fucked up because you did not adequately prepare your three categories and/or within the categories... so in that regard, you may be left in a position that you have no choice except to HODL...

On the other hand, if you have been in bitcoin for a sufficiently long period of time, you have already been around the block a few times, so you should already be prepared for potential extreme BTC price action in either direction.. we have seen that a million times (maybe I am exaggerating a wee bit?).

Ok.. yes, I appreciate that the BTC price pretty much went straight up from September 2020 until mid April 2021, and so I understand that there were all kinds of peeps talking about the supercycle and blah blah blah.. but any long timer bitcoiner who got caught up in that hype ONLY has himself to blame for believing that bullshit.  Sure we all make mistakes, but it still remains our responsibility to prepare for a variety of extremes, and part of what I am suggesting is that the longer that we are in bitcoin, we should have been able to have set up these various systems and if we have not been successful in that regard, hopefully we can figure out some ways to learn from our mistakes including taking into account a kind of system that I am proposing in terms of both dividing your new money into three categories and also attempting to very much individualize to your own circumstances, and you are likely going to continue to get fucked if you are too unrealistic in your BTC price expectations and you end up betting too much on one direction rather than the other and then you are not prepared when the price goes against your bet.



Fuck that nonsense.  You are failing and refusing to take responsibility for some aspects of either your lack of preparedness or your attempting to retroactively figure out what to do.. Ultimately, you do need to tailor some kind of situation that works for yourself and none of us can really know about extremes in BTC price movements before they happen and we are only fucking ourselves if we try to place too much predictive power in one direction or another and NOT adequately prepare ourselves for both directions in terms of both extent of price changes and also in terms of the amount of time that it may take to play out in one direction or another.

I will admit that when I came into bitcoin in late 2013, I had already been investing in a variety of other traditional assets for around 25 years, so in that regard, I had already established an investment portfolio and a variety of practices that I learned and tweaked over the years.

I hardly made shit from my overall traditional investments over the 25 years, and I started out pretty god damned poor.. so I think that when I went through my ballpark estimations of my returns through those 25 years, I had gotten an average of something like 5.5% per year on average.. but part of the matter that put me ahead is the fact that I just continued to build and save and try to learn and NOT really attempting to take too many risks.

So when I came to bitcoin I attempted to apply the same kinds of practices that I had already learned.  I did not have any kind of outrageously fortune to put into bitcoin, and even in the beginning, I had not even realized what my overall allocation was going to be, but I took a set sum of money that I had, and I spread that out for 6 months (I think that it added up to around 2% of the then value of my overall investment portfolio), so my initial tactics were largely DCA with an attempt to front load a wee bit into bitcoin.  When that first 6 months was coming close to ending, maybe around 5 months into it, I pretty much authorized another 6 months on the same terms.. so after 6 months, I was more or less thinking that by the end of 12 months I might end up getting up to 4% of my total investment portfolio into bitcoin.

In the beginning, I considered that I was investing into bitcoin in such a way that I would not feel that I would get reckt if the whole investment went to zero - while at the same time, I was hoping that in the long term my investment into BTC, my attempts at learning along the way and my attempts to tweak and maybe even develop various strategies would end up resulting in at least a similar return as my overall traditional returns of at least 5.5% and I was really aiming for a minimum of 6% per year returns in the long run to actually feel quite good about my bitcoin returns.

Sure, when I got into bitcoin, I had already been able to review the charts and to see that there had already been two price exponential periods that year that added up to around 100x price returns that year.  I was not fooled by that, and I appreciated that such then BTC prices were not likely going to be sustainable in the shorter or longer term, but I still wanted to establish a system to make sure that I got a stake in bitcoin and to just continue to buy in accordance with my plan which initially was to divide the first 6 moths into 26 weeks.. so I took my allocation amounts and I had a weekly allowance from that.. which surely was NOT whale-like amounts...especially when looking at what I was doing on a weekly basis and even spreading those amounts through most of that first year of my investment into bitcoin.

What I am trying to say here, Wind_FURY, is that NOT only am I attempting to make suggestions that attempt to apply similar principles that I had already applied early in my BTC investment and also to things that I had learned even before coming to bitcoin, I am also attempting to share information regarding how guys from a variety of circumstances can also attempt to apply similar practices to what I am suggesting and what I have learned through the years.

Of course, guys have to learn at their own pace and frequently each of us has to learned by putting matters to practice and frequently suffering a few burns along the way.  I surely got burned several times in my whole investment life, yet I understand that each of us is capable of learning and there are surely some guys that can learn from the mistakes and even the learnings of others without actually having to do the dumb shit themselves.  We surely vary in regards to both how we learn and how aggressive we might attempt to be based on matters that we know or think that we know in regards to what has not played out yet.


I surely attempt to appeal to plebs, and I have been saying variations of the same fucking thing since I got into bitcoin, and frequently to tell people to get the fuck started as step one, and surely each of us can figure out aspects of our own approach, but we gotta get started.

Actually, to be fair, it seems that I did not really say much of anything about bitcoin to my friends, relatives and other acquaintances in real life until about late 2014.. so I had already been in bitcoin for about 10 months before I began to say anything.  And, surely there was some variation in what I was saying to peeps in the very beginning about bitcoin as compared to what I said as I continued to learn, but surely a common staple was both to get the fuck started and figure out your financial circumstances so that you can know how much to invest including attempting to follow DCA practices.

I never bought any sub $100 BTC, and I believe that the cheapest bitcoin that I ever bought was around $182 in mid-January 2015, and probably got a bit more than half of a bitcoin from that because I only had around $100 to spend.  Surely, I understand the feeling of running out of money because I recall in that particular round I had blown a lot of whatever I had left in order to buy BTC in the upper $300s in early December 2014.. but the BTC price kept dropping.. fuck that.. and I also recall that my average buy price was in the upper $500s around that time, even though the BTC price ended up gravitating quite a lot in the mid $200s for most of 2015... so fuck that too.. but it happened and I held through it, even though I ended up having some cashflow issues with a business that I had in early 2015 that caused lots of difficulties for me to continue to buy bitcoin during that time.. and lots of people (no coiners including ones that I was telling about BTC in late 2014) were telling me to sell and take some value off the table because bitcoin was not looking good blah blah blah... and it surely took a while to get out of the red.. at least for me.. but I continued to practice what I preach.. and continued to try to learn along the way too.




Hm?  Does not seem that I am saying that exactly, but I am saying get the fuck started. whether the price is $60k $30k or whatever.  Also figure out a strategy that accounts for the three that I mentioned, and then account for your various other circumstances.. which is also not easy to do, and that is cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak along the way including possibly using various financial instruments (which I tend to recommend against the more complicated approaches.. and just get your basics in order).



I attempt to help people to tailor their approach to their own situation.. so does not matter if they are poor as fuck or rich as fuck or somewhere in the middle.. they better have BTC in there somewhere otherwise they will end up on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever seen... And who's gonna want to be on the wrong side of that?  Whatever.. it takes a while to get comfortable with both what BTC is and also to develop a meaningful and self directed strategy.  Of course, there are so many normies who have hardly any clue about their own finances and psychology besides just ballparking it... but still I suggest that they can get started based on their ballparking and then get their shit in order as they are starting to invest in bitcoin .. usually I recommend $80 per month as a starting point, but surely people are going to have some variations in what they are both able to know that they can do or that they can adjust what they are able to do after they get their shit together.. so getting their shit together continues to be quite an important aspect of any financial strategy whether we are talking about bitcoin or not.



I think that people are going to get stressed if they buy at a higher price point and just sit and do nothing, but they have to decide these kinds of matters for themselves, including if maybe they may have made a mistake if they had either put everything in at $60k and then don't have any money.. then they have to wait until either they have more cashflow or they get their shit together.  NO one should be putting themselves into a position where they have to sell at a loss... so if they are doing that, then they are overinvested.

I also believe that no one should be investing money that they need on the short-term, so having at least a 4-year investment timeline is good, and having even a longer timeline of 10 years or more is even better...



Yeah, but how are you going to know?   That's part of the problem.


Nothing wrong with the concept of not FOMOing.  I believe that my suggestion of having a plan and executing such plan is to help in regards to getting emotional about your investment.  Of course, with any BIG price moves, people are going to get nervous, and it can take a long ass time to build up some financial situations that you are a lot less nervous.. and if you are starting from nothing or you are in debt, then frequently it could take a while to build your self out of that including considering various ways that you might be able (or should) be investing in yourself too. rather than consuming or wasting money on depreciating assets or not paying very close attention to your own personal finances.. so it surely is helpful to get your shit in order in a variety of ways so that you are taking out the emotions.

Regarding, your comment about "everything" bitcoin is not everything, so there may be some needs to figure out what the fuck bitcoin is in order to be able to properly apportion your approach to bitcoin as compared with other assets, currencies or investments.  Surely, no one is just going to know or understand bitcoin from the start, but that should not be stopping people from starting a bitcoin investment plan, studying it along the way and then attempting to be able to figure out how bitcoin is different from other investments including better being able to understand the various underpinnings of the currently valid BTC price prediction models and how those models might influence both thinking and planning around BTC investing.  Just to repeat, the currently valid BTC investing models are 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.

If you talk about cryptocurrency, then it will give you a general impression for discussion. See how different it is between bitcoin investing and other altcoin investment. Also if you decide to invest in bitcoin then you have minimized the risk of investing in the long term on the ground that the price of bitcoin is known to have increased every year.

I'm sure you've said the right thing, but the hardest thing to get rid of before making an entry are doubt about the potential they'll get from bitcoin. It is almost certain that whenever a bitcoin price correction occur, the market will recover after some time. But I believe there are still many people who dare not make the decision to buy because there are risks involved.

Didn’t you read anything that I have been posting? Are you suggesting that we should blindly buy Bitcoin at any price, no matter how limited our capital is, and capability of buying the dip, and no matter how stressful this is for a person’s sanity? You are a whale, who came in at the right time, we are merely plebs who try to invest our money efficiently because we never had the same luck as buying Bitcoin under $100 as you.

If I told close friends and family to FOMO buy Bitcoin priced at $60,000 and DCA down, they would be in a state of financial loss, and stressed out. They are not poor, but they are not multi-millionaires like you. The money is still important to them.

But, if you believe that your way to buy the dip is better, then OK. I will never buy on a seller’s market when everything is overpriced. I’m also very confident that everything in the market corrects itself, and we should never FOMO.

We are not talking about "crypto" in this here thread.  We are talking about bitcoin... no one is trying to apply the buy on dip and hodl concept to some amorphous concept such as "crypto" because it is not likely going to work very well because there are different pumpening and dumpening principles at play when referring to "crypto".. so fuck that shit.. try to stay focused on bitcoin, here.

We are also not buying and selling tokens.. we are buying bitcoin or holding or various other tactics in regards to bitcoin, and so part of the recent discussions in this thread have been about whether this particular dip might be over yet or not.. talking about bitcoin.. focus.. focus..

If you want to talk about some shitcoin, token or crypto that is not bitcoin, then do it in some other thread... surely the way that you talk about your tactics of anything not bitcoin is going to be different if you are not focusing on bitcoin.. . which focus is what we are attempting to do here, in this thread.

That's right, bro, only those who dare to take risks will become successful in crypto. we must have the courage to take the right decision after reading a variety of information and analyzing a variety of characteristics so that it becomes a benchmark in a decision to buy or sell tokens.