Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 598. (Read 131662 times)

FUD has happened and made the price of Bitcoin plunge to $ 30k, and is currently trading at a price of $ 38k,
yeah good enough the bounce is going on, and I think this is the DIP of Bitcoin, although many people are drawing that Bitcoin price will dive even deeper at the minimum to $ 20k,
I still deny it will happen, I believe the Bitcoin price will continue to increase from today.

Sure, opinions might vary, but I would assert that such season never went away.

Of course, if we go into a long season of a bear market, by definition there would be advantages in waiting, but one of the problems even with waiting in that context would be that you could end up being wrong about the extent of the bear market in terms of both quantity of drop and length of the time that the price is going to be down.

In 2018, I personally did not concede that we had gone into a bear market until about mid-November when the BTC price broke quite severely below $6k and went down to about $4,500 right way and then got down to as low as $3,124.. so I was not conceding bear market for very long, and we did not even stay there very long.. but I did not concede to being out of the bear market until around mid-May 2019.. when we saw a pretty rapid rise in BTC price starting about April 1, from the lower $4ks to about $7k or more by mid May but even that did not last very long until the end of June getting to $13,880, but I still continued to assert that the bear market had been over as of April 1, even though I had not appreciated being out of it until Mid-May.

And, sure I have been told my personal definitions of what is a bear market or a bull market do not fit with traditional and widely accepted definitions.. and I give no fucks.  In essence, each of us who are attempting to incorporate buy the dip strategies that we might increase or decrease in terms of where we feel that the market might go will need to have some parameters for how we assess where we are at and where we might be going.. and if we might want to attempt to be strategic about some of our cash or maybe just have some quasi-blind systems about other portions of our stash so that we might not overthink and end up getting some matters wrong by holding back too much cash when maybe we should have injected a wee bit more than we did on whatever dippening had happened already.

I believe the season of “Buy the dip, and HODL” might be back. But do it slow, with a proper dollar-cost-averaging plan, either up or down.

If you’re concerned with the FUD, be comforted to understand that Bitcoin has continued to work, and chug along, producing block after block, with no down time.

If you can do it, then every single other person (or institution) should be able to do it too.  Sure the proportions might be different based on a variety of factors including how much they might already have in bitcoin... and surely, I propose that there should be some urgency for those who do not have any value in bitcoin, and part of that malpractice would be to be telling nocoiners to wait when that is already their scared ass inclinations.. so if you tell nocoiners to wait then you are reinforcing something that they already want to do... which is to scare them out of getting the fuck started.

Hey, I am no damned salesmen when it comes to talking to people online or even in real life because I am frequently telling them that they gotta do what works for them.. but I almost tell anyone who asks about bitcoin to get started rather than waiting and for me, it does not even matter what the BTC price happens to be at the time.... but of course, we do not completely ignore price either because once getting started, there may be some considerations of the current price, historical price and where the price might go in terms of figuring out actual allocations and ways forward.

Of course out of the three BTC accumulation strategies, there are ways to proportion each part of those allocation strategies.. that is the lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dip.. and of course, the HODL is going to kick in when anyone might run out of money at various points and the dippening keeps happening beyond their budgeted amount.



Buy with everything you can, once you establish your budget.  Of course, peeps gotta establish their budgets first, and so many people do not really have good grasps on what is their budget exactly.. get that shit in order and then buying with everything that they can should also be divided into the three tactics of lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips... There is no need to shoot the whole wadd at one price and then have nothing left if the price dips which just causes feelings of panic to NOT be in a place to be able to do anything because all in was already done at a much higher price then the subsequent dippening price.


I doubt it is "safest" to say wait... Seems to me safest to "get the fuck started" and then to apportion in accordance with your own situation.  So set up accounts is the first thing.. maybe put $10 in each account, figure out your situation, establish your goals and plans and then start to execute.  Some people can spare $1 week and others might be able to spare $1,000 per week, but I still might suggest to be careful about whatever is done, so frequently, I will suggest establishing a plan that allows for 6 months or longer in terms of attempting to plan out a budget..

So let's say for example that a person has $6k in cash and $6k in expected cashflow over the next six months, then that is $12k for their 6-month budget but they do not have access to all $12k at that particular moment.. and they better NOT be exaggerating their expected cashflow either..,. because each of us should attempt to be realistic with our own projections of our cashflow and what we have reasonably available to invest into BTC or anything else for that matter.. gotta be able to continually be able to pay the bills and to pay any emergency expenses that will come up.. and emergency expenses are inevitable.. especially if you have not planned for them #justsaying.

Sure $12k might seem like a lot of money, and a lot of people might not even have that much extra that they can afford to invest in bitcoin, even if spread over 6 months.. but whatever, I largely am using that amount because it is a nice round number and easy to divide in several ways.

For example, lump sum might involved taking 1/3 ($4k) and investing right way or alternatively taking ONLY 1/3 of what is actually available ($2k) and investing right away.  Then the next 1/3 wouls  be set up for DCA so $4k/26=$153.85 per week, and then 1/3 for buying on dips.  Maybe look at our current price, and then consider intervals down to $20k  $4k / 40 would be $100 for each interval (or some other variation of comfort that could be moved with the passage of time)..

So if during the next 6 months there is a cashflow shortage (there better not be because hopefully your cashflow estimates were already conservative), then there might be a need to take from the allocation.. more likely, if you have planned conservatively, during the next 6 months there might be some cash that comes in that was not counted upon when making the 6 month projection, so when the new quasi-unexpected cash comes in, it is plugged into the three categories of the existing system.  If the amount that comes in is $3k for example (yes nice and divisible) then it is divided by 3 and 1/3 goes to lump sum, 1/3 goes to DCA and 1/3 goes to buying on dip.

Anyone can adjust the specifics to their own situation, but there should be attempts to consider all the categories, especially if in an accumulation stage and on a budget.. once accumulation goals are met, then there would likely be a lot of relaxing of the practices and strategies.. but then also much easier to sit back and relax a bit once accumulation goals are reached... sure if someone is relatively young in their 20s to 40s, then they might never really believe that they graduated from accumulation goals because their fuck you (retirement) timeline might still be a wee bit into the future.. but again, each person has to consider those kinds of matters, and surely you might consider that I might be picking on the young-uns, but I am not, one of the problems of being in your 20s is that there is a whole fucking long time to need to be able to support ur lil selfie on whatever richness that you have accumulated.. so you gots to be careful in terms of pulling the fuck you lever way too early if you are in your 20s if you have not figured out a plan in which the amount of capital that you have accumulated is able to support you without unduly depleting the principle in the process of 50 to 70 years of drawing upon it if you were to be so young and with a potentially long timeline in which you would be wanting to live off of your accumulated wealth.


No problem about being confused and humbled, even though your outline of the OP does seem to apply, especially if we have a dip, then shouldn't we either be buying or HODLing?  And, if the dip last long enough and we might have some cashflow come in.. let's say that we earn anywhere between $3k to $6k per month (again nice round numbers), but for some reason, we have about $2,400 to $4,800 in expenses, so we ONLY have $600 to $1,200 (round numbers) left for consideration to potentially put into bitcoin.  Are we going to buy the dip?  DCA? HODL? or something else?  Sure, waiting is a form of HODL, I suppose, but if you don't fucking got ur lil selfie no bitcoin then you are NOT prepared for UPpity.. you are ONLY prepared for DOWNity, which does not seem to be a good place to be..

One of my ongoing suggestions for everyone is to prepare for both directions, and sure you have to come to your own conclusions regarding what those preparations can reasonably be, and so many nocoiners and even bitcoiners themselves tend to be way more prepared for DOWNity than they are for UPpity.. and that has been part of their problem, even in the past couple of bitcoin cycles.. to overly prepare for DOWNity and to under prepare for UPpity.. and historically bitcoin has shown us (likely to continue into the future) that you do not even need to prepare a lot for UPpity in order to be able to profit stupendously from whatever UPpity preparations that you have made.. just get the fuck off of zero.  hahahahaha

Personally, I can buy the dip + DCA, but would I advice it for close friends and relatives, WHO I told to buy with everything they can when Bitcoin was trading under $10,000? For their own sanity, NO. I can do it, in fact I did it, but I don’t want to be blamed for the person who to told them to do it, but Bitcoin crashes and they cannot bear it. I will give them the safest advice, the same for the readers of this topic.

BUT, I’m confused JJG, and humbled.

Of course, we can have differing view on these kinds of matters, and I believe that it might even be a stretch that you are even following the same advice of the OP that you wrote in this thread or some of the underlying ideas of the title of the thread.  Of course, each of us is entitled to change our mind, and frequently, it is a good thing to attempt to learn with the passage of time from facts and logic and so changing our minds is likely expected, yet having communicated with you somewhat on this topic previously causes me to speculate that not even you consider yourself to be changing your mind with any kind of material and significant substance because you some how seem to believe that calculating the BTC price to be toppy or whatever other nonsense you seem to be suggesting causes you to be giving pretty damned crappy advice to your friend.

Hopefully your friend is either not listening to you or maybe you could at least put some kind of disclaimer in there about your not really knowing too much including that you are both scared by your own shadow and the implications of your earlier advice to the thread to buy on the dip... blah blah blah.

Not only are you fucking up in terms of considering this particular price run to be frothy, you seem to be failing/refusing to recognize as price drop of somewhere in the ballpark of 53% (from $64,895 to $30,066) as a pretty damned decent buying opportunity in the whole scheme of things - especially for anyone who might be considering buying on dips to be part of their approach to bitcoin accumulation strategies. 


I believe that any of us look stupid when we try to lock too much into trying to predict the BTC price with any kind of specificity and putting too much of our eggs in such basket.. and maybe I am even contradicting my own thinking and practices here because through the years, I have been preparing for UP, not tending to sell too much in order to mostly be prepared for UP and to buy on dips.. but there are expectations that in the long term the price is going to go up.. and within that even if any of us might not get tied too much into short term price predictions, we might have some practices that attempt to take advantage of short term volatility.

Furthermore, I perceive that one of the problems of your own shorter-term attempts to figure out waves, is that you are hedging for a possibility that the end of this wave could possibly be over earlier than expected but at the same time suggesting that the BTC price could go up so high that the bottom is relatively higher than our current top...

Fuck that shit, Wind_FURY.  What you are recommending to nocoiners makes little sense if you really dig into it.. and is almost to a degree of incoherence.

A way better suggestion is to say something like:  "I am so fucking scared because the BTC price could go up or it could go down from here, and even though I would usually recommend putting 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio into bitcoin, since I  am so goddamned confused about the matter, and there still is a possibility that your investment into BTC could perform quite well, I am recommending only putting 1% into bitcoin and that will end up being practical in terms of balancing upside and downside risks."

I still am having problems with that, but it is better than saying keep your value in dollars in the next several years.. but whatever, I already largely said what I believe in my earlier posts  and as each of us develops and hopefully implements our various prongs of our strategies, we end up being in a better place to make further tailoring and tweaks with the passage of time including deciding if we might put more value in one place or another or to just HODL because we are comfortable with our allocations and recommending anyone who is already on zero to stay on zero is fucking irresponsible.  Fuck that. 

Every single person should get the fuck off zero when it comes to bitcoin, and it is up to them how much of an allocation to make.. probably the main exception is getting their financial shit in order so that they might be able to determine if they can only put $1 per week into bitcoin or if they can put $1,000 or more per week into bitcoin.

No, and no experience in trading.


I told him to work hard and save for the next 3 years, and if Bitcoin continues to follow the past bull-bear cycles, then start buying the dip + DCA probably starting 2023. It’s the safest advice I can give him.



You might be right there, and I’m afraid that I might look stupid again because I discouraged them to buy now, told them to wait for the next bear cycle, but what if the bottom of the next cycle is $60,000 - $70,000. Hahaha.

This thread is about bitcoin, so your suggestions about what to do with shitcoins is off topic.

I personally believe that HODL does not apply to that crap, but that is a discussion for some other thread, for sure.


This thread is not about "crypto" but as far as bitcoin is concern, the suggestion of OP is to buy ever dip and HODL.. and sure some of us, including myself, also suggest continuing DCA.. but that all applies to bitcoin.. regarding shitcoins, you must be more strategic regarding your ins and outs.. and that remains a whole other discussion that is beyond the topic of this thread since the principles are likely different, even though many people get mislead into believing that they can apply the same principles to shitcoins as they do to bitcoin, which seems a really BIG error in thinking from my perspective.

Regarding bitcoin, seems that there have been good opportunities to buy in the past week or longer.. and I am not even going to rest assured that the bottom is in until we get back above $50k.. so there could be some uncertainties in that regarding if it is going to take a few weeks or perhaps 3-6 months.. I doubt that it will take longer than that, but surely there are not any guarantees even when sticking with attempts at analysis of the king daddy.

Keep holding thats best thing to do at the moment. Most of my assets are also in bloody red but it doesnt affect me too much, its a normal cycle and just temporary so why worry?  We really need a lot of patience to keep hodling so I suggest to forget for a while the market and focus on other things.

For investors missed the bullish market, this is the right time to fill your bags, buy the dip. We are still in second quarter and there's more to look forward so stay positive and ignore the negative news surrounding crypto.

Patient friends, the price will definitely increase again, there is no price that always goes down,
correction is very reasonable in the bullmarket, of course, with certain conditions, if from the existing index,
this year is the year for altcoins, if you hold altcoins then just hold, don't sell it cheaply

Rekt. Bought so many tokens and coins during that bullish cycle. Now I will have to hold them for much longer time.
Let's hope this bear cycle gets over soon. We have seen some bad news and market crashed. Where is it going to stop nobody knows

Funny how sorcerer wannabe's try to find ways to be correct no matter what?

Don't you recall instructing to go away for a month or two?

You are saying that it is all about reaching the number?

In other words, u doesn't know shit...

Except that there was a lot of momentum.

Another thing is that when there is a BIG ASS wick.. like the one that we see from the last hour or so, and then a pretty BIG ASS bounce back, which seems that could be happening currently, then there could be a sign that the bottom is in.. but surely not guaranteed, and I am personally not going to rest very comfortably about the bottom being in until we are a considerable distance from it in terms of both quantity and time.. perhaps getting back above $50k.. but depending on how it may play out in the coming week or so.


Size of the bounce back (short term wick) looking pretty BIG right now (from a low of $30,066 about 40 minutes ago to a bounce back up to about $37,581 about 10 minutes ago).. but I surely do not claim to know much beyond wanting to criticize others for making pretty strong claims of certainty in regards to the future... which frequently is problematic... so I have no clues if this wick is going to resolve the matter or we may have another leg down.. depending on the way recovery plays out.. and very difficult to speculate with any kind of confidence (not that I ever do) while the dumpening and attempt at recovery battle is in progress (edited this paragraph to add current bouncing around numbers).. price currently bouncing between $35,800-ish and $36,500-ish in the last 5 minutes or so as I type.

As long as you are prepared psychologically and financially for either up or down, then I suppose that it does not matter which way it goes.

Just don't prepare only for one BTC price direction that might not happen.. which is likely the punchline.

I guarantee that the BTC price has to go to $45k before it goes to $55k   

don't be too pessimistic. bitcoin price may drop below $ 40k, but I'm pretty sure there will be a rise after this. well, maybe a lot of factors are supporting the decline in bitcoin price like Elon Musk, or China, but I'm pretty sure the price won't drop more than $ 35k this year. Well, right now I still hope the price goes back up to $ 45k, before going up to $ 55k again.

Are you very sure the cycle will reach $ 32k or more precisely this cycle has stopped at a lower level.

 maybe the cycle will start spinning back upwards of $ 45k.

I prefer to think it's time to buy a lot of sauce and then hold it for a period of time.

First, we are not talking about crypto here.. we are talking about bitcoin.. so just to clarify that angle and a sometimes ambiguity that can come from your use of such crypto term.

Second, buying on dips is only one component of figuring out how are you going to get a stake into bitcoin, so if you wait until $30k to $32k you may well never have that number reached, and sure of course, where someone is at can make a pretty BIG difference in considerations.

Third, dollar cost average method is a very solid method that buys at any price on a regular basis (I personally recommend at least weekly but budgets and purchase locations might affect those intervals) with an assumption that there is nearly no way to know where the price of an asset is going to go (especially BTC), so in that regard, you are being quite presumptuous 3meek to suggest that you know much of anything about BTC price direction.. especially in the short to medium term.. including that we are still likely in a bull market.. whether you believe it or no.

Fourth, I personally employed front loading investment, buying on dip and DCA averaging to get my initial stake in bitcoin in 2013, 2014, and 2015 and I believe that it worked out very well because even though some people claim they knew what was going to happen when BTC prices went down from $1,163 to $200-ish from 2013 to 2014 and largely get stuck in the mid $250s for the vast majority of 2015, this was not really known with any certainty, even though after the fact a person can look back and feel all kinds of self-righteous confidence about should have waited and bought on dips blah blah blah.. and some of those folks who waited did not get in or were too BIG of pussies in regards to trying to time the market and/or failing refusing to take any kind of meaningful stake into BTC.

Fifth, I have seen time after time during the bullrun of late 2015 to late 2017 that peeps were scared to buy the dip on several occasions, got scared from some of the various dips along the way, thought the BTC price was going lower, and ended up waiting too god-damned long, failed/refused to be sufficiently aggressive about their BTC investment, and sometimes especially ends up happening after a BIG dip and then waiting for another 20-40% dip that does not happen... and ultimately too greedy or too preoccupied about trying to be too smart in their attempt to time the market when they should have just bought.. saw it over and over..

Sixth.. this time is different.. who knows?  We have pretty decent currently valid BTC price prediction models that are not broken and we do not seem to be in a bear market, so if you consider that you know better, then so be it.. maybe you will be right.. maybe not....,.

Seven, if you have absolutely no stake in bitcoin, this is a great time to get the fuck in..  Just like $64k was.. so start out by thinking about 1% to 10% and tailor to your own situation.. and you are responsible for your own situation and your own investment approach.. there is a lot of information out there...some of it better than others.

So in regards to this friend.... does he own any bitcoin?

I would say buy the dip or continue with your dollar cost averaging, and if you have not gotten into bitcoin yet, get the fuck in.

Of course, overall you are correct, and we do not know if the top is in with the $64,895 that was reached on April 13..   To me, it seems very doubtful that that is the end of the BTC run for this cycle, but it surely remains possible that we could have a bit of a pause here that lasts a few months or maybe even 9 months or so.. and then resumption of the UPpity.. and of course none of that is guaranteed including that we might not get past $64,895 for another 3-5 years (and that seems doubtful scenario to me in terms of the end of UPpity until then.. but any of us HODLers and accumulators of bitcoin need to be mentally and financially prepared for a variety of scenarios, including the less likely scenarios.

So in the end?  what should your friend do?  Partly depends on his own situation and if he has already reached his BTC accumulation target.. then he could either be in a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage.. but if his timeline is longer than 4 years, then he should not necessarily be in a liquidation stage.. but hey depends in part on particulars, too.

I know Wind_FURY (I am razzing you a bit), that you are reluctant to proclaim that peeps should be engaging in DCA buying on a regular basis, yet I continue to believe that DCA remains a great frame work.. and sure they have to keep in mind that there might be considerable more additional dip (even though it seems that we are currently in a bull market), and if we end up converting into a bear market our dip could get into the sub $20k territory.. perhaps?  perhaps? 

Anyone who ONLY thinks about DOWN scenarios in times like these is likely going to miss opportunities for accumulating BTC and sufficiently and adequately preparing for UP.. at least in my humble bumble opinion.

One of my closest friends called me to ask if the crash was the end of the current bull cycle. I told him, “It’s very painful, but I don’t know”, BUT I also told him that if it’s truly the end, then he should work hard and save for the next 4 years to get in the next golden opportunity.

It’s a joke. When Bitcoin was $10,000 last year, and went over, everyone on Twitter was tweeting “Bitcoin will never trade below $10,000 ever again”, which of course it did a few times before surging to ATH.


Not really sure if that would be a necessary condition, but such resolution could have some parallels to the 2017 softfork and various battles, even though these current battles in regards to Taproot (to the extent that you might want to exaggerate them) seem like mostly a BIG nothing burger even if you and other peeps seem inclined to draw parallels.. which is not completely illogical, but does seem to have some considerable differences, as well... and whether the market knows or gives any shits about Taproot seems to be a bit of speculation regarding supposed importance of a seemingly somewhat obscure concept.. that even many of longer term bitcoiners are not too enthusiastic about whether it goes through or not and/or what it might mean.. blah blah blah.. even though I will concede that there seems to be considerable overwhelming consensus that it would be a good thing for bitcoin to go through, even though the signaling of the miners seem to be dragging out longer than what such supposed consensus and preference for taproot would suggest.. including maybe that some miners need to just move their shit over to pools that are signaling for taproot rather than supporting miners that are not.


Your seeming desire for drama on this topic has been pointed out in another thread.. and I am starting to see that as well... but whatever, we are each allowed to have our opinions and theories, even if they might seem to be attempting to stir shit up rather than pointing out real material or concerning dynamics.


You seem to be exaggerating Wind_FURY... .. sure some miner pools are not signaling for it but we are still ONLY into the second difficulty period in which this is being measured..

I think that the general trend is UP in terms of signaling.. and as I type, there is so far 63.69% for this period, and of course, there needs to have 90% reached, but the movement of signaling does seem to be slowly increasing.. even though you want to identify negativity in this.. which also seems quite premature.. even if the 90% for quick update is never achieved and the taproot matter has to be readdressed through another way.  Does not seem to be the end of the world nor even as dramatic or dire as you want to ascribe to such happenings, including that so far, there has NOT really been any objections to it from anyone of importance.. and maybe just exaggeration of the significance of it from bitcoin haters or shitcoin pumpers blah blah blah.. hopefully you are not one of them, Wind_FURY merely because you are employing similar kinds of exaggerated and seemingly drama-based talking points.