Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 599. (Read 131662 times)

Ok.. whatever with repeating such numerology nonsense... which seems already untrue.. since if you recall the first time that BTC passed through $10k, it corrected quickly for a week or two and then it doubled in a short period of time, corrected back down to $10k and revisited $10k several times - to the extent even significant beyond coincidence.. and golly gee whiz probably one of the ONLY ways that $50k could become something like the old $10k would be if we might get a quick doubling from here (and our stagnation around $50k for about 3 months also seems to negate such thesis regarding the significance of $50k currently.... but whatevers)....

Another thing you had already proclaimed we are never going below $50k again.. wasn't that in March-ish..

And another thing (I am having trouble running out of things in regards to your level of nonsense Wind_FURY... thanks for making so much funzies, at least for me.)...   I am having some troubles (in playing with your this is like $10k bullshit) inferring that either the top of this particular cycle would be $100k-ish or that our subsequent correction would be going below $50k for any significant amount of time.. sure it may well go below $50k but it seems quite fucking more likely that our current $50k is more like either $3k or like $5k.. and kind of leaning towards the former.. but I don't really proclaim to know very much except for getting feelings for attempting to incorporate aspects of the various convincing BTC price prediction models into my thinking in terms of attempting to figure out where we might be in the current cycle, and where we may well be going based on where we are at.. which surely is far from guaranteed too, but seems to bring way better conclusions than just throwing out some random number and claiming it is like some other random number and the facts and logic do not really line up including the seeming failure / refusal to adequately account for our current credible BTC price prediction models.


Not really sure if that would be a necessary condition, but such resolution could have some parallels to the 2017 softfork and various battles, even though these current battles in regards to Taproot (to the extent that you might want to exaggerate them) seem like mostly a BIG nothing burger even if you and other peeps seem inclined to draw parallels.. which is not completely illogical, but does seem to have some considerable differences, as well... and whether the market knows or gives any shits about Taproot seems to be a bit of speculation regarding supposed importance of a seemingly somewhat obscure concept.. that even many of longer term bitcoiners are not too enthusiastic about whether it goes through or not and/or what it might mean.. blah blah blah.. even though I will concede that there seems to be considerable overwhelming consensus that it would be a good thing for bitcoin to go through, even though the signaling of the miners seem to be dragging out longer than what such supposed consensus and preference for taproot would suggest.. including maybe that some miners need to just move their shit over to pools that are signaling for taproot rather than supporting miners that are not.


Your seeming desire for drama on this topic has been pointed out in another thread.. and I am starting to see that as well... but whatever, we are each allowed to have our opinions and theories, even if they might seem to be attempting to stir shit up rather than pointing out real material or concerning dynamics.


You seem to be exaggerating Wind_FURY... .. sure some miner pools are not signaling for it but we are still ONLY into the second difficulty period in which this is being measured..

I think that the general trend is UP in terms of signaling.. and as I type, there is so far 63.69% for this period, and of course, there needs to have 90% reached, but the movement of signaling does seem to be slowly increasing.. even though you want to identify negativity in this.. which also seems quite premature.. even if the 90% for quick update is never achieved and the taproot matter has to be readdressed through another way.  Does not seem to be the end of the world nor even as dramatic or dire as you want to ascribe to such happenings, including that so far, there has NOT really been any objections to it from anyone of importance.. and maybe just exaggeration of the significance of it from bitcoin haters or shitcoin pumpers blah blah blah.. hopefully you are not one of them, Wind_FURY merely because you are employing similar kinds of exaggerated and seemingly drama-based talking points.

$50,000 is the new $10,000. I believe the market is simply waiting for the soft fork for the Taproot upgrade before resuming back to the surge going to 6 digits. The soft fork might not go as smoothly as expected in my opinion. Some mining pools are not signalling for it, but hopefully during the next coming weeks.

People who wants to get rich quick are the ones that don't get rich, I have learned that from some old people in my place and with those words to guide, I know which things to avoid in terms of making money. The current price is a good time buy some bitcoin right now that people are still irrationally mad about Elon pulling the bitcoin payment for Tesla out.

There are also many people who invest in shitcoins are those in the search for the “better Bitcoin”, because they think that Bitcoin is already an obsolete “boomer coin”. I honestly had the same experience plus the desire to get rich quick, but learned the hard way. Hahaha.

I think that I am attempting to be descriptive rather than prescriptive, even though I do have my own tendencies to denigrate the tendencies of people to gamble, to buy into the shitcoin talking points and to get distracted by shitcoin pumpenings.  There is a certain level of desire to get rich quick, and then if they see that there could be abilities to put small amounts of money to get large percentages of returns, these kinds of folks will subsequently conclude that they it may well be a good idea to put large amounts of money in order to magnify their returns.

I realize that there is likely NOT a whole hell of a lot that I can do about these matters, but you never know too in terms of attempting to help some people to learn about their self-sabotaging tendencies to be able to learn - at least on the margins to NOT take so many risks with their investments.. to treat their investments like investments rather than like gambling.

So accordingly, some of my real life conversations have caused quite a bit of frustration for me because even some basic principles do not seem to sink in for people, even though I have tendencies to repeat myself over and over and then when they say something about how they interpret a potential plan forward, it seems that little to nothing has sunk in their noggens.. and surely people learn way better when they can experience some matters for themselves, and even with the dumb stubborn fucks (who happen to be friends and relatives) with whom I speak in real life, happen to at least just start to get involved early by setting up some accounts and maybe attempting to control themselves to a wee bit of degree, maybe they will not get too reckt, learn along the way and be able to profit in the longer run by at least attempting to put some level of priority to bitcoin accumulation rather than focusing too much on short term dollar denominated profits or losses.. a work in process and probably gambling tendencies and doubts about bitcoin that are NOT going to go away anytime soon.



Yes.. surely, I see this tendency too, which does provide some hope that at least smart people might realize the bullish case for bitcoin, so the information has always been there and there seems to be some even more compelling kinds of evidence in recent times - even though normies still have tendencies to misread and even fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate some of the bullish information and to act accordingly without getting distracted into shitcoins which may well include valuing their wealth too much in that shitcoin known as dollars which will also cause them to sell too much bitcoin too soon or fail/refuse to buy bitcoin because they are too greedy in their waiting for a dip that might not happen... or failing/refusing to act upon a dip that just happened... I.e our lil dippening to $45,700.



Of course, there are peeps coming around, on the cusp of investing into bitcoin, and even making decently smart statements that should be helpful for normies to recognize and realize both the bullish case for bitcoin and the prudency of taking actions to ensure long term investment plans into bitcoin including getting started, getting a stake,  setting accumulation targets, and acting on their plans, even if their budgets might only allow them to inject modest amounts into bitcoin until perhaps they get their finances in order, which is another problem that normies tend to devolve into... if you cannot get some of your cashflow in order to be able to keep up with expenses, then it might become even more difficult to set aside a bit of the cashflow for investing and recognizing NOT to over do it until getting ones cashflow in order.


These are some justifications that I attempt to suggest that buying on dips also need to be accompanied by DCA practices.  So for example if any normie realizes that he has $1,200 extra in his cashflow that he is able to invest into bitcoin, he may well want to spread that investment out over some period of time including using some to buy right away, using some to DCA and using some to buy on dips.  I know that it seems like it is going to cause fees to become too high or to cause too much complication by creating a lot of small amounts to put in different categories, but I would suggest that the longer that normies practice with these kinds of managements of their cashflow, the easier it becomes, so getting another $1,200 in cashflow that can be allocated to BTC investing ends up getting added to some kind of BTC fund that should already exist and then maybe some of the money has self-created and self-directed timelines such as weekly or monthly that it should be invested which should take away some of the "wait and see" aspect that may well cause some people to be waiting too much for dips that might not happen or kicking themselves when dips happen after already buying decent chunks or using their (weekly, or whatever) allocation of cash to buy bitcoin.

I'm kinda wary of these words, its close to crowded trade which is something to avoid because of over speculation which can result in adverse effects that cause that previously reliable and observable trend to at least reset.   Problem is traders use leverage so when something becomes too popular I think it can get ruined in its reliance, its pretty much a universal rule for open markets and we tend to go in cycles of movement rather then easily move up (or down).
   Just a passing thought anyway, I'm watching moves like anyone else not certain except that dollar index really has some battles ahead of it quite likely.

Let them. But the fact that many people, respected people, are coming around and finding cryptocurrencies to be a fall back/back up in case the the financial system fails is definitely bullish. I believe the more they learn, they throw all shitcoins, and HODL Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/status/1392093978812633088


That’s from one of the most respected investors. He finally understands what we understood. He’s not into Bitcoin now, but I’m confident that he will be.

Ultimately, you have to figure out some kind of system that is comfortable for you.

I frequently suggest for peeps to prepare for a wide variety of scenarios of UP, DOWN and sideways, and if you are over invested in UP, then you can really get your self in a pickle if it goes down further and longer than you expected.

I will agree with you that it can be difficult, and I will also agree that it is probably the most difficult while you are in accumulation (and perhaps not even in a profitable stage).  My bitcoins were largely not profitable for my first three years in bitcoin between late 2013 and early to mid 2017.... Surely, there was a decent amount of Upwards price movements that happened in 2016 and 2017, but even in March 2017, there were dips below $1,000 that caused peeps to proclaim that "for sure" that we were revisiting $500, which never ended up happening, but at the time, we could not really know, but any of us investing into bitcoin needed to be prepared financially and psychologically in the event that scenario were to play out  - and maybe without betting too much in either direction, even though we can know only after the fact that UP played out and Down did not.

hodling is stressful at some point when its the only money you have. the moment it dips because of elon's tweet, i was about to reply how fuckedup his brain.

time will tell. i actually converted my ETH at $52000 last week and i thought it was the dippest it could get before it goes back up to $64 again and break out. heck this analysis of mine isn't as sharp as i thought. i didn't see how it goes below $47k today, if i was just watching the chart i could have panicked already. but okay I'm gonna hold. 

Well, as plebs, we have been very lucky to have had bitcoin as an investment opportunity, and frequently there are a lot of real difficulties to enter into investments without having a lot of capital beforehand.

Bitcoin has really allowed plebs to be able to figure out their budgets and then just enter at whatever level is comfortable for them whether that is $5 per week or some other modest amount.  Even $100 a week might not be a lot these days given the amount of money printing going on, but at the same time, historically, plebs had difficulties being able to enter into investments at their own paces, and surely we know if plebs spend enough time investing into bitcoin, they will be able to build a base, and there are good odds that bitcoin will continue to outperform any other investments.  

In recent months, I have been meeting with quite a few people in real life and talking about bitcoin, and they just seem so god damned ongoingly distracted by either wanting to get into shitcoins or gambling in other ways with their bitcoin approach.  I frequently suggest the same thing, including getting started right away.. and don't get distracted by shitcoins.

So, any pleb, who ends up attempting to restrain themselves a bit more and at least get started with bitcoin, and even study along the way, will likely profit quite well in the coming years, including our dip from today down to $45,700-ish.... Sure, if you already have your bitcoin related accounts set up (or your ways to get bitcoin exposure), you have some money in the accounts, and perhaps you have some kinds of plans to buy in various scenarios, including buying on dips, today's dip (within the past six hours at the time of this post) seems to have been a pretty decent buying opportunity - and sure, none of us know if it is going to dip more or not.. even though we have seen BTC prices bouncing around between about $42k-ish and $65k-ish for the past 3.5 months, and even looking at those past 3.5 months the BTC price trend does continue to appear to be UPpity inclined... time will tell.

Zoom out whenever the word “SELL” enters your mind. Bitcoin has been on a super bull cycle since 2011. Don’t listen to the forum trolls, negative news, nocoiners and toxic anti-Bitcoin people.


Indeed, but as plebs we should find better bids of entry, which can only be found during “super corrections”. It would be better for our mental health.

It looks like this is the trend in BTC right now, everyone is just waiting for a dip and enter as soon as they feel btc has hit the support level. It'll be a foolish thing to sell at this moment even though many planned to sell when the price was below 20000$.
The accumulation and the rally in the Bitcoin shows that investors want to hold right now and will buy in every dip.

Shower thought, maybe some smart billionaires are waiting for the Taproot upgrade to activate before bidding to purchase Bitcoin. Are they expecting another “drama” for the soft fork? Only 36.61% of signalling blocks, https://taproot.watch/

Might need another fierce community campaign for another UASF?

First of all, fuck crypto.  We are not talking about crypto here.  We are talking about bitcoin.

if you want to talk about bitcoin, then it is way better to be using that term.  If you want to talk about crypto, then way better to take that amorphous bullshit talk to some other thread.

Surely there are guys who might end up doing quite well, even if they are not exactly in agreement regarding whether the BTC price dip is enough or not, and surely some peeps rely on signs that the market is recovering before they start buying.

I personally do not believe in that philosophy, and the theme of this thread (buy every dip) does not seem to be asserting anything like that kind of philosophy either.

Of course, each of us might come to variations in regards to how much dip we might need and also how much value we might ascribe to dollar cost averaging buying - which has also proven to be a very sound approach to buying bitcoin, and not waiting around too long by lame-ass attempts to try to time the market which just ends up causing your to fuck around too long without acquiring a decently sized stash when the BTC price goes shooting upwardly unexpectedly and never comes back down.. which has happened numerous times in bitcoin's history - and I would not rule out such future exponentially UPpity unexpected explosions in BTC price that end up NOT coming back down in any kind of reasonable and meaningful way. 

Take the many screwballs who sold around the previous ATH of $20k, and surely I was suggesting not to be selling much if any coins between $17,500 and $23,5000, and it ends up that even I was way too conservative because in the end, if you think about the matter, retroactively thinking we did not spend too much time in the $17k to sub $40k territory.. and many people were trying to time it and buy back and blah blah blah.. that surely did not end up working out too well.. and we have many examples like that in bitcoin's history.

Another aspect is the need to consider how much of a stake that you might have in bitcoin and whether you are adequately prepared for UPpity.. even if you might have a lot of opportunities to buy at various prices between $40k and $65k, it may still hardly make a difference at what end of the range you end up buying, in the event that you are already inadequately allocated into bitcoin. 

Of course if you have a target to start out your BTC investment to be something like 1% to 10% of your total investment portfolio, and you have already achieved your personal target, then at that point you are surely going to have more flexibility in terms of waiting out further dips, and I personally have put a decent amount of value to just buying on an ongoing basis (aka DCAing), but of course, none of us are forced to rely on one strategy and we can employ a combination of strategies in order to feel that we are adequately preparing ourselves for either price directions... and the three strategies that I find most useful is 1) DCA, 2) buying on dip and 3) lump sum buying, and I believe that any BTC accumulation strategy would be inadequate if it does not at least attempt to consider and employ all three of the strategies.

Personally, I consider the HODL strategy coming into play in a variety of ways, including if there might be cashflow shortages, and frequently it is going to be better to just HODL through such periods rather than something like selling or some other form(s) of gambling with the BTC that you have already acquired (assuming that you have acquired some, at some point).

I am talking to different people lately since I have posted a crypto related on my social media. I did not think that most of friends now are already familiar in crypto but only in trading. They did not knew this forum.
Anyway, I kept telling each of them to buy since the market is red. I know in myself I was only joking but one of them told me no. I will not buy yet. The market seems to be bearish. I come up with one thing about him. Even the market is down, he still needs timing to buy. He will wait the start of bullish market so he will not wait long or hold to gain profit. I am not sure how effective this but I think it is good if you can really read price directions.

Sure it might depend upon how you think, and of course, if we are just talking about bitcoin, then it is a bit easier to make sure to specify that, but if we are talking about other cryptos which surely sometimes might be what we want to do, then it is probably a good idea to specify in some kind of way what we mean or if we are just speaking generally.

For me, I am pretty serious about NOT necessarily suggesting the same strategies in regards to various shitcoins, and there is a kind of timing and strategy element that I consider to make buying that crap a lot more time and information sensitive, and sure there are people who actually believe that they can apply DCA principles to various shitcoins, but the way that I think about DCA, buy on dip and HODL is that you need to have a pretty decently strong conviction regarding the long term (and fundamentals) of the project, and personally, I don't see any shitcoin that would have such characteristic - even though I do understand that there are some other people who actually do arrive at differing assessments than mine, so if they have those convictions regarding whatever there shitcoin, then they could apply these strategies, at least from my perspective (and I don't presume to speak for others in that regard).

My bad, I should bound myself with Bitcoin but ain't happening. I wish I can replace the word crypto by Bitcoin.
Anyway, Thanks for pointing out and there is no doubt my affection towards Bitcoin and how much I connected with the HODL term. 

This thread is about bitcoin, so seems quite likely (at least to me) that the principles do not apply to other coins besides bitcoin, at least when I am talking about it.  Surely, I would not be suggesting the same strategy in regards to any of the shitcoins, whether ethereum, one of the bcashes, doge, or any other shitcoin, ICO, Defi bullshit or NFTs.  Fuck that crap, even if in terms of dollars they have been outperforming the dollar.  We're talking about bitcoin here in terms of buying on dip and HODL (and I keep throwing in DCA too.. which none of that applies to shitcoins, if that is what you mean by "crypto?").

Nice to read someone looking at truth and no matter you're buying buying at this range or not. Threw in a couple of money into BTC anyway. Money grew a couple of days ago and now it's dipping but still no regrets. Gain is gain but for hodlers there will no regret. Just expect to loose money if you are in the crypto space. I'm in the crypto space to make money and, i'm investing in the future not the present.

Hahahahaha

I was actually thinking about you, Wind_FURY (nohomo), and part of the reason was because you were saying the never below $50k quite fervently and even seems to me that you had already been wrong earlier.. but even as the BTC price went up to nearly $65k, surely that helps a lot in terms of making a price cushion, but even about a 23% cushion (the distance between $65k and $50k) is hardly anything in bitcoinlandia.  Yeah, people like to say this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah, and we know that historically we have had greater than 50% price corrections during a bull market, even though tards like to get stuck on 30% as if it were some kind of maximum BTC price correction, and yeah, there is a lot of hype in bitcoinlandia, and yeah there are BIG players and institutions that want to buy every dip blah blah blah, but those BIG players and institutions are not going to be strong enough to fight the trend - even if the trend might be merely temporary - but when such negative trend is happening, it is going to feel like it is permanent, just like every other correction that may well be emphasizing FUD and nonsense and exaggeration etc etc, and we are also NOT really going to know when the correction is over.

I know that I am a bit of a broken record regarding what to say to family and close friends in respect to what seems to be somewhat differing views and approaches to the matter.

Almost always I am telling people to get the fuck into bitcoin ASAP and figure out some kind of system that is going to work for them in terms of not only figuring out their own financial circumstances (which largely is a problem for a lot of people to even get started in bitcoin because they have pretty shitty financial circumstances), and if they can get past their personal financial circumstances, then they can establish some goals in terms of the stake that they want to achieve in BTC using tools of DCA, buy on dip and HODL.. which largely is to start accumulating BTC ASAP within their own personal circumstances.  I also will assert that they are responsible for their own investment circumstances, so don’t come crying to me if they invest too much or gamble or whatever they do not figure out a level of BTC investment that is good for them.  

So in that regard, I give hardly any shits about the BTC price, even though I will agree with you that there is a bit of a subconscious element in me in regards, to having some reservations in terms of any kind of aggressive BTC investment plan that I may recommend when the BTC price has gone UP a lot in recent times, so in that regard, I would probably emphasize the buying on dip portion rather than either the DCA portion or the front loading possibility… though all of these have to end up being balanced with their personal circumstances, which remains their responsibility to assess (not mine – which I like to frequently point out).




Hahahahaha

You should know that I have hardly any clue, except my sense was that you were prematurely calling bottom levels or support levels that hardly make very much sense if we had a BTC price rise of 5x to 6.5x within 6-8 months (depending upon when such measurements were made).

We also know that BTC can sometimes go into a kind of punishment mode too, in terms of going UP without coming back down, so maybe it there would be a decent amount of Uppity, and even if we ended up getting up to $70k or $80k, there could be some sub $50k corrections that might last a bit of time or just end up being quickie corrections.  

From $70k to $50k would be around a 30% correction, and from $80k to $50k would be around a 38% correction.  

In my thinkenings, neither of those levels of correction (30% to 38% or even greater 50% or more) would be out of the question, even though some peeps want to emphasize baloney theories about this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah.. that are nearly pure theoretical rather than how relatively “free” markets really tend to work (and I would suggest that bitcoin does seem to fit pretty well into a relatively “free” market categorization.


To me, it seems that you are contradicting yourself when you assert alternative theories (or back up theories), and sure it does not seem to be a problem to attempt to maintain varying scenarios in your head, and then if some certain facts play out, then your future projected scenarios would thereafter reflect those new set of facts (even if you had not expected those new facts to play out).

Maybe part of the problem is to assign too high of probabilities to scenarios that you consider to be quite unlikely, so you go so far as to express what you perceive to be highly unlikely scenarios in terms of absolutes rather than for what they really are which is highly unlikely.

Actually, I am also of the opinion (which kind of agrees with you) that we should not be spending a whole hell of a lot of our brain power in contemplating theories that we estimate to be highly unlikely, but surely when they end up happening or even some other variation that is NOT quite as extreme, at some point we do have to recognize and appreciate that we need to adjust a decent amount of our whole perspective once either the less likely scenario ends up playing out or some lesser version of such scenario that we had calculated as NOT being too likely.


For sure we have been in buying on the dip territory, ever since about $55k (15%) and surely at various points lower than $55k, and yeah some peeps might prefer higher dip thresholds before they recognize that the dip is worth buying, but we should not want our greed to get in the way when there may well not be further dippenings.. and of course, perspectives regarding what is enough of a dip will vary depending on how much BTC that we already have… In any event, so far we have had a 27% dip from about $65k to $47,500, and sure we might get more dip in this cycle, but we might not, too.  

There does seem to be some decent momentum for more down, but we can really never know when the down is over, exactly.

If you hardly have any BTC, then you wait at your own peril.   In other words, when you are attempting to get to your accumulation numbers, there may well be an emphasis to just buy regularly and DCAing on a regular basis, but if you have some BTC already, then you might be employing various levels of buying on dips, and if you have a decent amount of BTC, then you may have the luxury of more aggressive strategies that largely require a BIGGER level of dippening prior towards triggering your buy finger.

Edit:  fixed quotes