Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 603. (Read 122370 times)

That's not true at all. Very few people expected things to play out like the previous cycle. That's only become a common opinion very recently. People were extremely bullish in the $6,000 range and most expected the bull market to emerge from there. They expected a much shorter bear market with much less downside than 2014-2015. And they were wrong.

Even your own sentiment displays this: you say "there was no reason for the bear market this time to last this long" so you yourself expected it to be much shorter.


Why would you assume such things? You don't have any evidence for that. I'm not only talking about people posting those predictions either, but the overall atmosphere of despair at the time.

I don't just measure sentiment on the forum either. I use long/short data on Bitmex and Bitfinex to gauge how bullish or bearish traders (who put their money where their mouth is) are. I frequent trading groups where people share chart ideas and I have trader friends who I trust aren't "spreading FUD" to me, and I tap into their sentiment. Social media as well. I stay aware of where we are in the media hype cycle and what talking heads are telling the mainstream.

Not everything is just "FUD." Complaining about things like FUD and manipulation is a sure sign of someone who doesn't read markets very well....

But this brings us to the question that this guy @ jazmuzika217 did:


let's look at the year 2017:


the price is $19,000 and it drops to $17000 and the person thinks it is the dip, then the person buys the $17000 thinking it's the dip, but next day the price drops back to $14000 and another person thinks that  $14000 is the dip and buy in the $14000, but two days later the price drops to  $11000, and another person thinks that is the dip and buy in the $11000 and 5 days later the price falls again to  $7000 and another person thinks is the dip and buy in the  $7000 and next day the price drops to  $6000 and another person buys in the  $6000 thinking that is the dip and month after the price drops to  $3000. all are left with big losses because they thought they were buying in the dip. and people may think that they will hold and can recover their money back in the future, but no one can guarantee that someday we will see the price to reach the $ 19000

Being a contrarian is a good thing most of the times, but didn't work out well back in 2017. Almost every $1000 increase was seen as the next top, and the reason for most contrarians to believe it would crash was that people (i.e. dumb money) were so excited and bullish that we would reach much higher levels.

The main reason for me not to sell so early on in 2017 is that I am a firm hodler, because a lot needs to happen for me to start selling coins. I don't really see it as an investment, it's what I consider digital Gold that offers me financial freedom, which I am not going to sell, unless the market has gone so crazy high that I can no longer resist selling a portion of my total stack.

You are not wrong about your advice which is the best, but you know that everyone has a limit, people can’t keep buying at every dip, and they can only buy at a particular dip and HOLD for future. It pays to really HODL ones coin, but fiat limitation is what is incapacitating some people.

So what I normally advise some of my friends in crypto too, is to also learn to trade, once they learn to trade, whatever profit they are getting through the trade should be used in buying more coins or BTC at deep, that is the only way I feel people will be financially free and have the capability to invest and buy coins at every dip they have the opportunity to witness.

A positive and effective way of thinking even though not many people choose it. The waiting psychology has made many people miss good opportunities to earn profits, so they will wait and wait.

i disagree.
in fact i have seen many cases that when everyone expects the same thing, that thing always happens. for example take the last year. there was no reason for the bear market this time to last this long but it did. why? because everyone (or basically the majority) were convinced that there is a "cycle pattern" to bitcoin which should be exactly like 2013.

also you shouldn't confuse what people say online with what they really think. there were thousands of comments online saying price will fall to $1000-$2000 but that was never what they really "thought". they were spreading FUD while they knew it is not going to go any lower that is the reason why it didn't go lower apart from the strong buy support.

There's no timeline for when we should wait for the perfect time of price gradual pumps to initiate. If you wanted to grab the opportunity of saving cheaper coins at your wallet, you can do it through buying at your own freedom. Nobody will force you to do that, unless you're too aggressive without analyzing the situation. Yes, the market remained unpredictable until such time greener days will again put back as norm. Buying every dip is an assurance for the future market recovery, so taking more waiting time definitely the biggest challenge ever to make before experiencing success.

Don’t buy on every dip, because you can’t know if the price will dump again. Buy when you’re done with your analysis and already have your target profit. I buy right now because I want to have at least a short term profit, itd better if you increase your holdings when the price dumps dipper. We want to have a coin at a cheaper price but if we wait too much, we might miss the chance of buying now.

You cant actually know when to pump or dump, my question is, until when you wait when that dump will happen?
For me, anytime you can invest then wait if your profit was there then it's up to you if you cut your profit. You can't exactly know the possible happen in the market because that is not predicted. Here is my advice, invest and wait for your gain.

Invest on every dip but its hard to see a more cheaper price now because the price are already started to pump. Its a wasted opportunities for those who don’t invest during the price of $3k level with bitcoin, I’m guilty fot this one since I was not able to get some funds before. Now, all i can do is to wait for another dump price or force myself to invest now.

The way to know the dip is by pattern like a number sequence, you go on the low but a rising low and hence it is bullish even if its lower then recent action; so long as its higher then the previous low over the longer time period.    The market reacts strongly in the shorter term but the longer term trends are like steel struts that frame the intraday action.     Ditto the highs, each is slightly higher and this is all bullish or can be drawn as a channel.  

I will see if I can conjure up a chart, sadly I dont have my old chart because it was alot neater.     I was told once a good trend can be explained with crayons, good I hope so because thats all I got.



So its messy but I'm trying to outline the backbone to this trend started in Feb with a pattern of rising lows.    Now we elevate and it becomes more tricky to judge imo, ironically its also more popular now at a higher price I think


I think this is possible if we react badly to 6500 and also some bad news perhaps, a combo effect.   

How can we exactly know if the price really in the dip? I know most of you buy altcoin when you think its alrealy in the dip but then aftee you buy the price must go down again. Buying every dip is a good move because you can earn a good profit by just holding it then wait for the price back to normal.

I want to buy in dip because it's affordable and  I can buy more that to high price. Some of cryptocians do that and in crypto that's the best way if you can buy in highest price wait the dip then buy it. I think there's no problem about buying in every dip as long you manage well.

You dont have to hold indefinitely.   The advice of buying on the dips is totally sensible, buy into the most negative pricing within what could be a longer term bullish trend.   But also you could take profits on the peak pricing opposite to the dips.
Buy the dips sell the peaks, hold just some of the profits is more conservative advice and hope to have the good sense to realise a strategy as sound as that because it will reduce risk and maybe improve profits

That is a very wise step to take in a volatile market, while keeping our coins in our investment for a long term purpose; it is not a bad thing if we still follow the market in its movement like you said which will still benefit us more.

This is what most short term trader do, and this is why we should not panic at every price decrease we see, if people sell, the market will definitely experience a decrease in price of BTC because of this type of activity but will not take too long to experience its increase back. So rather than lamenting every time about when bitcoin will hit bull run or not, we can just continue to do what you advised till the time comes.

When everyone expects the same thing, the opposite usually happens. This is a case in point. In December/January, almost everyone thought lower prices were coming. So naturally they sold. Once everyone sold there was no more supply left in the $3,000s so the price started rising. And for the past couple weeks, we're now seeing all those sellers and shorters buy back after seeing the market move against them.

This is why I'm a market contrarian and why I'm always trying to measure peoples' sentiment.

that is the question that you will always ask and there is never any answers for it and yet you have to ask it.
the only thing that can be done is "speculation"! meaning when price is at $X you start analyzing and try to predict whether there is any chance of more drops or not. and you have to do that ON YOUR OWN instead of reading what other FUDsters are saying about price drops to dumb levels like $2000!
then if you came up with a low chance, then that price is the bottom and you should buy with confidence.

Its not a good idea to buy in every dip, you don't know when is the time the price will bounce back, so maybe you will need a long time to make profit, and if you buy in every dip you will need huge capital, its better to follow the trend and find the moment to buy, don't recklessly buy every time the price fall down, it will be hard to make profit using that strategy

Question is where is dip? When bitcoin was on $3.1K then few people's had predicted it would go $2K. And I think lot of people's were waited for that. Same thing repeating on every zone. Determine dip isn't really easy task. That's why whenever you are able to buy just buy it. I really didn't waited for dip really. Still if I have fund then I will think current price is current dip.

We barely recovering from the longest bearish market in history, there's nothing to tell if it's going to end sooner or if its going worst deeper like last time. there's no one can tell If the dip today will not gonna go even too deep tomorrow. but if you think the dip will not gonna go down any further then its up to you whether you gonna buy or not. If the price will goes up after you buy then you made a right decision if not then don't blame anybody but yourself.