Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 66. (Read 121870 times)

I don't know if they learn their lesson.  It is like dumb ideas are embedded in their brains and they cannot stop doing the same thing that does not work.  Wind_FURY's a great example of this idea of waiting to buy the dip, and he keeps repeating it, even though he should realize from his October 2023 experience that his waiting to buy the dip did not work out for him very well.. but he still believes it, practices it and spouts it out as if it is a great and broadly applicable idea that works, especially for poor people.

Part of my problem remains his emphasis that poor people need to do something like this, which seems to make even less sense for poor people to use waiting as their investment strategy.

Personally, I think that part of his problem is a kind of mixing up of the meaning of disposable income and mixing up the idea of investing money that you cannot afford to lose.  So he is actually investing with money that he needs rather than what he can afford to use, so it is mixing up his cashflow management because he is likely using money that he needs rather than money that is extra.

Surely, I understand that there are poor people around the world who barely have any discretionary income, so it makes it hard for them to invest into bitcoin or into anything else, and truly folks who don't have disposable income should not be investing, yet how else are they going to get ahead?  They have to figure out ways to increase their income and/or to cut their expenses.. .. which truly if they are used to living hand to mouth and never having any savings or investment at all, if they end up being able to invest $520 ($10 per week) into bitcoin for a year, and then all of a sudden it goes up 2x or 3x, they won't be able to resist except to tap into that money, which might make it nearly impossible for them to ever get ahead if they cannot both invest into bitcoin and to let their investment ride for 4-10 years or longer.


I agree that is another problem with letting the cash build up, and maybe even worse for someone who hardly has any bitcoin.  On the other hand, if such person already has a decent stash of bitcoin, then maybe it is not as BIG of a problem to let the cash build up, even if they end up using the cash on something else.. .. but yeah, if their real goal is to be building up their BTC stash, they might not realize how much disadvantaged they are becoming by not making the commitment to just buy BTC regularly rather than letting the fiat stash build up and run risks of getting tempted into using such cash for some other non-bitcoin purpose..


Yep. it is true that the DCA buyer is quite likely going to end up with a higher average cost per BTC as compared with the successful buyer of the dip, yet there are some circumstances in which the BTC price does not dip to the levels of the intended buy, so then that person who is waiting gets stuck in a trap of waiting and waiting and if the BTC price goes up, there could be questions regarding if it might become more practical to raise the waiting level BTC price to that such buying on the dip becomes more likely to fill.  So frequently the buying on the dip becomes way too tentative and way too whimpy, and not really reinforcing buying practices that will also contribute towards more enthusiasm and interest in studying and learning about bitcoin rather than passively waiting and not doing anything for potentially weeks, months and very extended periods of time that might even result in psychological blockages in regards to the value of holding bitcoin that might even contribute to feelings of prematurely selling rather than ongoingly buying to reinforce beliefs in bitcoin.

Sure, the ongoing buyer may likely run into another problem which is running out of money when the BTC price is dipping, so there could be some value for the ongoing buyer to hold some value aside for buying on dips so that he does not feel as bad when the BTC price drops and he might not have any money remaining to be able to buy more.


Yep. They happen quite frequently in bitcoin, and we might not know when they are going to happen or how to exactly to prepare for them, yet when they happen, the best place to be is "in" rather than "out."  It is like the example of BTC price moves to the upside happen about 10 or so days each year, and if you are not into bitcoin on those 10 days (that are not known in advance) then you lose most of your gains for the year.  In other words, you gotta be in it to win it, and also you should always make sure that you are prepared for up, even if you might choose to sell some or to fail to buy or to wait, you should also consider that whatever decision that you make that is taking away from your preparation from up, nonetheless, are you still sufficiently/adequately prepared for up at all times, just in case?  Each of us are responsible to answer that question for ourselves, and if we fuck up, then no one is going to rescue us. We are responsible for our own actions that include our failures/refusals to act.


Yep. time in the market tends to be much better than timing the market, and so whenever we are making our DCA buys while we are accumulating BTC, we buy BTC with the belief that it is good to get in and to get more BTC. Personally, I think that there can be some times in which it takes a while for the BTC price to work itself out, and so there could be extended periods of time in which our portfolio holdings are in the negative, yet I have my doubts that there are many folks who are in the negative after a few years of ongoing DCA.  Yeah, sure the more problematic portfolios would have been the ones who made decently large BTC purchases towards the top of the BTC price range, and then his subsequent DCAs at lower prices were not enough to overcome the earlier lump sum buys at higher prices, so there surely can be some BTC portfolios that might take a while to get back into profits, even after several years of ongoing BTC buying.   

Most of us also recognize and appreciate that there are no guarantees in BTC that it will end up being profitable, so we likely consider bitcoin as an asymmetric bet to the upside in which the most that we can lose is 100%, so in that regard, we should be choosing our BTC investment size in accordance with our weighing of these various considerations as well as considering our other 8-9 personal factors.

This is actually once again translating into time in the market > timing the market. I mean sure somebody will always get lucky and then argue that waiting was the superior choice, but then false conclusions could be drawn because that person might think it was smart to wait. Instead it was lucky that it turned out to be successful. As your example describes, those hoping to go down from 26k to maybe 15k only to then see BTC go to 73k probably learned their lesson.

Another question is if someone has a weekly budget (DCA), but instead decides to wait for some mysterious reason that BTC could go down further, will that person be disciplined and put the budget aside to accumulate a potential lump sum for a later entry point? Will the weekly budget during the waiting period be consumed for other, irrelevant stuff?

That's why time in the market could outcompete timing the market even at seemingly unfavorable prices. If someone says they invest $100 per week only if BTC goes below 40k and they don't invest for 10 weeks because it took until then for BTC to go below 40k, then the question is whether the money is still there that was supposed to be invested into BTC via a DCA method. If instead that person bought $100 BTC all the time and it went sideways, but now goes to 65k, it is still a gain of a little less than 20%.

I am a strong believer of the "time in the market" approach. And this perfectly goes hand in hand with DCA. The only question someone has to answer for themselves is whether they believe in the technology and its long term potential or not. All the number crunching as to how much the return would be if instead of 55k someone enters at 40k is a waste of time. Again, the August 2023 - March 2024 example is only one of many.

So far, time in the market + DCA held true. Of course you could always zoom in on a time window and see that it did not work out, but that's kind of manipulative to your own detriment. Truth is that BTC with its up and downs performed extraordinarily well. And after all, even if BTC does not go to the moon within a year or two and someone is accumulating all the time, there is is still valuable BTC in the wallet.

Theirs no one that invested in Bitcoin without acquiring the knowledge or experiencing the method other people apply for the investment, for you to make profit for investment of Bitcoin you have already know the difference between long-term investment of Bitcoin and short-term investment of Bitcoin, so if you don't know these two things I believe that you will not make profit from bitcoin investment, so what I notice that make people to lose in bitcoin investment is miscalculation and greedy, this is the things that makes people to lose fotheir investment.

I think this can be confusing for newbies, as an uninitiated investor will never invest directly in Bitcoin. Because a person will be willing to invest only if he has the knowledge to invest in the beginning.
 And this will be the positive point for new and old investors to invest in DCA method.  Because both new and old investors can get success following this method, it is possible to invest in this method for a long time. But the more risk-taking capacity is created among investors, the more bitcoins they can hold in the long-term. 
Because the DCA method is the key to success in investing in Bitcoin, it is proven that those who have held Bitcoin in the past and up to the present time will only reap massive benefits in the current period.

Investing without knowledge is like an empty barrel, it's useless.
Still, when we want to start investing, we must know the basic knowledge about bitcoin, how good the future of bitcoin is, and how bitcoin works, if it feels suitable and understands then you can invest because you already understand bitcoin.

Except about bitcoin technicalities, then you don't need to understand this is usually used by developers.

Before starting, of course we must prepare ourselves, such as stable finances, long-term planning, always ready for emergency funds, prepare mentally, and make sure you can be consistent with bitcoin investment because there are so many ways to start including the DCA strategy.

I disagree with you here. Finance is a general need for both new and old investors and no one would want to start an investment if he does not have capital. What is the essence of starting an investment when you don't have a fund? What a new investor needs which is important at that entry level is a basic knowledge of Bitcoin investment without that they are bound to lose their investment at that early age.

Let me tell you something before you go ahead and make mistakes in life even if I do not have the right to advise you financially. But understand this fact, don't start any investment whether Bitcoin investment or not without figuring out how to go about the investment. For a better understanding, you need to know the nature of the investment after your capital has been realized.

Every investor needs a primary knowledge of the kind of investment they want to get involved in, at least know the ups and downs of such investment and not only look at the brighter side, although for Bitcoin investments inasmuch as you can be able to buy Bitcoin and HODL you don't actually need much knowledge about it as you can be learning and knowing more after you have already invested. Even if you acquire the necessary knowledge you want to know about Bitcoin without starting up an investment all you have learnt will just be like having a degree without a Job or an establishment. You have the knowledge but what will propagate your success in future is not there.

 There are a lot of people who succeeded in their businesses not because they had a complete knowledge of such business but because they were doing the business and learning some things they don't know and even hired people who did the job for them then in the process they themselves got exposed to the things they needed to know. Most of the things that has set many people backwards in life is trying to know everything about an investment or business they want to start up of which they always have the feelings that the knowledge they've gotten is not enough and before you know it they began to lose interest in it.

Though you are correct, one must at least have the basics knowledge of what he or she is venturing into, it's as important as making the investment itself. it's more like the foundation to what will be the result of your time and resources. if you just into any investment believing that knowledge will come latter you're probably at the very beginning of your failure. this a lot of people will never tell you.

Accumulating Bitcoin when it is dip is not wrong for it gives an investor more opportunities to accumulate enough Bitcoin but always waiting for the dip before accumulating Bitcoin is a wrong strategy for it will make an investor not to accumulate more Bitcoin because such investor always wait for the dip, the dip should be an opportunity to buy more Bitcoin instead the DCA strategy is recommendable for it make you to accumulate Bitcoin either weekly or monthly regardless of the price and hodl for long.

It seems that I was making a different point than you.  I think that my initial question was whether you were regretting not buying in August/September/October 2023 during such time that you were stating that you were expecting more down (and BTC's spot price was below the 200-WMA for much of that time too... prior to the late October rise from $26k/$27k to its March 2024 ATH of $73,794.

I suppose that it bears repeating that I surely don't have any problem with the idea of potentially buying more when the BTC price is at near or below the 200-WMA, and those kinds of strategical buying could potentially play more for folks who had already been in BTC for a while, so they have presumptively accumulated decent amounts of BTC.

For the newbie investor, it may well not matter so much exactly where the BTC price is, at least for maybe a whole cycle or maybe even a cycle and a half or longer - depending on how much BTC s/he had been able to accumulate in light of his/her annual expenses and/or standard of living.  Of course, when a newbie investor starts to build into a more regular investor and perhaps has build his/her BTC portfolio to such a size that it is more than a year's expenses, and maybe even 2-3 years of expenses, s/he is going to have more liberty (or perhaps justification) to change his/her BTC accumulation strategy to perhaps become more discerning in regards to the price and even perhaps consider whether to diversify out his/her investment portfolio into other assets (not necessarily referring to shitcoins, but maybe to equities, properties, businesses, commodities, bonds, cash/cash equivalents).   

There is no exact correct path, even though there are probably some preferred practices, including that I think that newbies likely are going to be way better off to just be spending a lot of time just strictly accumulating BTC through DCA for 4-6 years or more rather than getting caught up in regards to trying to figure out BTC price moves and the extent to which dips are going to happen or going to dip further or not. 

By the way, in August, September, October 2023, the BTC price spent much of that time $25k-ish to $27k-ish.. which would have had been between 0% and 10% below the 200-WMA, since in the middle of September 2023, the 200-WMA was right around $27.7k. Instead of advocating buying, you were advocating buying the dip, and that is part of the point that I was attempting to make.  BTC prices were already low and already below the 200-WMA, and you were suggesting people wait for more including suggesting that there were decently good odds that lower $20ks would be revisited, so in that sense you were not buying nor advocating for buying but were advocating for waiting... which you yourself said that you were doing during that time...

and the reason that you were doing it was because you were poor.. that was the dumb and inadequate reason that you gave about wanting to get more bang for the buck.. blah blah blah.. which results in greed that was not justified and did not play out well for anyone who did not have many coins or were low coiners at the time, and it may well did not even work well for you, even though you have had much longer time accumulating bitcoin, but still you like to employ waiting strategies rather than ongoing buying strategies, and I question whether your ongoing desires to employ waiting strategies has even served you as well as an ongoing buying strategy could have had served you better.

In the end, of course, you are free to do whatever you like, to advocate whatever you like, including advocating waiting and buying on dips, and others here may well not agree with such strategies, especially for newbies who are still in the earliest of stages of building their BTC stash, which may well even last more than a whole cycle to really build their BTC stash to a meaningful amount that might justify their modifying their BTC accumulation approach to some other less regular kinds of accumulation, such as buying on dips or other waiting rather than ongoing buying strategies.


I consider the period between June 2022 and October 2023 to have had been mostly below the 200-WMA, even though sure there was a period between about April and July 2023 in which the BTC price went above the 200-WMA, but even then the BTC price still stayed pretty close to the 200-WMA for that whole period of time.

As for me, I am in a bit of a different position as compared to most other people, since we likely should be considering that way more guys here are way more in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation, as compared to where I am at (since I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014.. but still continued accumulating in 2015 and 2016). 

And, guys can ONLY be so aggressive when they are newbies anyhow.  They can invest 100% of their discretionary income, as long as they don't make any mistakes with it and otherwise have other good cashflow management practices in place that includes maintaining back up funds... yet they could get themselves into trouble if they start to employ leverage merely based on their recognizing BTC prices to be in historically low price territories.

You seem to want to suggest that there would have had been some kind of waiting to get into bitcoin that might have had taken place, so that between June 2022 and October 2023 (you say March 2023), they would then deploy all of the fiat that they had been holding back in order to invest in BTC during that time, but then you were still suggesting to be waiting presumably for lower $20ks between August and October 2023.. which sure, maybe you had already backed the trucks up and loaded up between June 2022 and March 2023, which might work o.k. for someone who already accumulated BTC, but it was not really any kind of a good strategy for anyone just starting out in BTC during that time.  Sure, anyone getting into bitcoin during June 2022 and October 2023 would have had been better off to have had started out BIG during that time, even though surely a decent amount of that time had a lot of negative ideas in the air about bitcoin.

My own personal system in 2022 involved buying on the way down from the mid $60ks until about $35k or so, and then when the BTC price dropped below $35k in early May 2023, i realized that we were no longer in a bull market, so I spent some time rearranging some of my buy orders between $30k and $20k to allow them to go lower than they had previously been set, and so then by the time we got to June 2022-ish, most of those buy orders had been filled, and so I was largely running out of money to buy more, especially below $20k, so I had to regroup again and even to start to figure out new sources to inject more cash and to start to employ a kind of DCA strategy during those sub $20k times, and I did not have a lot of money to work with.. so there surely can be a bit of difficulty to run out of money as the BTC prices drop and continue to drop, and you are going to suggest that guys go all in during those kinds of times, when no one has any money, but you are going to suggest that the correct strategy would have had been to make sure to hold back money to be able to buy below $20k, and really the 200-WMA was round $22k at that time, so many folks who had money had been spending (buying) on the way down, so there weren't very many folks who still had money to keep buying on the way down, but for some reason, you are smarter than everyone else and you have money to continue to buy when others don't?

I don't know why you prefer to buy at the dip when you know that buying at the dip is not the best strategy for a new investor who has just started his bitcoin journey or who is yet to start because it will make them become low coiners after a very long time since nobody knows if the dip may come or not. It is better that a new investor who has figured out how much he wants to use to invest in bitcoin from his discretionary income starts right away with DCA method so that he can keep buying regularly weekly or monthly consistently and persistently for 4-10 years and above, instead of waiting for the dip.

Buying at the dip is always by luck and for those investors that their bitcoin portfolio has reached a certain level amd have prepared for the dip. A new investor whose DCA is ongoing will also benefit from the dip when it comes because he will also buy at the dip price. Waiting for the dip is not a healthy practice and is not ideal for beginners because they will lose many opportunities in the market to increase their bitcoin portfolio fast.

Investing in bitcoin doesn’t mean you won't set aside money for other purposes outside bitcoin investment, being focused on investing is the goal and since it’s a long term investment there is always room to keep accumulating either by waiting for dips or DCAing, doing this doesn’t mean you can’t live a normal life and take care of yourself.

Reserved funds are different from investment funds and they are mainly used to cover unexpected expenses and unforeseen costs at emergency times so we don’t have to refer back to our investment and take money from there. Reserved funds are as important to help maintain our investment plan and I think they should be separated from investment funds that way it will be easy to manage them both.

I think we should be talking about buying the dip, hodling and how to improve our investment and not try to deviate from the main title, Although it’s good for beginners to know that knowledge is key to successful investment. I believe most people here are aware of that already and we should rather share information about how to manage our funds and keep investing in more dips or any investment strategy you adopt. Any bitcoin investment that is not well planned and has no aim will is likely to fail at some point or the investor may be forced to quit due to market volatility that’s why every investment should be well planned.

Any investor that lump sum and the price of bitcoin dips and the investor is worried an out the dip, he should not bother to lump sum again but use the DCA strategy. This is the reason why a new investor should not use lump sum to start his bitcoin journey if he doesn't have plans of regular DCA weekly or monthly buying constantly for a long time, because if he lump sum only ans price dips and remain there for long, the new investor might be discouraged because his bitcoin portfolio has depreciated in value.

DCA is very good to start your bitcoin investment as a new investor because you are buying bitcoin always irrespective of bitcoin price and when there is a dip, you are also taking advantage of the dip to buy more Bitcoin since your DCA is ongoing, instead of getting worried of the dip because he only lump sum. With that the new investor will not get worried because he is determined to keep acquiring more bitcoin overtime and stay focus on his bitcoin target. If he has extra cash, he can lump sum if he wishes to.

I agree with you @ Zacks5000, because it is Bitcoin we are talking about and not any other coins, waiting to have or gain much knowledge before getting started might lead to procrastination and at such many may end up not investing in Bitcoin, the logic should be get the basic knowledge and have that personal conviction that Bitcoin is a coin that worth investing, get the fucking started and figure out other things along the line, the DCA strategy has got it all as to this regards because it gives the opportunity of learning about the dynamics while already in it, mistakes can be made and corrections can as well be taken, most times getting experience becomes the best teacher, one can not really get much the of the knowledge by just sitting around the corner, prioritize your basic needs and investment within your available disposable income readily available for investment, think Bitcoin investment and think long term plans, these are essentials that can facilitate making an informed Bitcoin investment decisions.

Understanding is the right application of the knowledge one have, so one don't only need knowledge to be successful in any business but rather understanding. There are alot of  people who has knowledge about a particular thing but they don't understand how it works. Moreover not every project or business requires total knowledge before one can be able to venture into and no matter the knowledge one acquired it can never be enough or sufficient for example those who called themselves expert traders they still incur loss despite their degree of expertise even in Bitcoin investment, one can't know everything because the more you grow the more insights you have so why waiting to be grounded before venturing into it but it is advise or encourage you have basic knowledge before investing because that basic knowledge (foundation) is what will guide you sometimes.

Why with those random dates?

I said June 2022 to March 2023 - those days/weeks/months when Bitcoin was actually spending most of its time BELOW the 200-Weekly-SMA.


It was probably significant for you, but what was actually significant for buy the DIP investors were the months from June 2022 to March 2023. Those months were obviously THE Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP, and HODL for the current cycle.

Also know that, you can’t force yourself to be in a position of getting opportunity always and not utilizing them. The market will never make you know when it’ll fall in price or a big dip will happen for you to DCA and add to your portfolio. If you’ve already done your lump sum and you can’t afford to set aside another budget to continue DCA anytime an opportunity arise, don’t feel sad or be bothered. The value of your bitcoin at that time will be the same and what you’re looking for is the long term prospects of it, so the dips and fall in price shouldn’t bother you that much after you’ve done your investment using the lump sum strategy. You should also think that, what if the opportunity to buy low never came and the price you brought from was never tested again by the market? So they’re possibilities to this that we can’t control them, you just have to accept the facts of it the way it is.

In adjusting the investment journey, of course, many supporting factors are needed, both strategy, strong mentality and also our focus on buying Bitcoin. Regardless of how you respond to it, of course, for now DCA is a strategy that is better understood by beginners or those on the accumulation journey.
So how you interpret DCA will not have a big impact on our optimism in running investments, Isn't an increase in BTC ownership that we execute routinely going to grow our optimism about the investments we make.

Should DCA be juxtaposed with price volatility, while DCA is a strategy that does not look at the price when we execute it. DCA is not a backup strategy but the main strategy that we have implemented so far, if you want to switch strategies on your investment journey I think you have to think more clearly so as not to interfere with the investment you are making.

If DCA is run properly I think we will not miss or ignore any opportunities. But for you I don't know how you interpret DCA and run it in an investment for the long term.

Gaining full knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mater when it comes to Bitcoin investment when decide to keep on waiting to gain more knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin might be too dangerous the most important thing is to get started and when you are already in it then you will start knowing more or have more knowledge how Bitcoin investment works.

The best is to get started because the more you keep on waiting to gain knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin the more you miss the chances of accumulating more Bitcoin.

Seriously, if someone wants to be successful in whatever they are doing, they really need knowledge because knowledge is the key factor for anything they want to do, whether it is business or investment. So, it will be better for anyone to seek for knowledge before investing in Bitcoin, so they will know the right direction to follow. Some people lose their Bitcoin investments to scammers, not because of anything else, but just because they don't have the knowledge. Therefore, it is very important that we try to gain this knowledge before investing in Bitcoin.At the very least, we should try to have the basic knowledge before starting to invest in Bitcoin, and from there, we can begin asking for more knowledge to provide strong security for our investment.