Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 68. (Read 129524 times)

As time goes by I have almost reached 2 years or only need one more Quartel to be exactly 2 years that I have been through with bitcoin accumulation with DCA. Apart from that, it is true as you said that the price problem is getting high and getting higher in this two-year period. Since it dropped to $15k, that's when I started investing in Bitcoin with DCA. To sort the table, it might take me a day to compile the average entry per year that I have passed.

The adjustment of entry price certainly varies because DCA does not looking a price when the purchase period is due. but that's not a problem because I still follow up on it until I am satisfied with my btc ownership. So far there has been no increase that I have made, meaning to increase the purchase budget in the second year, as in the table you have shared. Especially in my principle, where I still like to maintain a more stable purchase cash flow standard because in terms of income there is no increase.

So, the important point that I take from the table you shared is of course our consistency in buying bitcoin. Starting from $71 to $152 for the next 8 years is something that might be quite good to implement if only we were supported by increasing income every year.

I see what you are saying, and I don't even disagree with you.  However part of the problem is that I am attempting to mostly presume that the increase in later years is not due to lack of aggressiveness or willpower, but instead due to being as aggressive as he can be and ONLY being able to increase with the passage of time based on either increasing income or decreasing expenses due to ongoing fruther practicalities rather than due to the guy being whimpy.

Sure there are some folks who are whimpy too, yet I was not necessarily presuming that the lack of greater amounts in the earlier years was due to such whimpiness.

And, surely any of us can attempt to make bitcoin investment projections that are as aggressive as we can make them in regards to attempting to frontload our investment into bitcoin, yet we can ONLY be so aggressive before we might devolve into gambling and/or devolve into putting too much of our finances at risk due to our inclination to want to frontload our investment, and then we end up with less bitcoin than we could have had based on our becoming overly aggressive and recking ourselves partially or totally.


I think that you are missing something in regards to the ongoing debasement of the dollar is going to continue to cause us to have more dollars.. and surely, I am not opposed to the idea of being as aggressive as we are able to be, including in the beginning and perhaps even engaging in a reasonable amount of leveraging... but we still have limitations in regards to how much disposable income that we have at any given time, and we cannot presume our future earnings into the present.. and yeah, it well could end up being true that we front load our investment into BTC and the BTC price shoots way up and the BTC price never comes back down to its earlier price possibilities.. so surely I am not discounting those kinds of possibilities. which further justifies any attempts that can be made towards frontloading the BTC investment as much as reasonable..


I think that your quotes are messed up.  You quoted me, and then you quoted someone else, but you did not say who.. so the reader is supposed to try to figure that out?

Regarding your comment on my chart, I already mentioned it is possible to create a variety of scenarios, including negative scenarios so that if BTC outpaces your negative scenarios you would still be happy.  I have no problem with that. 

I recall that when I started many of my base case scenario predictions dealt with a 6% per year increase in the bitcoin price, and so surely after a few years, BTC prices way outstripped my base case projections, but still ended up falling into some of my more pie in the sky projections.. so sometimes even way outperformance can leave us not sure about what to do if we have not adequately prepared financially and/or psychologically for the some variation of the scenario that ends up playing out.


First, reading 568 pages of thread seems like a lot of time, and hopefully they start investing before they get too caught up in preparing and studying and failing/refusing to actually buy some BTC.

Second, it seems that DCA does not really eliminate risk, but instead allows us to tailor our BTC  investment amount to our own cashflow situation (including making sure that we stay within our discretionary income).


Even if bitcoin is tradable, it does not mean that you should trade it, especially since it amongst the best of investment assets ever known to mankind (if not the best), so why would you want to trade something that is already a good investment?

Think about if your goal is to build wealth, and if you want to accumulate BTC in order to accumulate wealth, then why would you sell BTC in order to accumulate it?  Hardly makes any sense, unless you are selling because you believe that you can buy back cheaper.. .. but why would you take such chances if your overall goal might be to accumulate more BTC?  Seems to me that those who sell BTC with an expectation of buying back cheaper are lacking in focus and perhaps more greedy than they need to be in terms of complicating their own finances and psychology merely because they think that they are smarter than the market.. or they can see where the BTC price is going in the short-to-medium term. .which may or may not even work out  for them.

Sure, you can do whatever you like, it is a free world the last time I checked.. .. at least when it comes to your selling your BTC.. you are free to go down such path if you believe that you can beat the BTC accumulator and HODLer.. especially when considering longer timeframes of 6-12 years or longer..  Seems to me that if you are fucking around with trading, then sooner or later your luck is going to run out and you would have had been way better off just focusing yourself rather than fucking around trying to time a dip that might not end up happening... and you end up with way fewer BTC than you could have had and way more stress and wasted time and energies at the same time..

I only corrected the person how altcoins are very volatile and risky. I know all what you are talking about.

Then what is bitcoin if it is not tradable? You can hold bitcoin and you can trade it at anytime you want.

I understand the point you are trying to make but volatility of bitcoin has nothing to do with an accumulator because his goal is focus on having a big bag of bitcoin in his possession so whether the price of bitcoin skyrockets or falls it's not a concern to him at all. For me, someone with 8 year plan of accumulation seems too sudden unless for someone who would just want to recap and analyze his progress within that interval of time and not give that time frame just because of the idea they can sell by then. There's no need for aggressive accumulation if your cash flow increases, perhaps you can just increase your DCA amount a little then the remaining funds can be added to your reserved funds, the need for this is so that in a case of DIP you can acquire more bitcoins with your reserved funds. Someone who has a time frame target of their investment should be able to know how to apply various strategies when the need arises so that they don't miss some opportunities that may come along line.

When we are talking about Bitcoin it should be Bitcoin long term investment and not some trading stuff as Bitcoin is never a tradable coin.
It could be misleading when you say Bitcoin is better when trade, Bitcoin shouldn't be trade but invest for a long time purpose, with the DCA strategy of accumulating Bitcoin an investor can buy small small either weekly or monthly and hodl for a longer time and not to trade for a short time interval, an investor who accumulate Bitcoin and HODL for 4-10 years and above will definitely not regret trading or selling out his Bitcoin in a short while, as an investor our mindset should always be accumulate more Bitcoin and HODL for the future.

Btcalysis, this is no a trading thread and there is a trading section in this forum where you can discuss about trading. Trading mindset is not an ideal way for a new investor to start with bitcoin because you will end up wasting time and resources which at the end will bring regrets and frustration after running at big loss.

It is good that a new investor should not think about trading his bitcoin but to invest in a long term and hodli so that he will have enough time to buy more bitcoin regularly and build his bitcoin portfolio overtime. What will you benefit as a trader in future, excess losses if you don't stop trading. Investing in bitcoin for long will make you have a good size of bitcoin in future when bitcoin will be very expensive and that will make you proud that you didn't gamble away the resources that you had when you were younger by trading.

Invest, build and increase your stash for 4-10 years and above so that you can save your funds in bitcoin because inflation increases overtime and bitcoin is a hedge to inflation in order for you the keep the value of your funds and have an additional benefits for saving in bitcoin by enjoying the profit from your bitcoin investments, instead of buying an selling to buy back again. Is this what you will also be doing at old age when you will not have time to look at the market and it can lead you to early death if you try to trade when you are old.

But the bitcoin investor who is use to building, growing and hodli his investment will find it very easy to keep on hodli even at hold age because it does not need and professional act or stressful neither will it mess with your emotions. Start investing today and save your future so that you don't suffer at old age.

Trading is generally risky but bitcoin trading is better. Altcoins are easily manipulated. Let me show an example

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/10/09/iWDSJ.png

See how this coin was manipulated since 3 days ago.

The explanation JJG  gave is very helpful when it comes to planning for the long term especially with investment like bitcoin being flexible with your budget is essential.

In situation where your disposable income decreases you have to understand where you stand and plan according to your present situation by making adjustments that balances with your financial state at that moment. It always advisable,  Whenever  we we are earning higher or more we should always plan for situation like this,  by having a backup plan ( emergency funds) if such scenario occurs. Incase you find yourself in such scenario prioritize essential needs like food, housing and other utilities will be helpful and cutbyour expenses  in other to keep your investmentgoing. Look for temporary work or side hustle to earn, this can help maintain cash flow at time like this, it will help you  stay on track with your investment target if you really value building your holdings.

What provably they know is bitcoin is all about buying and selling. They didn't bother to know other possibilities that could able to give them huge chance to gain from bitcoin if they just use the best strategy and choices towards on how they deal with their bitcoin.

If they think about trading and gambling would give profits easily sooner or later they would realize that its hard to gain consistently especially that market changes so fast and there's no assurance on every bets they made on certain games or situation around. Most likely they would face a lot of losses especially if they do bad decisions towards their trading and gambling activities.

To bad for others that they realize late that holding is more better so hopefully some other people who want to start up will just find good advices then select long term investment with bitcoin rather than wasting their money and energy on gambling and trading.

And this is right, because there is constant inflation in the world and even the dollar is depreciating. Of course, banks in our countries offer each of us deposits in dollars, but they have very small interest rates, especially since the condition for storing is giving your own money to the bank.
Therefore, it is much better to invest in Bitcoin, and for both experienced and beginners, the best approach is to periodically buy without trying to guess the bottom of the price in the current period.

Nothing links gambling and trading in this thread or even near to DCA. All these are separate entities which should be defined in their own ways not anything related to Bitcoin investment.

It's an unhealthy advise telling someone to stick with Bitcoin when trading, deciding to trade with Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies issues same losses, nothing distinguishes the risk management, it all goes down to how the funds is being managed, using Bitcoin to trade does not stop you from losing as well. Anyone who is scared to lose should be focused on investing their funds in Bitcoin, either strategies are okay depending on the individual balance and how he understands the market.

even without reading the whole thread, a simple knowledge of what trading is and what DCA is would show that there's no point trying to create a comparison of any sort about Bitcoin investment with use of the DCA methord and gambling your funds through Trading.

Every two slide of this thread has given enough information as to why DCA is a great approach of investing in Bitcoin and anyone that's still following this thread and still thinks otherwise is either a full time traders that is still trying to come out from a believe system that he's stayed used to for a long time or is one that knows the truth but is not ready for long term investment and so creates reason to justify whatever believe system he's held in to. There can't be a better alternative than the power of compounding your Bitcoin through the DCA methord. Even when you're in a slight profit and after selling you earn above what you've invested, you still have to face the reality of two options which is iether to buy at a much expensive price when Bitcoin might have gone high or to keep on waiting for a DIP before eventually buying which might take too long to a point of spending off your capital. Which is now more safe to do? Put yourself in that kind of tight angle or overcome the urge of trading your investment and see yourself at a good profit in the future?

Hahaha, your right buddy! but its impossible to read the entire thread from the start to the end. One might just get into so many discussions and be confused. However, they should take a sneak pick of the DCA thread and see what they've been missing all along. DCA cannot be compared to Trading. Like the difference is obvious so anyone who would think of comparing them both has no knowledge of Bitcoin investment, and regret is what he should be expecting if he has already started his investment.

Emotional stress precisely.

We don't have to keep predicting and finding estimate of the price before accumulating. That is the main essence of DCA, we can choose to buy at any price as long as we keep buying. Keeping an estimate in mind may fails. As an investor who is excepting to buy only when your predictions kicks in place you may end up not buying at all if you don't get meet your actual prediction. Imagine a case where an investor wants to buy at 60k by next month, it looks realistic, yet the price may be above 60k by next month and he will end up not buying at all since its above his benchmark.

If eventually the market dips after buying aggressively it doesn't change a thing because it is expected that the investor is holding it for a long time. Its the same thing like buying through DCA and holding it for long. As long as buying aggressively does not affects the investor in anyway or his DCA then its not a problem at all. The market will retrace back with them and more profits would be made. One of the advantage of buying aggressively is that you will reach your goal a lot more quicker and gives an investor more space to set another goals or diversify.

I think those who compare DCA investing to trading and gambling may not have even the slightest understanding of this investment yet. I would instruct them to read this entire Buy the DIP, and HODL thread  thoroughly so that they can gain thorough knowledge about DCA investing (as it has been mentioned here hundreds of times that a newbie can start investing with little knowledge of Bitcoin and little money). But they are right on one point that trading can be compared to gambling as there is maximum risk and profit uncertainty in trading just like in gambling. Through DCA method to avoid risk and reduce stress, we commit to holding bitcoins for a long period of time by buying and accumulating bitcoins over a period of time using a fixed income source.

This is good
Been surprised is better than been dissapointed
I try to reduce expectations so I would feel more excited when my expectations are beaten.


What's the essence of DCAing in trading when you still going to Sell.
The aim of trading is taking quick profit not accumulating and really doesn't require implementing DCA.


That's why it was an hypothetical scenario.
We can make prediction of plan but there are many variables at play and to estimate some of these variables are kept constant.
Aggressive buying is a good approach I must say but what about the available disposable income isn't enough to cover for such aggressive buying
Or what happens when there's a strong dip after going aggressive?
Mindset comes in play, the weak sell some, some individuals continue DCA and others just go again more aggressive.
But I believe going aggressive always gives room in wanting to collect some profit early.
Just saying.

Surely the times when the cashflow are better, I think there is need to accumulate aggressively in regards to increase ones portfolio. because having an 8year plan of $50k investment required facilitating the accumulation process  since bitcoin is volatile, because if a person was not able to increase his accumulation in the 8years intervals, he might end up buying lesser amount of bitcoin. so sometimes the fuck you status could be arranged in somewhat a way that when there is an increase in cashflow, the DCA should be increased to buy more during its early stage when it's less than increasing the weekly DCA when the price of bitcoin is high. It is important to leverage on bitcoin during its early stage because 8 year ls certainly a long time for BTC to make huge changes.

What am trying to say in essence is that if there is an increase in cash flow maybe during the beginning of the fuck you status like the 2024 of $71 DCA. Surely the table maybe an inverse of maybe $152.19 DCA per week in the early days , which means the bigger investment in a weekly. And if the cashflow is has less then we can begin to invest in a way that it will balance with our current status of discretion.

Hopefully, none of us are claiming to know anything or trying to guess, especially short term BTC price movements, so if we generally have some ideas that bitcoin prices are likely to be higher 4-10 years or longer as compared to what they are today, and we also have a general expectation that the amount of the BTC price increases is likely to be at least better than the debasement of the dollar, then perhaps it would be better to have some allocation in bitcoin, including money that we don't mind tying up for 4-10 years or longer.

I doubt that we are really predicting, yet we can still try to figure out our position size in such a way that we realize that the most that we could lose is 100%, and so we just kind of hope it works out in our 4-10 year or longer investment timeline..and that we will be in better position for having had invested into bitcoin as compared to if we had not invested into bitcoin.


Of course we have a couple of changing variables, namely the amount of your disposable income and the expected change in the BTC price, and so I consider that I put a somewhat base case, and of course the table could be more granular such as twice a year or quarterly or even monthly, and surely there can be value in each of the cases, and you can get some general  ideas where you might be if your investment timeline might be 10 years but you can see if you are still on track after 2 years, 5 years, 8 years etc... .. so you have the amount that you put in and you have the uncertainties of how much BTC it is going to get you, too.

So if I put mmore of  base case, then you could have scenarios that are worse or way worse in terms of the BTC price, or higher or way higher in terms of BTC price, and your results are going to be different under each of the scenarios, and so surely once you create one table, then future tables become easier, and you could also create tables in which you link back to another field so that you change one or two things and then the whole table result change based on your one or two changes.


Sure your results are going to change if your disposable income gets worse, and so you want to try to be somewhat realistic in your projections, and if you really value building your BTC holdings, you may well may try to figure out how to have back up plans if you lose your main sources of income.  Of course, folks tend to want to make as much money as they can for as little effort as they can, but sometimes, opportunities are not very available in some areas or for some people.. so you should be attempting to be realistic in your projection, and if you have no ability to really expect to be able to increase your amount of contributions in accordance with the expectations of the table then you either need to make the table more conservative or to increase your employabiity and/or cashflow and/or decrease your expenses.

Some things are more feasible than other things, and if you are making an unrealistic table, then you are likely going to end up not meeting the expectations of the table, so probably you have to figure out what  you are going to put, and of course with the passage of time, the projection of the table can get further and further out, and you can adjust it both in terms of what has already happened but also if your expectations might change based on either positive or negative developments, and if you create tables with overly rosey scenarios without also considering conservative scenarios, then you are likely merely fooling yourself and so there is value in regards to not getting your expectations  up too much about things that might be outside of your control or your abilities to affect...and even if you have good abilities, you can sometimes still end up with some bad luck, too...so there is value in trying to account for those kinds of matters when you are projecting out scenarios, and perhaps starting with a base case projection and then perhaps creating alternative tables with better case scenarios and worse case scenarios.


My table gives the average for a whole year, so in some sense my table is not very representative of a lot of the ups and downs that might take place within any of the years, and so the more scenarios or the more granular that you try to be in your projections, then the more variations of tables that you might need to create in order to see how they might play out in relation to your own personal circumstances...while considering that some table projections will be more realistic than others, and also that there could well be periods that the BTC price shoots up 5x to 10x and then comes back down to close to where it was prior to shooting up, so the average for the whole year ends up being way less than 50% of the top prices for that period of time.

Yes, we know investing in DCA method is much less loss and less risk. However, if your friend makes such a comment, there are some similarities between trading and gambling. Because if gambling is played a few times then there is a possibility of becoming an addiction, and later on you will be interested in gambling, just like if you start in trading then you will be attracted to trading later, in that case you will lose money there. As we know, investing in Bitcoin is the most profitable compared to trading. If you start trading then start in bitcoin it will not let you face loss, but you will get profit from here especially use DCA it will help to reduce risk all the time. We know it's always better to use DCA as a smart investment.

The excitement that occurred in the US election was caused by both candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump openly declaring their commitment to supporting the growth of the Bitcoin industry in the 2024 presidential campaign. Regardless of who wins, Bitcoin price will benefit from the US election. Support for Bitcoin from regulatory changes and adoption at the government level and increasing interest among the public further strengthens the belief that Bitcoin can be a profitable crypto investment option. This can create an opportunity for Bitcoin to break through higher price levels and open up new opportunities for investors to continue growing.

Bitcoin has become an important issue that cannot be ignored in the context of the upcoming election, the positive attitude shown by the government towards Bitcoin and supported by various other important events such as the halving that occurred last April will pump the emergence of a bullish pattern in the fourth quarter. Optimism should always arise in Bitcoin investors regarding the long-term prospects because the potential for price increases is very high in the future.

This is what I really like. because I find it difficult to organize in detail if our planning is for the next 10 years. In your explanation it is quite good especially when our cash flow improves we can increase the budget in the following year compared to the year we have gone through. It seems like this is a pretty good example with a budget that can be invested in bitcoin either $50k routinely with a target of 8 years or with a lower $25k with a target of 5 years.

I also agree that sometimes a person's income can increase every year and cash flow can also be bad. But if cash flow is bad or we lose our permanent job because we are fired from our company, what is the right step to take at that time.

Regarding pricing, it might be different because we also cannot predict the price of bitcoin for the next 8 years. It could possibly go up to $500k because supply is limited.