Of course we have a couple of changing variables, namely the amount of your disposable income and the expected change in the BTC price, and so I consider that I put a somewhat base case, and of course the table could be more granular such as twice a year or quarterly or even monthly, and surely there can be value in each of the cases, and you can get some general ideas where you might be if your investment timeline might be 10 years but you can see if you are still on track after 2 years, 5 years, 8 years etc... .. so you have the amount that you put in and you have the uncertainties of how much BTC it is going to get you, too.
So if I put mmore of base case, then you could have scenarios that are worse or way worse in terms of the BTC price, or higher or way higher in terms of BTC price, and your results are going to be different under each of the scenarios, and so surely once you create one table, then future tables become easier, and you could also create tables in which you link back to another field so that you change one or two things and then the whole table result change based on your one or two changes.
As time goes by I have almost reached 2 years or only need one more Quartel to be exactly 2 years that I have been through with bitcoin accumulation with DCA. Apart from that, it is true as you said that the price problem is getting high and getting higher in this two-year period. Since it dropped to $15k, that's when I started investing in Bitcoin with DCA. To sort the table, it might take me a day to compile the average entry per year that I have passed.
Well one thing is looking at your own historical performance, and another thing is projecting into the future. If you don't have your exact numbers, you can just look at charts and get estimates, and even when you are dealing with personal details you might be better served to be more precise, including considering putting in your weekly buys or your monthly buys.
When projecting into the future, you don't need to be as precise unless you are trying to account for some specific kinds of things that you are expecting to happen in regards to your own finances or perhaps in regards to bitcoin price expectations. I frequently proclaim that we should be in a better position to tailorize our own circumstances rather than some of the outside factors such as bitcoin price and macro-economic happenings - yet it is understandable that even our own financial and psychological circumstances might have a decent amount of uncertainties, even though we are in a position to know our health, energy levels, our work skills and marketability, our family and/or business-related expenses.
We can even use some of the DCA threads to calculate average costs per BTC for various periods of time that we input the date.. like this one that shows the average cost per BTC
between December 2022 and December 2023.. which I can see that if I invested $5,300 over that time I would have had gotten 0.19596 BTC.. which I can see is an average about $27,046 per BTC (that is $5,300/0.19596).
The adjustment of entry price certainly varies because DCA does not looking a price when the purchase period is due. but that's not a problem because I still follow up on it until I am satisfied with my btc ownership.
Of course even if you don't know all of the dates with your own purchases, you can try to figure out the total amount that you spent and the total amount of BTC that you have accumulated, and therefore get your average cost per BTC. If you do not have very good records, then you can estimate, also this becomes more difficult for traders, and so there can be some value in trying to keep track even though traders (just like gamblers) will sometimes lose track and they may well have to just estimate how much they put in from the start of the period until the end of the period and try to figure out how many BTC that they had at the end of the period.
You saw with my earlier table that I had anticipated and increase of 10% per year in the amount of the discretionary income that could be spent on BTC DCAing, and at the same time, my anticipated price changes per year were somewhat estimations based on past BTC price performance, yet I was still trying to make them a bit more modest in regards to the anticipated extremes, so there could be some value in regards to trying to create a more likely scenario and then making one or two scenarios on each side. Once you start making scenarios you might not know when to stop, yet they are likely not going to make as much sense if you try to get too extreme with the scenarios, so you may well naturally gravitate towards the center or maybe you might want to become a bit more hopefully by preferring a bit more of a bullish scenario.. yet you will also likely see that the more bullish the scenarios, then the fewer BTC (satoshis) that you are going to be able to accumulate.
So far there has been no increase that I have made, meaning to increase the purchase budget in the second year, as in the table you have shared. Especially in my principle, where I still like to maintain a more stable purchase cash flow standard because in terms of income there is no increase.
Yeah. If there is no increase in income, then all that you have left is to decrease your expenses, and sometimes it is NOT practical to further decrease expenses. And surely there have already been a lot of guys who have been complaining about expenses increasing more than they are able to increase their income, so if that is the case, then there would be a lot of pressure on the ability to even continue the DCA amount at the same rate without reducing the amount.
So, the important point that I take from the table you shared is of course our consistency in buying bitcoin.
I thought that the important point is trying to establish realistic goals - goals that are within your ability to achieve. If you create unrealistic goals then you are likely going to underperform and disappoint yourself. Sure there is value in terms of being consistent and persistent, especially if you might place the accumulation of bitcoin on a relatively high prioirity level.
Starting from $71 to $152 for the next 8 years is something that might be quite good to implement if only we were supported by increasing income every year.
Many of us likely realize that the dollar (and other fiat) is going to continue to debase, yet surely there are some folks who might not get pay increases that are comparable to the debasement of the dollar/fiat, and surely some guys might be able to seek employment with higher pay, yet surely some guys might not be able to achieve those kinds of goals, so if they are not able to increase the amount that they put into bitcoin each year by the amounts that I showed, then they have to figure out more realistic numbers that better anticipate (predict) their own circumstances, and the numbers should be realistic in the sense of making goals that are achievable. It does not seem to be a very good motivator if you are setting goals that you are not able to achieve, and to me it seems way better to be setting goals that you can realistically achieve, even if there might be aspects of the goals that are quite challenging, but it still seems better to set goals that are achieveble rather than not and perhaps also attempt to exceed the goals, while keeping in mind that it is o.k. if you do not end up exceeding your goals.
