Can BTC go down to <$5k again now? - page 2.

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on February 02, 2021, 09:23:37 AM

Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

These threads come up all too often but the simple answer is yes. A range of pretty much anything could happen. When end of 2017 hit 20k everyone was saying no way it gets down to 3kish and well it did. So can it go from 40k to 5k yeah why not. If a bearish sentiment comes in and some of those large companies start liquidating their position on the way down it could fall rather quickly. Do I think it heads there personally no but to ask if it can....its bitcoin anything is possible

Anything is possible with bitcoin, by the time it is must to think about the previous bull market and the present one. It has got lots and lots of variation. Based on those factors there is very small chance of price to fall low to $5000. The previous bull market was something like a wave, and this time we experience a well stabilized market growth.

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Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

It is widely known that what was different back then and it was the pandemic, while the pandemic began to make headlines during December if I remember correctly it did not began to affect the stock markets until the last days of February and it took some time for the panic to come this market but when it did the crash happened, this was a golden opportunity to buy bitcoin that under normal circumstances would not have presented itself and I hope that you took advantage of it.

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Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

These threads come up all too often but the simple answer is yes. A range of pretty much anything could happen. When end of 2017 hit 20k everyone was saying no way it gets down to 3kish and well it did. So can it go from 40k to 5k yeah why not. If a bearish sentiment comes in and some of those large companies start liquidating their position on the way down it could fall rather quickly. Do I think it heads there personally no but to ask if it can....its bitcoin anything is possible

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Quote from: vintages on February 01, 2021, 06:19:57 PM

Even though there is a possibility of anything to happen in Bitcoin, I think going to the price of 5k is not possible, at least not now or anytime soon.
There might be whales, but have you consider the percentages of retail investors. They might invest heavily like the whales but their tiny investments has great impact.

I'm also thinking that the price of Bitcoin won't go down that much right now. Although the price of Bitcoin may go down a bit very soon but it will not reach the bottom like before. Even if it decreases a little, the price will continue to rise again very soon.

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Even though there is a possibility of anything to happen in Bitcoin, I think going to the price of 5k is not possible, at least not now or anytime soon.
There might be whales, but have you consider the percentages of retail investors. They might invest heavily like the whales but their tiny investments has great impact.

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5k is highly improbable, it barely did it in March with an unprecedented global events. Now there is normal amounts of weakness to work through, if that becomes a trend it leads lower to some extent but the evidence on this is still developing and we dont have the full picture yet

I'm watching 15m bars here and we are below 12hr and 2 day averages, so if it can recover that we get more positive action and simiarly the longer we stay below that. New lows this year helps the bearish case and so on.
Its wavering between the two possibilities as you can see so really not that negative for now.

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Quote from: skarais on January 29, 2021, 01:09:29 PM

Quote from: CODE200 on January 29, 2021, 11:08:14 AM

I doubt. The market price could continue falling but knowing how big the price is and how huge the gap between its market value at this moment and this market value, this would seem possible. But I won't disregard the possibility of such thing. Since the market in general is hard to predict, there is ofcourse a chance for its price to continuously fall if there will be things that would be a factor for such thing to happen. And let us hope the scenario won't be that bad because for sure, the market will be having a hard time to recover from such market price fall.

The factor most likely to bring bitcoin's price down to the extreme is the involvement of whales and institutional investor who sell all their bitcoin on a large scale. But in the near future I firmly believe that will not happen because the support of institutional investors has a significant influence on the current price of bitcoin.

So far, I am still very confident that the price of bitcoin will be much better and will not experience an extreme decline, because maybe investor has realized that the number of bitcoin on the market is very limited because 1/5 of the total supply has been lost from circulation and can no longer be traded. This will maintain their trust in bitcoin so that long term hold is their investment scheme.

The primary investors of this current market were said to be the whales and the institutions and there's no way they will just learn the number of Bitcoin in the market is limited, we are talking about a minimum of $1 million investment here. The time I checked they are aware of recent developments update before us.
Having said that, I also believe the Bitcoin market won't go down to $5K in the future despite the whales and institutions involvement (influence, investing or selling) cause most investors are after profit and when it blood bath market I expect Bitcoin price will go below $15K.

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Quote from: gabbie2010 on January 30, 2021, 08:02:06 AM

Quote from: Febo on January 21, 2021, 11:36:34 AM

Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

Can BTC go down to <$5k again now?

I dont think so. I dont believe can go below $10k ever again. Most likely it will also stay above $20k. Or at least if will somehow fall below $20k it will retrace back extremely fast. Impossible to buy unless you will have buy orders set at that price.

Bitcoin market Cap is huge and massive , it had enjoyed massive institutional adoption lately all these are the driving force of the price hence these are catalyst that will not drive the price to $5K, a lot of speculations that the price might experience a similar price action of 2017 but I disagreed with that predictions based on the fact that fundamentals which drives the price differs, now Bitcoin enjoyed massive adoption unlike before.

We cant really deny that this market had already different in terms of level of;
-Adoption
-Recognition
-Application

If we do compare back into those early years or even in 2017 then we can really tell the difference thats why some would really be
that confident on believing that the price wont really be hitting up below knowing that institutional funds had been flowing inside
but the fact that they arent involving for nothing.So anticipate for some huge sell-off.

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Quote from: Febo on January 21, 2021, 11:36:34 AM

Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

Can BTC go down to <$5k again now?

I dont think so. I dont believe can go below $10k ever again. Most likely it will also stay above $20k. Or at least if will somehow fall below $20k it will retrace back extremely fast. Impossible to buy unless you will have buy orders set at that price.

Bitcoin market Cap is huge and massive , it had enjoyed massive institutional adoption lately all these are the driving force of the price hence these are catalyst that will not drive the price to $5K, a lot of speculations that the price might experience a similar price action of 2017 but I disagreed with that predictions based on the fact that fundamentals which drives the price differs, now Bitcoin enjoyed massive adoption unlike before.

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Quote from: fillippone on January 29, 2021, 12:32:48 PM

Quote from: ourkid on January 29, 2021, 11:52:34 AM

What is the current S2F?

You can check by yourself at
digitalik.net/BTC

Also, you can learn a lot about this model on this thread of mine:
Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Hope it helps.

Oh fantastic! Thank you for the link, when I googled it I only found mostly articles explaining but no charts.

Appreciate the link

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Quote from: CODE200 on January 29, 2021, 11:08:14 AM

I doubt. The market price could continue falling but knowing how big the price is and how huge the gap between its market value at this moment and this market value, this would seem possible. But I won't disregard the possibility of such thing. Since the market in general is hard to predict, there is ofcourse a chance for its price to continuously fall if there will be things that would be a factor for such thing to happen. And let us hope the scenario won't be that bad because for sure, the market will be having a hard time to recover from such market price fall.

The factor most likely to bring bitcoin's price down to the extreme is the involvement of whales and institutional investor who sell all their bitcoin on a large scale. But in the near future I firmly believe that will not happen because the support of institutional investor has a significant influence on the current price of bitcoin.

So far, I am still very confident that the price of bitcoin will be much better and will not experience an extreme decline, because maybe investor have realized that the number of bitcoin on the market is very limited because 1/5 of the total supply has been lost from circulation and can no longer be traded. This will maintain their trust in bitcoin so that long term hold is their investment scheme.

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Quote from: ourkid on January 29, 2021, 11:52:34 AM

What is the current S2F?

You can check by yourself at
digitalik.net/BTC

Also, you can learn a lot about this model on this thread of mine:
Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Hope it helps.

ourkid

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Quote from: fillippone on January 29, 2021, 11:38:44 AM

Quote from: fullhdpixel on January 29, 2021, 10:56:38 AM

<...>
The major movements in bitcoin do not care about charts like these, they can move beyond 100k or under 10k and chart could say whatever it wants to say and people will ignore it and keep on selling to make it go under if they want to.
<...>

I do agree with you, but I think there is a chart every Bitcoin investor in the world definetly looks at: Stock to Flow.
In case we beach the 50% level in S2F we could see a massive, massive sell due to the failure of this model.
I am confident it will not happen, but for intellectual honesty I have to consider the scendaek

What is the current S2F?

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Quote from: fullhdpixel on January 29, 2021, 10:56:38 AM

<...>
The major movements in bitcoin do not care about charts like these, they can move beyond 100k or under 10k and chart could say whatever it wants to say and people will ignore it and keep on selling to make it go under if they want to.
<...>

I do agree with you, but I think there is a chart every Bitcoin investor in the world definetly looks at: Stock to Flow.
In case we beach the 50% level in S2F we could see a massive, massive sell due to the failure of this model.
I am confident it will not happen, but for intellectual honesty I have to consider the scendaek

CODE200

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I doubt. The market price could continue falling but knowing how big the price is and how huge the gap between its market value at this moment and this market value, this would seem possible. But I won't disregard the possibility of such thing. Since the market in general is hard to predict, there is ofcourse a chance for its price to continuously fall if there will be things that would be a factor for such thing to happen. And let us hope the scenario won't be that bad because for sure, the market will be having a hard time to recover from such market price fall.

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Quote from: fillippone on January 27, 2021, 07:04:58 PM

I just want to add you another reason why I see it difficult for bitcoin to fell below 10K, let alone 5K.
This following graph highlights the days where bitcoin stayed above a given level:

You can notice that when an arc is formed, the highest point where the count does not start again is around 100.
Being the last arc on the right, the one of days above 10,000, well above 100 days, I am afraid we won't ever see again that level.

I do agree that we will probably not see under 10k again, just like how we moved from 700 dollars to 20k dollars in 2017 and never saw under 3k again, that means there are prices we do not fall under and no matter how many times we crashed after that, we never saw under 3k ever again, it was always over 3k. Same applies here, I agree that we will not see under 10k from now on, even in many crashes that could happen in the future, we are going to see the price go up and be better, however that is not going to change one thing that is eternally true ; it will not be due to the chart analysis.

The major movements in bitcoin do not care about charts like these, they can move beyond 100k or under 10k and chart could say whatever it wants to say and people will ignore it and keep on selling to make it go under if they want to. I just agree to it because I feel like there is way too much bitcoin required to go under and with institutional investors holding, I doubt there are enough bitcoins to be sold on the market that quickly.

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Several explanations were provided by users why there is less chance of price reaching low to $5000. Myself agree with it, but we also need to understand the market of bitcoin. There is a statement the market changes were respect to the demand to supply. How effective is this, no one is precise with the data. There is growth beyond this demand to supply and same is with price crash. Based on this I'm sure the price will come low to $5000 someday.

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It will be bounced up and down like a yo-yo until it recovers all that schweet fiat debt underwritten by printed bills circulating out there.If it can reach 1k it can reach 10k.If it can reach 10k it can reach 20k.........up up up down up up down down blah blah Cool

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I just want to add you another reason why I see it difficult for bitcoin to fell below 10K, let alone 5K.
This following graph highlights the days where bitcoin stayed above a given level:

You can notice that when an arc is formed, the highest point where the count does not start again is around 100.
Being the last arc on the right, the one of days above 10,000, well above 100 days, I am afraid we won't ever see again that level.

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Quote from: ourkid on January 11, 2021, 03:49:56 PM

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

Absolutely nothing, instead btc is more prone to getting back to where it started from and even less if an institution decides to take on an exchange to favor their short opportunity which will be followed by other panic sellers (except if btc gets bought by another institution for cheap as that will maintain the price from falling so quick).

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