I have already made more than 0.02 BTC, and my bankroll is much, much lower than 1 BTC. Yet I have not gone bust... hmm... hmmmmmmmmm
Same as every Martingale variation - it works great until you go bankrupt.
Topic: Can you still believe aTriz words? Reopened, too many open questions - page 4. (Read 5752 times)
March 09, 2018, 06:37:20 AM
Same as every Martingale variation - it works great until you go bankrupt.
March 09, 2018, 06:05:09 AM
Incorrect, nice guess though. Wait for tomorrow
On win you keep betting 1 bit at 1.08x.
On loss you're beting 4, 20, 100 bits at 1.25x - trying to get the lost bit back. There is no magic there. Same fallacy.
How big is your bankroll?
Not very. And yes, no magic - just calculated risk. It is almost guaranteed that by tomorrow my profit will be 0.01-0.02 BTC higher than it is today. I am saying this openly and in public, and the proof is in the link I gave. Just see for yourself.
To make 0.02 BTC at 0.08 bits per bet you're gonna need > 200k winning bets.
And if your bankroll is 1 BTC you have about a 1/100k chance to go bust.
Is that your "calculated risk"?
I have already made more than 0.02 BTC, and my bankroll is much, much lower than 1 BTC. Yet I have not gone bust... hmm... hmmmmmmmmm
March 09, 2018, 05:50:25 AM
Quote
Side note: @theymos you banned me for doxing, but all I did was post the name of aTriz, which was already plastered all over the forum by him. It's not a dox if it's public info made available by him. Please clear this up
Let me archive this ban evasion.25. If you get banned (temporary or permanently) and create a new account to continue posting / sending PMs, it's considered ban evasion. The only exception is creating a thread in Meta about your ban.
It's amazing how you went from "verified by theymos" to "red trust from theymos" to "banned by theymos"!
March 09, 2018, 05:49:11 AM
It's not ban evasion, it's a ban appeal. I think I have been wrongfully banned and I'm appealing theymos's decision.
25. If you get banned (temporary or permanently) and create a new account to continue posting / sending PMs, it's considered ban evasion. The only exception is creating a thread in Meta about your ban.
Oh, sorry. I didn't read that. Apologies, people were acting very misinformed and I was itching to correct them... I'll go make a thread in Meta
March 09, 2018, 05:45:58 AM
It's not ban evasion, it's a ban appeal. I think I have been wrongfully banned and I'm appealing theymos's decision.
25. If you get banned (temporary or permanently) and create a new account to continue posting / sending PMs, it's considered ban evasion. The only exception is creating a thread in Meta about your ban.
March 09, 2018, 05:33:52 AM
You are right. However, it completely depends on your bank roll. If you have a BR of 1000 BTC and you run the script with 1 bit at a time, the chances of you ever going bust are nearly zero. You cannot possibly know the odds of me going bust without knowing my BR.
Risking 1000 Bitcoin to win 100 Satoshi can work for a long time indeed. Until it doesn't work, at which point you'll realize you risked millions for cents.Quote
Side note: @theymos you banned me for doxing, but all I did was post the name of aTriz, which was already plastered all over the forum by him. It's not a dox if it's public info made available by him. Please clear this up
Let me archive this ban evasion. March 09, 2018, 05:31:32 AM
March 09, 2018, 05:18:17 AM
March 09, 2018, 05:10:29 AM
At a 1.08 multiplier, with a success rate of 91.67%, you have a 50/50 chance to hit a red every 8 bets, making an average profit of (7*0.08)-1=-44%
0.9167 * 0.08 + 0.0833 * -1 ≈ -0.01 average profit, as is the house edgeJust spotted your post - had already made the corrections, but thank you nonetheless. Coming off a double shift with no sleep evidently impacts my mathematical abilities.
March 09, 2018, 05:04:47 AM
For anyone not familiar with the code, what this script does is the following:
Bets 1 bit at x1.08.
If you lose, doubles the bet, still at x1.08.
If you win, returns to the base bet of 1 bit.
Repeat
Many sites even have build in bots that do this for you. All designed to make you wager more, because your total wagered amount is the only thing the site cares about. The more you wager, the more the house earns.Bets 1 bit at x1.08.
If you lose, doubles the bet, still at x1.08.
If you win, returns to the base bet of 1 bit.
Repeat
Running it at a low multiplier is a terrible strategy when it comes to house edge: you wager high amounts for small profits! Doing the same with much higher multiplier gives you a much smaller house edge. I call this the Landen strategy, named after the guy who successfully used this for months at Rollin. See this spreadsheet. The win chance on each run is very high, that's why it can last for months if your bankroll is high enough.
Quote
It is laughably simple.
It's exactly what was to be expected. Some kid thinks he can beat the house with Martingale.Isn't that the first thing any starting gambler does? Start small, double when you lose, think you're really smart, and profit a bit?
March 09, 2018, 04:43:45 AM
At a 1.08 multiplier, with a success rate of 91.67%, you have a 50/50 chance to hit a red every 8 bets, making an average profit of (7*0.08)-1=-44%
0.9167 * 0.08 + 0.0833 * -1 ≈ -0.01 average profit, as is the house edge March 09, 2018, 04:40:27 AM
And here is a prettier version of the script,
let initialBettingValues = {
baseBet : 0.0000001,
baseChance : 91.851,
firstLossMultiplier : 4,
lossMultiplier : 5,
lossChance : 79.360
}
let nextBet = initialBettingValues ? initialBettingValues : "0"
let chance = baseChance ? baseChance : "0"
doBet =(win,currentStreak,previousbet)=> {
if(win){
nextBet = initialBettingValues.baseBet
chance = baseBet
} else if (currentStreak === -1){
//First Loss
nextBet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
} else {
nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
}
chance = lossChance
}
Code:
let initialBettingValues = {
baseBet : 0.0000001,
baseChance : 91.851,
firstLossMultiplier : 4,
lossMultiplier : 5,
lossChance : 79.360
}
let nextBet = initialBettingValues ? initialBettingValues : "0"
let chance = baseChance ? baseChance : "0"
doBet =(win,currentStreak,previousbet)=> {
if(win){
nextBet = initialBettingValues.baseBet
chance = baseBet
} else if (currentStreak === -1){
//First Loss
nextBet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
} else {
nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
}
chance = lossChance
}
I've also been watching her betting history and can confirm this is exactly the new script she is using. The only differences are you calculated the base chance and loss chance incorrectly. Accurate values are base chance = 0.99/1.08 = 0.9167 and loss chance = 0.99/1.25 = 0.792.
This, as previously, is just another modified Martingale. This one at least recovers your losses after a run of reds, but has the same problems as any Martingale, in that bets grow exponentially on a run of losses, leading to rapid bankruptcy.
March 09, 2018, 04:26:04 AM
March 09, 2018, 03:15:20 AM
Not very. And yes, no magic - just calculated risk. It is almost guaranteed that by tomorrow my profit will be 0.01-0.02 BTC higher than it is today. I am saying this openly and in public, and the proof is in the link I gave. Just see for yourself.
They key word here is "almost".And the big question is: what's your bankroll? It's very likely to go up a small percentage of your bankroll. Until you bust, as all Martingale will eventually do.
I obtained the exact same results from the same tool, copypasting in the script with no trailing newline:
I've had similar problems with online hashes when I tried to do that for md5sum. March 09, 2018, 03:11:33 AM
For those who aren't so great at deciphering javascript gambling scripts... I've coded a script for a "well known dicebot"...
It seems to have a SHA256 "similar" to: e9474064aaeb4d07689d80952adb4d785d318fcd43947b90ec25c12450876f50 *wink wink*
So, I estimate it's worth about 50 BTC! *cough* #makeMartingaleGreatAgain
And here is a prettier version of the script,It seems to have a SHA256 "similar" to: e9474064aaeb4d07689d80952adb4d785d318fcd43947b90ec25c12450876f50 *wink wink*
So, I estimate it's worth about 50 BTC! *cough* #makeMartingaleGreatAgain
Code:
let initialBettingValues = {
baseBet : 0.0000001,
baseChance : 91.851,
firstLossMultiplier : 4,
lossMultiplier : 5,
lossChance : 79.360
}
let nextBet = initialBettingValues ? initialBettingValues : "0"
let chance = baseChance ? baseChance : "0"
doBet =(win,currentStreak,previousbet)=> {
if(win){
nextBet = initialBettingValues.baseBet
chance = baseBet
} else if (currentStreak === -1){
//First Loss
nextBet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
} else {
nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
}
chance = lossChance
}
March 09, 2018, 01:55:08 AM
This is brilliant. Call that a gambling script shitcunt? Really I mean really? You are more stupid than a meth head on a 10 day binge who is being offered free bags of meth.
Shitcunt isn't good enough, I have tried to think up a new nickname and even dedicated 4 minutes of my life to the task.. Alas I was laughing to hard to think clearly, so we will have to stick to shitcunt for now. You really are a stupid shitcunt thinking you can come to a form where there are some seriously clever guys and try to pull this shit.
Does this mean You will finally stop gracing us with your presence now shitcunt ?
Shitcunt isn't good enough, I have tried to think up a new nickname and even dedicated 4 minutes of my life to the task.. Alas I was laughing to hard to think clearly, so we will have to stick to shitcunt for now. You really are a stupid shitcunt thinking you can come to a form where there are some seriously clever guys and try to pull this shit.
Does this mean You will finally stop gracing us with your presence now shitcunt ?
March 09, 2018, 01:39:09 AM
For those who aren't so great at deciphering javascript gambling scripts... I've coded a script for a "well known dicebot"...
So, I estimate it's worth about 50 BTC! *cough* #makeMartingaleGreatAgain
Code:
basebet = 0.00000001
basechance = 91.851
firstLossMultiplier = 4
lossMultiplier = 5
lossChance = 79.360
nextbet = basebet
chance = basechance
function dobet()
if (win) then
nextbet = basebet
chance = basechance
else
if currentstreak == -1 then
-- first loss
nextbet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
else
nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
end
chance = lossChance
end
end
It seems to have a SHA256 "similar" to: e9474064aaeb4d07689d80952adb4d785d318fcd43947b90ec25c12450876f50 *wink wink*basechance = 91.851
firstLossMultiplier = 4
lossMultiplier = 5
lossChance = 79.360
nextbet = basebet
chance = basechance
function dobet()
if (win) then
nextbet = basebet
chance = basechance
else
if currentstreak == -1 then
-- first loss
nextbet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
else
nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
end
chance = lossChance
end
end
So, I estimate it's worth about 50 BTC! *cough* #makeMartingaleGreatAgain
March 08, 2018, 11:18:36 PM
March 08, 2018, 10:21:40 PM
Is this the script worth 50 BTC?
Yes, that was the claim.
Although I would imagine there's probably a good discount available now. 100% off sounds about right.
Well, 50 BTC what she effectually claimed her damages would be if aTriz released the script. She was actually running a thread selling it for—what was the per-copy price, 0.99 BTC? (IIRC, off the top of my head.)
So, anybody want to buy? I am now selling pirate copies. Instead of a discount, I am pricing in Btrash—which is LOL because I don’t have a Btrash wallet. Send 0.99 BCH to 1111111111111111111114oLvT2, and I will give you a secret pirate link to where you can download the wonder-script!
Though the thing I don't understand is why does the script warrant a dox if it's so simple?
She was gonna dox aTriz regardless. Hell hath no fury like a scammer scorned. She didn't even wait for the script to be posted.
She was vengeful against aTriz, for some (un)reason. I wonder why not so much against me. —Oh yes, she has no leverage against me.
I will reply by referring to the etymology of “draconian”. Anyway, I insist she desist. And decease. LOL.
I suggest that from the recent events transpiring in this thread, we can conclude:
- Alia is even worse than a scamgirl: Alia is evil, actively malicious and sadistic.
- The script is even stupider than “stupid equations”.
- aTriz has no programming knowledge whatsoever. (Sorry, but—LOL.)
- Most questions on this thread have been answered, the primary one for which it was reopened being the existence, identity, and content of the script. What’s left to wrap up?
- I can probably resume (cough) normal posting habits. Sorry, folks who watch me. Time to put the drama of the Alia affair on the back burner—again.
March 08, 2018, 10:08:07 PM
Incorrect, nice guess though. Wait for tomorrow
On win you keep betting 1 bit at 1.08x.
On loss you're beting 4, 20, 100 bits at 1.25x - trying to get the lost bit back. There is no magic there. Same fallacy.
How big is your bankroll?
Not very. And yes, no magic - just calculated risk. It is almost guaranteed that by tomorrow my profit will be 0.01-0.02 BTC higher than it is today. I am saying this openly and in public, and the proof is in the link I gave. Just see for yourself.
To make 0.02 BTC at 0.08 bits per bet you're gonna need > 200k winning bets.
And if your bankroll is 1 BTC you have about a 1/100k chance to go bust.
Is that your "calculated risk"?
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