Topic: [Cancelled] Big Time Coin selling 90 GH/s bitcoin mining devices - Batch A - page 2. (Read 12629 times)

I am going to have to revise the timeline due to the following unforeseen circumstances:

1) Lack of qualified job applicants. 
2) Avalon has not moved any of the bitcoins sent to the pre-order address, has not communicated the cause of or length of delay for batch #2, and generally may be late in getting out the open-source specs, sample chips, and final chip orders.

As such, I will not be opening to pre-orders until, at the earliest,

1) I have received the sample chips, which should occur on or about May 15, 2013,
2) Avalon has released the PCB and FPGA open source reference designs, which should occur on May 1, 2013. 
3) I have an engineering/assembly team to consult with regarding production timeline and timeliness feasibility.

Once these things have happened, then I will revise the timeline and open up for either full pre-orders or chip deposits.

This is also my feeling. You definitely look like a nice guy and you are risking a lot there. I hope it all turn out to work good for you. But there is too much risk involved for a customer as BFL started shipping.

If you had some proof of design instead of just an idea and still to get the engineers on board it might be different, but I feel there are too many unknowns yet.

I wish you all the best & hope you really do come up with another option for us all, but if I was to pay your price for that spec I would want to know it's actually possible, given today's asic market. Faced with a pre-order situation I feel either Burnin or Avalons 2/3 mini-rig would be safer options.  

As a note (and from the comments here), I think most people would not be willing to risk the 75BTC upfront price.  If you considered a half sized unit you might see one or two more adventurous punters take you up.

I understand the desire for more hashes, but these are avalon chips and the most that you can fit into a 4U case with a 1000W psu with adequate heat dissipation characteristics is 90 GH/s which can be overclocked perhaps to 96 GH/s.  You see where BFL is using cases intended for the Single to house the pre-ordered Jalapeno.  You can't argue with the laws of thermodynamics, they are immutable.

ya, something 100gh/s and cheaper than others..September is a long way.. by that time avalon, butterfly, knc, asicminer will already saturate
the markets.. Speed and Timing, as you can see avalon is 1 year a head of butterfly.Avalon fab or factory goes 24/7 butterfly fab probably goes
8/5 a week or 6/5 a week  how to match those guys overseas.

A bigger machine is also an interesting idea. No matter what you do I really do hope you succeed. This takes some guts and the community is better for people like you taking a chance.

it appears you have 2 options. Reduce the price or make a bigger machine. I'd like you to crank up the specs and charge more per unit.

I am very interested and just sent you a PM.

In my opinion, many people will try DIY and not be able to build a working rig.  Since I will have staff on hand trained to assemble working mining devices from chips and boards, this is something I may be able to offer in the future, but it is doubtful that my staff will have much respite from assembling branded devices for pre-order customers.  So it is doubtful that I will be offering an assembly, spare parts, or repair service any earlier than September.  Selling chips and boards as kits to DIY folks is something I haven't considered doing because there are already others working on that as a project and I don't want to take on too much.

As to the difficulty estimates, they have consistently been worst case estimates, including my own posts on the subject.  One of the most thoroughly analytical forecasters, organofcorti, posted: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/02/910-asic-choices-avalon-update-3.html as recently as February 19, 2013 that the difficulty would reach 18 million April 1 and 33 million May 1.

We have seen these estimates fail repeatedly.  Is it because there are all the parts sitting around waiting to be assembled?  Or are there delays prior to delivery of components?  Hard to say.  It's all speculation at this point.  But even with the current worst case estimates of year-end difficulty, the BTC mining devices I am proposing should recoup their investment within 12 months, which has always been an acceptable investment in bitcoin mining as long as I've been doing it, almost 2 years at this point.

OP I thought about this some more. You should abandon the idea of creating miners (shipping in August) and instead resell the chips to DIY folks in the US, along with assembly parts, as soon as they enter your possession.

Since you have made such a large purchase, you may have an advantage over everyone else buying chips in smaller quantities. As evidenced by the other threads with groupbuys, there is a huge market for chips where the buyer doesn't have to purchase 10k at once, and where the chips are already being shipped to the US. That's your opportunity.  

Otherwise, why the hell would someone like me take the risks that you are outlining, instead of getting in on Avalon batch 4?  Surely that will be cheaper and more predictable than what you are proposing, since its based on actual current difficulty and faster (by comparsion) shipping times. Think about it, there is absolutely no reason for someone to take a chance on your plan given these realities and options.

Yea, its awesome to see someone willing to bet millions on this. The only issue with his plan that I have is that its obvious that if he had done even some cursory estimates into what difficulty will be in August, even with very conservative estimates, he would know that he couldn't charge 1/3 of what he is planning to. Avalon has already sold hundreds of thousands of chips. Assuming that they can get those to market (which this guy is also dependent on) and then even if Asicminer ships very few units, and BFL ships none, no one will see ROI based on his anticipated pricing and timeframe, and that's ignoring the extra competition that is coming, and the other risks to his operation.

^^ i will give him that. In poker we call it pot committed! Kinda sucks ... I actually thought this guy was a scam and it seems he is one of the few who maybe actually be genuine and has made an investment into the asic market .. I hope he fairs out ok..

I wish you luck sir. I personally think that your price is much too high given your expected delivery date and the current understanding of the market. But given the amount of money you have invested (and are yet still willing to invest) you do certainly seem committed.

Numbers are a bit high, but I think that's because he's invested in the idea already without having Engineers on staff.

I don't think he can make that deadline unless he hires now and finds a good Engineer or two. Even then that's pushing it, and he'll be falling late into the difficulty rise.

Your price to expensive ... degree of difficulty will increase and members will earn less .. if you half the price and meet june deadline .. you may get a chance!

Price is too high for that delivery date.  You need to rethink that.

The idea is to copy a batch 3 Avalon 4 module unit as closely as possible, with a lower overall cost, due to the absence of the legacy costs Avalon had to still recoup during batch 3 sales.

Avalon has 3 fans and two empty holes 

Only 3 fans while Avalon has 6? How does that work out?

>$100 per GH is about 3 months for 100% ROI NOW, but in August? Nah, pass.